SIPRA
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Theory of Rationality... The Game Theory ... what a practical demonstration we just saw, US-Iran muk-muka.
It is once again validated!!!
No wonder it is part of Artificial Intelligence Alogrithm ... especially in forecasting scenarios ...in policy/foreign policy and Wargaming!
All ThreeAntagonists are back in The Prisoner's Dilema...back to the agreed Rules of The Game!
Since, 1979 The Game was agreed... as we saw in the FirstGreatAfghanWar.
Persia had its dedicated jihadi groups in Kabulistan...with full US support... as did US-Arab financed Pak trained Mujahideen.
It was all kosher back then with Israel providing weapons to 'Islamist Terrorists' without Star of David in order not to embarrass Zia ...
Mard e Momin ... Mard e Haq.. Zial ul Haq... Zia ul Haq... what a funny world that was...
However, Zia was an extremely RationalActor and played The Game with agreed Rules...
He was the best choice at that moment for PakState and the Rest of the InternationalActors. But when he broke the rules of making Pakistan NuclearState in 1985-86... he was punished... midair Boom!
He chose Pakistan's Strategic Interests over the interests of the InternationalActors. So, the price had to be paid. He did everything for Pakistan!
Iran-Iraq-War was at the behest of TheThirdActor and also to keep a highly probable IndependentActor, Persia, from emerging... Soviets and Americans agreed to support Saddam...with the full support of TheThirdActor.
Hence, with support/agreement of the Rest against probable IndependentActor, Persia, we saw a useless, purposeless war...which only brought death and destruction and ended without any conclusion... unlike FirstGreatAfghanWar which provided Pakistan's First StrategicRelief to China, Europe and the US...becoming HyperPower in 1989!
The liberation of the EasternEurope is courtesy Pakistan...paid in full with Afghan and PakBlood...heroin and AK47...and millions of Afghan refugees to boot!
And we are still paying for it!!! Let us NEVER forget APS>
However, the TwoActors won The Game!
OurLivesDontMatter ...we are CannonFodder for last 200years...and counting!
We can all go the AC with Roosevlet and see what is happening there...
Or we can go to a certain balcony in Persia..and see what Churchil/Stalin are they doing there...
So all these Brovadoz of CyberMediaCells or impotent hypernationalism are exactly that Brovadoz....
TheThirdActor didn't want SyrianUnification and we saw Slaughter in Lebanon... oh, those BeruitDelights...them plump BellyDancers... ExocticNights while the KillingFields continued... yes, some brotherhood that!
The probable IndepedentActor, Persia, needed breathing space and a pressure point on TheThirdActor... with willing dispossessed majority... we got Hizbollah!
With Yanks there in Lebanon pressure on Persia would continue so thay had to go... BeruitBarrakBombings... Marines went to heavens... YankiRevenge promised.... But them ExoticNights and BellyDancers... continued... NightLove is in the air!!!
Pakistan saw 'Islamization of Zia' ....FazoolMullahMaffia got rich and madrassaz got bigger... SupplyLines of the CannonFodder so that the US could defeat the Soviets..all kosher still... all halal... all justified and glorified in the WesternMarasiMedia!
IslamicFoundingFathers in DaWhitehouse... and Regan shooting Aliens with his Starwarz.... Persia boxed... The Game!
IranContra and much more behind the scenes... the US loves Persia... and wished/wishes to keep everyone in straight line... some Game!
It is imperative that we don't forget that in Iran-Iraq war we helped Persia with train loads of goodies...which the Ruling Persian Elite gratefully accepted.
We NEVER harmed Persia!
Then we saw Persia entered Pakistan to counter TheThridActor ... and we had the Red... TheKillingFields of SecterianHeaven... which still has left deep traumas, mistrust and fractures... all because of The Game!
It was/is pure business, nothing personal... and PakLivesDontMatter... we allowed this as people, as PakState... so we should look within than seek escape of blamegames.... Persia is a RationalActor...
With the wrapping up of FirstGreatAfghanWar it was time for YankRevenge for BeruitBombings ... Flight 655 went Boom ...while the USS Vincennes was lurking in the Iranian TerritorialWaters...
Khomeini announced mourning for 290 souls...and ended the Iran-Iraq War. It was Feb 1988.
General Zia's C130 went Boom in August 1988.
Partytime in D.C and Iraq rebuild started. So did Persia. And of course, China opened up...Getting Rich was/is Glorious!
In the same time period KSA bought BMz from China with full US support... Sino-US were in the same camp in The Game... courtesy Pakistan!
However, we got santioned to our neck by the US and were made to eat soybeans instead of flying F Solaz.. feeding Afghan Refugees and preparing Benazir's Talibans... with the help of KSA n GCC combine.... Persia did too with GanguDaesh... the results we know!
