$400Bln to be Uploaded in the First Five Years!!!
25 Years of Journey on the Road to an AsianOrder ... Pakistan is The Heartland!!!
Of course, with twists, turnds, roadblocks, conflicts and unthinkables..
. but the Journey has STARTED!!!
Deconstructiong Sino-Iranian Strategic 25 Years Deal:
- The process of coming to this Strategic-Deal is long one... although now being made public, it appears to have been signed last year. Only now brought to public domain... as the multidimensional tensions/pressurs mount on Iran and China.
- To say that the Deal is only between Two Sovereign State is correct and false at the same time... it more of an Strategic-Economic-Industrial-Security-Geoplitics all messhed into One Framework with consequence for Europse, ME, CentralAsia, West/SouthAsia and Kabulistan!
- With the upfront Chinese Investments of $280Bln in Iranian Oil, Gas and Petrochemical industrial upgrade and expansion ... the pressure on other producers of the same will be immense.
- The deal gives the Chinese First-Offer/Bidding rights and considerable concessions in price discount... and once again this will have negative for overall energy and pertrochemical sectors... since, China is the biggest buyer and its consumption/puchase will only grow!
- With Transfer of Technoloy and Skills development IRI could finally become totally independent in the energy and pertrochemcial sector.
- The payments will be in non $ mode helping Iran to de-couple with the DollarSystem. Also, China will be paying in the beginning with soft-currency basket which it has gained through Yuan swap ... this will be for only start up period of purchase though.
- Another upfront, equally signifcant, Chinese Investment of $120Bln (in first 5 years) in the Iranian Industrial sector and infrastructure sector upgrade will be boon for Iranian industry to gain global level production standards and further enhance the Iranian drive towards self-sufficiency!
- Naturally, the upgrade of Iranian Industrial sector is not limited to civilian parts but also covers the upgradation of the Iranian Military Industrial Complex with latest Chinese Technology and Know-Hows...
- At the end of five years as similar amount of Chinese Investment will be available if both sides agree or it could be in other sectors or joint-ventures.
Regional and Global Implications for Sino-Iranian 25Yrs Plan:
- IRI has long been trying to de-couple with the DollarSystem this deal gives Iran much more room to withstand sanctions and also export its products from oil, gas, petrochemical to industrial and farm produce
- This deal might also help Iranian OilBeurs to become more operational or it might also become sub-set of Shanghai OilBeurs.
- With upfront $400Bln investments in first five years the economic growth will help the Iranians to curb inflation or introduce new denominations of their currency... not to overlook the employment generation and skills development of the young population.. meaning socio-economic stability.
- Iran might also find it convenient to use DitialYuang Ecosystem to bypass SWIFT with its trading partners ... which would be Net Strategic Gain for both Iran and China
- China is in the process of creating an Buyer's 'OPEC' and Iran like Russia will be key players in this making the Shanghai OilFutures/Trading/SpotTrading a success with direct conseqences for NY/City InvestmentBanks and OilBeurs there... in otherwords, it will put enormus pressure on PetroDollar.
- GCC's one month contract system for oil sales will come under massive pressure ..certainly, more so due to cheap-oil and pandemic after-effects! This in itself will cause distress on the FinancialHoldings and Leveraged Assets in the Petro-DollarSystem...
- China being the largest consumer of energy will be coming more assertive in trading in Yuan for oil/energy purchases.
- With WeaponsEmbargo official ending in Oct this year ...both Russia and China will be able to sell weapons to Iran...
Whereas China will be more restrained in selling 'too' offensive weapons to Iran to keep a balance with its GCC partners... Russia will not be bothered by such finesse. This can also be based on ToT for fighterjects or sale of S400... China more likely will be selling airdefence systems as well... or helping Iran to upgrade its own systems.
- CyberSecurity will be another StrategicArea of cooperation between China and Iran...
- Commerical jets from China will also be available to Iran ...this will help Iran to put diplomatic pressure on Europeans... or better said Iran's Options widen...
- Both Chinese and Russian navies will be able to avail Iranian ports including Chabahar ...they have already conducted trilatral naval exercises
- Iran will be able to expand its alliances and help the already allied with more financial and material support... this will put pressure in different theatre on different Players ... on Turkiye in Syria and on KSA in Yemen ...
- CPEC will become even more critical for China and Pakistan... and indirectly making Iran also a stake-holder in CPEC protection and stability.
- India by not buying Iranian oil/gas despite having used Iran for its strategic gains ...paying IRI in its own currency and buy Iranian energy dirt cheap... dragging feet on Chabahar... has made India an irrelevant, non-player in Sino-Iranian StrategicEquation.
- By making Russia and China stakeholders in Iran's Economic and Security Infrastructure ... SCO is more secured and Iran has gained leverage as well..
- UAE's trade will Iran grow further as cheap-oil and pandemic has negative effect on their economy... a recapitalised Iran is a good market for everyone!
- Pak-Iran Gaspipeline might become Pak-Iran-China Pipeline... but not untill Pakistan is out of IMF pit...
- A Sino-Rus-Iran Block is taking shape or rather coming out in the open ... its effects will be felt in Eurasia, East/SouthEastAsia, ME, Europe and Africa.
