The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[Bengal71]

They know that we tested nukes in AMAD project in many hidden and none hidden sites

I have never known this although I have been a firm believer for a long time that Iran already has it. Can you point me towards more information on it?

 

[Bengal71]

And they know we have this tech from long ago

Based on the published news from Iranian side, so far US hasn't accepted any deal which would bring Iran the economic benefits, and they don't guarantee their commitments even during Biden presidency. So basically a deal is not viable.

Meanwhile Reformists (American's agents in Iran) have activated to whitewash the Americans in Iranian minds. and they blame anything but their master the US.

So in one article they blame the Iranian negotiating team and demand to change them, and in another article, they blame the Russia for the failure of Doha (Qatar) negotiations!!!

This much blunt and bi-hame-chiz.

ØÙÙ٠ب٠رÙسÛÙ Ø¨Ø±Ø§Û ØªØ¨Ø±Ø¦Ù Ú©Ø§Ø±Ø´Ú©ÙÛ Ø¢ÙرÛکا در Ùذاکرات

در ØاÙÛ Ú©Ù Ùذاکرات Ùطر با کارشکÙÛ Ø¢ÙرÛکا در زÙÛÙÙ Ùغ٠تØرÛÙâÙا ٠ارائ٠تضÙÛÙ Ùعتبر ÙاÙرجا٠ÙاÙØ¯Ø ÛÚ© ÙÙاÛÙد٠ساب٠ÙجÙس Ù ØاÙÛ Ø¯Ù Ø¢ØªØ´Ù Ø¨Ø±Ø¬Ø§Ù Ø§Ø¯Ø¹Ø§ کرد رÙسÛÙ ÙاÙع ب٠ÙتÛج٠رسÛد٠Ùذاکرات دÙØ٠شد٠است.

mshrgh.ir

Are the Iranian people or government interested in a new deal? Did you guys consider that even if you reach a deal with Biden as the president, there is a significant possibility of Trump or the Republicans coming back in 2024 and they can withdraw again? What will be the point of a new deal with the US to start with?

 

[vi-va]

I have never known this although I have been a firm believer for a long time that Iran already has it. Can you point me towards more information on it?

Not possible. Nuclear test is being monitored globally. No one can hide a nuclear bomb testing.

Are the Iranian people or government interested in a new deal? Did you guys consider that even if you reach a deal with Biden as the president, there is a significant possibility of Trump or the Republicans coming back in 2024 and they can withdraw again? What will be the point of a new deal with the US to start with?

Iranians are always very interested in a deal, old or new. Their problem is what benefit they can get from the deal. Trust deficit.

 

[Bengal71]

Not possible. Nuclear test is being monitored globally. No one can hide a nuclear bomb testing.


Iranians are always very interested in a deal, old or new. Their problem is what benefit they can get from the deal. Trust deficit.

If they can get a deal now, the benefits will only last about 2 years. After that Trump or Republicans will come and withdraw from it again.

 

[_Nabil_]

No benefit for Iran for a deal without guarantees of long term continuity.

Even if Iran accept a deal without that guarantees, other western countries, organizations, companies, will never trade, deal or invest in Iran .....

If they can get a deal now, the benefits will only last about 2 years. After that Trump or Republicans will come and withdraw from it again.

Not even 2 years, benefits from a deal won't be immediate, it will take at least 1 year to attract foreign investment, trade, cooperation,.....

Only immediate benefit is more selling Oil.

 

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

No benefit for Iran for a deal without guarantees of long term continuity.

Even if Iran accept a deal without that guarantees, other western countries, organizations, companies, will never trade, deal or invest in Iran .....


Not even 2 years, benefits from a deal won't be immediate, it will take at least 1 year to attract foreign investment, trade, cooperation,.....

Only immediate benefit is more selling Oil.

And immediately receive 100-150 billions frozen in foreign banks.

 

[_Nabil_]

And immediately receive 100-150 billions frozen in foreign banks.

Not sure at all, most of the frozen money and assets been done after 1979.

