The Cold Start Doctrine Watch.

[Markus]

I see - and take your point - awfully optimistic trusting Pakistanis to decide whether you are vaporized or not

Time will tell as to who gets vaporized.

 

[third eye]

I see - and take your point - awfully optimistic trusting Pakistanis to decide whether you are vaporized or not

When the push comes to a shove, India it appears is willing to accept a degree of vaporisation.

Seen from the Indian POV, it is left to the Pakistanis to decide whether they themselves would accept getting vaporised - an act that shall definitely follow as a consequence of their actions - hence the need to "control non state players" besides others.

Once that threshold is crossed, it will not matter anymore to India if the ' bad boys' who have been thus far pulling in different directions rally together & unite because vaporise they too will.

 

[muse]

Time will tell as to who gets vaporized.

More chest thumping - it's silly and unworthy -- This thread is not put up to bash on you, rather it is put up to allow people to think through the issue - our destruction is mutually assured, is this really the best we can come up with ?- Is a bad option, rearlly a preferred option??

@Thrid eye says we can accept a "degree of vaporization" - girl friend, phhleeze ! make sense

 

[Markus]

More chest thumping - it's silly and unworthy -- This thread is not put up to bash on you, rather it is put up to allow people to think through the issue - our destruction is mutually assured, is this really the best we can come up with ?- Is a bad option, rearlly a preferred option??

@Thrid eye says we can accept a "degree of vaporization" - girl friend, phhleeze ! make sense

What chest thumping?

I left it on TIME to decide who goes where.

I did not say Indian army will end your race. Come on.

 

[rockstarIN]

What I see in this tread, complete underestimation of Indian military power by Pakistanis.


IA is trying to diminish whats their major disadvantage, -low speed- in every possible matter.

 

[third eye]

More chest thumping - it's silly and unworthy -- This thread is not put up to bash on you, rather it is put up to allow people to think through the issue - our destruction is mutually assured, is this really the best we can come up with ?- Is a bad option, rearlly a preferred option??

@Thrid eye says we can accept a "degree of vaporization" - girl friend, phhleeze ! make sense

Here lies the difference, mutual damage is assured, destruction is not.

Since the nuke has been Pakistan's ticket to everything , what if India decides to call the bluff ?

My views as mentioned in post Nos 23 & 25 remain.

 

[MilSpec]

@muse @Aeronaut Son Of CSD is pretty witty title.

Most CSD threads in the forum begin with Pakistani side claiming, either Indian IBG's will be decimated by trenched in anti armour forces or NASR, SRBM will stop the indian forces in it's tracks... the next round is Indian side invoking mega nuclear strikes and the then the counter strike cutting India into nuclear wasteland, in all there is a tremendous amount of war mongering and very little discussion.

CSD: Cold start doctrine to me seems like an intentional vague concept with loosely generalized objectives and completely vague operational procedure. In any CSD discussion the main content that is missing is the air interdiction that would precede any ground movement. Then one of the senior members on this thread claimes 8 IBG's, what if the lAC is broken at 24 different locations, there are countless permutation and combinations of where and what kind of IBG's will operate.

IBG: Anothter contentious issue is the size and structure of a IA IBG, the size, the nature, composotion based on the terrain, the objective of the IBG, the logistics to support the IBG, the resupply in enemy territory, the ability for the IBG to hold captured territory. All of the information is missing.

CSD as a HOAX: Indian economy and military strength has growing disparity with pakistan. Wouldn't it be beneficial for Indian military to perpetuate a situation where Pakistani military which historically has been an offensive force into a defensive position, and in the mean while Indian keeps on growing the disparity without any real contact and just maintain and hoax of an invasion.

Hit and Duck: What if the only action if no other options are left is not CSD but just Hit and Duck. Heavy Air interdiction initiated to signal start of CSD, but instead of ground invasion, what if Indian forces just clamp down on defensive positions and never enter pak territory, and enforce naval blockade. Wait for pakistanis to escalate the next move and counter attack in ground positions.


Ground reality for India: India is in no position to fight and win against Pakistan period. The glaring question is what would be the objective of fighting against pakistan, and what would essentially constitute "winning". The objective in my opinion would be to nullify asymmetrical threat from pakistan. Do we need to invade pakistan to achieve that particular objective? Is CSD the most potent method to coerce pakistan, especially when they are already prepared for it (or at least their military is).
Why should India try to coerce pakistan militarily where it's strength lies, why not coerce pakistan economically where it's weakness lies. If India keeps adding to it's military conventional strengths, and increasing disparity , eventually pakistan will have to come to the table for discussions and pursue peaceful reolutions of conflicts, when it sees itself in a weaker position that it sees itself today.

So can Cold start doctrine be a threat factory that is vague enough where pakistani establishment and think tanks visualize their worst nightmares and keep investing money towards a hypothetical threat. Is it possible that CSD is already a success where Pakistani military is churning out actual weapon systems and ground units to counter a possible piece of paper. In that case CSD or at-least the threat concept is working exactly how it was designed.

