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The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

I concur with you that Russia may pose a long term threat to China's National Security, due to the wide-array of Russian interventionist policies that are counter-intuitive to China's sovereign strategem. I would point out that Russia is currently flowering its relationship with North Korea, as well as improving defense articulation with Vietnam, India , both of which are nations that are in qualms with China -- especially in regards to territorial disputes.

I conjecture that prior to Russia's current geopolitical quagmire (Western Sanctions, Economic Collapse) , they were involved in various military articulations with nations that are competitors with China. They had leased a nuclear submarine to India, and are considering yet another program with India vis-a-vis the Project 971 Nerpa. All of this is happening at the same time while Russia's Putin is publicly spewing that China is Russia's "great friend". At the same time the same "friend" is providing Kilo class submarines, and Gepard class frigates to Vietnam, which can be construed as actively and directly improving Vietnam's projection to counter and resist Chinese claims in the Paracel, Spratly Islands.

Apologists for Russia will say that such iconoclastic conjectures will hamper Russo-Chinese ties, but one can answer that by studying the geopolitics of Russia these past 4 decades, and an analysis of Moscow's foreign policy will lead any analyst / researcher to see its inherent interventionist policy to most of its 'partners'. In fact , the Russians are heavily involved in policies that will only benefit her interests with concordance in Russia's favor.

In the short term, cooperating with Russia is favorable to Beijing's national strategic interests. But long term, say when China's economy (GDP) exceeds that of the United States', has a military defense spending that is at par with the United States, do you think Russia will be satisfied to be "under" a Beijing that is militarily, economically and diplomatically greater than he? I doubt it. They are not the type to be satisfied with being #2 in any relationship, history proves this. They will, eventually, be actively involved in duplicitous interventionist activities within China or with powers that surround China.

To cite the old adage, "Best to keep one's friends close, but one's enemies...keep them closer"



Hi Peter,

The notions of relationship concordance is a great interest and value to all of us, especially in the field of human sciences (sociology, psychology, neuroscience, neurobiology) because it allows us to study various variables that play a role in personality development as well as behavioral development. Cultural differences may be a pervading factor of interest, but, overall, personality, or in specific, psychosocial elements are almost universal. This concept of marital infidelity is present in any society, any culture; be it Western European, Eastern European, North African, Subsaharan, Central Asian, Southeast Asian, East Asian et al. Sexual appetite , sexual urge is ubiquitous.

If a woman, doesn't matter what part of the world she's from, feels that she's undergoing a form of abuse (mental, physical, sexual) then she has the right to leave that injurious and toxic environment. Permanently. While there may be some practices in establishments in East Asia that condones peripheral sexuality (massage parlors in China, Geisha in Japan et al), one should also note that not every man from say Japan or China indulges in such activity or engages in such interest. I can cite a personal example for this conjecture. My grandfather never took part in such , neither does my father, and neither do i. There are women in Japan who abhor such a practice and make it known to their partners of their opposition to such behavior, and many abscond their partners if they partake in that lifestyle.

Let me also add that I personally believe that "Love" knows no color. If a Japanese man or woman falls in love with a fellow Japanese, then great! If , however, they fall in "Love" with a foreigner, then great also. Follow your heart; afterall, we only live once. So long as that person whom a person selects provides him or her with a positive household, loving environment ...then go for it!

indeed, some even can say that the Russia actually more willing to see a "Controlled" or "Pivoted" China than anyone else in this world, even more so than the US.

Quite don't understand why Chinese member here (To some extend some Chinese Citizens) see US as a threat when the only thing they did to the Modern China is by supporting Taiwan and KMT. But nobody really do cares what Russia actually did to the Chinese. They invaded Manchuria after WW2, they break their bond with China and supported Vietnam over in the 70s. They threaten China on using Thermonuclear weapon and they are one of the (if not main) supporter to India, one of the Chinese rival in the world and in the region.

