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Taiwan’s Ex-President: Regards China-Taiwan war: “First war is the same as the final war”

First of all, just to make sure people know that I think it is of stupidity to the maximum degree that Taiwanese want Taiwan Independence even if they have the chance.


In 2018, most TIers were completely demoralized. Some of my relatives are even contemplating start to work in China to get ready for the eventual unification. But the trade war in the last 2 years had completely changed their perception. And it is not just the trade war with USA, it is also that China allows Hongkongers to brutalize Chinese in Hong Kong for a whole year, it allows Tsi Ing-Wen’s provocation for 5 years, it allows Australia’s provocation for 2 years.


By the way, for pretty much vast majority of Taiwanese I know, either pro-unification or pro-independence, all of them think Xi is a coward. (I not saying I feel the same way.)


On the other hand, you have Donald Trump, who is an idiot, a bully and a gambler. But he is also a bully who had force Xi to sign an unequal treaty.


The whole point is TIers think Donald Trump has the perfect personality to be manipulated.


Most of TIers I know think this has to be heaven’s will to have those two leaders (Trump and Xi) with those distinct type of personality be the leader of USA and China at this time.
People in Taiwan are stupid because the local media reports on other countries' provocations against China but censors out China's retaliations. For example, Taiwanese people have no idea that China arrested all the Hong Kong independence figures like Jimmy Lai. The Taiwanese media won't report any of that.

Consequently, Taiwanese behave just like Hong Kong separatists before they were smashed by China this year. The Taiwan separatists think they are about to make history. It's a family event. They bring out the kids to celebrate with food and drinks.

I don't think the first wave will be an invasion. The first war will not be the final war. The first wave will be an air and missile attack knocking out Taiwan's military and maybe political targets.
 
China’s global times just announced China will conduct major military exercise around Taiwan in the coming days in response to USA-Taiwan rapprochement.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1197636.shtml


At this time, about 5 hours after the news come out, the major portals in China (like sina, netease, qq, etc.) hardly talked about it.


Within Taiwan, news stations break into two camps, pro-unification and pro-Taiwan Independence.


The pro-Unification newspaper just reports this story without any commentary.

https://udn.com/news/story/7331/4778903


The Pro-TI newspaper, on the other hands, are super excited and already has 7 or 8 stories out already.

The first story pretty much report the news:

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews

The following story talks about some China generals are mad at Xi Jinping for challenging USA.

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews

The following story talks about that mainland Chinese internet user are super excited about this news.

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews

The following story talks about why Taiwanese are not afraid of China invading. No, I am not going to translate them; it will blow your blood vessels.

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews

The following story talked about why in some cases, Taiwan’s defenses can only last 24 hours (many days before USA’s military can arrive).

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews

The following story talks about that USA’s carrier fleets are already here next to Taiwan already.

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews

The final story talks about that USA had awakened from China’s challenge. It also talked about what Taiwan need to do.

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews


Note, the last article talked about so far in relation between USA and Taiwan, USA is the chess player and Taiwan is the chess piece. But in the future, Taiwan can be the chess player.


Just want to report how TIers are feeling right now. They are very excited about this news. They have no doubt who the real chess player is and who are the chess pieces.
 
China’s global times just announced China will conduct major military exercise around Taiwan in the coming days in response to USA-Taiwan rapprochement.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1197636.shtml


At this time, about 5 hours after the news come out, the major portals in China (like sina, netease, qq, etc.) hardly talked about it.


Within Taiwan, news stations break into two camps, pro-unification and pro-Taiwan Independence.


The pro-Unification newspaper just reports this story without any commentary.

https://udn.com/news/story/7331/4778903


The Pro-TI newspaper, on the other hands, are super excited and already has 7 or 8 stories out already.

The first story pretty much report the news:

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews

The following story talks about some China generals are mad at Xi Jinping for challenging USA.

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews

The following story talks about that mainland Chinese internet user are super excited about this news.

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews

The following story talks about why Taiwanese are not afraid of China invading. No, I am not going to translate them; it will blow your blood vessels.

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews

The following story talked about why in some cases, Taiwan’s defenses can only last 24 hours (many days before USA’s military can arrive).

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews

The following story talks about that USA’s carrier fleets are already here next to Taiwan already.

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews

The final story talks about that USA had awakened from China’s challenge. It also talked about what Taiwan need to do.

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?News...m&utm_medium=viewall&utm_campaign=viewallnews


Note, the last article talked about so far in relation between USA and Taiwan, USA is the chess player and Taiwan is the chess piece. But in the future, Taiwan can be the chess player.


