The Bangladesh factor in a future Pakistan India conflict.

[masterchief_mirza]

This is being over-egged. Bangladesh has nothing to gain from an indo-pak war, whatever the outcome. If it has zero to gain, why would they get involved? They will stay neutral, especially with BJP in charge of Hindustan.

 

[Baibars_1260]

This is being over-egged. Bangladesh has nothing to gain from an indo-pak war, whatever the outcome. If it has zero to gain, why would they get involved? They will stay neutral, especially with BJP in charge of Hindustan.

Sir,
As an answer to your question I am reproducing this portion of my OP for your comments, which I highly value.

Reasons for Bangladesh to join a war against Pakistan:
Economic, diplomatic and political compulsions do produce far fetched scenarios such as the current turn around by most Arab states in favor of Israel. As discussed elsewhere Bangladesh has a severe land and population problem and the solution lies in having open borders with India for population migration. Given the Hindutva rhetoric in India the only way Bangladesh can win over Indian nationalist sentiment is by being more "Hindutva" than the RSS itself.
Since the prime target of Hindutva are Pakistan and Indian Muslims (both of which Bangladesh hates) it makes sense from a strategic point of view to symbolically join the war against Pakistan. Hopefully as a staunch ally a merger with India ( Sikkim style) will be more palatable to a Hindu majority India than it was in 1972 and 1975. The Hindutva regime in India would be closer to their dream of a greater India and it would ensure the Modi regime and its successor Yogi Aditynaths regime a solid electoral foundation going forward for centuries.
( Note: We could discuss Bangladesh's issues in separate thread)

 

[El Sidd]

Good post but could we confine ourselves to the topic.
To summarize my article:
1. Bangladesh and India have an identical foreign and defense policy so far as Pakistan is concerned .
2. Due to climate change, and population pressures Bangladesh has a direct interest in moving even closer to India in a Canada USA like relationship, This can only happen if Bangladesh demonstrates to India that it is fully on board with its nationalist Hindutva agenda targeting Pakistan and Indian Muslims.
3. The Bangladesh Armed Forces have complete interoperability with the Indian Armed Forces and in theory can fight alongside and support India in its war effort against Pakistan.
4. Due to limited capabilities and training Bangladesh's participation in a war against Pakistan will be symbolic but a huge diplomatic and psychological victory over Pakistan, which is what both India and Bangladesh want.
5. In an Pakistan-India-Bangladesh war Pakistan will treat Bangladeshi forces exactly like the enemy and inflict losses accordingly.
6. Question: As the war escalates will Pakistan treat Bangladeshi territory as enemy territory and strike it with weapons of mass destruction?
My answer is YES! Pakistan would annihilate Bangladesh as well in such a conflict, even though that would result in the elimination of the only two "Muslim" nations in the subcontinent.

Bangladesh's proximity to China is of keen international interest. The cold war decade ahead presents Bangladesh as a pivot state.

India would not blindly trust Bangladesh.

A country with a clear power vacuum and a volatile uncertain future ahead, Pakistan can make inroads in her former province without the need to pick any side but it's own.

 

[masterchief_mirza]

Sir,
As an answer to your question I am reproducing this portion of my OP for your comments, which I highly value.

Reasons for Bangladesh to join a war against Pakistan:
Economic, diplomatic and political compulsions do produce far fetched scenarios such as the current turn around by most Arab states in favor of Israel. As discussed elsewhere Bangladesh has a severe land and population problem and the solution lies in having open borders with India for population migration. Given the Hindutva rhetoric in India the only way Bangladesh can win over Indian nationalist sentiment is by being more "Hindutva" than the RSS itself.
Since the prime target of Hindutva are Pakistan and Indian Muslims (both of which Bangladesh hates) it makes sense from a strategic point of view to symbolically join the war against Pakistan. Hopefully as a staunch ally a merger with India ( Sikkim style) will be more palatable to a Hindu majority India than it was in 1972 and 1975. The Hindutva regime in India would be closer to their dream of a greater India and it would ensure the Modi regime and its successor Yogi Aditynaths regime a solid electoral foundation going forward for centuries.
( Note: We could discuss Bangladesh's issues in separate thread)

I feel that the underlying facts presented here are sound and well explained. I still feel there is a certain degree of liberal interpretation of those facts in terms of the extrapolated theory. That isn't to say your assertions are implausible or even improbable. For example:

" prime target of Hindutva are Pakistan and Indian Muslims (both of which Bangladesh hates) "

I feel it is a gross generalisation to state that Bangladesh hates or even is indifferent towards Pakistan and Indian muslims.

