The Bangladesh factor in a future Pakistan India conflict.

[KaiserX]

Are we discussing an India Bangladesh show down? Foreign policy and geopolitics suggests otherwise.
My two cents:
The whole of Bangladesh is under Indian MRLS range. It wouldn't need. much effort for India to stomp the Bangladesh Armed Forcesc into pulp.,

The BD military could use its huge population and small land size to move massive divisons much more rapidly to the Indian border. but a few key disadvantage hinders this ie low focus on military, major population centers are situated along the bengal delta, lack of infrastructure.

If BD wants to be any sort of influence then they need to be a sparta state ie similar to what Israel, Taiwan, and UAE are today. Small lean technologically integrated militaries armed to the teeth with assymetrical weapons.

For that Air force, Drones, advanced C4I, Cruise missiles, Ballistic missiles are needed for which BD is 0 in at the moment.

Had Pakistan-Bangladesh great relations then im sure many things would be different for the state of the BD military.

 

[Baibars_1260]

Pakistan can cripple Bangladesh easily, but it is a waste of resources which we need against India. As a small puppet state, Bangladesh is largely irrelevant in the regional or global stage.

-Pakistani subs will attack Bangladesh (a2a and s2s combat)
-Pakistani missiles can strike anywhere in Bangladesh
-The BAF is so small and inexperienced it will be target practice for the PAF

If Bangladesh involves itself in such a conflict it is giving permission to Pakistan to destroy it. A single nuke will damage Bangladesh more than any other country in the world, with the effects of one over Dhaka reaching the whole country and its 160 million+ dense population.

Therefore it is suicidal for Bangladesh and will have no effect on the outcome of the conflict.

Good post !
Ethnic jingoism and a fascist mindset and a revival of "a victory " can make nations do strange things.
Serbs thought they were special, Saddam whipped up Iraqi nationalist sentiment into a disastrous war against Kuwaits,
Bangladesh is going through the same nationalist jingoism that prevails next door.
Eventually such jingoism needs an outlet, especially when there are grave economic and survival challenges.
A member here wrote ;
"Bengali nationalism cannot be confined within the borders of an artificial state "
The artificial state here is possibly India because Bangladesh is looking for more land Northwards. Pakistan is out of the equation so there is no land Bangladesh can demand from Pakistan .
Once jingoism has been built up beyond reasonable limits it goes out of control.
So now even after the creation of Bangladesh there is talk of Bengali Nationalism when there is no threat to Bangladesh from any ( for want of a better word) "Anti-Bengali Forces " . I often ask our Bangladeshi guests on this forum when they are discussing military hardware
"Whom are you going to fight? "

The reality is that Bengali Nationalism implies Bengali Muslim Nationalism, ( the old 1947 pudding is back in the oven). Bengali Nationalism to a Bangladeshi does not mean the chaste secular inclusive,Bengali Nationalism of the Bengali Renaissance that steered the sub continent into the modern era and also laid the groundwork for the anti Imperialist struggle. The nationalism of Subhas Bose is not the nationalism of Maulana Bhashani.
India is well aware of that, The Indians have far more insight into the Bangladeshi mind ( as distinct from the West Bengali Muslim mind) then any Pakistani diplomat or Bangladesh watcher in the Pakistani FM. They know that Gani Khan Chaudhuri from Malda is a different person from Kamal Hossein ( Faridpur???).
Bangladesh has no choice but to do exactly as India says. Even if it wants to be different it can't. Their diplomats are simply no match for India.
It is axiomatic that a larger diverse nation can muster extreme soft power resources over any mono-lingual mono-cultural nation.

One of the things India hates about Pakistan is that Pakistan is leveraging its cultural diversity to move closer to Central Asia and China. Pakistan is not in a cultural and language trap, and it enjoys linguistic advantage over India with regards to its neighbors. In 1971 the roles were reversed with India enjoying complete linguistic superiority in Bangladesh.

However I will maintain that popular opinion in Bangladesh - however hostile it may or may not be towards Pakistan - will overwhelmingly favour neutrality in this scenario. Hasina may of course continue with clandestine military support for India but she would never make it public as that would create a new threat to her position and to her personally. Pakistan is ready either way.