Saddam got restless and tried to extend his ArabBrotherhood... the US called Persia. Everyone was onboard... FirstGulfWar a resounding success of close cooperation between Persia, the US and TheThirdActor!
The US supported Taliban through Pak-KSACombine... Talibanz in Texas talking deals... those were the days of GoodTalibanz...
Russia under Putin and China keeping its head down buying its time...
Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo... nobody seen PakKashmiris as humans same as Paks.... CannonFodder is Cheap!
In all these years we had the delight of listening to Bush Sr. declaring The New World Order ... Clinton teaching us It Is The Economy Stupid...
DotCom Bubble Busting.
Karl Rove becoming the Bush Jr. Brain... privilge of reading The New American Century... NeoCons were partying and ridding the Surfboars on the Waves of Hybperpower
And all this time terrorists in the Caves of Kabulistan were planning the biggest TerrorStrike in History and pulled it off too... to create collective trauma in the Deep Global Subconcious...
StoneAge became the kismat of Kabulistan and WMDs made Iraq dead...
Persia helped the US to remove BadTalibanz and EvilSadam.... US-Persia Friends Forever!!!
And we chose not to go back to StoneAge and helped the Yanks to remove terrorists...
Ganguz made a nest in NDS and we lost 80+K Paks and $220+Bln to economy...and counting... and then Birth Pangs of the New MiddleEast started ...and NRO landed in Pakistan to create DarkDecade of absolute loot and plunder... resulting is total EconomicTerrorism and we becoming AbsoluteBeggarz! AllooGosht in Londonistan!!
Condy, Condy..what a naughty girl you are! But you play good piaono!!!
5 Countries in 7 years... was all the Rage in D.C ThinkTankLand.... but Persia had different plans... quick sands of Iraq and Caves of Kabulistan got the Hyperpower back to Superpower...
Persia could breath... and there was the growing PersianLobby in the US Deepstate which wanted a Grand Bargain...
Ryan Crocker... the New Lawarnce of Persia ...speaking his fluent Farsi, Urdu and of course, Arabic... wanted Persia to be StrategicPartner of the US and let Paks eat soybeans... or mud for all he cared.
Obama was the man of Peace for killing more with his drones... yes, The Nuclear Deal finally happened...now the US and Persia could create the New Middle East together...
But not so fast!
Israel couldn't smash Hizbolah...to the dismay of TheThridActor Collective!!!
Syria offered a new hope...but first Persia and then Russia... got in and crushed the hounds of hell... the agents of terror...
The US worked together with Persia in Iraq and Syria to contain/crush the Hounds of Hell... Persia and the US... playing by the Agreed Rules! Friends Forever!
TheThirdActor in The Game wasn't so happy... NeoCons without any thing to party... so we got OrangeBall...
In all those years of Birth Pangs and Hyperpowerism.. Persia gain strengthed.... made up with Russia as both needed each other.. and then there is China... hungry for raw materials..ever ready to do business!
So, Persia increased its Comprehensive National Strength to the Angst of TheThridActor which looked on in paralysed motion... other than hotair retohric it could do nothing against Persia.
Both the US and Persia played with Agreed Rules.
Even Israel played with those rules... never broke it... it is immaterial that it could break the sound barrier over Beruit or bomb Syria... immaterial because these two states have no comparable force... so the little impunity is allowed... but after 2006... it is All Playing by The Rules of The Game!
From PakPerspective it is vital that we understand that the GanguFacistEntity gained foothold in GCC at the prompting of the US which convined/forced its GCC allies to increase the share of GanguWorkforce and invest in their local economy.... beacuse an economically viable FacistState is needed to CounterChina...
In this we must also take the blame of being dead... all the focus of ZardariRegime was to admire the Cuves of DollarGirls and NooraRegime wanted to swim in AllooGosht sea... Moneylaundering is PakNationalSport!
We lost GCC because of our interia and the US wishing to prop up FacistState against China.
It is imperative to jog our memory...that in the early days of labour force in GCC... Paks were on top... and it was the US which asked/forced/prompted GCC states to hire from MaqboozaHindustan.... The Long Game!
The Design of the US Power Architecture was to install the GanguFacistRegime as the policeman in SouthAsia, SouthEastAsia and Kabulistan.... hence, it gave the RAW free hand...
Chabahar was part of this deal/understanding with Persia... which also looked the other way whence The Monkey was operating his terror network from there in Balochistan and Karachi... Persia is a Rational Actor!
CPEC. CPEC. CPEC.... nobody wants CPEC.
Only China and Pakistan want it... Friends, Foes and Brothers... don't like Gawadar or CPEC... why Change The Game they think and they act!
But now Russia also wants CPEC...
Tukiye wants CPEC.
Malaysia wants CPEC.
$3+Trillion Insecurity!
