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What Putin is not Telling Us: The Raid on the Ruble was supposed to be a Checkmate. It’s Not
By Pepe Escobar
Global Research, December 20, 2014

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Even facing what under any circumstances is a perfect storm; President Putin delivered an extremely measured performance at his annual press conference and Q&A marathon.

The perfect storm evolves in two fronts; an overt economic war – as in siege by sanctions – and a concerted, covert, shadow attack to the heart of the Russian economy. Washington’s endgame is clear: impoverish and defang the adversary and force him to meekly bow to the Empire of Chaos’s’ whims. And bragging about it all the way to “victory.”

The problem is Moscow happens to have impeccably deciphered the game – even before Putin, at the Valdai Club in October, pinned down the Obama doctrine as “our Western partners” working as practitioners of the “theory of controlled chaos.”

So Putin neatly understood this week’s monster controlled chaos attack. The Empire has massive money power; a great deal of influence over the world’s GDP at $85 trillion, and the banking power behind that. So nothing easier than using that power through the private banking systems that actually controls central banks to create a run on the ruble. Think about the ‘Empire of Chaos’ dreaming of driving the ruble down by 99% or so – thus wrecking the Russian economy. What better way to impose imperial discipline on Russia?

The “Nuclear” Option

Russia sells oil in US dollars to the West. Lukoil, for instance, would have a deposit in US dollars in an American bank for the oil they sell. If Lukoil has to pay wages in rubles in Russia, then they will have to sell the US dollar deposits and buy in Russia a ruble deposit for their bank account. This in effect supports the ruble. The question is whether Lukoil, Rosneft and Gazprom are hoarding US dollars overseas – and holding back. The answer is no. And the same applies to other Russian businesses.

Russia is not “losing their savings”, as Western corporate media gloats. Russia can always require foreign companies to relocate to Russia. Apple, for instance, may open a manufacturing plant in Russia. The recent Russia-China deals include the Chinese building factories in Russia. With a depreciated ruble, Russia is able to force manufacturing that might have been located in the EU to be located in Russia; otherwise these companies lose the market. Putin somewhat admitted that Russia should have been demanding this much earlier. The – positive – process is now inevitable.

And then there’s a “nuclear” option – which Putin didn’t even have to mention. If Russia decides to impose capital controls and/or imposes a “holiday” on repayment of larger debt tranches coming due in early 2015, the European financial system will be bombed – Shock and Awe-style; after all, much of the Russian bank and corporate funding was underwritten in Europe.

Exposure to Russia per se is not the issue; what matters is the linkage to European banks. As an American investment banker told me, Lehman Brothers, for instance, brought down Europe just as much as New York City – based on inter-linkages. And yet Lehman was based in New York. It’s the domino effect that counts.

Were Russia to deploy this “nuclear” financial option, the Western financial system would not be able to absorb a shock of default. And that would demonstrate – once and for all – that Wall Street speculators have built a ‘House of Cards’ so fragile and corrupt that the first real storm turns it to dust.

It’s Just a Shot Away

And what if Russia defaults – creating a holy mess out of the country’s $600 billion debt? This scenario reads as the Masters of the Universe telling Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi to create credits in the banking systems to prevent “undue damage” - as in 2008.

But then Russia decides to cut off natural gas and oil from the West (while keeping the flow to the East). Russian intel may wreak non-stop havoc in pumping stations from the Maghreb to the Middle East. Russia may block all the oil and natural gas pumped in the Central Asian ‘stans’. The result: the greatest financial collapse in history. And the end of the ‘Empire of Chaos’s’ exceptionalist panacea.

Of course this is a doomsday scenario. But don’t provoke the bear, because the bear could pull that off in a flash.

Putin was so cool, calm, collected – and eager to delve into details – at his press conference because he knows Moscow is able to move in total autonomy. This is – of course – an asymmetrical war – against a crumbling, dangerous empire. What those intellectual midgets swarming the lame duck Obama administration are thinking? That they can sell American – and world – public opinion the notion Washington (European poodles, actually) will brave nuclear war, in the European theater, in the name of failed state Ukraine?

