The Battle for Bajaur - PA seizes control

[fatman17]

Thanks for the details. Of course, I did not mean to suggest that Pak and its army is similar to the tinpot SViet govt and their army. There is no comparison there. I agree about the far smaller capability and support of Taliban, but some spectacular strikes carried out by them (or by their AQ brethren/other sympathizing factions) suggest they have the ability to strike high-value targets. Particularly, assasinations of top politicians (BB) and even top military officers, serving and former. E.g. the thread on ex-SSG chief Gen Alvi assasination alleging internal involvment is disturbing. But maybe I'm digressing here, so will stop....

shock tactics to prove their presence or effectiveness or influence on the populus. this is their main weapon now, but notice the drop in suicide bombings recently - and please dont stop...we (at least I) appreciate your feedback...a welcome change from a american-indian with a contrarian view (maybe) (i dont want to go overboard...hee,hee)

 

[RedBaron]

shock tactics to prove their presence or effectiveness or influence on the populus. this is their main weapon now, but notice the drop in suicide bombings recently - and please dont stop...we (at least I) appreciate your feedback...a welcome change from a american-indian with a contrarian view (maybe) (i dont want to go overboard...hee,hee)

Many thanks Fatman17. Contrarian or not, I try to stick to facts - always works well, especially in a community environment.

On one of the previous posts, Muse included an extract from a Rubin/Rashid article from Foreign Affairs magazine (link:Foreign Affairs - From Great Game to Grand Bargain - Barnett R. Rubin and Ahmed Rashid)


In the article, I noticed a section devoted to reducing Indo/Pak friction over Afghanistan:

"India would also need to become more transparent about its activities in Afghanistan, especially regarding the role of its intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing. Perhaps the ISI and the RAW could be persuaded to enter a dialogue to explore whether the covert war they have waged against each other for the past 60 years could spare the territory of Afghanistan. The contact group could help establish a permanent Indian-Pakistani body at the intelligence and military levels, where complaints could be lodged and discussed."

Even discounting the current post-Mumbai flareup, I found all the 3 points above pretty far-fetched:
- Which country would be transparent about its intelligence operations? Its akin to asking the US to be transparent about CIA stations in Georgia. No country would reveal what their intel guys are upto.
- An ISI/RAW dialogue, on Afghanistan or on weather, is highly unlikely as they are the main antagonists - its like asking for KGB/CIA dialogue at the height of the Cold War. I'm tempted to put the suggestion in the ISI Fan Club thread just to wind them up and watch their war-dance.
- Military to military relationship, when Pak Army is indoctrinated that India is the ulimate enemy, is also far-fetched. Definitely wont go well with the fighting ranks...

But at a government level, there may be scope for assuaging some anxieties. Does anyone know whether Pak Govt has formally articulated the issues they have with regard to India's consulates in Afghanistan?

I apologize in advance if this is not the right thread for the question in which case pls feel free to suggest the approp thread. Thanks

 

[Anwar2]

ISLAMABAD, Dec 22: US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen arrived here on Monday and it is believed he is on a mission to urge Pakistan to arrest elements accused by India of being involved in last month’s Mumbai attacks for cooling down the mounting tension between the two countries.- DAWN

WASHINGTON, Dec 22: The Pentagon said on Monday that America’s top military official was in Islamabad for emphasizing the need to catch those responsible for the Mumbai terrorist attacks while the State Department said the United States wanted the culprits brought to justice.
According to diplomatic sources, Pakistan’s National Security Adviser Mahmud Ali Durrani, who was in Washington last week, was told in so many words that if Islamabad wanted Washington to prevent an Indian military strike, it would have to catch those responsible for the Mumbai carnage and ensure that they were brought to justice.

KAISEY KAISEY LOG … HUM KO DARANEY AA JATEY HEIN!!

The so called “War on Terror” is no more than a boring constant rant … Do More .. Do More … Do More …. you have’nt killed enough people in FATA .. now add Muridke to the List … get rid of ISI …. Get rid of Nukes, let us “secure” them for you …. Now accept India as “My Baap” … and by the way please submit Verifiable Invoices for Logistics Support!

