The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[OldTwilight]

Iran's fire power will never match the US, even with nukes, that's the reality and the difference between our economy, but our firepower is high enough to increase the enemy's loose versus its benefit. that's the perfect strategy which Iranian leader has chosen for deterrence while not pressuring on the economy.



Building few nukes wont going to change anything, neither on the ground nor on the paper,
You say it's a deterrence, yet it's equally an excuse for US preemptive nuclear invasion as well.
Also they can arrange a nuclear attack on their own troops and blame Iran and then invade Iran by nuclear bombs.


Your rather childish strategy starts from nowhere (as it ignores the existing state) and ends in nowhere, as it didn't for soviets and Russians.

there is something called mutual destruction ...


even usa doesn't want to start a war which will bring mads destruction toher main land

 

[vi-va]

there is something called mutual destruction ...


even usa doesn't want to start a war which will bring mads destruction toher main land

1. Mutual Destruction need thousands nuke warhead with equivalent tons of TNT about 800,000.
2. I don't think Iran can get an advanced nuclear warhead without a series of testing.
3. Delivering thousands of nuke warhead need trillions dollar infrastructure and missiles.

• So Iran can get a few nuke warheads, and a workable delivering system like North Korea
• But no, Iran can't get Mutual Destruction unless Iran want to spend trillions, and no war happened in the middle of the process.

Btw, China doesn't have mutual destruction, China only has Minimum Nuclear Deterrence, and working on Mutual Destruction.

In the 1980s, Soviet hold 40,000 nuclear warheads, while U.S. hold 30,000. This is mutual destruction.

This game is expensive, and can make any country be in bankruptcy.

 

[lydian fall]

Dude, you're braindead if you think Iran has been standing against the US without nukes. I don't want to use the exact term of what has been happening, but it's far from "standing".

Iran has become trapped in a deadend that has resulted in nothing but endless sanctions and complete isolation from the world. The Iranian nuclear program at its present form is a sad joke and it is costing Iran multiple times more than what it should. It's even useless for a small domestic civilian nuclear program.

Even China and Russia are wary of signing deals with Iran. Let alone Europe and North America. Even African countries avoid trade with Iran over US sanctions. Whatever is happening now is far from "standing" against the US. It's just the result of inertia on the parts of Iran and the US, and the natural tendency to keep the status quo instead of changing it at a huge cost.

Their problem with us is not our military nuclear program but our regional power which is a deadly pain inside their bodies

They know that we tested nukes in AMAD project in many hidden and none hidden sites

And they know we have this tech from long ago

They don't want Iran reveive its old power

This is their problem. They want weak Iran like Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen that can get attacked and normalized for good

 

[QWECXZ]

Well on one side it's Iran and on the other side is CIA, MI6, MOSSAD and other EU intelligence services joining forces against us and despite all their efforts not Iran nuclear program has not stopped but continued and progressed and it's not a joke in comparison with regional countries which has no nuclear industry but nuclear reactors ... and it's not just nuclear program but various field of science related to it .. like 800k patients needs isotope ... like this:

Today it's nuclear program tomorrow it'd be your army to negotiate over ... so define red line ..
On the other hand Iran doesn't makes a completely stupid political moves, what was JCPoA & which side hit under table? so IR ain't stupid to sacrifice its economy for the sake of nuclear program and indeed compromised in 2015 the other side ain't after reason ...

You're missing the point.
The point is that the leadership of Iran does not know how to react to the war launched on Iran by the US. They (and their trolls) just pretend that it doesn't exist and the economy is booming, but it's not.

Removing extra IAEA cameras (which even their installation was beyond our obligations to the IAEA in the first place) is nothing but a useless political statement.
Iran does NOT have a nuclear program. If you cannot enrich uranium for civilian purposes to meet your demands, and if you do not have nuclear warheads, you do NOT have a nuclear program.

Their problem with us is not our military nuclear program but our regional power which is a deadly pain inside their bodies

They know that we tested nukes in AMAD project in many hidden and none hidden sites

And they know we have this tech from long ago

They don't want Iran reveive its old power

This is their problem. They want weak Iran like Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen that can get attacked and normalized for good

We did not test nukes in the AMAD project.

 

[lydian fall]

You're missing the point.
The point is that the leadership of Iran does not know how to react to the war launched on Iran by the US. They just pretend that it doesn't exist.

Removing extra IAEA cameras is nothing but a useless political statement.


We did not test nukes in the AMAD project.

It doesn't matter what a random person think in this world

Iran is one top 10 nuclear powers in the world

And if Iran openly tests nukes it will become another North Korea and even China and Russia will become against us because we are considered as outlaws in the world

You guys don't know about sharpness of Iran's policies

 

[QWECXZ]

Oh sanctions, I have one word for you, Russia, now start counting their nuclear warheads.