Very relevant points.
Pakistan doesn't need to be militarily prepared as such. There is no common border with Bangladesh and the military threat with Bangladesh alone is zero.
It is the potential diplomatic and psychological humiliation of Pakistan that could happen if Bangladesh decides to join a military coalition with India during a conflict.
Regardless of what the Bangladeshi population thinks, India has huge financial assets to bribe the Bangladeshi mass media and change public sentiment. India is already well on its way in this endeavor.
The obvious propaganda ( already in the first stage) is " revenge for 1971" . Unfortunately Pakistanis do not watch Bangladeshi soaps, or their writings online on web forums because these are exclusively in Bengali .
The biggest charade and lie being propagated right here on this forum is that the Bangladeshis are neutral between India and Pakistan, Sit in the Dhaka University tea shop and you will hear something very different.
Ironically the best friends of Pakistan are the secular Hindu Bengali Marxists and liberals of West Bengal who are pretty open to Pakistan , Pakistani culture, Indian Muslims and Urdu , while at the same time preserving the best of Bengali culture themselves. They are not in a perpetual conflict situation despite being second generation refugees from erstwhile East Bengal,
The Bangladeshis are riding a tiger of ethnic chauvinism with a diminishing land mass. The Hindutva regime will use Bangladesh as one more tool to humiliate Pakistan.
Unfortunately this will have unintended consequences as mentioned in my opening post.
I personally believe that an entire people should not be punished for the deeds of a few.

 

[rent4country]

I feel that the underlying facts presented here are sound and well explained. I still feel there is a certain degree of liberal interpretation of those facts in terms of the extrapolated theory. That isn't to say your assertions are implausible or even improbable. For example:

" prime target of Hindutva are Pakistan and Indian Muslims (both of which Bangladesh hates) "

I feel it is a gross generalisation to state that Bangladesh hates or even is indifferent towards Pakistan and Indian muslims.

However, your general point that Pakistan must be extremely wary of Dhaka's machinations politically holds true. It is appropriate to sound a warning in this regard, so that Pakistanis continue to pursue a political strategy to thwart any risk of a genuine India-Bangladesh alliance forming against Pakistan. Sino-Pak trade leverage may be instrumental in this sense. A more productive relationship involving all 3 countries would severely hamper India's relationship with Dhaka. I sense that many Bangladeshis would actually prefer to be rid of Indian arrogance within their country's dealings once and for all. Pakistan should seize this opportunity, and your comments serve as a timely reminder of this situation as it stands presently.

Given your affinity to mock sentence structure, grammar, and typos...

I feel it is a gross generalisation to state that Bangladesh hates or even is indifferent towards Pakistan and Indian Muslims.

...extremely wary of Dhaka's machinations politically holds true. It is appropriate to sound a warning in this regard (,) so that Pakistanis continue to pursue a political strategy

 

[Baibars_1260]

Just to clarify:
My post is intended to portray a remotely possible geopolitical scenario.
For the record:
I salute the Bengali language, and Bengali culture.
If there is any language that I love above my own mother tongue Urdu, it is chaste Bengali with the Kolkata accent , I am not proficient in the language and can barely speak it but merely hearing it is a pleasure. My preference for the Kolkata accent is personal with no prejudice to others just as someone would prefer BBC English over an American accent.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Just to clarify:
My post is intended to portray a remotely possible geopolitical scenario.
For the record:
I salute the Bengali language, and Bengali culture.
If there is any language that I love above my own mother tongue Urdu, it is chaste Bengali with the Kolkata accent , I am not proficient in the language and can barely speak it but merely hearing it is a pleasure. My preference for the Kolkata accent is personal with no prejudice to others just as someone would prefer BBC English over an American accent.

you salute them even though they are vehemently anti-Pakistani...................................

 

[Baibars_1260]

you salute them even though they are vehemently anti-Pakistani...................................

You misunderstand. Please read my previous post.
I was referring to secular West Bengali intellectuals. They are completely different and are the best friends Muslims and Pakistanis ever had. Mamta Bannerjee is not Hasina Wajed and is far better informed about Islam, Muslims and Pakistan than the lady next door.
It doesn't matter if Mamta Bannerjee is a Bengali Brahmin.
Please don't paint all Bengalis with the same brush. There are Bengali Hindus of West Bengal and ....
(well different...).
If you can befriend a West Bengali intellectual. You will be surprised how fluent they are in spoken simple Urdu. Even their accents are near perfect.

 

[Michael Corleone]

Bangaldesh’s foreign policy won’t allow it to be involved with any way that doesn’t pose a threat to its existence.

Just to clarify:
My post is intended to portray a remotely possible geopolitical scenario.
For the record:
I salute the Bengali language, and Bengali culture.
If there is any language that I love above my own mother tongue Urdu, it is chaste Bengali with the Kolkata accent , I am not proficient in the language and can barely speak it but merely hearing it is a pleasure. My preference for the Kolkata accent is personal with no prejudice to others just as someone would prefer BBC English over an American accent.

Kolkata itself have multiple accents, which one you’re talking about?