 

[Pk_Thunder]

Pakistan pledges fight to the death​

By Jane Corbin
BBC Panorama reporter

Maj Gen Tarik Khan

Maj Gen Khan's troops have been involved in fierce battles

"No permission is required - just open fire on anything that moves," came the order from Maj Gen Tarik Khan, commander of Pakistan's Frontier Corps.

We were sheltering in a traditional mud-walled compound in in the tribal area of Bajaur on the border with Afghanistan.

His men had seized it from militants the day before, after fierce hand-to-hand fighting.

Bursts of fire still rang out and shell cases smoked underfoot as I explored the network of tunnels connecting these compounds, some stretching for several kilometres underground.

The Taleban and al-Qaeda had dug in here over the years, threatening the local tribes and becoming the effective power in the land.

The Pakistani government in the past has been accused of not being committed to the US-led "war on terror" because offensives turned into truces before the job was finished.

But now the new civilian government led by President Asif Ali Zardari - whose wife, Benazir Bhutto, was killed by extremists a year ago - has declared that this time it is a fight to the death.

"If they do not lay down their arms, we will kill them," declared Gen Khan. "There is no other way to bring this to a close."

Sanctuary

Pakistan's commitment to the fight against terrorism affects many of us - the majority of serious terror plots in the UK lead back in some way to Pakistan, which has also become a launch pad for the growing insurgency in neighbouring Afghanistan.

mapView attachment 76a0a837c08600c8b69a8faa20895f30.jpg

"It's a life and death struggle for Pakistan as well as Afghanistan," Brig Gen Mark Milley told me as we flew in a US army helicopter along the Afghan side of the border just a few miles away.

The scenery below was spectacular, rugged and wild, and clearly no barrier to the insurgents.

"The terrain and the culture lends itself to multiple groups, amongst them al-Qaeda, who have established a sanctuary here," explained Gen Milley.

He has lost 16 men to well-trained and motivated insurgents in the past few months alone.

Pakistan is under intense international pressure to destroy the militants who established a safe haven and training camps after fleeing Afghanistan in the wake of the 9/11 attacks in the US.

That pressure has increased following the attacks in Mumbai, which India blames on a Pakistan-based Kashmiri group.

Both generals explained to me that the strategy now is to trap the militants between the hammer of the Pakistani army's offensive in the tribal areas and the anvil of US forces ranged on the other side of the border.

Suicide bombers

This winter could be decisive in preventing the insurgents retreating back into the tribal areas - but only if the Pakistani army and government hold firm.

But a local Taleban leader who operates from the Pakistan side of the border was defiant.

"Pakistani and Afghan soldiers will die," he said. "We Muslims are not disabled and this war is not going to end."

 

[S-2]

Fatman 17 already posted the article four pages back here.

Always good to actually read the thread to which you're intending to post.

 

[Pk_Thunder]

Four militants killed in Bajaur​

Updated at: 1822 PST, Thursday, December 25, 2008

Four militants killed in Bajaur KHAR: Security forces have killed 4 militants in Tehsil Mamond of Bajaur Agency.

Security forces are continuing to carry out raids against militants in different areas of Tehsil Mamond.

In the fresh offensive against militants, the military forces killed four militants besides destroying a number of their hideouts.

Local residents of the area have started shifting to safer places following the above raids.

 

[fatman17]

But at a government level, there may be scope for assuaging some anxieties. Does anyone know whether Pak Govt has formally articulated the issues they have with regard to India's consulates in Afghanistan?

Red Baron - our diplomatic efforts have been very poor. the other point is that the world that matters (US,UK,EU) have a difficult time believing us (even if its true). its all our own making!

 

[Anwar2]

Shoaib_Sham: Yours a balanced and logical assessment of the situation.

Few people in FATA subscribe to the Taleban interpretation of Islam or their style of governance. The reality however is that they have increased their ideological footprint , and have garnered the support of local population to a great extent. Without the tacit support of the population they could not have lasted more than a few weeks.