Just want to report how TIers are feeling right now. They are very excited about this news. They have no doubt who the real chess player is and who are the chess pieces.
https://china.huanqiu.com/article/3zS0yquSOsf

东部战区多军种多方向成体系出动兵力,在台湾海峡及南北两端连续组织实战化演练

东部战区新闻发言人张春晖空军大校称,近日,中国人民解放军东部战区多军种多方向成体系出动兵力,在台湾海峡及南北两端连续组织实战化演练,进一步检验提升多军种联合作战能力。

近来,个别大国在涉台问题上消极动向不断,向“台独”势力发出严重错误信号,严重威胁台海地区和平与稳定。台湾是中国领土神圣不可分割的一部分,战区部队组织的巡逻和训练活动,是针对当前台海安全形势和维护国家主权需要采取的必要行动。战区部队将时刻保持高度戒备,采取一切必要措施,坚决回击一切制造“台独”、分裂国家的挑衅行为,坚决捍卫国家主权和领土完整。

I called it already last week:

The American health secretary Alex Azar will visit Taiwan this month. China will conduct massive dual aircraft carrier battlegroup exercises on the eastern coast of Taiwan in response.

It looks like USA is about to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan very soon. Probably before the November election. Secretary of State Pompeo will go to Taiwan to establish diplomatic relations. Then China will launch air and missile strikes directly on Taiwan targets.

List of China's enemies and their spanking:

Xinjiang separatists -- defeated in 2017 using reeducation camps

Hong Kong separatists -- defeated in 2020 using mass arrests

Taiwan separatists -- to be defeated in late 2020 using air and missile strikes

Philippines -- defeated in 2020 after Scarborough Shoal navy exercises

Vietnam -- defeated in 2020 after oil companies abandoned exploration

Malaysia -- defeated in 2020 after oil companies abandoned exploration

India -- defeated in 2020 after Galway Valley clash

USA -- mortally wounded by coronavirus, dollar hegemony weakened in 2020

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1197636.shtml

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command recently systematically sent troops from multiple military branches into multiple directions and organized consecutive, realistic drills in the Taiwan Straits and its northern and southern ends, the command announced on Thursday.

The drills further tested and improved the troops' joint combat capability, said Senior Colonel Zhang Chunhui, the spokesperson of the PLA Eastern Theater Command.

Recently, "a certain major country" has been continuously making negative moves on the Taiwan question, which has sent seriously wrong signals to "Taiwan independence" forces and severely threatened peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits, Zhang said.

Taiwan is a sacred and inalienable part of Chinese territory, and the patrol and exercise activities by the PLA are necessary operations aimed at the current security situation in the region and safeguarding national sovereignty, the spokesperson stressed.

The troops will always be on high alert, take any necessary measures, resolutely counter any provocative actions that could result in "Taiwan independence" and separate the country, and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, Zhang said.


https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200813003159-260417?chdtv

PLA deploys strategic bomber to the Spratly Islands bases!

20200813003276.png



https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...ent-signals-stronger-security-ties-us-counter

Taiwanese president signals stronger security ties with US to counter Beijing
  • Tsai Ing-wen says island will seek a ‘constructive security relationship’ with the US
  • Tsai calls on Beijing to recognise Taiwan as a self-governing, fully functional democracy
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has stressed the need for “like-minded democracies” such as the United States to help safeguard the island’s security as she urged Beijing to recognise Taiwan as a self-governed democracy.

In a virtual address to the Washington-based Hudson Institute on Wednesday, Tsai said the top priority for her second term was to bolster the island’s military defences, including seeking a “constructive security relationship” with the US.

“Our 23 million people have the right to determine our own futures, which is [the] antithesis to the position Beijing has taken,” she said. “Upholding these principles requires us to be able to defend Taiwan against coercive actions. It entails backing up words with actions.”
 
Right now, to get the most up to date news regards to China's military exercise, you have to get it from the most pro-TI newspapers because it gets TIers very excited.

https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?NewsID=796788

According to the above article, the exercise is going to be from 8/14 to 8/15 outside Baisha Island (白沙岛), city of Taizhou (in 浙江), China.

2717804-PH.jpg
 
China announces five escalation steps to Taiwan attack!