However, your general point that Pakistan must be extremely wary of Dhaka's machinations politically holds true. It is appropriate to sound a warning in this regard, so that Pakistanis continue to pursue a political strategy to thwart any risk of a genuine India-Bangladesh alliance forming against Pakistan. Sino-Pak trade leverage may be instrumental in this sense. A more productive relationship involving all 3 countries would severely hamper India's relationship with Dhaka. I sense that many Bangladeshis would actually prefer to be rid of Indian arrogance within their country's dealings once and for all. Pakistan should seize this opportunity, and your comments serve as a timely reminder of this situation as it stands presently.

 

[Baibars_1260]

I feel that the underlying facts presented here are sound and well explained. I still feel there is a certain degree of liberal interpretation of those facts in terms of the extrapolated theory. That isn't to say your assertions are implausible or even improbable. For example:

" prime target of Hindutva are Pakistan and Indian Muslims (both of which Bangladesh hates) "

I feel it is a gross generalisation to state that Bangladesh hates or even is indifferent towards Pakistan and Indian muslims.

Thanks for your excellent well reasoned response.
From personal experience as a Pakistani who has travelled frequently to Bangladesh, and based on anecdotal experience of Indian Muslims shared with me, I do maintain that Bangladeshis have an intense hostility to both Pakistan and Indian Muslims. There are individuals and exceptions to the rule and most of the experiences shared on this forum is among ex-pats and overseas diaspora. Obviously if a Pakistani runs into a Bangladeshi in a mosque in Detroit fist cuffs will not fly.
But the differences are stark !
Bangladeshis wherever possible set up their own mosques, a common phenomenon in UK. Overseas Indian Muslims and Pakistanis share mosques amongst themselves, and with Arabs, Malaysians etc.
Bangladeshis club Indian Muslims as "Bihari" (with another epithet not to be repeated in consideration of forum rules) referring to the 500,000 or so wretched debris of war left behind in their land.
The insularity of the Bangladeshi mindset blocks the reality that not all Indian Muslims are Biharis and they are a diverse lot from Laccativian islanders to Ladakhis.

But returning to the topic:
- Bangladesh never condemns the killing of Indian Muslims and supports the position that pogroms and massacres of Muslims in India is India's internal affair. The only time the Bangladeshi parliament passed a resolution on an event ( NOT India) was in 1983 when they condemned the Nellie massacre of illegal Bengali Muslim immigrants in Assam.
- Bangladesh supports the Hindutva cultural agenda in show piece participation in religious ceremonies to Hindu deities, with Sheikh Hasina recently attributing the good harvest in Bangladesh to a certain female deity . Remarkably this is a statement that even the staunchest Hindutva advocate in India would not have made because they know better that the faith in India is very diverse with each region Southern, Western etc, having its own preferred deity and praise of one over the other is inappropriate.

However, your general point that Pakistan must be extremely wary of Dhaka's machinations politically holds true. It is appropriate to sound a warning in this regard, so that Pakistanis continue to pursue a political strategy to thwart any risk of a genuine India-Bangladesh alliance forming against Pakistan.

Will refer you to my OP again.,
The reality is that the Bangladesh India alliance is cast in stone and due to population and climate change can only get stronger with Bangladesh's eventual capitulation.

Sino-Pak trade leverage may be instrumental in this sense. A more productive relationship involving all 3 countries would severely hamper India's relationship with Dhaka.

This is unlikely to happen. China has its own reasons to wrest Bangladesh away from India. Basically they want to keep India off balance in the North East.
Even the Chinese are realists and realize that any gains in Bangladesh can only be short term. Eventually the geography, population and India's encirclement is against them, and given India's huge media, and linguistic cultural push, the Chinese like the Pakistanis before them are doomed to fail, The language and ethnic chauvinism in Bangladesh is so intense that it overrides religion and geography, a fact realized far too late by Pakistan.
What China can do is create a lobby in Bangladesh such that Bangladesh does not end up fighting it alongside the border in the NE. This task is far more achievable because there is no ground hostility against China as there is against Pakistan and IMs.

