The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[terranMarine]

Cautious observation is needed for China. China has massive, massive trade volume with the European Union, the United States and Japan. And this continues to increase , and will serve as an independent variable for China's continued neutrality in regards to this Russia situation regarding her political conflict with the West. China should utilize Russia for energy security, and continue to expand her horizon with her continued cooperation with the West and Japan , her greatest trade partners.

skills of balancing geopolitics is a lusty art to the eyes
One thread already mentioned China is ready to assist Russia and will continue to buy crude oil amid dropping price which ofcourse will benefit China as well. While China might need to be cautions, the same applies to EU and Japan especially if they wish to increase Chinese investments.

 

[TaiShang]

Russia to Halt Ruble Slide, Increase Energy Ties With China: US Expert
© RIA Novosti. Iliya Pitalev
20:47 20.12.2014

A weakened ruble and sliding oil prices will not undermine Russia's economy, says Marin Katusa, the Chief Energy Investment Strategist at Casey Research. The 'harsh reality' is that the US shale producers have already been hurt much more than the Russians.

MOSCOW, December 20 (Sputnik), Ekaterina Blinova – A weakened ruble and dropping oil prices will not undermine Russia's economy or trigger riots in the streets of Moscow, believes Marin Katusa, author of the New York Times bestseller, "The Colder War," and the Chief Energy Investment Strategist at Casey Research.

"Russia is not some Zimbabwe-to-be. It's sitting on a surplus of foreign assets and very healthy foreign exchange reserves of around $375 billion. Moreover, it has a strong debt-to-GDP ratio of just 13% and a large (and steadily growing) stockpile of gold… Russia will arrest the ruble's slide and keep pumping oil," writes Marin Katusa in his article "Why Russia will halt the ruble’s slide and keep pumping oil."

Sliding oil prices will provide Russia with some new opportunities, the author points out. Low oil prices have resulted in boosting energy ties between Russia and its big customers, particularly China. It is expected that Russia and China will switch to ruble/yuan trading, Marin Katusa notes, adding that it will "further undermine the dollar's worldwide hegemony."

"Putin always thinks decades ahead, and any short-term loss of energy revenues will be far offset by the long-term gains of his economic alliances," the investment strategist emphasizes.

© SPUTNIK/ MIKHAIL KLIMENTIEV

Putin: Impossible to Say For Sure What Happens to Oil Prices

On the other hand, plummeting oil prices will help Russia to overcome the so-called "Dutch disease." Mr. Katusa points to the fact that high oil prices tremendously lowered Russia's manufacturing sector's share in the country's economy in the past 15 years (to eight percent from 21 percent).

Weaker ruble and lower oil prices will trigger the development of Russia's agricultural and manufacturing sectors, deems the expert. In addition, ruble's weakness together with the ban on food imports from the EU will obviously lead to "an import-substitution boom" in the country.

Marin Katusa drew a historic parallel between Russia's Central Bank's decision to raise interest rates up to 17 percent and the similar measures carried out by US Fed Chair Paul Volcker, who fought inflation in the US in the early 1980s. "It worked for Volcker, as the US stock market embarked on a historic bull run," and it will work for Russians, Mr. Katusa stresses.

© REUTERS/ MAXIM ZMEYEV/FILES

"In any event, don't expect any deprivations to inspire riots in the streets of Moscow," writes Marin Katusa, "The people trust [Vladimir Putin]. They'll tighten their belts and there will be no widespread revolt against his policies."

Meanwhile, "the harsh reality" is that the US shale oil producers have been hurt by sliding oil prices much more than Russians. If the oil prices drop further, fracking will become "uneconomic" and many US shale firms will be forced to shut down. It will be disastrous for the US economy, notes the expert, since shale industry's growth "has underpinned 100% of US economic growth for the past several years."

 

[Foggy_Bottom]

Why do people perpetually equate all Western media as the the mouthpiece of the US?? Why if some western press say something about the Russia/China relationship you turn around and automatically say the US is "desperate and fearful".

Talk about acting flaky. If you mean the "US Press" then f*cken say it. Don't pull this "West" sh*t.

Peter, you are expecting people who have no clue about what a free press means, to make a distinction between some articles written by the western media and US official stance?

I'll give you a quick synopsis of our stance. We welcome it! It's like a gambler betting on the wrong horse, or soon to be a bankrupt one. China and Russia won't hold back any US involvement or any of our plans in the Asia- pacific theater.