Yeah? And?
Russia has literally violated the sovereignty of a UN recognized state and as of today, it is the 106th day of war in Ukraine.
If Iran does anything similar to that, Iran will be referred to the UNSC for a no-fly zone faster than Khamenei could say "nukes are haram".
They have completely disconnected Iran from the international economy while Russia continues to be part of the global economy. Don't you see the difference?
Even North Korea which wants to remain disconnected from the world is less isolated than Iran. There are more sanctions on Iran than North Korea and Russia combined.

It doesn't matter what a random person think in this world

Iran is one top 10 nuclear powers in the world

And if Iran openly tests nukes it will become another North Korea and even China and Russia will become against us because we are considered as outlaws in the world

You guys don't know about Iran's policies

Exactly. That's why it doesn't matter what a clueless person like you that knows next to nothing about nukes think.

Iran has never tested a nuke. Not in the AMAD project. Not ever.

 

[lydian fall]

Yeah? And?
Russia has literally violated the sovereignty of a UN recognized state and as of today, it is the 106th day of war in Ukraine.
If Iran does anything similar to that, Iran will be referred to the UNSC for a no-fly zone faster than Khamenei could say "nukes are haram".
They have completely disconnected Iran from the international economy while Russia continues to be part of the global economy. Don't you see the difference?
Even North Korea which wants to remain disconnected from the world is less isolated than Iran. There are more sanctions on Iran than North Korea and Russia combined.


Exactly. That's why it doesn't matter what a clueless person like you that knows next to nothing about nukes think.

Iran has never tested a nuke. Not in the AMAD project. Not ever.

If a silly like u had power and tested AMAD and similar projects openly on the ground the US had cause to arm all of our neighbors with nukes and legitimize israeli nukes and multiple them for "self-defense"

In addition Iranian economy have been cut off long ago

 

[QWECXZ]

Iran's fire power will never match the US, even with nukes, that's the reality and the difference between our economy, but our firepower is high enough to increase the enemy's loose versus its benefit. that's the perfect strategy which Iranian leader has chosen for deterrence while not pressuring on the economy.



Building few nukes wont going to change anything, neither on the ground nor on the paper,
You say it's a deterrence, yet it's equally an excuse for US preemptive nuclear invasion as well.
Also they can arrange a nuclear attack on their own troops and blame Iran and then invade Iran by nuclear bombs.


Your rather childish strategy starts from nowhere (as it ignores the existing state) and ends in nowhere, as it didn't for soviets and Russians.

Dude, how many missiles does Iran have?
3K, 5K, 10K? More than 20K?

How many targets are in the region for our missiles?
Realistically, we need over 50 missiles for the complete destruction of a single airport beyond repair.
And how many such airports are around us?
How many other important assets are around us?
What is the rate of technical failure of our missiles? Or you want to assume that all of our missiles will hit their targets without even a single one failing?

A single tactical nuke can completely wipe out enemy's important installations in the blink of an eye.

If a silly like u had power and tested AMAD project openly on the ground the US had cause to arm all of our neighbors with nukes

And Iranian economy have been cut off long ago

More than now? You think the Iranian economy has not been cut off the world?
Can you please show me one country that is more economically isolated than Iran?
Can you please show me one country in the world where their friends and allies seize their assets and announce it publicly that we can't give it back to you because of the unilateral sanctions of the US?

 

[raptor22]

You're missing the point.
The point is that the leadership of Iran does not know how to react to the war launched on Iran by the US. They (and their trolls) just pretend that it doesn't exist and the economy is booming, but it's not.

Removing extra IAEA cameras (which even their installation was beyond our obligations to the IAEA in the first place) is nothing but a useless political statement.
Iran does NOT have a nuclear program. If you cannot enrich uranium for civilian purposes to meet your demands, and if you do not have nuclear warheads, you do NOT have a nuclear program.


We did not test nukes in the AMAD project.

Well Iran could have installed 43k IR1 in Natanz in order to claim an industrial nuclear program but it was waste of resources and time ... instead Iran continued its R&D and now have reliable faster centrifuges with more capacity that makes an industrial nuclear program feasible. We have the knowledge from mine to rod ... many countries have enrichment program without nukes like Japan ... the point is Iran agreed upon JCPoA as most robust regime of inspection and still it wasn't enough for the other side.

On Iranian leadership I agree that this issue has taken long time and mostly it happens due to they not knowing the world and its rapid changes so can not adopt themselves ... the only way as I said economical, if governments would be depended on taxes payed by citizen not oil revenue then they gotta be responsible to people otherwise would be removed & replaced .. healty economy is very vital ...

