The Consequences of a Pakistani Sea-Based Nuclear Second Strike Capability

[Gufi]

That is exatly i am saying, the balance is maintained. Pakistan in case of war will definitely be assisted by china, be it logistics, recon, diplomatic support, or military. hence according to your definition. India needs to create balance with pak and chine on one side.

No I am saying Pakistan will make its own balance separately. When war does come China will help us but to be dependant on them is not something we will do. We would like our own second strike capability as well as Chinese help. More missiles, more deterrence .

Russia may not keep anyone at bay but you are forgetting USA. USA will never allow china to be a free dog in the war scenario of idnia-pakistan.

USA is not close enough in any eventuality of nuclear Armageddon and would not interfere if things got so serious. It would not risk world war 3 over India.

 

[SrNair]

First of all there is a misconception amongst most Indians as to the superiority of Indian scientists compared to Pakistan. But okay let us play by your rules, if China has given us all our land based weapons and helped us with cruise missiles what would stop it from giving us sea based weapons.
If the world could not prove and sanction China for giving us Shaheen 3 as you think they did, then what will make them react to sea based nuclear deterrents. The world knows our navy is not strong enough to challenge then in foreign waters and they know any weapon would be pointed at India so if they are letting us grow our nuclear stock pile and letting us get weapons from China(again this is what Indians say I do not agree but by your own logic) then they will have no problem with us getting sea based missiles either. Our submarines would not be able to reach any way near a position to threaten the west and they do not really care about the rest. If they did then why would they let China give us missiles and not sanction either country.

There is no misconception .And this is not our words .One of your own reputed member in here who knows Pak missile pgm than anyone of us agreed in a discussiin about Chinese support.He also had clear reason.That is Pakistan dont have resources for that .
We dont need western support to stop a deal like that.You got that entire system when our missile development was in infant stage while China had Russian support and espinoage .I already told you China already gave a lot to Pakistan.And that is the main reason for our decision t to supply ships to Vietnam.A few decades ago we wouldnt have weapons to challenge China on same coin.
But now if they try for that we will supply lethal systems to Vietnam.And remember we are not a MTCR signatory .
Additiinally we have two advantages now .One is heightened relation with West and other is that we have a decisive policy makers in Delhi who wont hesitate for thing like that.
World is very much changed after Shaheen deal.s

 

[Gufi]

here is no misconception .And this is not our words .One of your own reputed member in here who knows Pak missile pgm than anyone of us agreed in a discussiin about Chinese support.He also had clear reason.That is Pakistan dont have resources for that .
We dont need western support to stop a deal like that.You got that entire system when our missile development was in infant stage while China had Russian support and espinoage .I already told you China already gave a lot to Pakistan.And that is the main reason for our decision t to supply ships to Vietnam.A few decades ago we wouldnt have weapons to challenge China on same coin.
But now if they try for that we will supply lethal systems to Vietnam.And remember we are not a MTCR signatory .
Additiinally we have two advantages now .One is heightened relation with West and other is that we have a decisive policy makers in Delhi who wont hesitate for thing like that.
World is very much changed after Shaheen deal.s

Yes the world has changed yet Pakistan conducted the test. Which means the world has not really changed has it?? The resources are always an issue, yet we are progressing on a JF17, increased the number of F16s and upgraded them, as well as got 3 helicopters. Yet you do not seem to think a few submarines can be managed?? The way you behave it seems like you think the world has nothing else to do but listen to India. Seems like it really worked with the current situation does it not??
The western support is support until war happens, the only real ally you had has been neutralized due to China, and Bangladesh has offered its ports to China as well. As much as you speak of the Vietnam threat, the influence of China is growing through soft power and soon they will have regained the status of old. So work on your diplomacy, it will not get you far. You see things in a linear pattern which is sad.
The west can not support you in any war even if it wishes too. Any major attack will lead to nuclear war, which is why India is stopped from attacking Pakistan. Why do you think there has been no response after so much screaming over Pakistani intervention. You seem to be listening to the chest thumping of politicians and ignoring ground realities. There is no way you can dismantle 100 nuclear bombs and that figure has been stagnant for 4 years which seems improbable. With the addition of more nuclear plants, the number will only grow. If you need to understand the economy even better, try googling KSE index, you will find where it is in the world right now and what you seemed to have missed in your bright deductions.
There will be a decrease in problems as it is. if you followed the Pakistani economy carefully you would have realized that. Importing gas will decrease cost of electricity, making furnace oil a thing of the past, as well as dams adding an additional 1000Mw in 2016. So the major hurdles will slowly decrease and with increased work on the economic corridor we will be working most of our factories to full capacity boosting the economy.
What you see is a picture of now, what you do not see is 2 years from now, if you are so confident in your armed services actually working to a schedule then you should expect the other country to be working also. While you will sway over the fine prints of one deal we will be finalizing behind closed doors and you will find out when the first submarine is delivered that the deal was signed and then see how many more are too come.
Also you believe China has given everything to Pakistan and that is where you are mistaken. Read your own papers, we had people telling us your war movements in your own ministries, you think your missile plans are really that safe? It is intelligence and we seem to be doing good if your own papers are to be believed. Just now you are realizing under Modi's government how many things you missed.
Some random points to consider, maybe you understand something or maybe you do not. But know as a nation we know India poses a threat and are always vary and watchful, and your nation has taken Pakistan as a failed state which is why you seem to be over confident of the might of the Indian army. Before you come preaching about purchasing power, do study how the Rafale deal is going and know that we bought engines from your closest ally while you ran to America. We should thank your planners who let us in that market again. Granted India has stronger relations, but it does not hold the clout it once did.