We handled the Soviet Union & this is par for the course for us. And we know Putin, he is too egomaniacal to play the subservient role in the relationship for too long. This is like a Hollywood marriage and we are going to enjoy the show.

 

[TaiShang]

Peter, you are expecting people who have no clue about what a free press means, to make a distinction between some articles written by the western media and US official stance?

I'll give you a quick synopsis of our stance. We welcome it! It's like a gambler betting on the wrong horse, or soon to be a bankrupt one. China and Russia won't hold back any US involvement or any of our plans in the Asia- pacific theater.

We handled the Soviet Union & this is par for the course for us. And we know Putin, he is too egomaniacal to play the subservient role in the relationship for too long. This is like a Hollywood marriage and we are going to enjoy the show.

Putin knows Obama inside out. LOL.

 

[bolo]

You do not make sense.

US also attempted a color revolution in Russia but failed. That's why they moved from Moscow to Kiev in their secondary attempt to proxy regime change and succeeded.

China's barren lands, miraculously, can buy out the entire Vietnam with their GNP output.

More like one city like HK has higher output than all the Vietnam put together.

 

[Beidou2020]

China is now a capital exporter and has a market that is bigger than the US in goods consumption. This means the US will lose its influence big time as other countries have more options. China has also been providing technology to the world it is self-sufficient in, which means the US will lose more influence in that area too.

US needs to have a monopoly on markets, investment, financing and technology. As countries like China has large market for countries to sell into (goods, services, energy, metals, agriculture), Chinese companies invest globally, Chinese government and banks provides loans to anyone, countries and companies can access Chinese capital markets for financing and China exports advanced technology, the US will find its dominant position weaken SIGNIFICANTLY over the coming years and its sanctions becomes highly ineffective.

China is one country that can completely dismantle the American web of power by ending the monopoly positions America holds. Once those monopolies are gone, American power will diminish.

 

[Beidou2020]

Rouble has recovered a lot. I think PBOC has been buying up roubles to destroy the speculators that have bets on the rouble depreciating.

 

[TaiShang]

Rouble has recovered a lot. I think PBOC has been buying up roubles to destroy the speculators that have bets on the rouble depreciating.

Beijing willing to assist Moscow
2014-12-22

A woman walks past boards showing currency exchange rates in Moscow, Dec 16, 2014.[Photo/Xinhua]


China's top diplomat is offering Beijing's assistance to Moscow, as pessimism is spreading about the uncertainties of the Russian economy.

With the Kremlin vowing to address Russia's dependence on oil and gas, more teamwork with China in non-energy sectors may help, but the key "lies in the hands of Moscow itself", analysts said.

Following the drastic drop of oil prices, the Russian rouble plummeted on Tuesday and has lost nearly 50 percent against the US dollar and the euro since March.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters on Saturday that "Russia has the capability and the wisdom to overcome the existing hardship in the economic situation".

"If the Russian side needs, we will provide necessary assistance within our capacity," Wang said.

Wang said China and Russia have been consistently supporting and helping each other.

Feng Yujun, a senior analyst of Russian studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, estimated that "the hardest time for the Russian economy is just kicking off, with the upcoming three years clouded by major challenges".

The researcher pointed to a strengthening US dollar, and said emerging economies including Russia will suffer more as money increasingly flows back to the US.

A major turnaround of the suffering economy "requires a range of measures to take effect", Feng said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday at an annual end-of-year news conference in Moscow that cooperation with China is one of the cornerstones of Russia's economic recovery and prosperity.

Zhang Deguang, a former Chinese ambassador to Russia, said Moscow has foreign currency reserves totaling hundreds of billions of dollars, and with such support the Russian economy "is still far away from being totally paralyzed".

Li Jianmin, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, suggested that China's assistance be provided through mechanisms including the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS.

Earlier this month, when Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev met in Astana, Kazakhstan, with Premier Li Keqiang, they agreed on enhancing cooperation in railways, infrastructure and the development of Russia's Far East region.

Loans, cooperation in major projects and participation in the domestic infrastructure investment in Russia are options on the table, Li added.

Qin Gang, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, told a news conference in Beijing on Thursday, "Please do not forget that China and Russia are highly complementary in the economic field, with broad areas and huge potential for cooperation."
***

The key word: helping each other.