This is a chess game. The raid on the ruble was supposed to be a checkmate. It’s not. Not when deployed by amateur scrabble players. And don’t forget the Russia-China strategic partnership. The storm may be abating, but the match continues.

Beijing willing to assist Moscow

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Foreign Minister Wang Yi [Photo/Xinhua]

China's top diplomat is offering Beijing's assistance to Moscow, as pessimism is spreading about the uncertainties of the Russian economy.

With the Kremlin vowing to address Russia's dependence on oil and gas, more teamwork with China in non-energy sectors may help, but the key "lies in the hands of Moscow itself", analysts said.

Following the drastic drop of oil prices, the Russian rouble plummeted on Tuesday and has lost nearly 50 percent against the US dollar and the euro since March.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters on Saturday that "Russia has the capability and the wisdom to overcome the existing hardship in the economic situation".

"If the Russian side needs, we will provide necessary assistance within our capacity," Wang said.

Wang said China and Russia have been consistently supporting and helping each other.

Feng Yujun, a senior analyst of Russian studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, estimated that "the hardest time for the Russian economy is just kicking off, with the upcoming three years clouded by major challenges".

The researcher pointed to a strengthening US dollar, and said emerging economies including Russia will suffer more as money increasingly flows back to the US.

A major turnaround of the suffering economy "requires a range of measures to take effect", Feng said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday at an annual end-of-year news conference in Moscow that cooperation with China is one of the cornerstones of Russia's economic recovery and prosperity.

Zhang Deguang, a former Chinese ambassador to Russia, said Moscow has foreign currency reserves totaling hundreds of billions of dollars, and with such support the Russian economy "is still far away from being totally paralyzed".

Li Jianmin, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, suggested that China's assistance be provided through mechanisms including the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS.

Earlier this month, when Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev met in Astana, Kazakhstan, with Premier Li Keqiang, they agreed on enhancing cooperation in railways, infrastructure and the development of Russia's Far East region.

Loans, cooperation in major projects and participation in the domestic infrastructure investment in Russia are options on the table, Li added.

Qin Gang, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, told a news conference in Beijing on Thursday, "Please do not forget that China and Russia are highly complementary in the economic field, with broad areas and huge potential for cooperation."
 
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China cant make a reliable jet engine yet. Without Russian's engine, China AF is just a joke.

I think that is a foolish and mundane thing to say. Never, ever underestimate the Chinese.

We are talking about China here, the Progenitor of East Asian Confucian culture. We are referring to a civilization state that has existed unbroken for 5 millennia. Not some miniscule , insignificant 3rd world state.

I agree on all points. Of the four points, I guess the second is the most important, and that's the underlying rationale for China-Russia cooperation. Geopolitics often trumps over short-term material gains. Hence, even if it means losing some money, China will continue to stand by Russia as the geopolitics dictates so.

To be honest, I am just marveled, awed at the shear diplomatic capability of the Chinese. From its initiative to be a leader of the developing world by working with nations from Africa et al during the 1950s, 1960s, to now consolidating her clout through the conduit of power vis-a-vis SCO, AIIB, the Chinese have proven themselves a worthy competitor of IMF, as well as even the US-led NATO body.

China's success is due in part to its utilitarian view. Early on in 1978 the Chinese had adopted market capitalism and opened itself to the west (unlike the former Soviet Union) and absorbed as much it could from the West. The Chinese' non-interventionalist approach led it to win the confidence of the West and thus she is able to develop ties , irrespective of geopolitic. This is what differentiates China from Russia; whereas the Russians are hostile to the West and rather mitigated in developing greater ties with developing states, the Chinese are contrary. They concede to points by the West, even implement policies and procedures suggested by her Western partners ergo, anti-corruption policies, prosecute graft to the maximum extent (as per Chinese Law), made necessary editions to Chinese Corporate Law.