 

[SrNair]

@Gufi .I expected a more mature post from.
Within this post you have gone from one end of the offtopic to other end of the offtopic.Noone will say that Pakistan economy wont grown in future.Indeed it will grow like any other developing country .We dont have any problem in that.
War ???It is a totally outdated concept .Reasons are several .In 1971and in recent 1999 we didnt see the so called China nowhere nearer to India.
Did you actually they will destroy their nation for Pakistan ?
With Pakistan and India .Ok west wont interfere.But if China try for that Japan ,US all of them are in SCS for an excuse .You already knows there is a reason for the US proximity towards India and that is China.
At any case war wont happen between India and China .Because it is not good for both them.Both of them have thriving economy unlike Pakistan .And they wont destroy it.But China will suppply arms and we wont have any problem in that.
AnotherBS.Did you actually think BD will take that risk?
Look at the SL .Thre is not example is needed.
Vietnam.is lookin g for us and US.That is why they gave us additional oil wells for exploration.They need us in SCS.
Of Course China may gave you that.Perhaps.

Then we also will give something to Vietnam.In fact China already understands that when we signed a deal with them.
A load of K 15 or Nirbhay at Chinese shores would be a nightmare for China.

Yes the world has changed yet Pakistan conducted the test. Which means the world has not really changed has it?? The resources are always an issue, yet we are progressing on a JF17, increased the number of F16s and upgraded them, as well as got 3 helicopters. Yet you do not seem to think a few submarines can be managed?? The way you behave it seems like you think the world has nothing else to do but listen to India. Seems like it really worked with the current situation does it not??
The western support is support until war happens, the only real ally you had has been neutralized due to China, and Bangladesh has offered its ports to China as well. As much as you speak of the Vietnam threat, the influence of China is growing through soft power and soon they will have regained the status of old. So work on your diplomacy, it will not get you far. You see things in a linear pattern which is sad.
The west can not support you in any war even if it wishes too. Any major attack will lead to nuclear war, which is why India is stopped from attacking Pakistan. Why do you think there has been no response after so much screaming over Pakistani intervention. You seem to be listening to the chest thumping of politicians and ignoring ground realities. There is no way you can dismantle 100 nuclear bombs and that figure has been stagnant for 4 years which seems improbable. With the addition of more nuclear plants, the number will only grow. If you need to understand the economy even better, try googling KSE index, you will find where it is in the world right now and what you seemed to have missed in your bright deductions.
There will be a decrease in problems as it is. if you followed the Pakistani economy carefully you would have realized that. Importing gas will decrease cost of electricity, making furnace oil a thing of the past, as well as dams adding an additional 1000Mw in 2016. So the major hurdles will slowly decrease and with increased work on the economic corridor we will be working most of our factories to full capacity boosting the economy.
What you see is a picture of now, what you do not see is 2 years from now, if you are so confident in your armed services actually working to a schedule then you should expect the other country to be working also. While you will sway over the fine prints of one deal we will be finalizing behind closed doors and you will find out when the first submarine is delivered that the deal was signed and then see how many more are too come.
Also you believe China has given everything to Pakistan and that is where you are mistaken. Read your own papers, we had people telling us your war movements in your own ministries, you think your missile plans are really that safe? It is intelligence and we seem to be doing good if your own papers are to be believed. Just now you are realizing under Modi's government how many things you missed.
Some random points to consider, maybe you understand something or maybe you do not. But know as a nation we know India poses a threat and are always vary and watchful, and your nation has taken Pakistan as a failed state which is why you seem to be over confident of the might of the Indian army. Before you come preaching about purchasing power, do study how the Rafale deal is going and know that we bought engines from your closest ally while you ran to America. We should thank your planners who let us in that market again. Granted India has stronger relations, but it does not hold the clout it once did.