GCC combined spends between $200 to $250 Billion on 'Defence'... that is about $2+Trillion in last 10 years..and if we go post 9/11... it would be more than $5Trillion. And the GCC still needs the US to have bases... men and horses... to protect itself against Persia!
That is rather expensive Insecurity!
As we have seen the RoI of ProxyWars is much higher than the most expensive WeaponSystems.... Yemen is a Case in Point... and same goes for the US in Kabulistan, Iraq, Syria and Africa...
And then the OrangeBall broke The Rules of The Game!
NeoCon and TheThirdActor might or might not be in it... it might just be Trump wanting to be a Hero to avert attention from domestic din... whatever it was... it Broke The Rules of The Game...
And then started the back channel appeasement/negotiations with Persia...
$5Trillion of Inseurity.... KingBibi went underground and distanced Israle from the Rule Breaking! Persians mourned. They did!
They mounted The Red Flag.
Trump panicked!
The OrangeBall tweeted his panic!!! And some more tweets...and then OrangeBall went pussy...and said he won't bomb CulturalSites if that is against the law!
Persia rattled its sabbers. Hizbolah spoke. Israle went quiet.
Persia promised SevereRevenge.... Persia mourned and tweeted...
Numbers were flouted by OrangeBall and so did Persian President. Hot Retohric all around.... WorldWar3... doom.
Persia needed to demonstrate that it is now once again a Probable Independent Actor... back channel negotiations...promises... lollypops... then actual benefits... but to Persian Credit... it didn't take any of that... and chose Prestige.
Deal was stuck... we saw US Congress putting OrangeBall in its place... we saw 'world leaders' giving meaningless statements...
We saw Pakistan saying flat NO to Yanks and then the recognition by the Tweet of US DefSec...about COAS 'council'....
The Actors in The Game all agreed that Persia is in its Right to extract 'revenge' but only just...
So we saw a wolly of BMs without much bang...falling on empty bases... and the 'world' saw that the US took it lying down... and all of $5Trillion Insecurity and all of those bases and fighter planes... went dead.
Trump broke the Rules... so got spanked...
The speech by the OrangeBall had to be the weakest speech in the History of the US... that blatant acceptance of spanking.
And as it was agreed and approved by all TheActors of TheGame ...no Yankiz would die.. to avoid a WorldWar3.
Where now stands The Game?
The Score?
- The US is the biggest army/navy/airforce the world has ever seen. It could destroy any country and send it back to StoneAge.... It still can to many countries... in Africa, ME ..and South America. But it doesn't have that impunity which it enjoyed in Hyperpower times...
- Persia has regained its Deterence and has proven once again that it is The Probable Independent Actor.
- The $5Trillion Insecurity still stands.
- Israle can break the sound barriers over Beruit and bomb some odd targets in Syria. Can do whatever it wants in WestBank and Gaza... but thats about it... It can keep on with its CovertOps and remain a powerful stakeholder in TheThirdActor. Thats about it!
- Russia is now firmly in place and has less time on its side...after Crimea.. it cann't expand..and just wishes to consolidate its gains and keep Europe in its GasGrip...market share matters.
- China is the biggest consumer and trading partner of ME oil and needs some more... PRC needs to invest $Trillions to create a New Global Financial Architecture... it shall do so first with Dollars... The Chinese wish to invest $400+Bln in Persia and aslo some in GCC...mostly Iraq and Syria... so Big NO, NO... to WorldWar3.
To get Nukiz or Not to get Nukiz?
- CPEC is here to stay and so is Gawadar ... if Friends, Foes and Brother like it or not.. immaterial.
Persian becoming a NuclearState is something that all Actors within ME Game and on GlobalGame agree that the anwser is NO.
It will set a chain reaction of meltdown proportions... and turn GlobalEconomy into mud.
And most certainly it will be a double trouble for Pakistan to have two powers on his right and left with nuclear weapons...
The US needs to exit from ME...but it cann't leave a totally Independent Persian Actor either.
TheThridActor doesn't wish to remain without the US cover to hide its $Trillions Insecurity.
But the US also doesn't wish to concede ME to China and Russia on a platter to fill the gaps.. it will not stop The Killing Fields.
With the Death of Syria and Iraq TheThirdActor inculding Israel and Persia are in far better position as their Comprehensive Strength is in balance..
However, without the US as Disruptor of an Independent Actor... everyone, rightfully, feels the Existential Anxiety...which needs to be filled in such a way is acceptable to everyone.
EmergingPakistan:
We need an Actor in TheGame which is a bridge to all and not ambitious to Carve Influence... an Actor which can sooth everyone's anxiety and provide the Security that is needed.
In the Emerging Strategic Security Architecture ... a US-Persia Grand Bargain which only covers for Israel is a disastrous proposition..as it will open the floodgates of Killing Fields in the Greater Middle East of which Pakistan is a crucial part.