If you ask me, I would have to say it make more sense for China to cozy up with America then Russia, the Chinese Nightmare situation is not US having bases in Far East, (Japan, Korea and Singapore) but it really should be 2 regional power, India and Russia, sandwiched China.

Russia has plenty of monies problem is her elites siphon it off. A country the size and technology level of Russia does not need to trade with others. She can close her door up and live like emperor.

I think this time, it is inevitable that Russia will lose Kiev, but take back consolation like Crimea. If Russian elites do not repent, 100 years down the road, the entire Russia will break up.

only time will tells
 
Ruble Swap Shows China Challenging IMF as Emergency Lender - Bloomberg

China is stepping up its role as the lender of last resort to some of the world’s most financially strapped countries.

Chinese officials signaled Saturday that they are willing to expand a $24 billion currency swap program to help Russia weather the worst economic crisis since the 1998 default. China has provided $2.3 billion in funds to Argentina since October as part of a currency swap, and last month it lent $4 billion to Venezuela, whose reserves cover just two years of debt payments.

By lending to nations shut out of overseas capital markets, Chinese President Xi Jinping is bolstering the country’s influence in the global economy and cutting into the International Monetary Fund’s status as the go-to financier for governments in financial distress. While the IMF tends to demand reforms aimed at stabilizing a country’s economy in exchange for loans, analysts speculate that China’s terms are more focused on securing its interests in the resource-rich countries.

“It’s always good to have IOUs in the back of your pocket,” Morten Bugge, the chief investment officer at Kolding, Denmark-based Global Evolution A/S who helps manage about $2 billion of emerging-market debt, said by phone. “These are China’s fellow friends and comrades, and to secure long-term energy could be one of the motivations.”

The ruble jumped 4.8 percent to 55.8470 per dollar as of 3:07 p.m. in New York after Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV cited China’s Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng as saying that expanding the currency swap between the two nations would help Russia.

Ukraine’s Allies
The ruble has gained 10 percent over the past two days, paring a selloff that’s made it the world’s worst performing currency over the past six months.

Unlike Ukraine, where the pro-west government received a $17 billion IMF-led bailout this year, Russia, Argentina and Venezuela are often at odds with the U.S. and its allies, essentially keeping them out of the reach of the Washington-based institution. At $3.89 trillion, China holds the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves, allowing it to fill the void.

China and Russia signed a three-year currency-swap line of 150 billion yuan ($24 billion) in October, a contract that allows Russia to borrow the yuan and lend the ruble. While the offer won’t relieve the main sources of pressure on the ruble -- which has lost 41 percent this year amid plunging oil prices and sanctions linked to Russia’s annexation of Crimea -- it could bolster investors’ confidence in the country and help stem capital outflows.

Argentina Reserves
A phone call to China’s central bank seeking comment on the terms of its currency swaps wasn’t returned after business hours. Russia isn’t in talks with China about any financial aid, Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for PresidentVladimir Putin, said on Dec. 20.

Funding from China has helped raise Argentina’s foreign reserves to a 13-month high of $30.9 billion, a boost for a country that has been kept out of international capital markets since defaulting on foreign obligations in 2001.

Argentina received $1 billion worth of yuan earlier this month as part of the three-year currency-swap agreement with China, a central bank official in the South American country, who asked not to be identified because he isn’t authorized to speak publicly, said Dec. 11. That extended the funds transfered to Argentina to $2.3 billion since October. The swap is for a maximum of $11 billion over three years.

$21 Billion
In Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro last month added $4 billion he borrowed from China to the country’s reserves after they fell to an 11-year low. The country now has about $21 billion in its coffers, equal to the amount of debt it has coming due in 2015 and 2016.

Venezuela, which was already plagued by shortages of everything from toilet paper to toothpaste, is also suffering from the drop in oil, its biggest export. Traders are betting that there’s an 89 percent probability that Venezuela won’t be able to make good on its debts over the next five years, according to credit default swaps data compiled by Bloomberg.

