Dr Abdullah is the only man who can understand this and we hope would appreciate what lies ahead for Afghanistan if it chooses to cooperate with SinoPak channel instead of India. It would bring mass Chinese investment which India is simply incapable of bringing and would help build Afghanistan into a 'sustainable' military power which is able to hold its state together.
I hope it clears up a few things.
Nice overview, I again appreciate it. It will be interesting to see how it'll all unfold.
Afghanistan absolutely wants a positive relationship with China as well as Pakistan, although I can't share your optimism with the potential for estrangement with both India and the United States dangling over Dr Abdullah’s head, with both being stronger nations in a growing alliance in our region. There's good reason behind the current conflicts and political posturing that surrounds China, including in places like Thailand, Vietnam, the Koreas, Japan and even Mongolia. The United States is arguably engaged in China’s political encirclement to guarantee her own status as the world leader for another century. Dr Abdullah for his part owes his political relevance to both India and especially to the United States. So how can you seriously believe he'll take on board your wish-list in its entirety? Anything's possible to be sure, although I doubt it, for he'd have to place a lot of trust in Pakistan, just as his mentor once did as a young man in the 1970's, or Gulbudeen did, or even the Taliban for that matter. Why would any Afghan trust a Pakistan now reaching out from a position of relative weakness? Then off course there’s Iran and the very real possibility that she’s coming back from the cold in a strategic alliance with the United States. If Dr Abdullah pisses Iran off, then there goes the Hazara support for him at the next elections. Better still, there goes the Indian-Iran-Afghan trade corridor that bypasses our dependency on Pakistani routes.
If however Dr Abdullah does indeed take on board the wish list as presented while potentially alienating himself from the US and India (with Iran as the added possibility), he'll risk ending up facing the same kind of insurgency currently experience by Maliki in Iraq. Let's face it, the ISIS is supported by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, plus potentially Turkey which had an axe to grind against Syria for its own support for Kurdish separatists in Turkey over the years. The United States government is publicly throwing dirt at ISIS, although they were the ones who simultaneously delivered one of the largest stockpiles of weapons to the Gulf States recently. Let's also not forget that the US has been heavily criticised by Maliki for having "dragged its feet" in the delivery of heavy arms shipments to his military. It’s possible that the United States will help him stop ISIS from taking over Baghdad to appease Iran, but the devils in the detail, so we’ll see. I think that unless both the Americans and Indians are on board, I can’t see Dr Abdullah or Dr Ghani for that matter as the partners you seek. Then again, it’s not a zero-sum game, as all negotiations will have their gives and their takes.
I will however tell you this much….the same United States that is currently taking back the bulk of her armed forces, will be back with a vengeance tomorrow if deemed necessary. They’ll have an indefinite engagement in Afghanistan for many years to come and we actually like it that way.