I sense that many Bangladeshis would actually prefer to be rid of Indian arrogance within their country's dealings once and for all. Pakistan should seize this opportunity, and your comments serve as a timely reminder of this situation as it stands presently.

Bangladeshi attitudes to Indian "arrogance" are meant for gullible Pakistanis who are unaware of the close military economic relationship between Bangladesh and India. By stirring emotional sentiments such as "Ummah " and "people to people " contact, the Bangladeshis hope to have their cake and eat it too.
It is hopefully an insurance that if the situation goes bad in the scenario described in my OP
they will be let of the hook.
We don't know if that cuts much ice with Pakistan's Nuclear Command Authority and if the sledgehammer hangs equally over Bangladesh.
I suspect it does,

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

The Bangladesh factor in a future Pakistan India conflict.
Can Bangladeshi "neutrality" be taken for granted?
Is it far fetched to assume Bangladesh is not neutral, and does pose a very minuscule but still possible threat to Pakistan?

Let's look at the facts:

1.0 Overall picture:
Bangladesh has supported India in all military action against Pakistan since 1971.
2.0 Military interoperability and alliance:
Bangladesh and India have a formal economic and military alliance , and a complete interoperability and mutual logistics support amongst their armed forces. Bangladesh and Indian armed forces ( particularly the Bangladeshi Navy) exercise and war game with their Indian armed forces counterparts regularly with an undisguised identification of who the "enemy " is.
A large batch of Bangladeshi army officers graduate from India's defense academies ( NDA, Khadakvasla, Indian Military Academy, Dehradun, OTS Madras, ) as well as undergoing advanced training at institutions such as Wellington Staff College. Sharing common equipment BAF maintenance and flying personnel are regularly trained in India.,
2.0 The diplomatic angle:
The Indian Pakistan military confrontations ( Siachen 1985, Operation Brasstacks 1987, Kargil 1999, 2002, 2019, LOC shelling ) have nowhere involved Bangladesh or in anyway affected Bangladeshi security, yet diplomatically Bangladesh has completely sided with India both at international forums such as the UN (or what's left of SAARC ) and on a one on one level echoing the Indian foreign ministry statements and condemning Pakistan.
3.0 Bangladeshi military activity against Pakistan
So far Bangladesh has limited its activity mainly to observers such as during Operations Brass Tacks (1987). Also the BAF takes a keen interest in downed Pakistani military aircraft such as the recovered debris of the PN Breguet Atlantic shot down inside Pakistani airspace by an IAF Mig 21 in 1999.
4. Open threats to Pakistan :
Particularly in 2019 and also before, there have threats made by the foreign office of Bangladesh against Pakistan, echoing the Indian Ministry of Defense and senior Indian Military officers. The threats have been made by the Bangladesh Foreign office only , unlike their ally where chiefs of the three armed forces wings have usually issued threats The Bangladeshi COAS, BAF, ACM, and BN Admiralty have not been making any comments so far.

But why would Bangladesh get involved in an Indian conflict with Pakistan. The simple answer in theory is that there is a mutual defense pact which is supposed to work both ways and India can ask Bangladesh and Bhutan ( and possibly Nepal) to join in a coalition in a war with Pakistan.

The next question is why would India want to involve Bangladesh and Bhutan in a war against Pakistan and would Bangladesh agree.
The answer is that for propaganda purposes India would very much like to have Bangladeshi forces fighting alongside ( deja vu 1971) even though Indian armed forces commanders know that the real impact of Bangladesh's participation in a war with Pakistan would be minimal. Showing a "coalition" is a great diplomatic and psychological warfare feat. Other countries have done this such as the USA who frequently coopts allies in its wars even though their contribution is minimal.
The USA brought Mongolian troops to fight in Iraq as part of the "coalition". The presence of the Mongols ( all 100 of them) was to demoralize the Iraqis recalling the sack of Baghdad by Hulaku Khan in 1258 C.E. The Mongol contingent left after several of their troops were killed by Iraqi resistance.
It's the famous "Us vs You" psychological stance.