China, in my personal opinion, has the capability to become a credible Superpower, definitely. She has shown, through her policies, that she's not above compromise, has shown her shear good will in committing massive capital to alleviating a common threat , ergo, the Ebola Health Initiative, sending the Peace Ark to the Philippines after Typhoon Haiyan 2013, sending medical supplies to Japan post 2011 Tsunami, sending health supplies to Indonesia after the Asian 2004 Tsunami, et al.

In various axes, China, to me, scores above Russia. And thus my confidence is in China. I only hope that China remains non-interventionist and does not forgoe its deep, functioning and mutually beneficial relationship with the West, Japan over other powers.
 
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In various axes, China, to me, scores above Russia. And thus my confidence is in China. I only hope that China remains non-interventionist and does not forgoe its deep, functioning and mutually beneficial relationship with the West, Japan over other powers.

Thank you for the very powerful post, my friend. I agree with all the points. As particularly for the point you made above, I guess this article below gives a clue about how far China's strategic thinking goes.

China needs to assist Russia, but not in the slightest sense be seen as "helping."

The world is neither entirely white nor black. I guess strategic flexibility should enable great nations such as China and Japan to play the multilateral game called foreign policy with relative success and full dignity.

How long can Russia withstand the crisis?
Source:Global Times Published: 2014-12-22 0:08:01

Unlike the image many people hold of Russia, it is neither a powerhouse that embraced the NSA whistle-blower Edward Snowden and annexed Crimea, nor a feeble country as evidenced by the plummeting ruble. The truth of Russia's situation is unclear to many people, both in the West and China.

The Russian economy is overly dependent on crude oil exports, and this ongoing crisis proves that it is not easy for Russia to be an extra-large Saudi Arabia. Some people suggest that Russia should learn from Canada and Australia, which have managed to transform huge reserves of natural resources into fortunes. However, due to Russia's large population of 140 million people, its modernity and strong currency cannot be solely supported by oil, gas and timber.

Western sanctions cannot be the straw that breaks the back of Russia. This old trick has proven much less effective even in smaller countries like Cuba and Iran. That is why Russia's annexation of Crimea only left the US and Europe impotent earlier this year. The ongoing crisis engulfing Russia in the wake of plummeting oil prices and the ruble depreciating is probably not what the US had planned. For Washington, what is happening in Russia is more or less unexpected.

Vladimir Putin's reign can hardly be overturned simply by currency inflation. Russia has experienced many ups and downs, and it has the tenacity to withstand risks and dangers.

However, many of Putin's visions, such as vaulting Russia to the top five in terms of economic strength by 2020 can hardly be realized now. Russia's morale and unity might fall victim to these failures, and the long-term stability of Russian politics is uncertain.

China's help will not get Russia completely off the hook. China is capable of offering sufficient capital, technologies and markets to Russia, but these efforts can only take limited effect if Russia's economy still relies heavily on oil exports and lacks structural diversity.

If Chinese investment in Russia shoots up under these circumstances, Moscow might suspect China has ulterior motives. Russia does not want to be a vassal of the Chinese economy, and this red line must be clearly understood by China.

It doesn't mean China should give Russia the cold shoulder and involve itself with the West. As a close neighbor, Russia plays an indispensable role as a strategic partner of China in the international community. China must hold a positive attitude to help Russia out of this crisis.

China must act as an active mediator between Russia and the US, or it will have to face unavoidable geopolitical risks if their conflict spirals out of control.

China hopes Russia can regain its economic strength as soon as possible. But anything we can do to help will be limited to what Russia asks for.
 
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I think that is a foolish and mundane thing to say. Never, ever underestimate the Chinese.

We are talking about China here, the Progenitor of East Asian Confucian culture. We are referring to a civilization state that has existed unbroken for 5 millennia. Not some miniscule , insignificant 3rd world state.
Its just bcz u overestimate China, not bcz I underestimate them. So, pls tell me what can China AF do when they dont have Russia engine ??

I said already, China or East Asian Confucian culture is just like old Nokia phone or Sony company. Thats the best in the past, but it's gone now. Thats why VN dont keep thats culture any more.
 