 

[Baibars_1260]

Bangaldesh’s foreign policy won’t allow it to be involved with any way that doesn’t pose a threat to its existence.

Kolkata itself have multiple accents, which one you’re talking about?

Obviously I am not referring to the accent used in East Bengal Hindu refugee paras, though even that has changed somewhat,
Its not the "se-se " with every word ending with a "se"
The accents that used to exist in bastis of Topsia and Tangra ( bastis that no longer exist) has undergone a change because of the influx of a labor force from the provinces of Bihar, UP, Orissa Andhra, Jharkhand. This labor force speaks pidgin Bengali in their own accents. Kolkata is a cosmopolitan city so it has a very large professional techie and business population , from other states of India who speak every language in India from Khasi in Meghalaya to Gujarati, Tamils , Marathi and Marwari. They all speak fairly fluent Bengali with slight typical accents, but like every cosmopolitan city in India the primary language of communication amongst professionals is English. As a Pakistani I was amazed at the fluency and competency in English in the vast majority of the middle class population from the sales clerk, movie theater usher, the Railway information desk.
You would see 14 year old schoolchildren in neat uniforms chatting in fluent grammatical English interspersed with Bengali when waiting for their school bus. This is a rare sight back in Pakistan,
So back to the accents:
I am referring to the bhadralok accent used by TV news announcers, and Tolleygunj movie and theater actors. The Bengali spoken in the Salt Lake Area.
Also the rashtryo gaan singers that I uploaded earlier.
See the video below, and note the Aparna's accent,

Also see the charming song below
(Note the accent)

 

[Michael Corleone]

Obviously I am not referring to the accent used in East Bengal Hindu refugee paras, though even that has changed somewhat,
Its not the "se-se " with every word ending with a "se"
The accents that used to exist in bastis of Topsia and Tangra ( bastis that no longer exist) has undergone a change because of the influx of a labor force from the provinces of Bihar, UP, Orissa Andhra, Jharkhand. This labor force speaks pidgin Bengali in their own accents. Kolkata is a cosmopolitan city so it has a very large professional techie and business population , from other states of India who speak every language in India from Khasi in Meghalaya to Gujarati, Tamils , Marathi and Marwari. They all speak fairly fluent Bengali with slight typical accents, but like every cosmopolitan city in India the primary language of communication amongst professionals is English. As a Pakistani I was amazed at the fluency and competency in English in the vast majority of the middle class population from the sales clerk, movie theater usher, the Railway information desk.
You would see 14 year old schoolchildren in neat uniforms chatting in fluent grammatical English interspersed with Bengali when waiting for their school bus. This is a rare sight back in Pakistan,
So back to the accents:
I am referring to the bhadralok accent used by TV news announcers, and Tolleygunj movie and theater actors. The Bengali spoken in the Salt Lake Area.
Also the rashtryo gaan singers that I uploaded earlier.
See the video below, and note the Aparna's accent,

Also see the charming song below
(Note the accent)

Yet you’re still not being specific. You’re mixing up dialect with accent or else you would be more specific about the regional accent. Frankly it seems you don’t know

 

[Baibars_1260]

Yet you’re still not being specific. You’re mixing up dialect with accent or else you would be more specific about the regional accent. Frankly it seems you don’t know

Am not a linguist. I never used the word dialect, but only accent and I gave you my preference.

The "se-se" is unintelligible to me. I gave you audio video examples of the standard middle class Kolkata West Bengali accent.
Please classify what you heard as a dialect or accent. Will take your word for it.
As I said I just love West Bengali culture. I think differently about Dhaka when in the Sonargaon coffeeshop I overhear the waiter referring to me as Pakikukkur.

Could we return to the topic?
On Bangladesh's foreign and military policy and neutrality?

1. Could you explain the "Mutual Treaty of Friendship signed between India and Bangladesh in 1972 ?

India-Bangladesh defence cooperation: Coming of age, at last?

India-Bangladesh defence cooperation: Coming of age, at last?

www.orfonline.org

How would your Foreign Ministry respond if India invoked Art 9 below .---------------

In accordance with the ties of friendship existing between the two countries, each of the contracting parties solemnly declare that it shall not enter into or participate in any military alliance directed against the other party. Each of the parties shall refrain from any aggression against the other party and shall not allow the use of its territory for committing any act that may cause military damage to or continue to threat to the security of the other contracting parties;

(ix) Each of the contracting parties shall refrain from giving any assistance to any third party taking part in an armed conflict against the other party. In case if either party is attacked or threatened to attack, the contracting parties shall immediately enter into mutual consultations to take necessary measures to eliminate the threat and thus ensure the peace and security of their countries;

 

[Imran Khan]

only factor is we have to take care BD when nuking east india . dont worry we will not nuke assam

 

[Michael Corleone]

Am not a linguist. I never used the word dialect, but only accent and I gave you my preference.

