Theory of Rationality... The Game Theory ... what a practical
demonstration we just saw,
US-Iran muk-muka.
It is once again validated!!!
No wonder it is part of
Artificial Intelligence Alogrithm ... especially in
forecasting scenarios ...in policy/foreign policy and
Wargaming!
All
ThreeAntagonists are back in
The Prisoner's Dilema...back to the agreed
Rules of The Game!
Since,
1979 The Game was
agreed... as we saw in the
FirstGreatAfghanWar.
Persia had its dedicated jihadi groups in Kabulistan...with full US support... as did
US-Arab financed Pak trained
Mujahideen.
It was all
kosher back then with
Israel providing weapons to 'Islamist Terrorists' without Star of David in order not to embarrass Zia ...
Mard e Momin ... Mard e Haq.. Zial ul Haq... Zia ul Haq... what a funny world that was...
However, Zia was an extremely
RationalActor and played
The Game with agreed Rules...
He was
the best choice at that moment for
PakState and the
Rest of the
InternationalActors. But when he broke the rules of making
Pakistan NuclearState in
1985-86... he was punished...
midair Boom!
He
chose Pakistan's Strategic Interests over the interests of the
InternationalActors. So, the price had to be paid.
He did everything for Pakistan!
Iran-Iraq-War was at the
behest of
TheThirdActor and also to keep a
highly probable IndependentActor, Persia, from emerging...
Soviets and Americans agreed to support Saddam...with the full support of
TheThirdActor.
Hence, with support/agreement of the
Rest against probable
IndependentActor, Persia, we saw a
useless, purposeless war...which only brought death and destruction and ended without any conclusion... unlike
FirstGreatAfghanWar which
provided Pakistan's First StrategicRelief to
China,
Europe and
the US...becoming
HyperPower in
1989!
The liberation of the
EasternEurope is
courtesy Pakistan...paid in full with
Afghan and
PakBlood...
heroin and AK47...and
millions of Afghan refugees to boot!
And we are still paying for it!!! Let us NEVER forget APS>
However, the
TwoActors won The Game!
OurLivesDontMatter ...we are
CannonFodder for last
200years...and counting!
We can all go the
AC with
Roosevlet and see what is happening
there...
Or we can go to a certain
balcony in
Persia..and see what
Churchil/Stalin are they doing there...
So all these
Brovadoz of
CyberMediaCells or
impotent hypernationalism are exactly that
Brovadoz....
TheThirdActor didn't want
SyrianUnification and we saw
Slaughter in Lebanon... oh, those
BeruitDelights...them
plump BellyDancers...
ExocticNights while the
KillingFields continued... yes,
some brotherhood that!
The probable
IndepedentActor, Persia, needed breathing space and a pressure point on
TheThirdActor...
with willing dispossessed majority...
we got Hizbollah!
With Yanks there in Lebanon pressure on Persia would continue so
thay had to go... BeruitBarrakBombings...
Marines went to heavens...
YankiRevenge promised.... But them
ExoticNights and
BellyDancers... continued...
NightLove is in the air!!!
Pakistan saw
'Islamization of Zia' ....
FazoolMullahMaffia got rich and
madrassaz got bigger...
SupplyLines of the CannonFodder so that the
US could defeat the Soviets..all
kosher still... all
halal... all justified and glorified in the
WesternMarasiMedia!
IslamicFoundingFathers in
DaWhitehouse... and
Regan shooting Aliens with his
Starwarz....
Persia boxed... The Game!
IranContra and
much more behind the scenes...
the US loves Persia... and wished/wishes to keep everyone in straight line... some Game!
It is imperative that we don't forget that in Iran-Iraq war
we helped Persia with
train loads of goodies...which the
Ruling Persian Elite gratefully accepted.
We NEVER harmed Persia!
Then we saw
Persia entered Pakistan to counter
TheThridActor ... and we had the
Red...