Reasons for Bangladesh to join a war against Pakistan:
Economic, diplomatic and political compulsions do produce far fetched scenarios such as the current turn around by most Arab states in favor of Israel. As discussed elsewhere Bangladesh has a severe land and population problem and the solution lies in having open borders with India for population migration. Given the Hindutva rhetoric in India the only way Bangladesh can win over Indian nationalist sentiment is by being more "Hindutva" than the RSS itself.
Since the prime target of Hindutva are Pakistan and Indian Muslims (both of which Bangladesh hates) it makes sense from a strategic point of view to symbolically join the war against Pakistan. Hopefully as a staunch ally a merger with India ( Sikkim style) will be more palatable to a Hindu majority India than it was in 1972 and 1975. The Hindutva regime in India would be closer to their dream of a greater India and it would ensure the Modi regime and its successor Yogi Aditynaths regime a solid electoral foundation going forward for centuries.
( Note: We could discuss Bangladesh's issues in separate thread)
The war game:
We have already war gamed the India Pakistan ultimate showdown scenario and how the war would escalate into a nuclear blood bath so this article is confined to a limited war initiated and planned by the India Bangladesh Axis for a diplomatic and military humiliation of Pakistan where the war would be brief and limited holding the threshold just short of a full Pakistani collapse where Pakistan would use nuclear weapons as a last desperate act of retaliation.
It's a different topic but the war would only be waged when Bangladesh and India believe that Pakistan is sufficiently isolated from its traditional West Asian alliance and economically weakened through international sanctions.
Going forward.
Bangladesh's contribution to India's war effort.
Realistically what would be Bangladesh's contribution to India's military actions on Pakistan's eastern borders.
Air support:
A few BAF Su 30s would probably be flying operations in support of the IAF within Indian airspace . Much of the BAF support would be from transport aircraft as both India and Bangladesh fly C130Js. BAF Mil 17s would probably pitch in. It is doubtful given the training and lack of war experience that BAF would carry out air strikes inside Pakistan, unless they can miraculously come with worthy successors to Rafique and Saiful Azam.
Naval support:
Bangladesh Navy would probably be assisting Indian Navy operations in the Palk Straits trying to intercept Pakistani maritime traffic en-route to China
Army support :
Bangladesh would probably like to avoid casualties hoping for a grand re-enactment of 1971 with the heavy lifting done by India.
BA units are unlikely to be involved in direct fighting especially as there is a severe danger of heavy casualties from a tactical nuclear strike. A few BA units might be positioned as reserves in the rear to function as an occupation force once a portion of the front collapses. India would like to keep the occupied areas under "Muslim" alliance control as their armor moves deeper towards other objectives.
Hopefully the presence of Muslim troops will deter a partisan Mujahid resistance.

The ultimate war game
Pakistan does not share borders with Bangladesh and so there are fewer ways Pakistan can retaliate in a limited conflict. Bangladesh's forces have a huge advantage operating from friendly Indian territory.
. Pakistani submarines would doubtless target Bangladeshi commercial maritime traffic through the Arabian sea and BAF aircraft operating in Indian airspace would be fair game. Bangladesh Army units stationed in the rear of the IB within artillery and MRLS range would definitely be targeted.
We could war game a huge number of scenarios elsewhere but to conclude with the question:

In an ultimate Apocalypse Pakistan would be targeting Kolkata. Would Pakistan strike Dhaka and the rest of Bangladesh as well, knowing that the vast majority of the civilian deaths would be of our so called "brethren in faith" ?

So now 7x bigger india needs bangali help to fight Pakistan????????................

Good post but could we confine ourselves to the topic.
To summarize my article:
1. Bangladesh and India have an identical foreign and defense policy so far as Pakistan is concerned .
2. Due to climate change, and population pressures Bangladesh has a direct interest in moving even closer to India in a Canada USA like relationship, This can only happen if Bangladesh demonstrates to India that it is fully on board with its nationalist Hindutva agenda targeting Pakistan and Indian Muslims.
3. The Bangladesh Armed Forces have complete interoperability with the Indian Armed Forces and in theory can fight alongside and support India in its war effort against Pakistan.
4. Due to limited capabilities and training Bangladesh's participation in a war against Pakistan will be symbolic but a huge diplomatic and psychological victory over Pakistan, which is what both India and Bangladesh want.
5. In an Pakistan-India-Bangladesh war Pakistan will treat Bangladeshi forces exactly like the enemy and inflict losses accordingly.
6. Question: As the war escalates will Pakistan treat Bangladeshi territory as enemy territory and strike it with weapons of mass destruction?
My answer is YES! Pakistan would annihilate Bangladesh as well in such a conflict, even though that would result in the elimination of the only two "Muslim" nations in the subcontinent.