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Its just bcz u overestimate China, not bcz I underestimate them. So, pls tell me what can China AF do when they dont have Russia engine ??

I said already, China or East Asian Confucian culture is just like old Nokia phone or Sony company. Thats the best in the past, but it's gone now. Thats why VN dont keep thats culture any more.

Your vehement anti-Chinese stance clouds your judgement to making any objective analysis regarding China. Be more objective, please.
 
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Your vehement anti-Chinese stance clouds your judgement to making any objective analysis regarding China. Be more objective, please.
Okay, then pls answer me: what can China AF do when they dont have Russia engine ??
 
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Its just bcz u overestimate China, not bcz I underestimate them. So, pls tell me what can China AF do when they dont have Russia engine ??

I said already, China or East Asian Confucian culture is just like old Nokia phone or Sony company. Thats the best in the past, but it's gone now. Thats why VN dont keep thats culture any more.

Well said, personally I am sick of Confucius ethic also. I am sick of licking up my boss and in the culture of promoting people base on PR skills rather than capability. I am sick of society recognizing the rich as capable and virtuous that in reality the rich may be a crook or some lucky sperm.

But you may have over under estimate East Asian culture. Right now in USA society, people are screwing one another, taking drug and the whole society is breaking down.

I would say the Germanic and Israel society is somehow better.

If the Confucius society can get rid of her noxious part, I am sure we will be No 1 in the whole world.

Okay, then pls answer me: what can China AF do when they dont have Russia engine ??

Its time Vietnamese dump their chopstick if they hate Chinese culture so much....

I bet you wont. Try eating with folk and spoon only.
 
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Well said, personally I am sick of Confucius ethic also. I am sick of licking up my boss and in the culture of promoting people base on PR skills rather than capability. I am sick of ,y society recognizing the rich as capable and virtuous that in reality the rich may be a crook or some lucky sperm.

But you may have over under estimate East Asian culture. Right now in USA society, people are screwing one another, taking drug and the whole society is breaking down.

I would say the Germanic and Israel society is somehow better.
Capitalist society will collapse, thats what Karl Max said, so it makes No surprise when US also having lots of problem when under the Wall st. tycoon's control. Its time for US society to move to the next stage: the communist society.

VN-China-Soviet was and r not a true communist country czo we r not developed nations like UK-US.

Its time Vietnamese dump their chopstick if they hate Chinese culture so much....

I bet you wont. Try eating with folk and spoon only.
Why ?? I hate US so do I have to dump my Android phone coz Android OS belong to US ??
 
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Capitalist society will collapse, thats what Karl Max said, so it makes No surprise when US also having lots of problem when under the Wall st. tycoon's control. Its time for US society to move to the next stage: the communist society.

VN-China-Soviet was and r not a true communist country czo we r not developed nations like UK-US.

The Chinese society however bad, will take care of her people once she reach a certain level of prosperity. The Chinese society believe in building infrastructure.

Go to USA and see the Anglo Saxon would prefer their bridge and buildings to rot, so long that the rich cannot profit out of it, they wont repair it.

One salient point of East Asian culture, that we may perceive as "bad" is East Asians are willing to sacrifice generations and generations of people, even bleeding them dry in war, in order for future generation to benefit. If you belongs to that generation, you are dead meat.

China basically sacrifice the generations of people, most recently during the post 1978. Those Post 1978 adults are thrown into capitalist sweat shop, so that future generation will benefit.

Right now as China has accumulated some wealth, she is already starting to build some social security.

My country leaders who are peranakan are anglicized and they subscribe to shitty capitalism. It was the Chinese culture of the people who put a brake on them. My leaders keep telling us why we must not help the old, but they point them the 3rd finger.

You born in USA as a black, the white will let you rot on your own.
 
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The Chinese society however bad, will take care of her people once she reach a certain level of prosperity. The Chinese society believe in building infrastructure.

Go to USA and see the Anglo Saxon would prefer their bridge and buildings to rot, so long that the rich cannot profit out of it, they wont repair it.