Pakistan is the ONLY Actor which has the means to provide security to both Persia and the Rest... furthermore, Pakistan is the ONLY Actor who enjoys the confidence of the US, China, Russia and TheThirdActor Collective including Israel.
As in the case of Kabulistan... the Outsourcing of Security to Pakistan is agreed by all Actors of The GlobalGame... as similar agreement needs to take place here in the ME.
Pakistan must develop a joint military wing with Persia to guarantee its anxiety... as must Pakistan deploy its troops and equipment in the $5Trillion Insecurity Shpere...
It goes without saying that the Sanctions on Persia then must be lifted.. Pakistan must offer JF Thunder Block3 to all parties in ME including Persia...with localised production...
With increase in Pak workforce in value added sectors of the GCC it is imperative that GCC and Pakistan become a single market... this must also be offered to Turkiye and Persia...
All in all Pakistan must be part of the Grand Bargain with Persia which is about to happen as OrangeBall indicated...
Petro-Dollar Recycling is not going to be like it was..this is something TheCollectiveWest must accept since... China is now in for Recycling as well...
A mere 20% would be needed to have RealSecurity for GCC and Persia than the current $5Trillion Insecurity...
However, this requires fundamental shift in the GlobalGame and ME local Game... acceptance of Pakistan is a must... by just throwing some free baksheesh... is not going to cut anymore.
Herein there is a sign of Pakistan not taking anyone's side.. though threatened to not go to KL was something which will come to haunt in the longterm to the concerend...
It is high time Pakistan tests its ICBMs and come out of the closet..
Pakistan can and must offer Nuclear Umbrella to GCC and Persia as part of the Grand Bargain.... both Persia and GCC can keep on wasting their money and resources to 'buy' influence.. in ZerosumGame...but everyone then be playing by the Agreed Rules of TheNewGame after the Grand Bargain with Persia.
With a single market... we can rebuild Iraq and Syria...
However, it is also imperative that we must stop pretending that there is NO Israel.
Israel is reality and a rather potent one. Most if not all GCC have direct relationships with them.
And for those who think that Persia and Israel are mortal enemies... after Israel the biggest number of Asiatic Jews live in Persia... and there is strong proPersia Jewish lobby in the US and Europe...
We must stop fooling ourselves with these Soundbites of Superpowers or Hyperpowers...
Apart from occasional madmen we have Extremely Rational Actors in the ME Game.
Everything is possible... but it is the Probability that matters.
We need statemen... we need a StrategicThinker a la Kessinger... SMQ is non of that. In fact we don't have statesmen with vision.
For the wannabe secterians... Remember Allama Iqbal R.A. was Sunni and he went to bring back Quaid e Azma R.A. from London... who was Shia...
The Biggest Tragedy of Secterian Killing Fields in Pakistan is that we have Paks conditioned to be loyal to outsiders /other states than Pakistan....
Allama Iqbal, Quaid e Azam and all of the founding fathers and millions who died or left behind didn't make Pakistan for it to become KillingFields but Home for ALL Muslims.
If only Paks, Young and Old, could understand what does Idea of Pakistan mean...and why Iqbal and Jinnah wanted it so bad...
If Pakistan wants to become a Middle Income Country and curtail the Rise of GanguFacistRegime... it must become Security Provider to both Persia and GCC...with explicit acceptance of Israel as reality...
For now Hotair Brovadoz will continue from RationalActors .. US and Persia.... we must expect a TwitterWar and some.... and all this time both regimes will be dying to come out of the closet and Sing YMCA together.
A Grand Bargain without Pakistan is meaningless!
@Ipcha Mistabra I wonder when you will take a handle in SumerianScript?
@WebMaster @StormBreaker @Khafee @Slav Defence @Irfan Baloch @The Eagle @HRK @Dubious @MastanKhan @Signalian @Horus @Arsalan @Hakikat ve Hikmet @cabatli_53 @Vergennes @Verve @Reddington @Rafi @Great Janjua @masterchief_mirza @SIPRA @Flight of falcon @maximuswarrior @Vortex @PakSword
@WebMaster @Slav Defence my dear Paks, I believe this piece might offer us a Framework to Rationaly understand ME and our place in it.
Kindly, make it sticky.. and when brovadoz and counter brovadoz die down a bit..please, merge the threads regarding killing of the Iranian General and Persian responce and all in between... we can have a great source of Case Study in RealPolitieck!
A highly imaginative discourse, with a lot of illuminating propositions. It gives a very strong ray of hope, to the disillusioned people of Pakistan and the realm of available geopolitical possibilities, if we are capable enough to tap them.
Highly appreciate it. +10 rating from an unauthorized mod, that is me.