TheKillingFields of SecterianHeaven... which still has left
deep traumas, mistrust and fractures... all because of The Game!
It was/is
pure business, nothing personal... and
PakLivesDontMatter...
we allowed this as people, as PakState...
so we should look within than seek escape of blamegames.... Persia is a RationalActor...
With the wrapping up of
FirstGreatAfghanWar it was time for
YankRevenge for
BeruitBombings ...
Flight 655 went Boom ...while the
USS Vincennes was lurking in the
Iranian TerritorialWaters...
Khomeini announced mourning for
290 souls...and
ended the Iran-Iraq War.
It was Feb 1988.
General Zia's C130 went Boom in August 1988.
Partytime in D.C and
Iraq rebuild started. So did
Persia. And of course,
China opened up...
Getting Rich was/is Glorious!
In the same time period
KSA bought
BMz from China with full US support...
Sino-US were in the same camp in
The Game...
courtesy Pakistan!
However, we got
santioned to our neck by the US and were made to eat
soybeans instead of flying F Solaz.. feeding Afghan Refugees and
preparing Benazir's Talibans... with the help of
KSA n GCC combine....
Persia did too with
GanguDaesh...
the results we know!
Saddam got restless and tried to extend his
ArabBrotherhood...
the US called Persia. Everyone was onboard...
FirstGulfWar a resounding success of close cooperation between
Persia, the US and TheThirdActor!
The US supported Taliban through
Pak-KSACombine...
Talibanz in
Texas talking deals... those were the days of
GoodTalibanz...
Russia under
Putin and
China keeping its head down buying its time...
Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo...
nobody seen PakKashmiris as humans same as Paks....
CannonFodder is
Cheap!
In all these years we had the delight of listening to
Bush Sr. declaring The New World Order ...
Clinton teaching us It Is The Economy Stupid...
DotCom Bubble Busting.
Karl Rove becoming the Bush Jr. Brain... privilge of reading
The New American Century...
NeoCons were partying and
ridding the Surfboars on the Waves of Hybperpower
And all this time terrorists in the
Caves of Kabulistan were planning the biggest
TerrorStrike in History and pulled it off too...
to create collective trauma in the
Deep Global Subconcious...
StoneAge became the
kismat of
Kabulistan and
WMDs made Iraq dead...
Persia helped the US to remove
BadTalibanz and EvilSadam....
US-Persia Friends Forever!!!
And
we chose not to go back to StoneAge and helped the Yanks to remove terrorists...
Ganguz made a nest in
NDS and we lost
80+K Paks and
$220+Bln to economy...and counting... and then
Birth Pangs of the New MiddleEast started ...and
NRO landed in Pakistan to create
DarkDecade of absolute loot and plunder... resulting is total
EconomicTerrorism and we becoming
AbsoluteBeggarz! AllooGosht in Londonistan!!
Condy, Condy..what a naughty girl you are! But you play good piaono!!!
5 Countries in 7 years... was all the
Rage in D.C ThinkTankLand.... but
Persia had different plans...
quick sands of Iraq and Caves of Kabulistan got the
Hyperpower back to
Superpower...
Persia could breath... and there was the growing
PersianLobby in the
US Deepstate which wanted a
Grand Bargain...
Ryan Crocker... the
New Lawarnce of Persia ...
speaking his fluent Farsi, Urdu and of course, Arabic... wanted
Persia to be StrategicPartner of the US and
let Paks eat soybeans... or mud for all he cared.
Obama was the man of Peace for killing more with his drones... yes,
The Nuclear Deal finally happened...now the
US and Persia could create the New Middle East together...
But not so fast!
Israel couldn't smash Hizbolah...to the dismay of
TheThridActor Collective!!!
Syria offered a new hope...but first Persia and then Russia... got in and crushed the hounds of hell... the agents of terror...
The US worked together with Persia in Iraq and Syria to contain/crush the
Hounds of Hell... Persia and the US... playing by the
Agreed Rules! Friends Forever!