 

[Gufi]

War ???It is a totally outdated concept .Reasons are several .In 1971and in recent 1999 we didnt see the so called China nowhere nearer to India.

So we need a sea based second strike deterrence, you agree with me. Nothing could be simpler to reach a conclusion.

A load of K 15 or Nirbhay at Chinese shores would be a nightmare for China.

you over estimate the effect of cruise missiles with conventional war heads.

Did you actually they will destroy their nation for Pakistan ?

The whole debate was can Pakistan depend on China to provide a second strike deterrence or does it need it's own. We can disagree on the way things are shaping but both of us can agree that it does need a deterrent. Well it does not really need one but it will be one more thing that will prevent any real war so it is important. You should have read my position clearly earlier, saved me from telling you how the world works....

oh and just so you know USSR was there in 1971 and 99 it was Russia which kept China at bay, things now have changed and I do not think Russia will do that any more. But like I said since you agree that Pakistan should get nuclear missiles from subs as a deterrent both of us can agree on things.

AnotherBS.Did you actually think BD will take that risk?

Any major war with India will be a nuclear war, and it will cause the end of Pakistan and India will be facing great losses also. In this situation you can expect India to have no allies, and if nuclear war does break out America will stay away, it will not fight China and risk a direct nuclear conflict.

 

[Genesis]

Look at the SL .Thre is not example is needed.

What happened in Sri Lanka? Modi makes one trip, signs some document and all of a sudden it's over? If only things were that easy.

But you can believe what you want to believe, maybe it's true, who knows.

Vietnam.is lookin g for us and US.That is why they gave us additional oil wells for exploration.They need us in SCS.

Then we also will give something to Vietnam.In fact China already understands that when we signed a deal with them.

India is no where on the weapons export list, you want to take a guess on why that is.

You guys keep talking how we like to boast, but if you had our success, you be over the moon, you are already jumping up and down for essentially nothing.

A load of K 15 or Nirbhay at Chinese shores would be a nightmare for China.

K-15 is sea based, and also if Vietnam needs sub launched missiles, Russia is there. K-15 is only 700 km, K-4 is a somewhat ok deterrent, and you can only fit 4 onto your sub.

As to nirbhay, you can't export missiles that go that far, and also if Vietnam were to go for someone's missiles it be Russian. Also not in service yet.

Calm down dude, you just go into the arms export game, there's a reason US and Russia can export so much and everyone else can't, you will soon find out.

 

[SrNair]

So we need a sea based second strike deterrence, you agree with me. Nothing could be simpler to reach a conclusion.

you over estimate the effect of cruise missiles with conventional war heads.

The whole debate was can Pakistan depend on China to provide a second strike deterrence or does it need it's own. We can disagree on the way things are shaping but both of us can agree that it does need a deterrent. Well it does not really need one but it will be one more thing that will prevent any real war so it is important. You should have read my position clearly earlier, saved me from telling you how the world works....

oh and just so you know USSR was there in 1971 and 99 it was Russia which kept China at bay, things now have changed and I do not think Russia will do that any more. But like I said since you agree that Pakistan should get nuclear missiles from subs as a deterrent both of us can agree on things.


Any major war with India will be a nuclear war, and it will cause the end of Pakistan and India will be facing great losses also. In this situation you can expect India to have no allies, and if nuclear war does break out America will stay away, it will not fight China and risk a direct nuclear conflict.

Of Course .If Pakistan get someting like that from China which is much provocative .India may consider about a same generosity to Vietnam.Like I said the leasing of a nuke sub with full loaded weapons.And a possible export of other missile systems.
We are sure about that because now we have capability.
Like I said War is an outdated concept ,especially between major power.A war between India and China will cripple both of them and rest of the world.

Russia in Kargil war for us.What a nice Comedy .Do you have any proof for that ?Yes USSR support us .in 1971
But in 1999 Russia was not even a shadow of USSR and was totally default.How can they dictate China at that time??Very funny .