 

[mohsen]

Are the Iranian people or government interested in a new deal? Did you guys consider that even if you reach a deal with Biden as the president, there is a significant possibility of Trump or the Republicans coming back in 2024 and they can withdraw again? What will be the point of a new deal with the US to start with?

sticking to the old deal puts Iran in a stronger position, cause US is blamed for quitting the deal and has to give more concessions just to return to it, specially when no deal is viable, whether new or old.

 

[Bengal71]

sticking to the old deal puts Iran in a stronger position, cause US is blamed for quitting the deal and has to give more concessions just to return to it, specially when no deal is viable, whether new or old.

Ok but if US withdraws again, what then? Then you have no deal again and I can tell 90% possibility Trump will be back in 2024.

 

[drmeson]

I have never known this although I have been a firm believer for a long time that Iran already has it. Can you point me towards more information on it?

According to Israelis, they came across a 100 page document through an intelligence operation inside Iran that gave them details of a certain "Project Amad" that existed from late 80s, throughout 90s to 2003. CIA estimated Shahi Iran to have tested Nuclear weapons in the early 1980s openly had he been there. So the project apparently never died. So anyways, with this kidnapped bundle of papers, Israelis and Americans estimated that Iran possibly may have conducted multiple cold tests of implosion-type fission devices deep into excavated tunnels in unknown sites in the 1990s-2003 or maybe later as well. American scientists from Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) agreed and published a booklet on this too. They claim that Project AMAD is alive an 10 fold more powerful than what existed in 1003. They divided the AMAD into three sections:

(a) Sophisticated high explosives implosion, which is well within the reach of a nation ranked 9 in STEM R&D output (by SJR). They also mentioned that even from the 90s to 2003 neutron guns to trigger the fission were already designed and devices designed (about side of a car tire) were ready to be mated with the then-premier Iranian delivery vehicle MRBM Shahab-3C (recently retired/evolved in favor of its MaRV descendants few years back).

(b) weapons grade enrichment: Iran has three known underground enrichment facilities (+2 alleged). They also claim that there may be other unknown underground facilities. Last known quantities of known 60 % enriched U235 was 60 kg according to Israelis (45 Kg according to IAEA) which can be enriched to 40 KG weapons-grade 90 % in 1-2 weeks. Iran has both highly efficient centrifugation + laser enrichment mechanisms to accomplish that tasks under mountains without the vulnerability of attack. 40 KG of HEU U235 means around 10 x 4-5 KT implosion fission devices on BM/CM. They called it an "on Demand" system. Lets say a regional alliance gathers up of KSA+Israel+UAE+Turkey to threaten Iran+Iraq+Syria+Hezb-Lebanon and tensions rise etc. There are verbal threats from both sides, two-way airspace breaches, cyberattacks here and there etc. When this would be happening the known quantity will be put on BM/CM/UCAVs while further bulk of 20% known ~250 KG means 50 KG more weapons grade U235 will be enriched for more weaponization. Iran produces more U234 annually than 6 known nuclear-armed countries (including your former countrymen) so this will result in bulking up of weapons very fast.

(c) Delivery mechanism: Over the years Iran has already demonstrated a complete triad of nuclear strike capability or retaliation with:
- Surface Launch from Road mobile TELs using MaRV-BM upto max ~3000 KM (Solid and Liquid ballistic) 1500 km (quasi ballistic, glide), Long range CM from surface (~1500 KM)
- Subsurface underground bases with Silos launching BMs.
- Air launched from Aircrafts, UCAVS. Airlaunched BM and CM are known (150 KM ALBM, 1500 KM ALCM)
- Sea surface launch (CM from ships or TEL on a ship for BM)
- Submarine launched platforms (SLCM).

