Testing closed system theory on Taliban do they need foreign money?

[jaibi]

I always pass my words and share my views with friends from the concerned departments, they hear me out, they like it, but i see no implementation, no one bothers looking into it.

We're just not an analytical people. We don't want to analyse and solve. That's my own experience and we pay dearly for that.

 

[Fracker]

We're just not an analytical people. We don't want to analyse and solve. That's my own experience and we pay dearly for that.

Nice Article, Also read the stats of ransom cases with number and money involve in this business for last 10 years, you will get idea , from where these terrorists are getting money also who they are.. Best of Luck for your research

 

[jaibi]

Nice Article, Also read the stats of ransom cases with number and money involve in this business for last 10 years, you will get idea , from where these terrorists are getting money also who they are.. Best of Luck for your research

Thank you for reading my piece, sir. I actually did collect the sum of all various reported earnings of the Talibs, which according to my calculations came between 500-200 million USD. I chose the lower number for their revenue and the greatest one for their expenses: e.g. USD 10,000 is actually the lowest projected sum for international terrorist attacks like 9/11 and such not really committed by nationals on soil thus increasing the logistics cost considerably. Most likely the cost per terrorist attack in Pakistan is much much lower.

 

[Bratva]

Sir if they will not it people will do it on their and that would be revolution and that can be real deadly one Sir and USA has killed Muslims Sir in Iraq in Afghanistan in Palestine Sir and and to this day they are killing Muslims Sir and they would pay the price for it and those secular who support these terrorists they would be wiped out

Which people you are talking about? 30-40 Million voted for Democratic Pakistan,, who wants to see, Pakistan prosper first, elimination of Terrorism.

Next time, instead of blabbering like a fool, talk on facts, The fact I showed 30-40 Million Pakistanis want Prosper pakistan instead of Islam being implemented in Pakistan first.

It's people like you that are dragging Pakistan in every quagmire and destroying Pakistan from within now a days.

Secular Turkey is prospering today in world, due to Non-implementation of Islam there.

America did that,,, do that,,, blah blah... Never talks on facts.

Instead of pulling imaginary people out of your back, next time support your argument in a factual manner.

 

[Zarvan]

Which people you are talking about? 30-40 Million voted for Democratic Pakistan,, who wants to see, Pakistan prosper first, elimination of Terrorism.

Next time, instead of blabbering like a fool, talk on facts, The fact I showed 30-40 Million Pakistanis want Prosper pakistan instead of Islam being implemented in Pakistan first.

It's people like you that are dragging Pakistan in every quagmire and destroying Pakistan from within now a days.

Secular Turkey is prospering today in world, due to Non-implementation of Islam there.

America did that,,, do that,,, blah blah... Never talks on facts.

Instead of pulling imaginary people out of your back, next time support your argument in a factual manner.

Less than half of them voted for this elections than funny thing is even the vote is divided out of those votes those who have 25 seats or 35 % rules majority WOW what a system

Which people you are talking about? 30-40 Million voted for Democratic Pakistan,, who wants to see, Pakistan prosper first, elimination of Terrorism.

Next time, instead of blabbering like a fool, talk on facts, The fact I showed 30-40 Million Pakistanis want Prosper pakistan instead of Islam being implemented in Pakistan first.

It's people like you that are dragging Pakistan in every quagmire and destroying Pakistan from within now a days.

Secular Turkey is prospering today in world, due to Non-implementation of Islam there.

America did that,,, do that,,, blah blah... Never talks on facts.

Instead of pulling imaginary people out of your back, next time support your argument in a factual manner.

Mr Turkey is prospering under Erogdan Sir who is known Islamist he is slowly moving Turkey towards Islam Sir he can't do it faster because they Kemalism followers and secular are still quite strong but now things are changing and Islam would be back in Turkey facts USA the one used nuclear weapons USA who attacked Vietnam USA who caused trouble in South America USA who attacked Iraq twice USA who attacked Afghanistan USA who uses drone to kill 2700 people only in our Tribal areas USA who bullies every other nation USA who support idiots like Saddam first than Hosni Mubarak and Ali of Tunisia and not to forget those Red Indians who are never mentioned in history want to talk about facts Mr

 

[jaibi]

@Azlan Haider @Alpha1 @Jazzbot this was the article.