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Its the bad aspect of capitalist system, thats why poor and oppressed people must stand up and overthrow that system and start building better system such as Communist society. If poor US people dont stand up and fight for a better society, then thats their false.
One salient point of East Asian culture, that we may perceive as "bad" is East Asians are willing to sacrifice generations and generations of people, even bleeding them dry in war, in order for future generation to benefit. If you belongs to that generation, you are dead meat.

China basically sacrifice the generations of people, most recently during the post 1978. Those Post 1978 adults are thrown into capitalist sweat shop, so that future generation will benefit.

Right now as China has accumulated some wealth, she is already starting to build some social security.

My country leaders who are peranakan are anglicized and they subscribe to shitty capitalism. It was the Chinese culture of the people who put a brake on them. My leaders keep telling us why we must not help the old, but they point them the 3rd finger.
Russia-Jew also do the same to their next generation.
You born in USA as a black, the white will let you rot on your own.
Then , its time for black and poor US guys to build a communist society.:pop:
 
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Current capitalist countries would use global trading to solve this issue..
Transfer the low end industries out to poor countries.
Buy products from these countries at low price and sell high end products at high price.
Then the whole capitalist country is middle class or richer with less trouble.
High income low cost..

Its the bad aspect of capitalist system, thats why poor and oppressed people must stand up and overthrow that system and start building better system such as Communist society. If poor US people dont stand up and fight for a better society, then thats their false.

Russia-Jew also do the same to their next generation.

Then , its time for black and poor US guys to build a communist society.:pop:
 
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Its the bad aspect of capitalist system, thats why poor and oppressed people must stand up and overthrow that system and start building better system such as Communist society. If poor US people dont stand up and fight for a better society, then thats their false.

Russia-Jew also do the same to their next generation.

Then , its time for black and poor US guys to build a communist society.:pop:

Never mind how much I good thing I say for Chinese society, it is still a piece of shit, that I must admit. And white man society today is far better, but I am not sure about tomorrow.

But we have to admit we are still far better than Islamofascist and Indian caste-ist society.

You step out of Delhi airport for a few km, first thing you see is SHIT. Its SHIT literally.

The Japanese society is slightly better. Japanese are far more honest and honorable. Taiwan is quite good.

Korean is bad. I went Vietnam of business trip many times and I think it is no good also.

The key is we need to get rid of the noxious effect of Confucius-ism to create a better world. I think we are no 2 or no3 civilization, probably behind western and jewish.
 
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Never mind how much I good thing I say for Chinese society, it is still a piece of shit, that I must admit. And white man society today is far better, but I am not sure about tomorrow.

But we have to admit we are still far better than Islamofascist and Indian caste-ist society.

You step out of Delhi airport for a few km, first thing you see is SHIT. Its SHIT literally.

The Japanese society is slightly better. Japanese are far more honest and honorable. Taiwan is quite good.

Korean is bad. I went Vietnam of business trip many times and I think it is no good also.

The key is we need to get rid of the noxious effect of Confucius-ism to create a better world. I think we are no 2 or no3 civilization, probably behind western and jewish.
Yep , Asia is lag behind Europe mostly bcz of Confucius culture. Its just like Nokia and Sony in the past, we were satisfied wt what we got when the West still keep moving forward, so we r dumped now.

Protecting Confucius culture is just like protecting Nokia or Sony, and the West will be so happy to keep dominating us for centuries ahead
 
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Yep , Asia is lag behind Europe mostly bcz of Confucius culture. Its just like Nokia and Sony in the past, we were satisfied wt what we got when the West still keep moving forward, so we r dumped now.

Protecting Confucius culture is just like protecting Nokia or Sony, and the West will be so happy to keep dominating us for centuries ahead

I find your defeatist and fatalistic attitude quite vexing.
 
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I find your defeatist and fatalistic attitude quite vexing.
We have different thinking, what I think is good may not good in ur thought.Thats normal.

But its True that Sony is dying now, maybe JP also have lots of AH Q when trying to think Sony is still the best :pop:
 
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