TheThirdActor in The Game wasn't so happy...
NeoCons without any thing to party... so we got
OrangeBall...
In all those years of
Birth Pangs and
Hyperpowerism..
Persia gain strengthed.... made up with Russia as both needed each other.. and then there is
China... hungry for raw materials..
ever ready to do business!
So, Persia increased its
Comprehensive National Strength to the
Angst of
TheThridActor which looked on in
paralysed motion... other than
hotair retohric it could do
nothing against Persia.
Both the US and Persia played with Agreed Rules.
Even Israel played with those rules...
never broke it... it is immaterial that it could break the sound barrier over Beruit or bomb Syria...
immaterial because these two states have no comparable force... so the little impunity is allowed... but after 2006... it is
All Playing by The Rules of The Game!
From
PakPerspective it is vital that we understand that the
GanguFacistEntity gained
foothold in GCC at the
prompting of the US which convined/forced its
GCC allies to increase the share of
GanguWorkforce and invest in their local economy.... beacuse an
economically viable FacistState is needed to
CounterChina...
In this we must also take the blame of being dead... all the focus of
ZardariRegime was to admire the
Cuves of DollarGirls and
NooraRegime wanted to swim in
AllooGosht sea...
Moneylaundering is PakNationalSport!
We lost GCC because of our interia and the
US wishing to prop up FacistState against China.
It is imperative to jog our memory...that in the early days of labour force in GCC... Paks were on top... and it was the US which asked/forced/prompted GCC states to hire from
MaqboozaHindustan....
The Long Game!
The Design of the US Power Architecture was to install the
GanguFacistRegime as the
policeman in SouthAsia, SouthEastAsia and Kabulistan.... hence, it gave the
RAW free hand...
Chabahar was part of this
deal/understanding with Persia... which also looked the other way whence
The Monkey was operating his terror network from there in
Balochistan and
Karachi...
Persia is a Rational Actor!
CPEC. CPEC. CPEC....
nobody wants CPEC.
Only China and Pakistan want it...
Friends, Foes and Brothers... don't like
Gawadar or CPEC... why
Change The Game they think and they act!
But now Russia also wants CPEC...
Tukiye wants CPEC.
Malaysia wants CPEC.
$3+Trillion Insecurity!
GCC combined spends between
$200 to $250 Billion on 'Defence'... that is about
$2+Trillion in last
10 years..and if we go post 9/11... it would be more than
$5Trillion. And the GCC still needs the US to have
bases...
men and horses... to protect itself against Persia!
That is rather expensive Insecurity!
As we have seen the
RoI of ProxyWars is much higher than the most expensive
WeaponSystems....
Yemen is a Case in Point... and same goes for the US in Kabulistan, Iraq, Syria and Africa...
And then the OrangeBall broke The Rules of The Game!
NeoCon and
TheThirdActor might or might not be in it... it might just be Trump wanting to be a Hero to avert attention from domestic din... whatever it was... it
Broke The Rules of The Game...
And then started the back channel
appeasement/negotiations with Persia...
$5Trillion of Inseurity....
KingBibi went
underground and distanced Israle from the Rule Breaking! Persians mourned. They did!
They mounted The Red Flag.
Trump panicked!
The
OrangeBall tweeted his panic!!! And some more tweets...and then
OrangeBall went
pussy...and said he won't bomb
CulturalSites if that is against the law!
Persia rattled its sabbers. Hizbolah spoke. Israle went quiet.
Persia promised
SevereRevenge....
Persia mourned and tweeted...
Numbers were flouted by
OrangeBall and so did
Persian President. Hot Retohric all around....
WorldWar3...
doom.
Persia needed to demonstrate that it is now once again a
Probable Independent Actor... back channel negotiations...
promises...
lollypops... then actual benefits...
but to Persian Credit... it didn't take any of that... and chose Prestige.
Deal was stuck... we saw
US Congress putting OrangeBall in its place... we saw 'world leaders' giving
meaningless statements...
