The Day After Bombing: A Conversation with an Iranian Businessman

[Surenas]

“To think that because you won’t buy oil from us, you will stop an ancient and courageous empire like ourselves – it’s naïveté.”

S. has been hurt by the economic sanctions, but he promises that his country will reach nuclear capability. “If you attack, we’ll strike you back,” he says; however, he reveals that the real enemy of Iran is overall the Arabs: “You’re just being paranoid.”

The question “What will the day after look like?” surprises S., since I opted to start from the end, actually. Even a little bit after the end, the day after attacking Iran. S.’s face at once becomes serious, he tries to understand what the intention behind the question is, and doesn’t hesitate to express disbelief and contempt that an Israeli or American attack will get underway one day.

The coffee shop in the center of Berlin where S. chose to hold the conversation with me is busy and noisy. A place where S., Iranian businessman, feels safe that nobody will suspect the dangerous contact – for him and for his family living in Iran – between him and a Jewish and Israeli journalist. He arrived in Berlin to convince companies to come back and invest in Iran, – nevertheless, despite this is about deals estimated at billions of euros, so far he got a cold shoulder, polite refusals and postponements to another date. No European company is ready to work against the sanctions that have been imposed on Iran because of its nuclear program, which outrages him big time.

Finally, S. regains his composure and replies: “It is interesting that you’re asking me how the day after the attack will look, when basically, you [the Israelis – K.L.] have already attacked us quite a few times. Just a month ago, you’ve carried out such an assault and killed our expert, a scientist, along with 17 of his men. An expert who is guilty of nothing and has to do with nothing, – therefore, it’s clear to us why you did that and what the objectives of the Israeli operations are: you do everything in order to see and learn what our response would be, so that to drag us into action.

Based on publications in the global media, Iran faces a series of events, accidental or initiated, of harming infrastructures, computers and military facilities, and the thing causes the Iranians to immediately associate any such action with Israel, however, not always officially. S. continues explaining: “Not long ago, an Iranian F-14 fighter jet crashed, and it is obvious to us that you’re standing behind this operation and did this only to check how we will react. I don’t believe that Israel will attack, but if this happens, it will be only to elicit a reaction from our side which would draw the United Stares and the international community into a war against us, – because alone, Israel is unable to pull an effective attack.

“We Are Not Syrians or Iraqis. You Live in an Illusion”

The discourse about a possible assault on Iran, whether American or Israeli, evokes a skeptical, nonetheless, very serious response from his side. According to S., an offensive on Iran should last a long time to yield results, if any. “It has to be an ongoing operation, rather than a single bombing raid,” says S. firmly, adding that “we have nuclear reactors that are impossible to bomb at all. They are built deep underground and surrounded by high mountains that your missiles – or even if you send all your aircraft – won’t be able to hit at the right place, because of the topographical structure.

S. is updated also as to the reports in the Israeli media, which not once mention the attack of the reactor in Iraq and of the Syrian one that was built with the help of the North Koreans. “You are living in an illusion if you’re thinking that this is similar even one iota to the Iraqi or Syrian reactor. Over there, there was one visible and unprotected building waiting for you, and over there, it was easy for you. Couldn’t have been easier. We are not an easy target, and moreover, you know very well that you won’t manage to hurt us and we will strike you back.”

Women Fall to Prostitution, Youth – to Drugs, and the Crime Rises

The conversation with S. again revolves around the subject of the sanctions enforced on Iran, – however, we wanted to know what their impact on the life inside the country is, and not only about the crumbling foreign relations. “Of course, the sanctions are affecting, but it’s not what is going to stop us,” notes S., yet being quick to emphasize the second part of his sentence. “To think that because you won’t buy oil from us, you will stop an ancient and courageous empire like ourselves, it’s naïveté,” he adds proudly, a moment before the hard picture becomes apparent.

S. admits: the life in Iran has become difficult for everyone, the rich and the poor. Fuel prices are soaring and weighing on the industry and commerce, shortage of basic products is already felt in stores, the value of currency erodes daily in uninhibited inflation and the housing prices rise, which means that only a very small part of the Iranians can buy and rent apartments, and many of them come to the streets, in great poverty.

“The problems are obvious. There are significantly more homicides per month than in the past, there are many more robberies and burglaries, more women are forced to succumb to prostitution and the youths are angry as they fail to find job, and a big part of them degenerate to drugs,” he says sadly, but returns to the starting point. “Iran is a huge country, the cities are remote from each other, and the citizens, because of the distance, can’t organize to protest against the sanctions. Yes, we are affected by the sanctions, but this is not what will make us unite against the government.”