 

[QWECXZ]

Well Iran could have installed 43k IR1 in Natanz in order to claim an industrial nuclear program but it was waste of resources and time ... instead Iran continued its R&D and now have reliable faster centrifuges with more capacity that makes an industrial nuclear program feasible. We have the knowledge from mine to rod ... many countries have enrichment program without nukes like Japan ... the point is Iran agreed upon JCPoA as most robust regime of inspection and still it wasn't enough for the other side.

On Iranian leadership I agree that this issue has taken long time and mostly it happens due to they not knowing the world and its rapid changes so can not adopt themselves ... the only way as I said economical, if governments would be depended on taxes payed by citizen not oil revenue then they gotta be responsible to people otherwise would be removed & replaced .. healty economy is very vital ...

Yes, and that's an achievement. But the question is: what good is IR-6 or IR-2m if Iran does not intend to increase its enrichment capacity and wants to abide by the illegal restrictions of the JCPOA or the discriminatory treatment of the IAEA? Our engineers are competent. The leadership is incompetent and does not have a plan. Or simply doesn't care as long as their f*gly children are in the west.

And I totally agree with the second paragraph of your post.

 

[raptor22]

Yes, and that's an achievement. But the question is: what good is IR-6 or IR-2m if Iran does not intend to increase its enrichment capacity and wants to abide by the illegal restrictions of the JCPOA or the discriminatory treatment of the IAEA? Our engineers are competent. The leadership is incompetent and does not have a plan. Or simply doesn't care as long as their f*gly children are in the west.

And I totally agree with the second paragraph of your post.

Well the leadership was the one that led these engineers to step in this way, secondly having the knowledge & capability per se is valuable as provides you with such a position to go for industrial scale if needed ..

 

[QWECXZ]

Well the leadership was the one that led these engineers to step in this way, secondly having the knowledge & capability per se is valuable as provides you with such a position to go for industrial scale if needed ..

And the leadership is the one that is preventing these scientists from doing anything meaningful that could actually help the nation.
Secondly, at what cost? Iran has lost hundreds of billions of dollars on this joke of a nuclear program for what exactly? Having the know-how without having the balls to implement it?

 

[Hack-Hook]

Yes, and that's an achievement. But the question is: what good is IR-6 or IR-2m if Iran does not intend to increase its enrichment capacity and wants to abide by the illegal restrictions of the JCPOA or the discriminatory treatment of the IAEA? Our engineers are competent. The leadership is incompetent and does not have a plan. Or simply doesn't care as long as their f*gly children are in the west.

And I totally agree with the second paragraph of your post.

save a lot of power and if power is lost , those centrifuge can properly shutdown and like iR-1 won't get trashed

 

[Sineva]

Farewell JCPOA, We Hardly Knew You

https://www.energyintel.com/00000181-711f-dd3e-ab85-73fff4c50000

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Iran are locked in a dispute about the source of radiological particles detected at three undeclared sites in Iran. For the IAEA, the issue is technical: Iran, it maintains, must provide a credible account of how these particles got to where they were detected. For Iran, the matter is political: The intelligence the IAEA relied on to investigate these sites came from Israel, a nation opposed to Iran’s nuclear program and which Iran has accused of manufacturing false intelligence in the past. This dispute has brought to a head issues about the viability of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with Iran’s decision to turn off monitoring cameras making future verification all but impossible. As a result, the JCPOA is all but dead.

Iran’s decision to pull the plug on the IAEA camera-based monitoring system in effect terminates the last remaining vestiges of the enhanced verification measures instituted as part of the JCPOA, more popularly known as the Iran nuclear deal. This has driven a stake through the heart of a negotiation process that sought to bring the US back into the JCPOA process and, in doing so, bring Iran back into conformity with its obligations. The agreement had been languishing since former President Donald Trump precipitously withdrew the US in May 2018. The US withdrawal was followed by the institution of US sanctions that had been ended under the terms of the JCPOA, leading to Iran’s graduated termination of its commitments until such time as US sanctions are lifted.
The decision to turn off the 27 surveillance cameras that had been set up to monitor nuclear activities covered by the JCPOA brings to an end a temporary agreement between Iran and the IAEA, reached in February 2021. That permitted the JCPOA-affiliated cameras to continue recording activity, but withheld the data captured from IAEA scrutiny until US sanctions were lifted. A law passed by Iran's parliament in December 2020 mandated that the Iranian government cease implementation of JCPOA-specific monitoring if the US sanctions were not lifted by Feb. 23, 2021.
This agreement ensured that the record of Iranian compliance that had existed prior to the US withdrawal could be verified as continuing once the images were reviewed. With the cameras now shut down, a verification gap has been created that brings the issue of Iranian compliance back to square one. The odds of the IAEA and Iran being able to recreate an acceptable level of confidence in any future compliance verification regime are significantly reduced, making any revival of the JCPOA difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.