We saw Pakistan saying flat NO to Yanks and then the recognition by the
Tweet of US DefSec...about COAS 'council'....
The Actors in The Game all agreed that
Persia is in its Right to extract '
revenge'
but only just...
So we saw a wolly of
BMs without much bang...falling on empty bases... and the '
world' saw that the
US took it lying down... and
all of $5Trillion Insecurity and all of those bases and fighter planes... went dead.
Trump broke the Rules...
so got spanked...
The speech by the
OrangeBall had to be the
weakest speech in the
History of the US... that blatant acceptance of spanking.
And as it was
agreed and
approved by all
TheActors of TheGame ...no Yankiz would die.. to avoid a
WorldWar3.
Where now stands The Game?
The Score?
- The US is the biggest army/navy/airforce the world has ever seen. It could destroy any country and send it back to StoneAge.... It still can to many countries... in Africa, ME ..and South America. But it doesn't have that impunity which it enjoyed in Hyperpower times...
- Persia has regained its Deterence and has proven once again that it is The Probable Independent Actor.
- The $5Trillion Insecurity still stands.
- Israle can break the sound barriers over Beruit and bomb some odd targets in Syria. Can do whatever it wants in WestBank and Gaza... but thats about it... It can keep on with its CovertOps and remain a powerful stakeholder in TheThirdActor. Thats about it!
- Russia is now firmly in place and has less time on its side...after Crimea.. it cann't expand..and just wishes to consolidate its gains and keep Europe in its GasGrip...market share matters.
- China is the biggest consumer and trading partner of ME oil and needs some more... PRC needs to invest $Trillions to create a New Global Financial Architecture... it shall do so first with Dollars... The Chinese wish to invest $400+Bln in Persia and aslo some in GCC...mostly Iraq and Syria... so Big NO, NO... to WorldWar3.
- CPEC is here to stay and so is Gawadar ... if Friends, Foes and Brother like it or not.. immaterial.
To get Nukiz or Not to get Nukiz?
Persian becoming a
NuclearState is something that
all Actors within ME Game and on
GlobalGame agree that the anwser is
NO.
It will set a chain reaction of meltdown proportions... and turn
GlobalEconomy into mud.
And most certainly it will be a double trouble for Pakistan to have two powers on his right and left with nuclear weapons...
The US needs to exit from ME...but it cann't leave a totally
Independent Persian Actor either.
TheThridActor doesn't wish to remain without the US cover to hide its
$Trillions Insecurity.
But the US also doesn't wish to concede ME to China and Russia on a platter to fill the gaps.. it will not stop
The Killing Fields.
With the Death of Syria and Iraq
TheThirdActor inculding Israel and Persia are in far better position as their Comprehensive Strength is in balance..
However, without the
US as Disruptor of an Independent Actor... everyone, rightfully, feels the
Existential Anxiety...which needs to be filled in such a way is acceptable to everyone.
EmergingPakistan:
We need an
Actor in
TheGame which is a bridge to all and not ambitious to
Carve Influence... an Actor which can sooth everyone's anxiety and provide the Security that is needed.
In the
Emerging Strategic Security Architecture ... a
US-Persia Grand Bargain which only covers for Israel is a
disastrous proposition..as it will open the
floodgates of
Killing Fields in the
Greater Middle East of which Pakistan is a crucial part.
Pakistan is the
ONLY Actor which has the means to provide security to both Persia and the Rest... furthermore, Pakistan is the ONLY Actor who enjoys the confidence of the US, China, Russia and
TheThirdActor Collective including Israel.
As in the case of
Kabulistan... the
Outsourcing of Security to Pakistan is agreed by all
Actors of The GlobalGame... as similar agreement needs to take place here in the ME.
Pakistan must develop a
joint military wing with Persia to guarantee its anxiety... as must Pakistan deploy its troops and equipment in the
$5Trillion Insecurity Shpere...