God's Representative on Earth Cannot Be Wrong

The hopes for an “Arab Spring” also within Iran’s borders are unrealistic, and S. furnishes a complex explanation for this. “The Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) has long understood that Ahmadinejad ruined the country on his way to realizing the nuclear ambition, and that he made a mistake that he allowed him to unfairly win his second term as president in the elections, but he can’t do a thing about it, certainly not dismiss him.” The explanation to that is religious and not political, as is commonly thought. “In the absence of the 12th Imam (‘the messiah’ of the Shiites), Khamenei is the representative of God on earth, and as such, he cannot err. He appointed Ahmadinejad and thus far, this can’t be wrong. Wait nine months till the next elections.”

Ahmadinejad's Successor Sympathetic to Israel?

S. dwells on that Iran is a country very stable politically since the revolution that lit up the eyes of the public and distanced it from the false Islam, according to him, that tried to obliviate the grand tradition of the Persian people. It’s no longer possible to convince the Iranian people that in the paradise, there are rivers of wine and honey and that every one of them will get 70 virgins. The public woke up and the political system is organized, so a military revolution is an option Ahmadinejad is by no means facing. The army is divided into several separate armies, and it’s impossible to carry out a revolution if not all are united. S. opines that Ahmadinejad tries to cause that Mashaei (formerly deputy commander of the Iranian intelligence services) be his replacement, as he said not once that Mashaei is a role model for him. “Mashaei could win the elections, he is more intelligent than Ahmadinejad and he is also good for you, the Jews. Three years ago, he got in trouble with law when he said that Israel is a friend of Iran and that we don’t have anything against it.”

But until the elections, Ahmadinejad doesn’t hesitate to air statements supporting elimination of Israel, and S. has an explanation for this, as well. “You must understand that there is a large distance between the declarations of Ahmadinejad and the actions he takes or is ready to take, for he’s merely talking and trying to frighten, but he has no intentions to fulfil his threats, despite he has all the ability. The government in Iran is an ideological government, and we have no ideology of destruction of Israel. Ahmadinejad is expressing himself this way in order to attract the Shiites and unite them around the hatred for you. The real enemies of the Iranian Shiites are the Arab Sunnis and, conversely, the biggest enemies of the Sunnis are Jews, so he’s only using you.”

“But you are funding Hezbollah and Hamas who do attack Israel and do the dirty work for you,” – I’m trying to make it harder for S. “Do you really think that Hezbollah interests the rule in Iran?” – he responds dismissively, “actually, during Ahmadinejad’s office, Hezbollah receives less help and money. Supporting them [Hezbollah] will continue, as long as we have no reason to stop it.”

A Nuclear Bomb as an Insurance Policy

S.’s explanations sound full of contradictions. On the one hand, he says Iran doesn’t have any ideology of annihilation of Israel, – still, on the other hand, the nuclear arms race goes on, and the desire to obtain the bomb is obvious to all. We asked him to explain the pursuit of the ability to produce an atomic bomb. “Why would we need an atom bomb?” – S. raises his tone and puts his hands on the table emphatically. “You are to blame. Because of you we have nuclear program and because of you we need a bomb! Look what happened to the Arab countries – Iraq, Afghanistan and others, invaded and conquered by the West. A nuclear program and a bomb, or at least the ability to get to manufacturing a bomb, are not designed to wipe off Israel, but rather to create an insurance policy for us so that nobody would mess up with us. No one will rush to attack us or think to invade us; it will enable us to also be more influential and stronger in the Middle East.

“We have no motive to attack Israel – you haven’t taken our lands nor killed anyone of us. The nuclear reactors will guarantee our survival just as you have built a nuclear reactor. Therefore, we are ready to pay any price, including collapse of the economy and people’s lives, – most importantly, that we will have a nuclear bomb. You have to reconcile with the fact that Iran will be nuclear and that we will have a bomb, but to also understand that it will not be directed toward you.”

Who’s at the Crosshairs of the Iranians?

“The hatred we have for the Arabs is bigger than that for the Jews,” says S. with an expression of disgust on his face. “From the age of three, I was brought up to hate Arabs. I never was taught, or thought to hate Israel. Everybody knows, including the government, that Israel helped us to survive the war against Iraq. Our real enemies are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and the rest of the Gulf states. I can assure you, that without American protection, Kuwait would be long ago an Iranian province.”

S. keeps insisting that the recipient’s address on the bomb, if and when, won’t be in the Tel Aviv Metropolitan Area*. “Our bomb should be directed at the Gulf States, not at Israel. We have no interest in you. They are our enemies, not you. Don’t believe your government that uses your fear to stay in power. For if a bomb falls in Israel, both Jordan will be wiped off and Syria will suffer from direct ad indirect damage, and we don’t want this.”