In that case, we should use nukes to wipe bangladesh off the face of the earth forever.

 

[Baibars_1260]

So now 7x bigger india needs bangali help to fight Pakistan????????................

Its building a coalition. The 100x bigger USA needed Pulau and Mongolia to fight Iraq.
India, needs Bhutan, and Maldives also fight Pakistan, India has lost hope to have Sri Lanka and Afghanistan on its side. Bangladesh is a symbolic though reliable military asset.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Its building a coalition. The 100x bigger USA needed Pulau and Mongolia to fight Iraq.
India, needs Bhutan, Maldives also fight Pakistan, India has lost hope to have Sri Lanka and Afghanistan on its side.

In that case we need to create more powerful and effective nukes that can efficiently wipe bangladesh and bangladeshis off the face of the earth FOREVER.

Thanks for your excellent well reasoned response.
From personal experience as a Pakistani who has travelled frequently to Bangladesh, and based on anecdotal experience of Indian Muslims shared with me, I do maintain that Bangladeshis have an intense hostility to both Pakistan and Indian Muslims. There are individuals and exceptions to the rule and most of the experiences shared on this forum is among ex-pats and overseas diaspora. Obviously if a Pakistani runs into a Bangladeshi in a mosque in Detroit fist cuffs will not fly.
But the differences are stark !
Bangladeshis wherever possible set up their own mosques, a common phenomenon in UK. Overseas Indian Muslims and Pakistanis share mosques amongst themselves, and with Arabs, Malaysians etc.
Bangladeshis club Indian Muslims as "Bihari" (with another epithet not to be repeated in consideration of forum rules) referring to the 500,000 or so wretched debris of war left behind in their land.
The insularity of the Bangladeshi mindset blocks the reality that not all Indian Muslims are Biharis and they are a diverse lot from Laccativian islanders to Ladakhis.

But returning to the topic:
- Bangladesh never condemns the killing of Indian Muslims and supports the position that pogroms and massacres of Muslims in India is India's internal affair. The only time the Bangladeshi parliament passed a resolution on an event ( NOT India) was in 1983 when they condemned the Nellie massacre of illegal Bengali Muslim immigrants in Assam.
- Bangladesh supports the Hindutva cultural agenda in show piece participation in religious ceremonies to Hindu deities, with Sheikh Hasina recently attributing the good harvest in Bangladesh to a certain female deity . Remarkably this is a statement that even the staunchest Hindutva advocate in India would not have made because they know better that the faith in India is very diverse with each region Southern, Western etc, having its own preferred deity and praise of one over the other is inappropriate.

Will refer you to my OP again.,
The reality is that the Bangladesh India alliance is cast in stone and due to population and climate change can only get stronger with Bangladesh's eventual capitulation.


This is unlikely to happen. China has its own reasons to wrest Bangladesh away from India. Basically they want to keep India off balance in the North East.
Even the Chinese are realists and realize that any gains in Bangladesh can only be short term. Eventually the geography, population and India's encirclement is against them, and given India's huge media, and linguistic cultural push, the Chinese like the Pakistanis before them are doomed to fail, The language and ethnic chauvinism in Bangladesh is so intense that it overrides religion and geography, a fact realized far too late by Pakistan.
What China can do is create a lobby in Bangladesh such that Bangladesh does not end up fighting it alongside the border in the NE. This task is far more achievable because there is no ground hostility against China as there is against Pakistan and IMs.


Bangladeshi attitudes to Indian "arrogance" are meant for gullible Pakistanis who are unaware of the close military economic relationship between Bangladesh and India. By stirring emotional sentiments such as "Ummah " and "people to people " contact, the Bangladeshis hope to have their cake and eat it too.
It is hopefully an insurance that if the situation goes bad in the scenario described in my OP
they will be let of the hook.
We don't know if that cuts much ice with Pakistan's Nuclear Command Authority and if the sledgehammer hangs equally over Bangladesh.
I suspect it does,

But indian so called "Muslims" are just as anti-Pakistani as are indian hindus and sikhs.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

The 100x bigger USA needed Pulau and Mongolia to fight Iraq.