“I don’t think this is a broad policy to support any country that asks for Chinese help,” Steffen Reichold, an economist at Stone Harbor Investment Partners in New York, said in an e-mail. “Several countries are currently in a tight spot and the Chinese are offering to help. That buys them some goodwill and influence, and promotes the use of the yuan.”

U.K., Australia
The People’s Bank of China has signed currency-swap agreements with 28 other central banks around the world, including those in the U.K. and Australia, making the yuan an alternative to the dollar for global trade and finance.

By promoting the use of its currency, China acts in its own interests as it challenges the dominance of the U.S. in the global economy.

Two months after Russia annexed Crimea in March, China signed a three-decade, $400 billion deal to buy Russian gas. Oil imports from Russia hit an all-time high in November, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.

China has made $47 billion in loans to Venezuela since 2007, making it the country’s largest creditor, according to Eurasia Group, a political consulting firm. Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest oil reserves, repays the loans by shipping crude to China.

In July, Xi signed trade and investment agreements for at least $7.5 billion in Argentina, cementing China’s ties to the world’s third largest soybean producer.

“China is playing an increasingly more important role and is willing to engage,” Michael Ganske, who oversees $8 billion as the head of emerging markets at Rogge Global Partners Plc, said by e-mail from London. “There is geo-strategic importance connected with” the funding deals, he said.

***

Credits: This article has first been shared by @Raphael on another thread. I just share it here again as it is also related to the topic at hand.
 
IMO Russia expected something in return for cozy up to the US since the fall of USSR. I don't think the Russians had the missile shield near their country in mind. Not to mention they didn't like the US/NATO intervention in Yugoslavia.
China on the other hand also didn't get what she desires from the US so that's why we would like to break the monopoly by creating the BRICS bank and the Asian Bank, challenging the US Dollar as the only world currency. While jhungary made some interesting points regarding certain Russian political moves which hurts China's interest, it's also Russia that is currently sharing similar world view with China. To a certain degree we are on the same page countering US/EU aggressive behavior.
 
indeed, some even can say that the Russia actually more willing to see a "Controlled" or "Pivoted" China than anyone else in this world, even more so than the US.

Quite don't understand why Chinese member here (To some extend some Chinese Citizens) see US as a threat when the only thing they did to the Modern China is by supporting Taiwan and KMT. But nobody really do cares what Russia actually did to the Chinese. They invaded Manchuria after WW2, they break their bond with China and supported Vietnam over in the 70s. They threaten China on using Thermonuclear weapon and they are one of the (if not main) supporter to India, one of the Chinese rival in the world and in the region.

If you ask me, I would have to say it make more sense for China to cozy up with America then Russia, the Chinese Nightmare situation is not US having bases in Far East, (Japan, Korea and Singapore) but it really should be 2 regional power, India and Russia, sandwiched China.



only time will tells
US is a threat to China communist regime while Russia is just a threat to its lands. Of course a threat to the regime is always more dangerous than a threat to some China barren lands:pop:
 
US is a threat to China communist regime while Russia is just a threat to its lands. Of course a threat to the regime is always more dangerous than a threat to some China barren lands:pop:

You do not make sense.

US also attempted a color revolution in Russia but failed. That's why they moved from Moscow to Kiev in their secondary attempt to proxy regime change and succeeded.

China's barren lands, miraculously, can buy out the entire Vietnam with their GNP output.
 
ndeed, some even can say that the Russia actually more willing to see a "Controlled" or "Pivoted" China than anyone else in this world, even more so than the US.

Quite don't understand why Chinese member here (To some extend some Chinese Citizens) see US as a threat when the only thing they did to the Modern China is by supporting Taiwan and KMT. But nobody really do cares what Russia actually did to the Chinese. They invaded Manchuria after WW2, they break their bond with China and supported Vietnam over in the 70s. They threaten China on using Thermonuclear weapon and they are one of the (if not main) supporter to India, one of the Chinese rival in the world and in the region.