- EurasianEconomicUnion suits both Iran and Turkiey and both will be a KeyHubs for BRI as well.
- IranianGas can go to Turkiye and Europe using DitialYuan BlockChainEcoSystem.
- Gawadar will now have another stakeholder ... IRI... because of Sino-Iranian Strategic Framework.
- For now Pakistan will have to live as Tounge among Teeth... keeping Strategic Relations with GCC intact and further enhance them in all sphere...if Pakistan wishes to remain relevant for the near future.
Probable Future Dynamcis for the ThirdActor:
- QuintEssence of this Deal is that all the AmericanSanctions on Iran become Impotent because of the Great-Decoupling, giving Iran the Techonological and Economic Freedom to become, in due course, an Independent Actor thus changing the PowerDynamics in the Region and logically effecting beyond.
- The $5Trillion Insecurity becomes even more Insecure due to the Decline of The Empire and its loss of control on ME GrandChessboard, making more room for the ThirdActor to emerge as Equation... for good or bad.
- The Chinese Offer to buy 25% stakes in SaudiAramco will be still on the table ... and given the growing relationship between KSA and China it won't be a bad deal either... However, the benefitiary of PetroDollarSystem won't let it come to pass that easily... since, this will give KSA strategic leverage when dealing with the PetroDollarSystem.
- China and by default Russia now are filling the StrategicSpace left by the declining US... so proxies might pop up again out-of-nowhere... with more unstability in the Region.
- Turkiye is slowly gaining Techonological Independence in defence and coming back to its role of Mediterranean Power... more conflict with Greece/French is on the horizon... and then there is 2023 around the cornder.... TurkishNavalForce needs to grow faster than now!!!
- With this Deal China has effectively integerated Iran into SinoEconomicSphere same as CPEC is doing for Pakistan...
- If China can manage to buy GCC oil in Yuan then GCC will become another integeral part of EurasianEcnomicSphere as well.
- Highly leveraged US Shale, already going belly-up, will make GCC energy supplier to the US as well. Hence, there is going to be Great Strategic Pressure on GCC to trade its energy/petrochemical products in Dollar or Yuan...
The Best Option would be for GCC to sell energy/pertochemical products in their own currencies... where as basket of currencies could be allowed to purchase the local currency. That means Depegging with Dollar and FreeFloat!
TeaLeaves Meditations:
The KillingFields... brother killing brother... head-chopping..become poorer and poorer ... only creating more
Insecurity...
Why? Perhaps we know the answer...perhaps we don't want to accept the answer...
The KillingFields in OurWorld!!!
With the Decline of the US and enterance of China and Russia on the
GrandChessboard of
GreaterMiddleEast makes them them the
Competing SecondActor in the Equation where
the ThridActor remains searching for space, opportunity to gain relevance...
This process shall continue for the foreseeable future.
Since, China is the Buyer and Seller to the GCC and is in Egypt and Turkish
CentralBank already accepting
Yuan ... the possiblity of Peace becomes a little more potent....
BRI will progress creating
EconomicInfrastructure in Asia, Africa and Europe so that EconomicLinkage with
The Middle Kingdom becomes more entrenched... paving the way for
China to become
Developed Country in PerCapitaIncome and break the middle-income trap!
The Great De-Coupling between China and the US is going to put enormus pressure on all countries and
much more so on GCC because of PetroDollarSystem and their enormus investments in the US and the CombinedWest and holding of
T-Bills in $Trillions.
Pakistan needs to formulate its FiveYearIndustrialisation-Economic Plan with key componen of GreaterME, Africa, East/SouthEastAsia and Africa ... EU/America on top.
This would require
Highest Level of Statesmanship and
HyperActive EconomicDiplomacy ...
CPEC is NO Magic Bullet ...
we need to do Legwork and HeavyLifting Ourselves.
The Biggest Challenge for Pakistan will be to become Kazakhstan of GreatMiddleEast ... as
BridgeBuilder,
StrategicPartner and
Net-SecurityPorvider.... thus having a very
well balanced relationship with Iran after this 25yr Deal and with
KSA/UAE/GCC based on long strategic relationship.
After this deal Iran will see its
PerCapitaIncome increase and this could be a market for Pakistan.... infact Pakistan must work on
StrategicEconomicFramework with KSA led GCC on one side and with
Iran-Turkiye on the other...
What would be more threatening for GCC - Su35 or JF17Blk3?
We must also not shy away from selling certain type of weapons to Iran...
we must not let the field open for others...
high time for PakMilitary-Political-Diplomacy!!!
At the same time we must also be in the GCC with boots on the ground!!
A
BemusedObserver will go as far as saying that with both
Iran and
KSA led GCC we must form
JointArmedWings thus ensuring an
Honest, Non-interfering MuslimBrother to all in the Region.
Pakistan needs to become Kazakhstan!!!
Mangus
@Blacklight @Signalian @Slav Defence @PanzerKiel @Ace of Spades @masterchief_mirza @Ark_Angel @RescueRanger @Shotgunner51 @HRK @Dubious @LeGenD @krash @Arsalan @The Eagle @WebMaster @PakSword @Irfan Baloch @jaibi