It goes without saying that the
Sanctions on Persia then must be lifted.. Pakistan must offer JF Thunder Block3 to all parties in ME including Persia...with localised production...
With increase in Pak workforce in value added sectors of the GCC it is imperative that GCC and Pakistan become a
single market... this must also be offered to
Turkiye and Persia...
All in all Pakistan must be part of the
Grand Bargain with Persia which is about to happen as
OrangeBall indicated...
Petro-Dollar Recycling is not going to be like it was..this is something
TheCollectiveWest must accept since... China is now in for
Recycling as well...
A mere
20% would be needed to have
RealSecurity for GCC and Persia than the current $5Trillion Insecurity...
However, this requires fundamental shift in the
GlobalGame and
ME local Game... acceptance of Pakistan is a must... by just throwing some free
baksheesh... is not going to cut anymore.
Herein there is a sign of Pakistan not taking anyone's side.. though threatened to not go to KL was something which will come to haunt in the longterm to the concerend...
It is high time Pakistan tests its ICBMs and come out of the closet..
Pakistan can and must offer Nuclear Umbrella to GCC and Persia as part of the
Grand Bargain.... both Persia and GCC can
keep on wasting their money and resources to 'buy' influence.. in
ZerosumGame...but everyone then be playing by the
Agreed Rules of TheNewGame after the Grand Bargain with Persia.
With a single market... we can rebuild Iraq and Syria...
However, it is also imperative that we must stop pretending that there is NO Israel.
Israel is reality and a rather
potent one. Most if not all GCC have direct relationships with them.
And for those who think that Persia and Israel are mortal enemies... after Israel the biggest number of
Asiatic Jews live in Persia... and there is
strong proPersia Jewish lobby in the US and Europe...
We must stop fooling ourselves with these
Soundbites of
Superpowers or
Hyperpowers...
Apart from occasional madmen we have
Extremely Rational Actors in the ME Game.
Everything is possible... but it is the Probability that matters.
We need statemen... we need a
StrategicThinker a la Kessinger...
SMQ is non of that. In fact
we don't have statesmen with vision.
For the wannabe secterians...
Remember Allama Iqbal R.A. was Sunni and he went to bring back Quaid e Azma R.A. from London... who was Shia...
The Biggest Tragedy of Secterian Killing Fields in Pakistan is that we have Paks conditioned to be
loyal to outsiders /other states than Pakistan....
Allama Iqbal, Quaid e Azam and all of the founding fathers and millions who died or left behind didn't make
Pakistan for it to become KillingFields but Home for ALL Muslims.
If only Paks, Young and Old, could understand what does
Idea of Pakistan mean...and why
Iqbal and Jinnah wanted it so bad...
If Pakistan wants to become a
Middle Income Country and
curtail the
Rise of GanguFacistRegime... it must become
Security Provider to both Persia and GCC...with explicit acceptance of Israel as reality...
For now
Hotair Brovadoz will continue from
RationalActors .. US and Persia.... we must expect a
TwitterWar and some.... and all this time both
regimes will be dying to come out of the closet and Sing YMCA together.
A Grand Bargain without Pakistan is meaningless!
@Ipcha Mistabra I wonder when you will take a handle in
SumerianScript?
@WebMaster @StormBreaker @Khafee @Slav Defence @Irfan Baloch @The Eagle @HRK @Dubious @MastanKhan @Signalian @Horus @Arsalan @Hakikat ve Hikmet @cabatli_53 @Vergennes @Verve @Reddington @Rafi @Great Janjua @masterchief_mirza @SIPRA @Flight of falcon @maximuswarrior @Vortex @PakSword
@WebMaster @Slav Defence my dear Paks, I believe this piece might offer us a
Framework to
Rationaly understand ME and our place in it.
Kindly, make it sticky.. and when brovadoz and counter brovadoz die down a bit..please, merge the threads regarding killing of the Iranian General and Persian responce and all in between... we can have a great source of
Case Study in RealPolitieck!