If you ask me, I would have to say it make more sense for China to cozy up with America then Russia, the Chinese Nightmare situation is not US having bases in Far East, (Japan, Korea and Singapore) but it really should be 2 regional power, India and Russia, sandwiched China.

I completely agree. In fact, I would actually hope to see a continued cooperation between the United States, Japan, China and Australia in maintaining the global order and securing regional and global stability. Aside from the military and political cooperation , the economic aspect is important to consider. The Trilateral Trade between China-Japan-USA already exceeds $1 Trillion per annum. And its expected to grow even higher.

I personally wish a Trans-Pacific Partnership between China, South Korea, Japan, and United States (which is by its own right a Pacific Power).
 
Russia will be able to overcome economic problems - Chinese Foreign Minister

December 21, 15:44 UTC+3

"If the Russian side needs it, we shall offer all possible support we may have,” the foreign minister said
BEIJING, December 21. /TASS/. China believes Russia will be able to overcome the current economic problems, and is ready to offer whatever assistance if needed, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in an interview with Hong Kong’s Fenghuang television channel on Sunday.


© Dmitry Astakhov/Russian government's press service/TASS

“We believe that Russia has opportunities and knowledge to overcome the current problems in the economy. The Chinese-Russian relations of strategic partnership are at a high level, we are always supporting and helping our friend. If the Russian side needs it, we shall offer all possible support we may have,” the foreign minister said.

China’s Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng told Fenghuang while commenting on the situation with rouble: “As for certain fluctuations in the stock market and the fluctuations in the currency market - they may be of certain interest for some capital investors, and from the practical cooperation point of view - we are still calm and promote actively our cooperation.”

The minister of commerce also expressed confidence the current financial and economic situation in Russia would not afflict implementation of the major Russian-Chinese projects in the energy, industries and other spheres.
 
You do not make sense.

US also attempted a color revolution in Russia but failed. That's why they moved from Moscow to Kiev in their secondary attempt to proxy regime change and succeeded.

China's barren lands, miraculously can buy out the entire Vietnam with their GNP output.

Agreed. Let's not even bring Vietnam to this discussion.

Russia will be able to overcome economic problems - Chinese Foreign Minister

December 21, 15:44 UTC+3

"If the Russian side needs it, we shall offer all possible support we may have,” the foreign minister said
BEIJING, December 21. /TASS/. China believes Russia will be able to overcome the current economic problems, and is ready to offer whatever assistance if needed, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in an interview with Hong Kong’s Fenghuang television channel on Sunday.


© Dmitry Astakhov/Russian government's press service/TASS

“We believe that Russia has opportunities and knowledge to overcome the current problems in the economy. The Chinese-Russian relations of strategic partnership are at a high level, we are always supporting and helping our friend. If the Russian side needs it, we shall offer all possible support we may have,” the foreign minister said.

China’s Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng told Fenghuang while commenting on the situation with rouble: “As for certain fluctuations in the stock market and the fluctuations in the currency market - they may be of certain interest for some capital investors, and from the practical cooperation point of view - we are still calm and promote actively our cooperation.”

The minister of commerce also expressed confidence the current financial and economic situation in Russia would not afflict implementation of the major Russian-Chinese projects in the energy, industries and other spheres.

Again this illustrates the shear importance China is to Russia's economic survival , especially during this time. Good article and I do wish the best for our Chinese partners .
 
You do not make sense.

US also attempted a color revolution in Russia but failed. That's why they moved from Moscow to Kiev in their secondary attempt to proxy regime change and succeeded.

China's barren lands, miraculously, can buy out the entire Vietnam with their GNP output.
DO not make sense ?? I just explain why Chinese here support Russian instead of US.

China is richer just bcz u guys bowed down to US since 1979 , accepted US 's rule over TW. If China dare to take back TW like Russia take back Crime, then China will get sanction and even much poorer than N.Korea wt millions starve to death in the winter per year:pop:
 
US is a threat to China communist regime while Russia is just a threat to its lands. Of course a threat to the regime is always more dangerous than a threat to some China barren lands:pop:

The entire western idea of good things like human right, democracy, freedom is a threat to PRC elites who believe the need to lock up dissident, who stands for corruption and autocraticism.