So according to their claims, Iran is a some sort of a de facto nuclear-armed state. Like Israel itself it wont self declare but keeps the system ready "on-demand". If pushed it will take this route in days. This is probably why it attacks Saoodi aramco refineries, UAE for fun runs proxies in 5 countries, attacks US bases with two dozen Ballistic missiles (not even USSR could do that), and still gets away with it. Pretty much like Israel itself. The problem for Americans, EU, Israel in this scenario is that if they trigger a conflict with Iran, and Iran declares this system to be functional what will stop Turkey, Egypt, KSA from purchasing or making this system? Imagine if egypt purchases nukes and tomorrow there is anti-Israel Ikhwan in power there. So its a dangerous scenario. Also Iranian nukes means Syria, Hezbollah, Houthis and Iraq are under the umbrella too. On the other hand, If they dont trigger a war with Iran, they have a de-facto nuclear armed oil rich power sitting on the neck of the world's most valuable hydrocarbon route with its missiles and is militarily allied with China and Russia. So its a double-edged political sword which is why US, EU, and even Israelis want to talk to Iran. They just did in Doha a week ago. Iran itself keeps on this JCPOA lollipop alive because it knows that the threat of a declaration of nuclear capability is as dangerous as possessing nuclear weapons. so talks continue like an annual chess championship tournament with no side in hurry.

.... or Israelis and Americans are lying as usual to build a case against Iran. Jews in general ethnically are designed to lie while American lied about Iraqi WMD so believe in it at your own will. Maybe poor Iran just wants more electricity and nuclear medicine.

 

[Bengal71]

According to Israelis, they came across a 100 page document through an intelligence operation inside Iran that gave them details of a certain "Project Amad" that existed from late 80s, throughout 90s to 2003. CIA estimated Shahi Iran to have tested Nuclear weapons in the early 1980s openly had he been there. So the project apparently never died. So anyways, with this kidnapped bundle of papers, Israelis and Americans estimated that Iran possibly may have conducted multiple cold tests of implosion-type fission devices deep into excavated tunnels in unknown sites in the 1990s-2003 or maybe later as well. American scientists from Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) agreed and published a booklet on this too. They claim that Project AMAD is alive an 10 fold more powerful than what existed in 1003. They divided the AMAD into three sections:

(a) Sophisticated high explosives implosion, which is well within the reach of a nation ranked 9 in STEM R&D output (by SJR). They also mentioned that even from the 90s to 2003 neutron guns to trigger the fission were already designed and devices designed (about side of a car tire) were ready to be mated with the then-premier Iranian delivery vehicle MRBM Shahab-3C (recently retired/evolved in favor of its MaRV descendants few years back).

(b) weapons grade enrichment: Iran has three known underground enrichment facilities (+2 alleged). They also claim that there may be other unknown underground facilities. Last known quantities of known 60 % enriched U235 was 60 kg according to Israelis (45 Kg according to IAEA) which can be enriched to 40 KG weapons-grade 90 % in 1-2 weeks. Iran has both highly efficient centrifugation + laser enrichment mechanisms to accomplish that tasks under mountains without the vulnerability of attack. 40 KG of HEU U235 means around 10 x 4-5 KT implosion fission devices on BM/CM. They called it an "on Demand" system. Lets say a regional alliance gathers up of KSA+Israel+UAE+Turkey to threaten Iran+Iraq+Syria+Hezb-Lebanon and tensions rise etc. There are verbal threats from both sides, two-way airspace breaches, cyberattacks here and there etc. When this would be happening the known quantity will be put on BM/CM/UCAVs while further bulk of 20% known ~250 KG means 50 KG more weapons grade U235 will be enriched for more weaponization. Iran produces more U234 annually than 6 known nuclear-armed countries (including your countrymen) so this will result in bulking up of weapons very fast.

(c) Delivery mechanism: Over the years Iran has already demonstrated a complete triad of nuclear strike capability or retaliation with:
- Surface Launch from Road mobile TELs using MaRV-BM upto max ~3000 KM (Solid and Liquid ballistic) 1500 km (quasi ballistic, glide), Long range CM from surface (~1500 KM)
- Subsurface underground bases with Silos launching BMs.
- Air launched from Aircrafts, UCAVS. Airlaunched BM and CM are known (150 KM ALBM, 1500 KM ALCM)
- Sea surface launch (CM from ships or TEL on a ship for BM)
- Submarine launched platforms (SLCM).