 

[Bang Galore]

Cold start and Son of cold start represent a mind set in India --- it is in India that this policy needs to to be openly discussed and debated -- I have faith that the good sense and self respect of educated and concerned Indians will see to it that this policy is arrested (and I in the meantime would welcome an ideological return to "Pakistani" value system, greater training, lethality and firepower in the Pakistan )

Err... armies have to have some doctrine for fighting wars, how was the Sundarji doctrine better for you chaps ? A doctrine is necessary just like yours is for you. Surely you are not suggesting that India do nothing that will give Pakistani Army Generals something to chew on while they decide to offer some support to "non-state" actors. Cold start or any other Indian doctrine is based on the necessity for some sort of retaliation after a particularly horrendous terrorist attack on India which India believes is linked to Pakistan. I believe that India cannot allow Pakistan to decide always what the escalation levels are set at. If Pakistan does not want to risk some "crazy" Indian plan which might result in some "crazy" Pakistani plan, then maybe they should decide to be a bit more circumspect about rendering support to "non-state" actors that might cause all these issues to crop up in the first place?


Btw, what would you prefer instead of CS? A couple of billion dollars funded through RAW to turn Pakistan into even more of internal war zone than it is already? If CS is thought to be completely nonviable, then that would be the next option, would it not? As I have said before, I see no happy ending for Pakistan, no matter how this plays out. Maybe your suggestion of a pause should be delivered at home first?

 

[Bang Galore]

To be perfectly honest with you, there is a genuine desire among the leadership of PA to improve relations with India. The General Staff has encouraged the Government to improve relations with India and expand trade ties. Gen Kayani is on record encouraging the ex PPP led Government to improve ties with India and try to solve outstanding issues in an amicable manner.

This is why PA has used her influence to put a leash on Anti Indian Groups that are operating on Pakistani soil. But if the Indians continue with their support of weapons and money to Anti Pakistan Groups sheltered in Afghanistan, PA might decide to draw a line and restart its support for Anti Indian activities. Indian influence and support is naturally going to come to a halt as the Americans withdraw and start to implement stabilizing mechanisms.

So far the Indians have been lucky to piggy back on American efforts, but as the Americans start winding up, both Indian and American interests are beginning to diverge because Indian activities will sooner or later invite a response from Pakistan which will be a destabilizing factor for Afghanistan. To sum it all up, the ball is in India's court whether she wants to continue supporting terrorist activities against Pakistan or improve relations with Pakistan.

To be perfectly honest with you, no one in India will buy this stuff. Nobody in India buys that 26/11 had no state participation, no one buys that the PA wants peace on terms that India can live with(everyone wants peace, only the terms of achieving such peace is not the same). Threatening India with more violence won't work, India today has the money & the wherewithal to pay back in spades were it choose to go down that path. To suggest that Pakistan is the aggrieved party here will only get you an invitation to some "laughter challenge" type of shows , Indians simply will not be very sympathetic to such assertions. To further suggest that India must simply do what you want it to do in Afghanistan or face consequences is not about to get many takers in India. India can & will be able to pour substantial financial & other resources into Afghanistan to groups that are not inimical to it. To assume that Americans, Russians, Iranians will do what you want is the height of delusional thinking, to think that India in 2013/2014 will just roll over & play dead is even more absurd. To believe that the PA uses armed groups as some sort of leverage against India but that India can't employ a similar strategy in Afghanistan would be very naive. The American withdrawal is a double edged sword as you will soon find out. What leverage will you have have left with the Americans when the logistic one is lost? Could the Americans not decide to pay you back for your "help" with some of their own?

 

[muse]

If you follow the link to the Naval post Graduate school paper link, you will find that the author thinks that this CSD will harm Indian interests -

My take is similar but for slightly different reasons -- I think India need excellent relations with Pakistan and a certain international player is going to be pushing that very hard - very hard - otherwise, "creative destruction" may become in vogue again, as will be seen by this "creative destruction", it is not immune to unintended consequences.

Look here are what I think are important points --
CSD is inherently aggressive and is reckless
Exactly what Indian interests are furthered by it?

 

[Bang Galore]

My take is similar but for slightly different reasons -- I think India need excellent relations with Pakistan and a certain international player is going to be pushing that very hard - very hard - otherwise, "creative destruction" may become in vogue again, as will be seen by this "creative destruction", it is not immune to unintended consequences.

No one will disagree that India would benefit from good relations with Pakistan but hope cannot be a policy. There is nothing now that suggests that Pakistan & India can have that "excellent" relations, till that time,it is only prudent to have other instruments at your disposal.

Look here are what I think are important points --
CSD is inherently aggressive and is reckless
Exactly what Indian interests are furthered by it?