 

[Bratva]

Terrorist in Balochistan and FATA received more than 30 Billion rs last year through Hundi system and our Financial monitoring unit specifically established to track and report financial movement didn't knew/detect such large money coming in to country. Such is the pathetic performance of our security apparatus

 

[Secur]

Less than half of them voted for this elections than funny thing is even the vote is divided out of those votes those who have 25 seats or 35 % rules majority WOW what a system

Just answer me a simple question , go read the history of Pakistan from any source and then tell me " Why , just why , in the history of this country , have Islamist and their political parties failed to form Federal Government and except for some instances , even the Provincial Governments forming the coalition or piggybacking on the same seculars/liberals they despise or taking the help and assistance of military if indeed the Pakistanis so much want the Islamic system/laws or Sharia as per your lot's common thinking pattern ?

Yes people vote for different political parties and that is how the votes get divided , the majority forms the Govt . You do know what democracy is , right , or you still want some " chosen elders " to decide our rulers ? That , where the pious and infallible elders would come and how will people agree with their decision , of course is another debate .

 

[Juice]

An excellent and original piece. Expand this and you could see a PhD out of it, or at the least a grant. I have some grant-writing experience. send me a PM. While some thoughts may have been floated on this already (likely have been at NSA level, etc.) This will put in into inter-service level of awareness.

 

[Secur]

Turkey is prospering under Erogdan Sir who is known Islamist

Yes it is prospering , but what does Erdogan's personal belief have to do with it , by any chance , when in Turkiye the religion has nothing to do with the business of the state ? For the rest , a long long time ago , I asked you to research the number of Muslims killed by Muslims and the past and current civil wars in Islamic countries and then compare it with the number of " Muslims " killed by the Infidels and then tell me who wins that contest . @mafiya You may want to help him here .

@jaibi I apologize for posting this off topic post in this thread .

 

[qamar1990]

Financing Terror: Testing the Closed-system Theory

Introduction

Most Pakistanis believe that Terrorism and terrorist activities are a part of a wider ‘game’ and politics. India, America, Afghanistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and a nexus of other alliances are often held responsible in the media and collective conscious of the people are responsible for providing the terrorists with funding and logistical support to attack Pakistan and operate within Pakistan.
On the other side of the spectrum it has been noted that terrorist organisations in other parts of the world have operated in what can now be called as a ‘in-system’ or ‘closed-system’ economy (Dalyan, 2008; FATF-GAFI, 2008). Essentially what it means is that the terrorist organisations invest considerably in a relatively stable economic infrastructure which supports their operational capabilities much like economies that focus on isolation in terms of capital generation capabilities (Clarida, Gali, & Gertler, 2001; Vlachos, Georgiadis & Iakovou,2007).

The main sources of income for the organisations are stated to be as follows: state-sponsership, criminal enterprise, regular enterprise and private support. Most Pakistanis favour the first ‘state-sponsership’ as the main source of funding for terrorist operations within their own country however it should be noted that empirically the evidence for this type of funding has decreased Bantekas, 2003; Clunan, 2006; Hardoin & Weichhardt , 2003). This is in part due to the difficulty the post-9/11 legislation poses to moving large finances (see, FATF-GAFI report for a detailed description of financial operations of terrorist organisations).

The next source seems to have taken precedence and there seems to be a logical tactical advantage to that as well (Brigadier Shahid, personal communication, 2013) for it should be noted that direct control over the economic infrastructure enhances the operational capabilities of an entity (Sanderson, 2004).

Taking this strategy a bit further it should be noted that there have been cases of a ‘nexus’ amongst criminal and anti-state organisations for both share a number of features namely, the opposition to state hold, a preference for a lower law and order hold on operational areas, intimidation of local populace where operations are carried out and state independent economic holdings (Sanderson, 2004).

Thus, expounding this theory further it should also be noted that once generation and sustainance of funding reaches a certain level a small organisation looks to invest and diversify its holdings and sources of income (Narula, 2002) this is why some theorists have pointed out that terrorist organisations most probably support legitimate businesses and use it for ‘white-washing’ and ‘asset management’ (Napoleoni, 2004) whereas there is a possibility of using it as recruitment grounds as well.

An interesting note is also on the use of charities for financing terrorism though in the present times (2013) it is most likely used more for asset management than revenue generation (author’s opinion).

Research Questions

Taking into account the hidden nature of the data this study aims to put to the test the closed-system theory. The research questions of this study are as follows:

i. Can the cost of organisational expense of terrorit organisations be be explained by closed-system ?

ii. Is the closed system economy adequate for sustaining terrorist operations in Pakistan?

iii. Can the terrorist incidents pattern be explained by closed-system economy?