10 ten times. Get your facts right.

Ps. It did not need Mongolia etc for the combat which was exclusively left to US Army. It needed other countries flags to make it look like a legitimate international effort as opposdd to US bullying a small country.

 

[Jackdaws]

Is this a joke? Why would Bangladesh or anyone else want to even get involved?

 

[Baibars_1260]

10 ten times. Get your facts right.

Ps. It did not need Mongolia etc for the combat which was exclusively left to US Army. It needed other countries flags to make it look like a legitimate international effort as opposdd to US bullying a small country.

My apologies ! You are entirely correct
However if you do a search Mongolian troops were involved in minor combat.,
Which is what I am essentially saying. Refer to my opening post.

India doesn't need Bangladesh to take on Pakistan. But having Bangladesh involved is a huge diplomatic and psychological victory over Pakistan.
My personal opinion...and I have no facts to back this up ( given the highly classified nature of defense doctrines) is that Pakistan's defense establishment has war gamed this scenario, and symbolic or not Bangladesh forces in India and Bangladesh territory would legitimate targets.

 

[arjunk]

Pakistan can cripple Bangladesh easily, but it is a waste of resources which we need against India. As a small puppet state, Bangladesh is largely irrelevant in the regional or global stage.

-Pakistani subs will attack Bangladesh (a2a and s2s combat)
-Pakistani missiles can strike anywhere in Bangladesh
-The BAF is so small and inexperienced it will be target practice for the PAF

If Bangladesh involves itself in such a conflict it is giving permission to Pakistan to destroy it. A single nuke will damage Bangladesh more than any other country in the world, with the effects of one over Dhaka reaching the whole country and its 160 million+ dense population.

China will not be pleased either. The Muslims of Bangladesh will be angry at this decision as well.

Therefore it is suicidal for Bangladesh and will have no effect on the outcome of the conflict.

 

[sady]

Bangladesh is irrelevant. They chose stability over relevancy. They will have a mundane existence sans any excitement.

 

[masterchief_mirza]

Thanks for your excellent well reasoned response.
From personal experience as a Pakistani who has travelled frequently to Bangladesh, and based on anecdotal experience of Indian Muslims shared with me, I do maintain that Bangladeshis have an intense hostility to both Pakistan and Indian Muslims. There are individuals and exceptions to the rule and most of the experiences shared on this forum is among ex-pats and overseas diaspora. Obviously if a Pakistani runs into a Bangladeshi in a mosque in Detroit fist cuffs will not fly.
But the differences are stark !
Bangladeshis wherever possible set up their own mosques, a common phenomenon in UK. Overseas Indian Muslims and Pakistanis share mosques amongst themselves, and with Arabs, Malaysians etc.
Bangladeshis club Indian Muslims as "Bihari" (with another epithet not to be repeated in consideration of forum rules) referring to the 500,000 or so wretched debris of war left behind in their land.
The insularity of the Bangladeshi mindset blocks the reality that not all Indian Muslims are Biharis and they are a diverse lot from Laccativian islanders to Ladakhis.

But returning to the topic:
- Bangladesh never condemns the killing of Indian Muslims and supports the position that pogroms and massacres of Muslims in India is India's internal affair. The only time the Bangladeshi parliament passed a resolution on an event ( NOT India) was in 1983 when they condemned the Nellie massacre of illegal Bengali Muslim immigrants in Assam.
- Bangladesh supports the Hindutva cultural agenda in show piece participation in religious ceremonies to Hindu deities, with Sheikh Hasina recently attributing the good harvest in Bangladesh to a certain female deity . Remarkably this is a statement that even the staunchest Hindutva advocate in India would not have made because they know better that the faith in India is very diverse with each region Southern, Western etc, having its own preferred deity and praise of one over the other is inappropriate.

Will refer you to my OP again.,
The reality is that the Bangladesh India alliance is cast in stone and due to population and climate change can only get stronger with Bangladesh's eventual capitulation.