Again you came with a contradictory reply for a question concernin BD.
Take it from here .We dont need anyones support .In fact in future ,if things goes like this Russia may need our help not reverse.
Now we have capability and decisivness.

 

[kaku1]

That is what I said, we have to make our own balance. But 71 and now are very different, I do not think Russia would keep anyone at bay and that will free China more. Depends on how Indian relations are with China in the future. Which means is it is not as dependant as we would like thus the second strike capability from sea is needed

Ever you thought about world,, from Chinese perspective? Or jus you closed down under Pak?

By the way, what's the point you are trying to make, you've added Pakistan, China, India, the US, Vietnam, the Indian Ocean , but still no concrete point or defense of your initial argument on why China won't help Pakistan with sea based deterrent. At the end, you end your argument with "I don't think so"..... and with 0 facts

See the bold above and my answers below.
1) So China won't work with Pakistan in giving a nuclear armed country, its probably the most strategic ally, sea based deterrent. But India is giving Vietnam just that

2) You think China or anyone cares for a "foreign policy disaster" aka, the war of words, statements and media shows, vs. the actual stuff that interacts indirectly or directly with their national interests? Did the same foreign policy disaster stop India from working with Afghanistan and training the same Taliban against Pakistan, it initially accused Pakistan of potentially using as "proxies"?

3) When you end an argument as "I don't think so"....you've ruined your ability to show facts. Personal thoughts don't present factual matters. Your posts have now become "gossip" for all intensive purposes.

I think Kate Upton should dump her boyfriend and marry me....but that's what "I think" aka, in my head. Not real, never going to happen

 

[SrNair]

What happened in Sri Lanka? Modi makes one trip, signs some document and all of a sudden it's over? If only things were that easy.

But you can believe what you want to believe, maybe it's true, who knows.



India is no where on the weapons export list, you want to take a guess on why that is.

You guys keep talking how we like to boast, but if you had our success, you be over the moon, you are already jumping up and down for essentially nothing.




K-15 is sea based, and also if Vietnam needs sub launched missiles, Russia is there. K-15 is only 700 km, K-4 is a somewhat ok deterrent, and you can only fit 4 onto your sub.

As to nirbhay, you can't export missiles that go that far, and also if Vietnam were to go for someone's missiles it be Russian. Also not in service yet.

Calm down dude, you just go into the arms export game, there's a reason US and Russia can export so much and everyone else can't, you will soon find out.

If you have Ostrich attitude then that is not our problem.SL totally shut downed the practice of Chinese nuke sub docking in SL.
And in further we pressurized and cancelled one project of worth 1.5 billion$ .Do you have enough ?If dont more will come in future.


Who told you that we need an export status for giving strategic items like K 4 or K 15.?We have nuke tech both peaceful and destructive and all options is in there if you pushed us to far .Silent ,secret deal is not only your monopoly we can also do that .
You were the one with short sighted mentality that give nuke tech and missiles to Pakistan.Not us .For bogged down us in SA.But you are wrong .
Nirbhay will complete within 2 years and will be operational.
We are Indians dude.Not Russians .And we have a lot of connection with West unlike Russia.

We already passed the moon and even completed a Mars .So we dont need to jump up and down. Go it.

 

[Gufi]

Of Course .If Pakistan get someting like that from China which is much provocative .India may consider about a same generosity to Vietnam.Like I said the leasing of a nuke sub with full loaded weapons.And a possible export of other missile systems.

First get a few subs for yourself... I wonder you got one from Russia and you think that you have it made... First manage to have a fleet of 5 before you think of leasing out... Which will take another decade or two to manage that at least.... You have managed to nearly complete one submarine and still has not entered active service... considering it does enter service on time, which is a big if, you will have two submarines.... And you will give one to Vietnam... You are a great military leader...

.Like I said the leasing of a nuke sub with full loaded weapons.And a possible export of other missile systems.

yes give them long range missiles... that would invite sanctions which you really think would be what you need... Plus India needs to move a long way before it starts giving weapons to others... but again great vision

But in 1999 Russia was not even a shadow of USSR and was totally default.How can they dictate China at that time??Very funny .

the China then and the China now are different what would you say.. You still do not have a decent enough army to manage to defeat Pakistan without losing most of your major cities... When you manage to do that move on to thinking about China...