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1674902783438456833&wfr=spider&for=pc

解放军可以继续施加的军事压力还有很多,包括军机绕岛飞行,过“海峡中线”,直至飞越台湾岛上空,弹道导弹试射飞越台湾岛上空,以及在台湾东部海域开展军事演习等等,直到台湾被战争随时可能爆发的危急气氛完全笼罩。

要一个和平发展的台湾,还是要一个两岸严重军事对峙、直到最后战争只差一个火星子就可能点燃的台湾,这要由台当局做出选择。过去是台海演习,今天是台海加南北两端演习,明天台湾再往前走,就是海峡加两端加台湾岛东部的环岛大演习,再接下来是解放军战机出现在台岛上空的演习,局势走到哪一步,球在台当局一边。

东部战区的这次演习显示,解放军有能力从台海的各个方向发起总攻,这是短时间、以小时计拿下台湾岛的战略态势。民进党当局需要保持最后的理性,他们要知道,做美国战略的棋子,是最容易被“吃掉”的。当他们忘乎所以的时候,那一天有可能突然到来。悠着点吧。

Step 0 (today): north south Taiwan straits multi-direction live fire exercises.

Step 1: east coast of Taiwan multi-direction live fire exercises.

Step 2: multi-direction live fire exercises and ballistic missile crossing Taiwan airspace.

Step 3: multi-direction live fire exercises and PLAAF fighter jets crossing Taiwan airspace.

Step 4: amphibious attack on Taiwan and occupation with hours.

I expect we will see the remaining 4 steps before end of 2020.
 
PLA’s ‘unprecedented drills’ in Taiwan Straits for deterrence, actual combat: observers

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1197716.shtml

The Chinese mainland openly warned Taiwan secessionists by conducting massive military drills in the Taiwan Straits on Thursday. Chinese experts said this is a clear and unprecedented deterrence toward secessionists of the island as well as the US, as the Trump administration has increased its links with the Taiwan secessionist authority, and the possibility of peaceful reunification is decreasing sharply.

Analysts on Taiwan affairs and national defense from the mainland said the drills are not just to deter the provocative and dangerous connections between the island and the US, but also to train the forces for massive military operations. If the Taiwan secessionists and the US cross the bottom line set by the mainland's Anti-Secession Law, the mainland needs to take actions to solve the problem immediately.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command recently sent troops from multiple military branches and organized consecutive, realistic drills in the Taiwan Straits and its northern and southern ends, the command said on Thursday.

The drills further tested and improved the PLA troops' joint combat capability, said Senior Colonel Zhang Chunhui, spokesperson of the PLA Eastern Theater Command.

Recently, "a certain major power" has been continuously making negative moves on the Taiwan question, which has sent seriously wrong signals to "Taiwan independence" forces, and severely threatened the peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits, he said.

The mainland experts said the drills are a resolute response to the US and Taiwan secessionists. The PLA seldom makes public the aim of its exercises, and by announcing the aim this time being "a certain major power," which almost directly points at the United States and "Taiwan independence" forces, it is sending a very clear, direct and strong warning to the US and Taiwan secessionists.

According to the spokesperson's statement, the drills covered large areas of the Taiwan Straits, and featured many military branches in a joint operation. This means the drills must be of a large scale and could have involved warplanes, warships, amphibious troops, artillery and missiles, observers noted.

A Chinese mainland military expert told the Global Times on Thursday on condition of anonymity that the drills showed the PLA can launch attacks on Taiwan secessionists from any direction of the Taiwan Straits. And unlike some predictions from the US and the island that the PLA will only concentrate on striking a few key strategic locations on the island, if and when the operation is launched, all places in the region will become battlefields.

Chinese mainland military expert Song Zhongping told the Global Times on Thursday that the most important task for the drill is to enhance and normalize military drills around the island of Taiwan.

The PLA drills are not staged only to deter the secessionists on the island, but to train the troops and gain the capability to turn the exercises into real military actions when necessary, Song said.

Xu Guangyu, a senior adviser to the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, told the Global Times on Monday that if the US and Taiwan secessionists go further, the PLA could take more countermeasures, including live-fire missile drills east of Taiwan island and near Guam. Some Chinese mainland military observers also suggested the PLA can send warplanes through the airspace of the island.

'First battle, last battle'

The Taiwan separatist authority is still adding its defense budget for next year, but observers said the overwhelming military advantage of the PLA is unshakeable, and increasing the island's defense budget would only waist taxpayers' money and make Taiwan a "cash machine" for the US defense industry, as well as arms dealers or lobby groups in Taipei and Washington.