Cost of a terrorist operation

It is hard to measure the financial cost of executing a terrorist operation mostly due to the fact that most of the raw materials are procured via the black market which is difficult to analyse in terms of economics. However, projective costs have been estimated by various studies and for the purpose of this study the cost per terrorist operation will be taken into account as USD 10,000 (Reese, 2009) This is because of the dearth of studies on financial cost of terrorist operations within Pakistan and because the above stated figure is internationally agreed upon minimum cap for international strikes thus it makes sense to cap it as such as most probably the cost is lower than that in Pakistan (Brig. Shahid, personal communication, 2013).

Organisational expense

The terrorist organisations in Pakistan are organisations and it is natural that they operate like one. Every organisation has a cost of existing which is also called organisational expense, it includes the cost of running day to day operations of the organisation. Though there is not a comprehensive model of the organisational structure of the terrorist organisations in Pakistan there is a high probability that they emulate the organisational structure of the 1980s raised original Mujahideen groups against the Soviets for most of their training was received in such formations (Nawaz, 2009). Thus, the organisational model of the focus of this study, the Taliban of Pakistan, is modelled on the Afghani chapter of the Taliban (see Afsar, Samples & Wood, 2008) with almost 8 major departments of functioning with 10% going as running costs (Afsar, Samples & Wood, 2008; Harrison & Price, 2002)

Closed-system economies

The studies on closed system economies suggest that there is a probable variation of about 15% in the overall economic revenue generated by closed-systems that figure will be taken into account. As per most preliminary analysis of the financial infrastructure of the Pakistani terrorist organisations, specifically the TTP, suggests that their revenue generation capabilities have not been greatly perturbed by the military operations against them. In fact they have focused more on diversifying the economic arm of their infrastructure as the civilian component and administration of the counterinsurgency programme has not been up to the mark forcing the military to establish control multiple times on territories already cleared of militants (Nawaz, 2009; 2011). Thus, allowing the Taliban to change tactics and focus revenue generation elsewhere in the nation with heavy investing in criminal enterprises (Walsh, 2012).
Thus, there is considerable support for the agreed upon figure of 15% fluctuations in the revenue of terrorist organisations, specifically the Taliban.

Revenue of the Pakistani Taliban

For the purpose of this study the revenue of the Taliban would be taken as USD 200 million (Mufti, 2009) though there have been figures going as high as USD 500 million and as low as USD 100 million, it seems to hold the average from USD 200 Billion of narcotics trade with respect to the region (Ansar, work in progress, 2013).

Data and results
Number of terrorist attacks and death toll in Pakistan by year (accessed from Wikipedia and other news sources online)
216 in 2012 (cost = USD 2610000)
65 in 2011 (cost = USD 650000)
157 in 2010 (cost = USD 1570000)
139 in 2009 (cost = USD 1390000)
92 in 2008 (cost = USD 920000)


Number of terrorist attacks 2008-12

Running of TTP




With an average of running cost of USD = 160 million accounting for the projected 8 departmental divisions (which includes reinvestments) the Taliban have USD= 40 million to fight the Pakistan military and execute attacks in Pakistani soil. The total cost of operations in 2008-12 comes to USD= 7140000 (7.1 million), the average per annum to USD = 1428000 (1.4 million). This leaves the organisation a comfortable capital to shift around, counter a near-conventional battle against the Paksitani military and even invest in recruitment projects or expansion.