IAEA Resolution
Iran’s decision comes in the wake of a resolution issued by the IAEA Board of Governors that was critical of Iran’s compliance with its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (i.e. standard Safeguards Agreement). However, by raising issues that pertain to actions that Iran believes had been adequately addressed as part of its obligations prior to the JCPOA entering into force, the resolution was indirectly attacking Iranian compliance with the JCPOA itself. The board’s resolution was driven by a critical report issued by the IAEA that criticized Iran’s failure to provide “technically credible explanations” for the presence of uranium particles of anthropogenic origin (i.e. man-made) that had been detected by the IAEA at three locations in Iran — Turquzabad, Varamin and Marivan. Absent any such information from Iran, the IAEA declared that it “cannot confirm the correctness and completeness of Iran’s declarations under its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement.”
The IAEA resolution, when combined with the Iranian decision to shut down the JCPOA-specific monitoring cameras, signals a mutual loss of confidence that, for all intents and purposes, brings to an end negotiations that had been ongoing between Iran, the US, and the other parties to the JCPOA. These negotiations had been deadlocked for some time, but both Iran and the US had publicly held out hope that they could be finalized in the foreseeable future. Without ruling out an eventual future compromise, both Iran and the US have made it clear that bringing the negotiations to fruition under the present circumstances is, for all practical purposes, a bridge too far.

Disputed Intelligence
The heart of the current controversy rests with the IAEA’s demand that Iran provide adequate answers to questions the nuclear watchdog posed about the three locations. Iran has provided explanations that the IAEA deems unacceptable. For its part, Iran has accused the IAEA of acting on fabricated intelligence information from Israel, a longtime opponent of both Iran’s nuclear program and the JCPOA.
The existence of Turquzabad was revealed by then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a speech before the UN General Assembly in September 2018. Turquzabad is a neighborhood in Iran’s capital city of Tehran, where Israel claimed a warehouse served as a secret “atomic archive” for Iran. Israel claims its intelligence services raided the warehouse in January 2018, making off with about 55,000 paper files and 183 CDs containing another 55,000 files. Israel claims that these files, which were estimated to represent 20%-50% of the warehouse’s inventory, catalog Iran’s efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.
One of the problems facing Israel was that, under scrutiny, the files it claimed to have stolen were comprised, at least in part, of the same documents Israel had provided to the IAEA back in 2004 — which makes it look like Israel was simply recycling old intelligence. The veracity of the documents aside, the fact remains that when the IAEA gained access to Turquzabad and two other sites — Varamin and Marivan — identified by Israel as being suspicious in nature, its environmental sampling found evidence of probable yellowcake (processed natural uranium) and low-enriched uranium, with a detectable presence of U-236 and of slightly-depleted uranium.

No Possible Explanation
Iran claims there is no possible explanation for these particles being at the sites in question, and that the only logical explanation is that “an ill-intended third party — namely Zionist regime” (i.e. Israel) contaminated the sites before revealing their location to the IAEA. Iran has not provided any evidence to support this explanation. While this is an extraordinary claim, the admission by Israel that its agents were physically present at Turquzabad previously means it can’t be dismissed out of hand.
None of the nuclear-related activities alleged to have taken place at the three sites occurred after 2003. From Iran’s perspective, the underlying issues underpinning any potential IAEA concerns were already addressed when the issue of “past military dimensions” (PMD) — derived in part from the “alleged studies” documents — was investigated and found to be adequately resolved as part of the IAEA’s final assessment on PMDs released in December 2015. This report was a necessary precondition for the implantation of the JCPOA. Likewise, none of the radioactive particles detected by the IAEA are part of any ongoing activity that had been subjected to stringent monitoring prior to Iran shutting off the JCPOA-specific cameras, which made any covert enrichment all but impossible.
The decision by the IAEA to make its investigation into alleged Iranian activities predating 2003 central to its monitoring mission is curious. The fact that the IAEA Board of Governors’ resolution was drafted by France, Germany and the UK — all parties to the JCPOA — with the consent of the US suggests a political motive. One possibility is that the demands Iran was making to the US regarding the JCPOA were too much of a political ask for President Joe Biden and rather than publicly reverse a campaign pledge to bring the US back into compliance, Washington instead helped insert a poison pill in the form of Israeli intelligence that it knew Iran would reject out of hand.
Regardless of the motive, the fact is that the JCPOA is, from a practical standpoint, all but dead.

 

[mohsen]

Based on the published news from Iranian side, so far US hasn't accepted any deal which would bring Iran the economic benefits, and they don't guarantee their commitments even during Biden presidency. So basically a deal is not viable.

Meanwhile Reformists (American's agents in Iran) have activated to whitewash the Americans in Iranian minds. and they blame anything but their master the US.

So in one article they blame the Iranian negotiating team and demand to change them, and in another article, they blame the Russia for the failure of Doha (Qatar) negotiations!!!

This much blunt and bi-hame-chiz.

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