It is easy to dismiss their rise through simplistic notions of Indian money or CIA money. Maulana FM, Mangal Bagh would have not gained strength without a series of blunders by our political and military leadership:
1. Launching brigade strength full-scale armor / aircraft supported operations on your own soil does not make lots of friends. Icons are by far more powerful than well-intentioned reality. The Army is seen as an invader.
2. Most of the victims are in fact innocent civilians, women and children.
3. There is one specific ethnic group on the receiving end. FATA Pushtoons. That goes against the grain of Pakistan’s National fabric.
4. It is impossible to sell American War against Terror to an average Pakistani as his / her own war; much less to the people of FATA.
5. When you ‘score” against the FATA Pushtoons you are in fact opening a Current Account. The relations / friends of the innocent civilians as well as the “bad guys” have to take the revenge. In exactly the same way some Army units are known to have gone on revenge killing sprees once they lost officers.
6. There is a major disconnect between military leaders like MG Tarik Khan (FC Commandant) and the troops. Our senior officers want acknowledgement and “mention in dispatches” by the US / NATO, portray their ‘scores” as proof of our commitment to WoT!. An average NCO or soldier finds it pretty hard to swallow, which is reflected on the field.

US / NATO are far less generous with Pakistan than for instance the US Army was with ARVN (South Vietnamese Army). While we are committing more troops to the Afghan operation than all the US / NATO forces combined, our economy is in shambles and our public has to endure 12 hours of load shedding. That’s just too high a price!!

 

[u6657606]

As pointed out in the article about the training, communication equipment , quality of weapons and the motivation of these terrorist it is certainly an uphill task for the forces dealing with them.
The govermental forces have also to cosider of likely civilian casualties and the counter action of terrorist by diverting the war to cities.
one thing is very prominent from the very begining that our intelligence agencies failed miserably to keep an eye on these element within the country. Domestic intelligence system needs a shake up.

IF YOU ARE FORE WARNED YOU ARE FORE ARMED

 

[u6657606]

shock tactics to prove their presence or effectiveness or influence on the populus. this is their main weapon now, but notice the drop in suicide bombings recently - and please dont stop...we (at least I) appreciate your feedback...a welcome change from a american-indian with a contrarian view (maybe) (i dont want to go overboard...hee,hee)

 

[All-Green]

Salaams

Maybe i am repeating the obvious but in order to defeat any guerilla movement one first has to alienate them from the local population.
Using religious and anti US slogans (US is disliked by many due to its War on the world....ummm terror ) the Taliban have managed to gain significant sympathy; to the extent that the suicide bombings carried out by them are ignored by many people and dismissed as being carried out by some mysterious agencies and not the Taliban.
Whereas it is obvious that foreign agencies shall most definitely be fanning the flames, it takes too much emotional hatred for someone to become a suicide bomber and it is clear that it is the twisted and bribed clerics who are being used to provide such bombers and all in the name of Islam in which suicide and killing civilians in cold blood are both unforgivable sins.


I had a pathan driver (local of Bajaur) who was quite close to me and it was quite hard for me to convince him that Taliban are not really such holy angels and they are also playing a very bloody game to gain power in which locals are suffering and being butchered.

Taliban have a stranglehold over the population, they did not allow the locals to cut the corn fields to replant since it reduced cover for ambushing PAK ARMY.

So far i have seen no real political will to alienate Taliban from the local population, the peace deals should be accorded priority and then intelligence agencies and political agents should be mobilized on a very high scale to identify the different guerrilla commanders and their locations/connections/area of operations/hideouts.
Using a huge force of tanks, infantry etc will not help that much as that shall be synonymous with sending a huge target to a firing range.
We need to have a few special units (airlifted) with close air support and artillery support if needed and these need to carry out decisive strikes against the non cooperative/rebel elements confirmed by intelligence and political machinery.