The "se-se" is unintelligible to me. I gave you audio video examples of the standard middle class Kolkata West Bengali accent.
Please classify what you heard as a dialect or accent. Will take your word for it.
As I said I just love West Bengali culture. I think differently about Dhaka when in the Sonargaon coffeeshop I overhear the waiter referring to me as Pakikukkur.

Could we return to the topic?
On Bangladesh's foreign and military policy and neutrality?

1. Could you explain the "Mutual Treaty of Friendship signed between India and Bangladesh in 1972 ?

India-Bangladesh defence cooperation: Coming of age, at last?

India-Bangladesh defence cooperation: Coming of age, at last?

www.orfonline.org

How would your Foreign Ministry respond if India invoked Art 9 below .---------------

In accordance with the ties of friendship existing between the two countries, each of the contracting parties solemnly declare that it shall not enter into or participate in any military alliance directed against the other party. Each of the parties shall refrain from any aggression against the other party and shall not allow the use of its territory for committing any act that may cause military damage to or continue to threat to the security of the other contracting parties;

(ix) Each of the contracting parties shall refrain from giving any assistance to any third party taking part in an armed conflict against the other party. In case if either party is attacked or threatened to attack, the contracting parties shall immediately enter into mutual consultations to take necessary measures to eliminate the threat and thus ensure the peace and security of their countries;

The song you linked is a poetic dialect that originates somewhere in Bangladesh, Tagore used it often. I don’t remember who told me this, @Bilal9 bhai should remember.
pas for the woman speaking bangla, that dialect is not specific to Kolkata, this is how formal bangla is spoken. the woman on the left sounds like a Bangladeshi speaker speaking formal Bengali, people of murshidabad speaks like this. However the interviewer is fromregion outside murshidabad and she sounds like the typical cringe bangla that I hate

bangla is spoken with different dialects or accents depending on region, in my country regional dialect is encouraged as we respect in people’s identity. And casteism isn’t our culture

 

[CrazyZ]

Bangladesh won't take part in any future Indo-Pak conflict for a number of reasons (distance, Nukes...etc). However climate change and sea level rise could lead to a destabilizing turn in India-Bangladesh relations. Climate refugees streaming into India could be a major source of conflict and instability in the future. Something Pakistan should be alert too.

 

[Baibars_1260]

Bangladesh won't take part in any future Indo-Pak conflict for a number of reasons (distance, Nukes...etc). However climate change and sea level rise could lead to a destabilizing turn in India-Bangladesh relations. Climate refugees streaming into India could be a major source of conflict and instability in the future. Something Pakistan should be alert too.

Long term climate change is an issue . For the immediate future refer to extract from the Bangladesh India Defense treaty:
"Art 9.
Each of the contracting parties shall refrain from giving any assistance to any third party taking part in an armed conflict against the other party. In case if either party is attacked or threatened to attack, the contracting parties shall immediately enter into mutual consultations to take necessary measures to eliminate the threat and thus ensure the peace and security of their countries;"
The treaty has been renewed once and is due for renewal again in 2022. It is possible that Art 9 will be made more specific with the mention of joint military action.
The assertion that Bangladesh will not take part in a future Indo-Pak conflict does not hold true even with the treaty in its present form. India can if it chooses invoke the clause and demand Bangladesh participation in the war.,

 

[Avicenna]

Sir,
As an answer to your question I am reproducing this portion of my OP for your comments, which I highly value.

Reasons for Bangladesh to join a war against Pakistan:
Economic, diplomatic and political compulsions do produce far fetched scenarios such as the current turn around by most Arab states in favor of Israel. As discussed elsewhere Bangladesh has a severe land and population problem and the solution lies in having open borders with India for population migration. Given the Hindutva rhetoric in India the only way Bangladesh can win over Indian nationalist sentiment is by being more "Hindutva" than the RSS itself.
Since the prime target of Hindutva are Pakistan and Indian Muslims (both of which Bangladesh hates) it makes sense from a strategic point of view to symbolically join the war against Pakistan. Hopefully as a staunch ally a merger with India ( Sikkim style) will be more palatable to a Hindu majority India than it was in 1972 and 1975. The Hindutva regime in India would be closer to their dream of a greater India and it would ensure the Modi regime and its successor Yogi Aditynaths regime a solid electoral foundation going forward for centuries.
( Note: We could discuss Bangladesh's issues in separate thread)