The Americans Won’t Dare to Attack Iran Either

Publicly at least, the Americans are trying to stay away from the borders of Iran, to be content with implicit naval exercises and keep their mouths shut in face of the demands to interfere, however, it is clear to all the sides that if Iran threatens the allies of the United States in the Gulf, Uncle Sam may change his approach to an active military one.

“Why is that clear?” – S. interrupts me. “To us, it’s actually clear that the Americans won’t attack us because they know what the result of that will be. They are embroiled in wars in the Middle East, we already have a few grams of uranium enriched enough at the level of bomb, there are too many sites for nuclear production, – and this requires a prolonged assault. We can easily hang on for three months of a hard war that would exhaust the Americans, but they can’t afford such an adventure. They don’t have enough money because their economy is weaker than ever, all the more so the Israelis who think that it is possible to stop Iran in one bombing run. You will at most delay us, but get directly into our crosshairs. Be ready for a response.”

Where Have You Been When Pakistan Armed Itself?

“If Iran doesn’t see in Israel an enemy state, does this mean that there will be a positive relationship between the countries?” – we asked S. “No, absolutely not. We have no desire to get closer to you. We really have no interest in you. You are small, weak, and you have nothing to offer us. Meanwhile, you only give the world reasons to hate you with he talk about an attack. Such an action will make you into our enemies, and your citizens will pay the price.”

So Iran doesn’t hate Israel or strives to eliminate it, and its enemies are overall found in the Gulf. Is Iran simply misunderstood? “It’s not that we are not understood, but rater that you exaggerate in translating our intentions. Look at Pakistan: this is the most disorderly state in the world, Muslim one and very radical, and yet they have nuclear capability and a bomb. Why aren’t you worried about them? Why don’t you threaten to strike them? There, Taliban and al-Qaeda might even take control of a nuclear country, and then what? You have to understand the Iranian character before you deal with us. We are not Arabs. An Arab, if you killed his brother, will want to kill you, and he won’t mind dying in the attempt to kill you. Iran, as a state, didn’t attack any other country for 300 years. We are more tolerant and civilized than the Arabs.”

Decided to Attack? Go for It till the End

S. looks at the watch and finds out that almost two hours passed since we started the conversation, and he begins to feel uncomfortably. Just before he goes back to persuade local investors to opt out of the sanctions and bind business with the Iranian companies, I offer him the stage to deliver a message to the Israeli public. S. vacillates. Even gets stressed out, but after taking a little sip of the coffee, it seems, the words have connected into a sentence. “You should look at the Iranian nuke like at a puzzle. Don’t arrive at fateful and tough decision on the basis of the general picture, when you have seen only small pieces of it. The consequences of extreme behavior will be so grave that no one will be able to afford them – neither you nor us. We the Persians love everybody, except for the Arabs, but you are like that, too – aren’t you? If you carry on killing our scientists, even tens of them – we’ve got thousands. Just last week, I attended a university graduation ceremony of dozens of new Iranian scientists who will be willing to do anything in the name of the country. You cannot kill them all, you cannot stop us, – merely impede a little bit, but then it’s already going to be too late for you, for we will already hate you until then, and maybe, also a politician will come, who will be crazy enough to eliminate you. Today, you are not our enemies, and I promise you, you don’t want to be our enemies.”

At this stage, it’s difficult to stop the flow of S.’s speech. “If you decide to strike us, make sure to complete the work to the end, not like you did in Lebanon or like Schwarzkopf did in 1991 in Iraq, when he stopped 100 kilometer from Baghdad and left Saddam alive, so that he’d kill hundreds of thousands later. You’re going to need to make a great effort and strike and destroy all the [nuclear] installations, because if you leave something, one of them, working after you – we will chase you. And it’s not only the facilities that you should destroy – in order to stop the nuclear project completely, you’ll need to make the Iranian people to give up on the nuclear capacity. You’re going to need to attack Iran’s power and water plants to darken the country and cause all of us to be hungry and thirsty, so that we couldn’t any longer buy milk an food in the supermarket, – because only then, we’ll become like Syria and make the regime to stop the nuclear program. We don’t want to lose the country, for indeed, for this end we’ve established the nuclear reactors – so that they will protect us from the world.”

S. stood up, and a moment before he left, he sent towards us a last remark. “I always thought that the Israelis are smarter, but you are paranoid. Your history is killing you and your leaders are lying to you and feeding the public with illusions. That is foolishness that will cost you dearly.”

The Day After Bombing - IranEdge

 

[FaujHistorian]

....... he promises that his country will reach nuclear capability......

May be I know, or perhaps I do not understand.


What is this "capability"?

1. Nuclear enrichment? If so Iran has the centrifuges thanks to Pakistani Namak Haram Qadeer Khan. And Iran can enrich to certain percentage. So what is the max percentage of enrichment? if that's the goal.


2. Nuclear pourer plant?

3. Medical use?

4. Bomb?

What else?