Implications
The figures are surprisingly high but help to explain the success that the Taliban have enjoyed so far. Even if the figures are not accurate, even by the authors own accounts, they are based on real figures and the actual picture is not far from this one. Even if the figures are above the actual figures (though the author chose the lowest figures available for revenue and highest for spending) it does lend support to the original research questions that the study poses.
There cannot denying that there might be a ‘foreign hand’ amongst the terrorist organisations, however, it is possible that there is a closed-economy which can sustain the workings of the Taliban, which is used as the focus of this study. It is entirely possible that this similar networking allows an independent and free strategy of the terrorist organisations.
The implications for the counterinsurgency programmes of Pakistan are very clear: the military must put pressure on the insurgents but as this is a war of attrition and the sole military pressure has been unable to cut off the economic backbone of the insurgents their capabilities to strike against Pakistan is not compromised. This explains why they are able to strike back again and again despite military pressure on them.
Secondly, the civilian government needs to increase its tax net due to the hidden aspect of the money transfer that spills into Pakistan (Jamwal, 2003). Furthermore, Pakistan needs to curb on the administration free parts of the country to get a tab on the economic activity there for the accountability of the financial movement there which can also help in intelligence crackdowns. Thirdly, the stumping of the criminal organisations which have political backing and connections needs to heavily and vehemently put down as ‘every soldier’s blood has the black money from every gang who operates in Pakistan’ Brig. Shahid (personal communication, 2013). This will be difficult as the political culture in Pakistan has a certain interest in maintaining a relatively free tax and law and order hold in the country (Philip, 2005).
The way forward is to work within Pakistan and that too in terms of civics rather than a total military operation. Military operations tend to lag when the civics is also laden onto them (Nawaz, 2010) therefore the civilian government needs to improve the law and order situation country-wise not just in the affected areas for a successful blow against the Taliban and terrorists.

References

Afsar, S., Samples, C., & Wood, T. (2008). The Taliban: An Organizational Analysis: DTIC Document.
Ansari, A. (2013). Billing for terror: estimating the cost of terrorist operations. University of Karachi. Karachi.
Clarida, R., Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (2001). Optimal monetary policy in closed versus open economies: An integrated approach: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Dalyan, Ş. (2008). Combating the Financing of Terrorism: Rethinking Strategies for Success. Defence Against Terrorism Review, 1(1), 137-153.
Harrison, D. A., Price, K. H., Gavin, J. H., & Florey, A. T. (2002). Time, teams, and task performance: Changing effects of surface-and deep-level diversity on group functioning. Academy of management journal, 45(5), 1029-1045.
Jamwal, N. (2002). Hawala‐the invisible financing system of terrorism. Strategic Analysis, 26(2), 181-198.
Mufti, S. (2009). Funding the Pakistani Taliban, GlobalPost.
Napoleoni, L. (2005). Terror incorporated: tracing the dollars behind the terror networks: Seven Stories Press New York.
Narula, R. (2002). Multinational investment and economic structure: Globalisation and competitiveness: Routledge.
Nawaz, S., & de Borchgrave, A. (2009). FATA—a most dangerous place. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Philip, C. S. The Idea of Pakistan, 2005, Lahore: Vanguard Books.
Reese, J. (2009). Financing the Taliban: The Convergence of Ungoverned Territory and Unofficial Economy. Michigan State University.
Sanderson, T. M. (2004). Transnational terror and organized crime: blurring the lines. Sais Review, 24(1), 49-61.
Shahid, M. (2013). [A conversation about the insurgents].
. Terrorist Financing. (2008). France: FATF GAFI.
Vlachos, D., Georgiadis, P., & Iakovou, E. (2007). A system dynamics model for dynamic capacity planning of remanufacturing in closed-loop supply chains. Computers & Operations Research, 34(2), 367-394.
Walsh, D. (2012). Taliban Gaining More Resources From Kidnapping, The New York Times.

An original piece I have been flirting with for a while, please read and critique
@Capt.Popeye @Marshmallow @Alpha1 @Armstrong @Aeronaut @Kirat @Secur @Dillinger please tag others as well

i think this article is going to become a tool for zarvan
he might be able to win more supporters by showing them that pakistanis like the taliban and in fact do help them.


we should just keep blaming foreigners for creating and funding the taliban because only that will unite pakistani against the ttp!
we should refrain from articles like this.
writing stuff like this means we accept talibans as "angry pakistanis just fighting for their rights!"
weather other countries fund the taliban or not i think our public needs to think that they are being funded by foreigners so they will see them as "mercenaries" and "traitors" and we will be united against this cancer.

 

[CENTCOM]

The first concern should be to choke out the funding sources for these terrorists organizations. Once that is done, half the battle is won. We support the efforts of Pakistani agencies in focusing on the terrorists organizations’ funding sources and trying to shut them down. No one can deny that the people of the region are sick of terrorism and have rejected them in polls after polls. The terrorists know this as well. It is that time when we all need to work together and choke the terrorists from all sides. The people of the region have suffered enough. They deserve the peace they have longed for.


Abdul Quddus
DET- United States Central Command
www.centcom.mil/ur

 

[M. Sarmad]

@Azlan Haider @Alpha1 @Jazzbot this was the article.