My take is slightly different. Pakistani support for players who will launch a deadly attack on Indian soil is inherently aggressive and reckless, I don't think that you are suggesting that the IA will some day, without any reason, launch into actions that might have the potential of a larger conflagration. To allow an enemy to decide what level of escalation it wants & to be held back by the enemy's apparent belief that it alone is allowed to decide that level, would be foolish & incompetent for any military planner. If Pakistan does not wish escalation, maybe it should remove the point of provocation. The very fact that CS is being discussed & that PA & others in Pakistan are concerned about its impact is a job well done by IA planners. Who knows how many more attacks might have been launched into Indian cities if there was no fear whatsoever of retribution? Even today, on this forum & elsewhere, Pakistanis gloat about how the nuclear deterrent allowed them to stare down India after 26/11, the same argument used for the attack on the Indian parliament in 2011. Not a complete, unqualified condemnation of the actual terrorist attack but a savouring of delight that regardless of the attach, India was not able to respond. You decide for yourself, who are the aggressive & reckless ones here.

 

[MilSpec]

Look here are what I think are important points --
CSD is inherently aggressive and is reckless
Exactly what Indian interests are furthered by it?

Is there enough information available to observe the nature of CSD?

The only interest I think CSD serves well is to push back pakistan into a defensive posture expecting a ground invasion

 

[muse]

My take is slightly different. Pakistani support for players who will launch a deadly attack on Indian soil is inherently aggressive and reckless, I don't think that you are suggesting that the IA will some day, without any reason, launch into actions that might have the potential of a larger conflagration. To allow an enemy to decide what level of escalation it wants & to be held back by the enemy's apparent belief that it alone is allowed to decide that level, would be foolish & incompetent for any military planner. If Pakistan does not wish escalation, maybe it should remove the point of provocation. The very fact that CS is being discussed & that PA & others in Pakistan are concerned about its impact is a job well done by IA planners. Who knows how many more attacks might have been launched into Indian cities if there was no fear whatsoever of retribution? Even today, on this forum & elsewhere, Pakistanis gloat about how the nuclear deterrent allowed them to stare down India after 26/11, the same argument used for the attack on the Indian parliament in 2011. Not a complete, unqualified condemnation of the actual terrorist attack but a savouring of delight that regardless of the attach, India was not able to respond. You decide for yourself, who are the aggressive & reckless ones here.

Without a doubt, support for proxies was and is a huge mistake - no two ways about it -- that still leaves the question of capability that India is building, doesn't it?

It may be a perception that Pakistanis gloat about nuclear deterrent, on the other hand it is a fact that such a deterrent is exactly what Pakistan have achieved
Here I would put it to you that we have what we have called a mind set problem - the fact that the deterrent is in place is a source of angst among many Indians? Why should this be? After all, why is the existence of a deterrent such a problem? Indians argue that the deterrent enabled the use of proxies, Pakistanis in turn argue that the unwillingness to discuss Kashmir meaningfully led to the proxies. Lets recall that there is a problem between us and only a resolution can allow us to move further to those excellent relations - without the resolution (regardless of how one thinks of the problem, it's a problem, right?) neither is secure and neither can move in the direction of creating international economic linkages in the region, and beyond -- one small example, imagine that Pakistan army leadership recognizes that the islamists are a net loss and must be jettisoned and are in fact jettisoned and imagine a offshore block with much promise is available and a bid of is a Pakistan-Indian is successful, can we even begin to think like this, without a resolution? Can India really make progress in A'stan and beyond without Pakistan? Honestly - you can talk Chahbahar till you are blue in the face but you are really going to tell me that the Iranian will facilitate your goods over his??????

Is there enough information available to observe the nature of CSD?

The only interest I think CSD serves well is to push back pakistan into a defensive posture expecting a ground invasion

Are they in a defensive posture? They have been quite clear what their response is going to be and it's credible enough so that unkil takes it seriously

 

[MilSpec]

Are they in a defensive posture? They have been quite clear what their response is going to be and it's credible enough so that unkil takes it seriously

They are, PA is already building battlefield doctrine to combat the alleged IBG's aren't they? As I said in my post 142, what if India Hits and Ducks, instead of actually taking any pakistani territory. Afterall the objective is damage pakistani warfighting capability, not hold pakistani terrritory.

 

[muse]

They are, PA is already building battlefield doctrine to combat the alleged IBG's aren't they? As I said in my post 142, what if India Hits and Ducks, instead of actually taking any pakistani territory. Afterall the objective is damage pakistani warfighting capability, not hold pakistani terrritory.

This a unique reading of defensive - All counter measures must then be defensive, and therefore "proactive Defense"? No, you have not been persuasive on this point -- What if India does an Israel ?? But his assumes that Pakistan are a Lebanon or Palestine-- plus I think if India did such a thing, it would be a God sent - What would be the immediate effect? It would allow the rallying of all political forces, the passing of certain "no longer controversial" security measures, allow a increase in the size of security forces, in sum think of the measures approved when the Indian public sick of terror attacks opted to create a security state - Pakistan pretends to be a security state, it needs a boot up it's behind to get it going and an Indian "raid" or two" should do the trick.