There was an instance (year or two back) where 100s of Uzbeks and Tajiks attacked a recently occupied fort by a few dozen soldiers and despite many hours of desperate fighting there was no artillery support (the commander even requested that his coordinates be barraged by heavy artillery so that he goes down with the enemy troops besieging the fort) and obviously the militants were victorious.

The feedback i have so far is that most targets given by US intelligence tend out to be occupied by women and children as well and our ARMY is sent out to destroy the targets without any details resulting in huge collateral and demoralizing effect for the soldiers...no soldier worth his salt ever likes to kill civilians let alone women and children and that too the very ones he is sworn to protect.
The intelligence is very poor and US is also doing a very poor job of it and in the end blame comes to Pakistan. This is pure rubbish but the thing is that in the end it is our house and we need to put it in order without burning it down.

We need to stop relying on US intelligence and try to establish peace by political means backed by reconstruction efforts, constantly monitored by the agencies and then the army comes into play, not before that!

I guess that is too much to expect from the likes of Zardari but i am afraid even the provincial government is not doing that great...it is the political failure which worries me more than anything here....we need to alienate Taliban and such organizations from the people and this needs to be done with a clear cut plan in mind and not on a now and then basis.

P.S. food for thought...do you guys think Russia is actively playing a part here to get back at US?

 

[Anwar2]

Dear All-Green: Actually your post has the logical answers to your questions.

“”(US is disliked by many due to its War on the world....ummm terror””
“”I had a pathan driver (local of Bajaur) ……………. “”

Majority of the Pakistanis firmly believe that FATA / Bajaur operations are part of the AMERICAN War on Terror, they just don’t buy the idea that somehow this is Pakistan’s war. The people are smart enough to understand that the FATA / Bajaur operations primary aim to relieve pressure on the US/NATO troops in Afghanistan. They just don’t buy this story of establishing Pakistan government’s writ, the people firmly believe that Pakistani government does not have an independent writ even over its Capital Islamabad. The CENTCOM commanders and the US State Department in effect govern Pakistan. Poor Zardari sahib and the likes of Rehman Malik just do not cut the ice!.

Taleban are not really liked by the people of FATA for their spiritual primacy or being Holy angels. They just provide a platform for the wretched beleaguered people to get even with the forces that have wreaked havoc over their lives.

On March 25, 1971 Gen Tikka Khan launched a massive operation in East Pakistan to re-establish the lost writ of Pakistan government. A million innocent lives and 9 months later we ended up with a debilitating catastrophe. After all establishment of government writ by force is not such a bright idea.

 

[Anwar2]

Dear u6657606: With due respect you have exaggerated expectations on the effectiveness of intelligence agencies in this context.
The recent bloodshed between Bangash and Tori tribes in Kurram agency and Parachinar was painstakingly nurtured by our intelligence agencies over several months. The aim was to split the tribes on Sunni-Shia lines. In reality it backfired badly. More than 300 lives were lost, but the bogey just wont stick!
Intel services work best when there is an ideological motivation.

 

[All-Green]

Dear Anwar2
My concern is that i see no military solution here and even if we know that Zardari and his ilk are corrupt/incompetent fools it does not absolve the federal and provincial government of their responsibilities...certainly we cannot expect the peace process and political dialogue to be successful without heavy involvement of the elected representatives...
So far this does not seem to be on priority of our government which is really disappointing
All that is happening is that ARMY morale is down to zero and the locals are being left at the mercy of Taliban who will gather support since they are anti US.

What do you all think about Russia's possible involvement against US in Afghanistan?
I am sure they will be laughing at US for committing to a ground WAR in Afghanistan but is there some evidence/news to suggest Russian support to anti US forces in this region?

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Dear u6657606: With due respect you have exaggerated expectations on the effectiveness of intelligence agencies in this context.
The recent bloodshed between Bangash and Tori tribes in Kurram agency and Parachinar was painstakingly nurtured by our intelligence agencies over several months. The aim was to split the tribes on Sunni-Shia lines. In reality it backfired badly. More than 300 lives were lost, but the bogey just wont stick!
Intel services work best when there is an ideological motivation.

What are you basing that claim on?