Russian is resilient and they will come back as they have beaten off enemies throughout centuries.
The mongol defeated them and they defeated mongols.
The swedes defeated them and they defeated swedes.
French
German
Now... USA
Just that this time, they stand a chance to lose Kiev forever. And losing Kiev forever will be a pain to Russian. It is comparable to the Orthodox church losing Constantinople.
Kiev was an independent capital, although under Russian influence. But, as a divided country, at best, they will not have significant influence in the region. Besides, the threat of Russia will forever dangle over their head.
Not a bright future for them. US is thousands of miles away. Russia is just next door. And with Crimea gone, what kind of leverage they really have against Russia other than playing the Western proxy game?
I share the news below, but I should say that I did not like the doom and gloom rhetoric. Also, the repeated word "saving Russia" is kind of insulting. It appeared on China.org.cn, however.
Russia's choice: What lies ahead...
By Sumantra Maitra
When one is travelling, it is usually not hard to find or interact with Russian backpackers. There are various reasons for this. Russians don't travel as much as their European counterparts; the Germans, French and British. Russia also has a weak economy. And finally, an essential for backpacking, is having a Working Holiday visa, which is reciprocal and bilateral for countries which are signatories. So, it was a unique opportunity when I came across this young Russian twenty-something student, who I met in Auckland.
Her name was Olga (and I honestly didn't make it up, nor is it a stereotype, Russians do LOVE the name Olga for some reason), and she is starting a business diploma course in New Zealand soon. Being a journalist and a researcher, I couldn't pass the unique opportunity to talk to her about her country, the situation in Ukraine, politics and economics, and her experiences in interaction. It was a fascinating experience to find out the contradiction in her opinion, a window to the mind of an average Russian youth, venturing out in the allegedly hostile world where everyone hates Russia, and the secret yearning for material pleasure, having the simplest dreams like the rest of us.
She doesn't like Vladimir Putin personally. Being a more moderate, city dwelling, educated Russian, she knows the structural problems Russia is undergoing. But she respects him, for what he is, for being a strong leader.
Putin to her is God send, a man destined to restore the spirit and glory and pride of a civilization, that gave the world Gogol, Pushkin, Dostoevsky and Tolstoy; a country which is the birth place of Swan Lake by Tchaikovsky. From Rachmaninoff to Kasparov, from Gorky to Tereshkova, a land which contributed its fair share in any field around us.
She also however, in the same breath laments the lost opportunities in her country. She knows all too well that the Russian economy is doomed, and on a backward autarkic projectile. She is aware of the severe discomfort whenever she meets any European or Westerner, and prefers not to talk about the Russian annexation of Crimea, or the shooting down of the Malaysian airliner over Ukraine. She avoids talking about the first forced border change and annexation of territory in Europe since World War II, even while she vaguely tries to justify that by arguing something which we have heard all too often from any regular Russian news outlet, that Crimea is a historical part of Russia, the home of the Kievan Rus, and it was a shortsighted mistake during the Soviet times to let it be with Ukraine.
The severe loss of the value of rouble means that the Russian consumers and students now can't afford Western products. It is also making the lives of Russians abroad miserable.
But finally, what struck me as the most acute pain she faced in the entire forty five minutes conversation is the fact that she realizes, that Russia is an isolated and closed society, shutting itself off from the rest of the world, limiting severely the cultural interactions between Russians and everyone else.
So what are Russia's problems? Economists and political scientists will differ in their analysis. From a political perspective, Russia is suffering from an acute case of a "security dilemma."
During the high growth years of the last decade, Russia was a (re)rising hegemon. Its economy and military might comparatively restored, the Chechnya problem solved, and a part of the global market and the WTO, Russia was looking west.
But the rise of Russian military inevitably cracked open the deep fault lines, and Russia's smaller neighbors were paranoid. With the color revolutions, Russia also felt increasingly under siege, and started to take actions based on military might alone, with blatant disregard of the free choices of the region which it still ironically imperially calls as its "sphere of influence." The smaller neighbors, feeling threatened, turned even more westward, trying to balance Russia, which in turn made Russia even more paranoid.
Economists would argue that Russia is doomed due to structural reasons. For an economy of a great power, Russia is shockingly lacking in almost every aspect. The Russian economy is based on energy. It has no competitive advantage, it doesn't export anything worthwhile, its labor mobility and brain drain is outward, and its demographic growth negative. Russia is not a manufacturing giant like China, or a service-sector and IT giant like India. Russia is also not an innovation and start-up powerhouse like the United States and the Western world. There is no Russian Google or Facebook, nor is there a Russian Tesla or Reliance or Wipro or Mercedes, or PWC, or McDonalds, you name it. An economy which is not product, innovation or service oriented, solely relying on a single utility inevitably was doomed with or without political problems adding to the burden.
No matter how Putin tries to explain it to the world, the sanctions didn't kill the Russian economy nor is the West encircling Russia economically, it just hastened its demise. Russian rouble was doomed, because its entire economy was controlled by a corrupt handful of people, with a senile and craven internal system, and no matter how powerful they are, the forces of the market eventually got to them.
The challenges Russia faces are massive. In face of Western sanctions and a pariah status, Russia can only be saved by China and India. But in order for that to happen, it needs to take urgent steps. It needs to stop its international confrontations, which is making it embarrassing for both China and India to back Russia as responsible global citizens, just like Israel is increasingly becoming a burden for the United States.
The economic steps are more immediate. Russia should open its borders and remove visa delays for Indians and Chinese to live and work there. That would inject a fresh workforce, fresh investment, and frankly fresh blood. It should give tax benefits to Chinese startups and Indian companies to start business there, with a half local and half foreign work force of their own choice. It should start more cultural interactions and scholarships for students to study and settle in Russia, and most importantly, solve the chronic structural problems like endemic corruption and the high crime rate.
Will Russia do the abovementioned? It is not the job of an analyst to predict the future. But Russia should remember the historical lessons from Athens and Sparta. The two ancient powerhouses were locked in the greatest geo-political battle of their times, during and after the Peloponnesian war. Sparta increasingly turned inward, was hostile to foreigners and unwelcoming to immigrants, jingoistic, chauvinistic and revanchist. Athens was on the other hand, the exact opposite, a melting pot of immigrant traders and artists alike from across the globe; the earliest example of globalization. The contribution of Athens remains in arts, philosophy and science forever. It gave us Parthenon. No one, however, remembers Sparta, other than the martial spirit and the destructive wars it initiated. If Russia chooses the latter path, it will be a sad world for all the young Russians like Olga venturing out with little dreams in their eyes.
The writer is a foreign affairs journalist, and research scholar on foreign policy and neo-realism, based in New Zealand. He tweets @MrMaitra.