So according to their claims, Iran is a some sort of a de facto nuclear-armed state. Like Israel itself it wont self declare but keeps the system ready "on-demand". If pushed it will take this route in days. This is probably why it attacks Saoodi aramco refineries, UAE for fun runs proxies in 5 countries, attacks US bases with two dozen Ballistic missiles (not even USSR could do that), and still gets away with it. Pretty much like Israel itself. The problem for Americans, EU, Israel in this scenario is that if they trigger a conflict with Iran, and Iran declares this system to be functional what will stop Turkey, Egypt, KSA from purchasing or making this system? Imagine if egypt purchases nukes and tomorrow there is anti-Israel Ikhwan in power there. So its a dangerous scenario. Also Iranian nukes means Syria, Hezbollah, Houthis and Iraq are under the umbrella too. On the other hand, If they dont trigger a war with Iran, they have a de-facto nuclear armed oil rich power sitting on the neck of the world's most valuable hydrocarbon route with its missiles and is militarily allied with China and Russia. So its a double-edged political sword which is why US, EU, and even Israelis want to talk to Iran. They just did in Doha a week ago. Iran itself keeps on this JCPOA lollipop alive because it knows that the threat of a declaration of nuclear capability is as dangerous as possessing nuclear weapons. so talks continue like an annual chess championship tournament with no side in hurry.

.... or Israelis and Americans are lying as usual to build a case against Iran. Jews in general ethnically are designed to lie while American lied about Iraqi WMD so believe in it at your own will. Maybe poor Iran just wants more electricity and nuclear medicine.

My countrymen? I am Bangladeshi, not Pakistani.

I didn't know this information but I am very confident Iran is a nuclear armed state through other logical deductions. It is as follows:

I always suspected Iran had nukes. Otherwise it doesn't make sense for them to sign the JCPOA because it requires them to reduce their enrichment and handing over enriched Uranium to Russia. It wouldn't make sense Iran would agree to such a thing while they have the big threat of US attacking them. So they must have made some warheads and then signed JCPOA.

And immediately receive 100-150 billions frozen in foreign banks.

This is the only benefit of signing the JCPOA while Biden is in power. After that in 2024 Trump/Republicans will withdraw again and you are back to square one. Also, you maybe able to get delivery of the Airbus aircraft and whatever else you wanted to purchase last time around.

 

[drmeson]

My countrymen? I am Bangladeshi, not Pakistani.

I didn't know this information but I am very confident Iran is a nuclear armed state through other logical deductions. It is as follows:

I always suspected Iran had nukes. Otherwise it doesn't make sense for them to sign the JCPOA because it requires them to reduce their enrichment and handing over enriched Uranium to Russia. It wouldn't make sense Iran would agree to such a thing while they have the big threat of US attacking them. So they must have made some warheads and then signed JCPOA.

Oops sorry man, meant to say ex-countrymen. Corrected.

Yes google ISIS paper on AMAD project it has all the information there.

 

[Bengal71]

Oops sorry man, meant to say ex-countrymen. Corrected.

Yes google ISIS paper on AMAD project it has all the information there.

I like to do geo-political deductive work and try and deduce things from that. Not really rely on technical or secret documents. But that's some good recommendation, I will try to read it if I have time.

 

[mohsen]

Ok but if US withdraws again, what then? Then you have no deal again and I can tell 90% possibility Trump will be back in 2024.

US doesn't want to lift the sanctions, that's why JCPOA failed (read the first post), and that's why negotiations wont reach anywhere. forget Trump, his move was just a strategic mistake which helped Iran condemning US in the world.

Iran wont accept a fragile deal again. there can be guarantees which US (Dems and Repubs) doesn't want to give.

 

[mohsen]

I am very confident Iran is a nuclear armed state through other logical deductions.

Iran has no nukes cause Iranian leader has forbidden it, and no fucking soul in Iran can go against his decision. based on his calculations, we are good without nukes and that will continue.

For your info, US even tried to give Iran some flawed nuclear bomb blueprints so that they could use it later against us.

Several years ago, all US intelligence agencies said that Iran has no nuclear bomb program, to this day, there is zero proof that would prove the otherwise, all the rest are just Zionists propaganda machine and Iranophobia to justify sanctions against an independent country.