That is reason why many PRC want to migrate to white man land, meanwhile, many in PDF are hypocrite to bash their white man host.

Even commie leaders and PRC nepotismo-tycoon park their wealth in white man land or places like Singapore because they do not like the shit hole that they themselves created for other people.

These PRC leaders as well as some of their paid commenters poison peopie mind telling them to hate white man meanwhile sending their scions to top college in white man land.

PRC must repent and introspect deeply such sicko mentality is undesirable.

The threat of USA against PRC is ideological and it will vaporize once PRC find a better way to take care of her people. For example USA is famous for not providing healthcare to her citizen. If PRC can give free healthcare, a lot of appeal of USA will vaporized.

Meanwhile, Russia is a real threat against PRC due to her imperialistic culture. The dilapidated Russian state since 1990 is God sent to PRC, diffusing her security threat at the north.


article-0-1251CDA6000005DC-391_634x426.jpg
 
IMO Russia expected something in return for cozy up to the US since the fall of USSR. I don't think the Russians had the missile shield near their country in mind. Not to mention they didn't like the US/NATO intervention in Yugoslavia.
China on the other hand also didn't get what she desires from the US so that's why we would like to break the monopoly by creating the BRICS bank and the Asian Bank, challenging the US Dollar as the only world currency. While jhungary made some interesting points regarding certain Russian political moves which hurts China's interest, it's also Russia that is currently sharing similar world view with China. To a certain degree we are on the same page countering US/EU aggressive behavior.

Cautious observation is needed for China. China has massive, massive trade volume with the European Union, the United States and Japan. And this continues to increase , and will serve as an independent variable for China's continued neutrality in regards to this Russia situation regarding her political conflict with the West. China should utilize Russia for energy security, and continue to expand her horizon with her continued cooperation with the West and Japan , her greatest trade partners.
 
DO not make sense ?? I just explain why Chinese here support Russian instead of US.

China is richer just bcz u guys bowed down to US since 1979 , accepted US 's rule over TW. If China dare to take back TW like Russia take back Crime, then China will get sanction and even much poorer than N.Korea wt millions starve to death in the winter per year:pop:

You keep on not making sense since your previous post did not explain anything that you claim it did in your above post.

I even do not know why I am talking to you. If you were an Indian or a Western I would have already put you on my ignore list.

Cautious observation is needed for China. China has massive, massive trade volume with the European Union, the United States and Japan. And this continues to increase , and will serve as an independent variable for China's continued neutrality in regards to this Russia situation regarding her political conflict with the West. China should utilize Russia for energy security, and continue to expand her horizon with her continued cooperation with the West and Japan , her greatest trade partners.

Indeed, no need to get ideologically attached to the conflict, but maintain equal relationship (as much as possible) with all sides. China still needs development and, although not anymore at alarming levels, its GDP still derives some 25% from exports.

This, however, does not mean that China will not have an opinion as to whether the sanctions are justified or not.
 
You keep on not making sense since your previous post did not explain anything that you claim it did in your above post.

I even do not know why I am talking to you. If you were an Indian or a Western I would have already put you on my ignore list.
Next time, pls dont quote my post, idiot, pls get lost, I was quote Jhunggary's post. and u jumped in like a mad

The entire western idea of good things like human right, democracy, freedom is a threat to PRC elites who believe the need to lock up dissident, who stands for corruption and autocraticism.

That is reason why many PRC want to migrate to white man land, meanwhile, many in PDF are hypocrite to bash their white man host.

Even commie leaders and PRC nepotismo-tycoon park their wealth in white man land or places like Singapore because they do not like the shit hole that they themselves created for other people.

These PRC leaders as well as some of their paid commenters poison peopie mind telling them to hate white man meanwhile sending their scions to top college in white man land.

PRC must repent and introspect deeply such sicko mentality is undesirable.