 

[TaiShang]

China is now a capital exporter and has a market that is bigger than the US in goods consumption. This means the US will lose its influence big time as other countries have more options. China has also been providing technology to the world it is self-sufficient in, which means the US will lose more influence in that area too.

Indeed. Considering that China is the largest trading partner in the world, nations do have more options (a larger room for maneuver). That's probably why, despite all the attacks and conspiracies, countries such as Venezuela, Bolivia or Russia, are able to resist.

China is in a delicate position. It needs to remain a just power by offering assistance to oppressed nations, but at the same, it has to continue doing business with everybody in order to sustain the foundation of its economic rise. Without a strong economy, soft power means nada.

 

[NiceGuy]

Yeah, China should give more help to Russia, so Russian AF can deploy more Tu-160 jet bomber to SCS(east sea)

 

[TaiShang]

LOL.

 

[Hindustani78]

http://itar-tass.com/en/russia/769612
Russia
December 27, 18:03 UTC+3
The Russian Foreign Ministry said pointed out the successes of the Eurasian integration project, saying it acquired special dynamics in 2014

MOSCOW, December 27. /TASS/. Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is open for other countries who would like to join it, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Saturday in a comment on the main political results of the outgoing year.

It pointed out the successes of the Eurasian integration project, saying it acquired special dynamics in 2014.

The signing of the EEU foundation treaty on May 29 in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, and the launch of the EEU on January 1, 2015, laid a solid foundation for the rise of a full-fledged international organization that would have the necessary institutional framework.

The ministry recalled that Armenia was getting full-scale membership of the organization as of January 2, 2015, and an agreement on Kyrgyzstan's joining the union was signed on December 23.

About forty countries and organizations voiced readiness to sign agreements on a free trade zone with the EEU, the commentary said. "The EEU is open for other states."

The Foreign Ministry also noted intensive collaboration with Belarus in the format of the Union State. "Coordination of actions in the sphere of foreign policy, defence and security within the framework of the processes of economic integration, the deepening of collaboration in the social and humanitarian spheres" were all parts of routine activity in the context the Union State project

The commentary underlined the diversified relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan.

"The Russian-Kazakhstani treaty on good-neighborliness and allied relations in the 21st century is called upon to accelerate this relationship further," it said. "The document is adapted to match today's reality and the conditions of Eurasian integration and it it aimed at a joint rebuffing of the threats and challenges, which have sprung up in recent years."

Multi-aspect cooperation in various formats in the space of the Commonwealth of Independent States also saw intensive development.

"More than twenty treaties and guideline documents were adopted and the effective sphere of the treaty on the CIS free trade zone expanded after Uzbekistan had joined it as the ninth constituent country," the commentary said.

 

[Hindustani78]

Please move this thread in Europe and Russia.

 

[MarkusS]

Is this meant as a joke? lol

What does this "Union" plan to trade=? Vodka and good wishs?

 

[Hindustani78]

Is this meant as a joke? lol

What does this "Union" plan to trade=? Vodka and good wishs?

Seems here its more about Arctic region.

TASS: Russia - Russia may develop Northern Sea Route project jointly with Asian countries — deputy PM
Russia may develop Northern Sea Route project jointly with Asian countries — deputy PM

MOSCOW, December 26. /TASS/. Russia may develop the Northern Sea Route jointly with Asian countries , which are interested in the shortest route for supplies from Asia to Northern Europe, Deputy Prime Minister Yury Trutnev said at a conference on Friday.

“I suppose that it is not absolutely correct to develop the Northern Sea Route by Russia only. The project is huge and requires a lot of money. It does not only facilitate transportation from the Far East, but also from China, South Korea, Japan, and, correspondingly, our neighbors must have a chance to join this project if they are interested in it, but, obviously, Russia must hold a controlling stake,” he said.

The potential cargo transportation via the Northern Sea Route is estimated at 50 million tons per year.

It was earlier reported that Korea and Norway planned to increase cooperation in development of the new shipping route.

Last year, South Korea, with the support of Russia, for the first time delivered cargo to the south of the Korean Peninsula through the Northern Sea Route via the polar region.

The new shipping route can cut the voyage distance from South Korea to northern European countries by up to 7,000 kilometers from the 22,000-kilometer journey when using the conventional shipping route through the Indian Ocean.

The Arctic region, according to various estimates, has up to 30% of the world’s untapped reserves of natural gas and 17% of oil reserves.