This is unlikely to happen. China has its own reasons to wrest Bangladesh away from India. Basically they want to keep India off balance in the North East.
Even the Chinese are realists and realize that any gains in Bangladesh can only be short term. Eventually the geography, population and India's encirclement is against them, and given India's huge media, and linguistic cultural push, the Chinese like the Pakistanis before them are doomed to fail, The language and ethnic chauvinism in Bangladesh is so intense that it overrides religion and geography, a fact realized far too late by Pakistan.
What China can do is create a lobby in Bangladesh such that Bangladesh does not end up fighting it alongside the border in the NE. This task is far more achievable because there is no ground hostility against China as there is against Pakistan and IMs.


Bangladeshi attitudes to Indian "arrogance" are meant for gullible Pakistanis who are unaware of the close military economic relationship between Bangladesh and India. By stirring emotional sentiments such as "Ummah " and "people to people " contact, the Bangladeshis hope to have their cake and eat it too.
It is hopefully an insurance that if the situation goes bad in the scenario described in my OP
they will be let of the hook.
We don't know if that cuts much ice with Pakistan's Nuclear Command Authority and if the sledgehammer hangs equally over Bangladesh.
I suspect it does,

Good points, especially about the geography. Whichever way one slices it, and however severe the threat actually is (I feel it is less than you are asserting), the fact remains that Pakistan should be prepared in itself for this possibility. I'm confident that they are. However I will maintain that popular opinion in Bangladesh - however hostile it may or may not be towards Pakistan - will overwhelmingly favour neutrality in this scenario. Hasina may of course continue with clandestine military support for India but she would never make it public as that would create a new threat to her position and to her personally. Pakistan is ready either way.

 

[Baibars_1260]

Pakistan can cripple Bangladesh easily, but it is a waste of resources which we need against India. As a small puppet state, Bangladesh is largely irrelevant in the regional or global stage.

-Pakistani subs will attack Bangladesh (a2a and s2s combat)
-Pakistani missiles can strike anywhere in Bangladesh
-The BAF is so small and inexperienced it will be target practice for the PAF

If Bangladesh involves itself in such a conflict it is giving permission to Pakistan to destroy it. A single nuke will damage Bangladesh more than any other country in the world, with the effects of one over Dhaka reaching the whole country and its 160 million+ dense population.

Therefore it is suicidal for Bangladesh and will have no effect on the outcome of the conflict.

Good post !
Ethnic jingoism and a fascist mindset and a revival of "a victory " can make nations do strange things.
Serbs thought they were special, Saddam whipped up Iraqi nationalist sentiment into a disastrous war against Kuwaits,
Bangladesh is going through the same nationalist jingoism that prevails next door.
Eventually such jingoism needs an outlet, especially when there are grave economic and survival challenges.
A member here wrote ;
"Bengali nationalism cannot be confined within the borders of an artificial state "
The artificial state here is possibly India because Bangladesh is looking for more land Northwards. Pakistan is out of the equation so there is no land Bangladesh can demand from Pakistan .
Once jingoism has been built up beyond reasonable limits it goes out of control.
So now even after the creation of Bangladesh there is talk of Bengali Nationalism when there is no threat to Bangladesh from any ( for want of a better word) "Anti-Bengali Forces " . I often ask our Bangladeshi guests on this forum when they are discussing military hardware
"Whom are you going to fight? "

The reality is that Bengali Nationalism implies Bengali Muslim Nationalism, ( the old 1947 pudding is back in the oven). Bengali Nationalism to a Bangladeshi does not mean the chaste secular inclusive,Bengali Nationalism of the Bengali Renaissance that steered the sub continent into the modern era and also laid the groundwork for the anti Imperialist struggle. The nationalism of Subhas Bose is not the nationalism of Maulana Bhashani.
India is well aware of that, The Indians have far more insight into the Bangladeshi mind ( as distinct from the West Bengali Muslim mind) then any Pakistani diplomat or Bangladesh watcher in the Pakistani FM. They know that Gani Khan Chaudhuri from Malda is a different person from Kamal Hossein ( Faridpur???).
Bangladesh has no choice but to do exactly as India says. Even if it wants to be different it can't. Their diplomats are simply no match for India.
It is axiomatic that a larger diverse nation can muster extreme soft power resources over any mono-lingual mono-cultural nation.

One of the things India hates about Pakistan is that Pakistan is leveraging its cultural diversity to move closer to Central Asia and China. Pakistan is not in a cultural and language trap, and it enjoys linguistic advantage over India with regards to its neighbors. In 1971 the roles were reversed with India enjoying complete linguistic superiority in Bangladesh.