A very well researched article indeed !! keep it up bro


And look at their criminal brethren in Afghanistan (The "Good Taliban") begging for financial aid from muslims in the name of religion portraying themselves as "miskeen" , on their website :


The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Financial commission
To begin with, I hope you have best of both worlds. May Allah grant you success here and the Hereafter!

As is known to all, The Islamic country of Afghanistan is currently under the US occupation.

The West invaded Afghanistan to prevent Islamic stability, wipe out the nation’s Islamic and religious values and norms, and to divert the future generation from Islam and to forever subjugate, occupy and secularize Afghan Mujahid nation.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, a movement made up of true and loyal sons of this soil, with the help of Allah Almighty and backed by its nation, has declared Jihad in accordance with Quranic commands and teachings against infidel invaders which has been successfully continuing so far this day, Alhamdulillah (praise be to Allah) and is about to reach its victorious finality.

This Islamic land is in the tyrannical grip of the combative infidel enemy, posing the greatest threat to the entire Muslim world.

As a result, in the light of Islamic sharia, all Muslims everywhere are duty-bound to join the Jihad with money and soul.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which stood up with Muslim Ummah’s physical and financial support, are still waging legitimate Jihad single-handedly with mere help from common sincere Islam-loving masses and is in dire need of financial assistance from the Muslim brothers worldwide for its military and non-military expenditures.

What may come as surprise, well worthy of mention, is the fact that the Jews and Christians in order to prolong and win the prevailing war on the ground, keep raising and collecting funds from their people in every corner of the world and calling on meetings and conferences for the very purpose.

Similarly, the Muslims, too, out of their true spirit of faith are not to forget their Muslim brothers defending and upholding the truth in Afghanistan and extend a helping hand in the form financial aid in the same way as they take part in Jihad physically.

However, what if you were not prepared to fight in the way of Allah, either financially or in soul ? Prophet (sallallu alaihe wa salaam) says in Sahi Muslim "One who died but did not fight in the way of Allah nor did he express any desire or determination for Jihad died the death of a hypocrite."

Thus, save yourself from a greater hardship in the Hereafter and protect yourself against hellfire.

There is no life worth living except the life of the Hereafter and our hereafter depends on our present.

Let us save up for our Hereafter by doing our share of Jihad responding to the call of Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and offer our monetary aid and donation to the financial officials of the Islamic Emirate so that it may be used to meet the requirements of the Jihad and Mujahideen fighting the invading forces on the ground in appropriate ways.

In case of any contributions,please contact the financial commission of Afghanistan on the following Email address.

The financial commission

of the Islamic emirate of Afghanistan

Financecm.iea@gmail.com
0093772784374

0093798098813

...

 

[Zarvan]

Just answer me a simple question , go read the history of Pakistan from any source and then tell me " Why , just why , in the history of this country , have Islamist and their political parties failed to form Federal Government and except for some instances , even the Provincial Governments forming the coalition or piggybacking on the same seculars/liberals they despise or taking the help and assistance of military if indeed the Pakistanis so much want the Islamic system/laws or Sharia as per your lot's common thinking pattern ?

Yes people vote for different political parties and that is how the votes get divided , the majority forms the Govt . You do know what democracy is , right , or you still want some " chosen elders " to decide our rulers ? That , where the pious and infallible elders would come and how will people agree with their decision , of course is another debate .

yes I do read history and I know what happened Mr sooner or later shariah will get implemented either through peaceful revolution or through blood bath but it will happen

 

[Secur]

yes I do read history and I know what happened Mr sooner or later shariah will get implemented either through peaceful revolution or through blood bath but it will happen

I guess the word , you are looking for is " imposed " not implemented because the population of Pakistan have rejected from time to time , the Islamic political parties and their " system " . You want blood bath ? Haven't your friends killed enough Pakistanis to seek more ?

And look at their criminal brethren in Afghanistan (The "Good Taliban") begging for financial aid from muslims in the name of religion portraying themselves as "miskeen" , on their website :

Well , this is their religion . Let there not be a shadow of doubt that there exist any such thing as " good Taliban " , fighting against oppressors and thus different from their Pakistani counterparts . They all are the same breed , religious psycopaths willing to kill/murder/maim/harass people just for their rigid , barbaric and inflexible version of " Sharia " implementation which isn't compatible with the world of today . The reason my dear countrymen are in such a mess is because they differentiate and keep soft corners for these terrorists because of Islam , nothing else .