Take it from here .We dont need anyones support .In fact in future ,if things goes like this Russia may need our help not reverse.
Now we have capability and decisivness.

LOOOL ok this needs an audience.... @syedali73 @TankMan @Chinese-Dragon
please read the observation... I think he is trolling now... Or is it seriously what he thinks... Can not really decide...

Who told you that we need an export status for giving strategic items like K 4 or K 15.?We have nuke tech both peaceful and destructive and all options is in there if you pushed us to far .Silent ,secret deal is not only your monopoly we can also do that .

yes, pushing you too far is dangerous... go rest, I think it would be beneficial... Vietnam, nuclear armed, yes your grip of foreign policy amazes me....

Nirbhay will complete within 2 years and will be operational.

yes very dependable schedules you keep. I am sure it will be

We are Indians dude.Not Russians .And we have a lot of connection with West unlike Russia.

Oh yes the western media loves to cover the bright side of India... Pick up any paper and they will tell us that

We already passed the moon and even completed a Mars .So we dont need to jump up and down. Go it.

You completed a Mars.. Yes you did complete a Mars. Please do not jump up and down... It is ok....
@Armstrong have you completed a Mars???

 

[syedali73]

LOOOL ok this needs an audience.... @syedali73 @TankMan @Chinese-Dragon
please read the observation... I think he is trolling now... Or is it seriously what he thinks... Can not really decide...

What is wrong in dreaming? Let him.

Russia needs India... and that is why threads like "Russia willing to share ToT of PAK-FA with India" and "Rafale come with full ToT" etc., are running.

 

[SrNair]

Oh now that is a real burning
Except AIP and dieasel we have nuke sub technology.
You dont have any nuke sub .Right?I am talking about a future perspective . At any case you will take at least one and half decade for a new nuke sub unless you get a ready made from China.
At that time you can imagine the difference between India and Russia.For that you dont need audience if you have common sense .

We have enough fleet with Kolkata
,Kamorta,etc.
Within one decade we will have at least 6-10 subs both nuke and AIP
In future West will think twice before they sanctioned us.Again I am saying about in future perspective.

We will surely follow aggressive policy if they provoked us too much.

Look at the breaking of string of pears.

TTA should atleast some maturity when you replied about our Mars mission

Or if you have some pain about our rapid rising then bear it .We are so sooorry

First get a few subs for yourself... I wonder you got one from Russia and you think that you have it made... First manage to have a fleet of 5 before you think of leasing out... Which will take another decade or two to manage that at least.... You have managed to nearly complete one submarine and still has not entered active service... considering it does enter service on time, which is a big if, you will have two submarines.... And you will give one to Vietnam... You are a great military leader...

yes give them long range missiles... that would invite sanctions which you really think would be what you need... Plus India needs to move a long way before it starts giving weapons to others... but again great vision

the China then and the China now are different what would you say.. You still do not have a decent enough army to manage to defeat Pakistan without losing most of your major cities... When you manage to do that move on to thinking about China...

LOOOL ok this needs an audience.... @syedali73 @TankMan @Chinese-Dragon
please read the observation... I think he is trolling now... Or is it seriously what he thinks... Can not really decide...

yes, pushing you too far is dangerous... go rest, I think it would be beneficial... Vietnam, nuclear armed, yes your grip of foreign policy amazes me....

yes very dependable schedules you keep. I am sure it will be

Oh yes the western media loves to cover the bright side of India... Pick up any paper and they will tell us that

You completed a Mars.. Yes you did complete a Mars. Please do not jump up and down... It is ok....
@Armstrong have you completed a Mars???

Yes we are begin to dreaming when our govt checkmated China in IoR

What is wrong in dreaming? Let him.

 

[qamar1990]

China and India are already creating balance, and if Pakistan creates, it will be unbalanced.

well let it get unbalanced.. because we will make one.

 

[SrNair]

TTA should read post again .Then should reply .I already said this is about future .Did you actually think we will be remain like this in future ?

What is wrong in dreaming? Let him.

Russia needs India... and that is why threads like "Russia willing to share ToT of PAK-FA with India" and "Rafale come with full ToT" etc., are running.

 

[syedali73]

TTA should read post again .Then should reply .I already said this is about future .Did you actually think we will be remain like this in future ?

The first Jet fighter (HF-24 Marut) India rolled out was in 1961. Even after 54 years (yes, more than half a century), India is still looking towards ToT. Now it is irrelevant what I think for numbers speak for themselves..