The threat of USA against PRC is ideological and it will vaporize once PRC find a better way to take care of her people. For example USA is famous for not providing healthcare to her citizen. If PRC can give free healthcare, a lot of appeal of USA will vaporized.

Meanwhile, Russia is a real threat against PRC due to her imperialistic culture. The dilapidated Russian state since 1990 is God sent to PRC, diffusing her security threat at the north.


article-0-1251CDA6000005DC-391_634x426.jpg
Yeah, I think China should be ruled by TW again, they will bring democracy and human rights to poor Chinese peasants who have No voice against corrupted officials :D
 
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Next time, pls dont quote my post, idiot, pls get lost, I was quote Jhunggary's post. and u jumped in like a mad


Yeah, I think China should be rulled by TW again, they will bring democracy and human rights to poor Chinese peasants:D

If you do not want to be quoted, do not post anything.

On topic: Below is an interesting insight that offers an alternative light on the recent developments.

***


Eurasian union unappealing prospect following Russia’s economic slump
By Sheradil Baktygulov

616a22cf-f7d3-43cb-85f1-44839c8acc84.jpeg

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT


The upcoming new year will bring many changes in some countries near China. Probably the most interesting is the coming of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) which will come into existence on January 1. This bloc includes Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, with Armenia and Kyrgyzstan on the path to the membership.

The main idea of the EEU is to be a better guarantor of the region's economic interests. This perception is based on the leading role of the Russian economy within the EEU. Could Russia play this role? The role of the regional economic locomotive is not so clear.

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) is supposed to serve as the supra - national body of the EEU.

The decisions of the EEC and the EEU Court are not mandatory. The EEU members might not execute these decisions. This situation could decrease the efficiency of the regional economic bloc.

The Western sanctions against Russia resulted in a steep decline in the ruble following a simultaneous slide in global oil prices. So, the US and the EU sanctions have put a further heavy burden on the Russian role as the economic engine.

The Kazakh experts are optimistic. The main trend is that the Western sanctions will not impact the Kazakh economy because the sanctions against Russian oil and gas producers will not prohibit the supply of technology to the Kazakhs.

This opinion is fair, given the interests of the Kazakh oil and gas companies, but does not consider the prices for food and beverages, which will increase by up to 15 to 20 percent.

The war of sanctions has damaged relations among the Customs Union countries. In November, the Russian authorities prohibited the transit of Western products via Belarus through Russia to other countries, including Kazakhstan.

Their main concern is that such shipments are a scheme to violate Russia's retaliatory sanctions against Europe, which prohibit the import of most European agricultural products. Moreover, the Russian authorities have banned the import of meat and milk products from eight Belarusian companies since November 26, 2014.

This step is understandable from the Russian point of view, but not from the Belarusian or Kazakhstani ones. Belarus and Kazakhstan do not support the Russian sanctions against the Western countries. Therefore, these two countries have the right to import meet, milk, fruits and vegetables from any country, which allows them to remanufacture the imported Western products as a Customs Union product in accordance with the Customs Union regulations and deliver it to the Russian food market.

The steep decline in the ruble makes the situation for businesses harder.

The previous currency rates were attractive for trade among the Customs Union countries and the Central Asian countries before the Western actions. This has forced Central Asian agricultural products producers to increase prices, which then reduces demand.

Finally, the slowdown in the Russian economy could have an impact on the EEU members' national currency devaluation.

Probably one positive factor of being a member of the EEU following the Russian economic crisis is an access to the Russian energy resources at low prices, which could stimulate the interests of foreign investors to the EEU member states to produce products in their lands for the Russian market.
 
If you do not want to be quoted, do not post anything.

.
I always tell the Truth. Chinese support Russia instead of US is just like communist VN still stay closer to communist China than US even China is a threat to VN lands.

If u Ah Q dont wanna heard the Truth (China eccepted US rule over TW to avoid sanction ...etc ), then , its ur own problem. Dont speak nonsense here.
 

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