Taiwan media reported that Taiwan's defense spending next year is set to rise 10.2 percent compared to this year. The regional leader of the island Tsai Ing-wen's cabinet on Thursday proposed NT$453.4 billion ($15.42 billion) in military spending for the year starting in January 2021, versus 411.3 billion for 2020, the island authority said in a statement.

Zhao Lijian, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said at a routine press conference on Thursday that the island is "a tiny region," and no matter how much money the separatist authority would spend for defense against the reunification with the mainland, it would be ridiculous, just like "ants trying to shake a big tree."

Former leader of Taiwan region Ma Ying-jeou Ma Ying-jeou said on Mondayat a speech that if the Chinese mainland decides to reunify the island by force, "the first battle is the last battle," and the US military will not come to the island's rescue, and that there won't be time for the US to come either, Taiwan media reported.

Ma's statement reflects the mainland's and island's comprehensive military strengths, as the PLA can destroy almost all of Taiwan's forces without letting them leave the ground or harbor in just the first battle, Song said, noting that this will leave no time for the US military to help the Taiwan secessionists. And even the US military does come, it will suffer asymmetrical disadvantages, which favor the PLA near the Chinese mainland's coastal waters.

A Beijing-based Taiwan affairs expert who requested anonymity told the Global Times that many secessionists on the island are trying to downplay the mainland's determination to reunify the island, as they believe the military deterrence from the mainland has existed for decades. They said the mainland dares not take real action, and "with worsening China-US ties, many of them doubt that the mainland would attack, and even believe the US will let American soldiers fight and die for Taiwan separatism."

That's why the Taiwan authority is getting more and more hostile to not only the mainland government but also the mainland people, and so the PLA needs to make new moves to increase the deterrence to make the warning effective; otherwise, the consequences would be serious, he noted.

"Ma is also a senior member and former chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT), so he and the KMT are worried that Tsai and the separatist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authority would underestimate the mainland's determination. But the DPP is unlikely to listen to him," the expert said.

During US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar's Taiwan visit from Sunday to Wednesday, the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier was lurking near the island of Taiwan, according to publicly available reports. Experts said the US aircraft carrier's movement did not affect the PLA's drills at all, and any country who dares to touch China's territory will meet military strikes. :lol::lol::lol:

The island of Taiwan is reportedly in discussions with the US over the purchase of cruise missiles and sea mines, and claimed they will potentially be deployed as coastal defense and amphibious landing deterrence. The intention to purchase these weapons only emphasized Taiwan's outdated war concepts and military technologies, and their potential deployment can be easily countered by the PLA, Chinese mainland experts said on Thursday.
 
A Taiwanese major just caught spying for China. See the following link:

https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200812007212-260402?chdtv

The detailed plan and operating procedure for the most recent yearly major military exercise in Taiwan were photographed by a Taiwanese major and he planned to sent to China. It was intercepted and the major was caught.

I just want to say that there are a lot of good will within Taiwanese military toward China. I personally preferred the unification can be done peacefully. But if force has to be used, make it overwhelming and surprising because I have a feeling it may be quick and painless.

Again, I highly prefer peaceful unification. But if force has to be used, the best to minimize casualties on all sides is one strike and done.
 
China is heavy-handed and probably best not standing in their way or face complete annihilation
 
China is heavy-handed and probably best not standing in their way or face complete annihilation

Taiwan stock market (TWSE) went up by 0.25% yesterday. Everyone I talked to in Taiwan say it is to be expected. The military exercise is just a reaction to American Health secretary's visit. Nobody think Xi will actual start a war.

The only way TIer will be afraid is when Xi stands up to Donald Trump.

Average Taiwanese are paying a lot more attention to the trade negotiation between China and USA this weekend than the military exercises all around Taiwan. If Xi stands up to Trump, it will put the fear of god to TIers. Otherwise, no amount of exercise will do anything.
 
Taiwan stock market (TWSE) went up by 0.25% yesterday. Everyone I talked to in Taiwan say it is to be expected. The military exercise is just a reaction to American Health secretary's visit. Nobody think Xi will actual start a war.

The only way TIer will be afraid is when Xi stands up to Donald Trump.

Average Taiwanese are paying a lot more attention to the trade negotiation between China and USA this weekend than the military exercises all around Taiwan. If Xi stands up to Trump, it will put the fear of god to TIers. Otherwise, no amount of exercise will do anything.
 
Taiwan stock market (TWSE) went up by 0.25% yesterday. Everyone I talked to in Taiwan say it is to be expected. The military exercise is just a reaction to American Health secretary's visit. Nobody think Xi will actual start a war.

The only way TIer will be afraid is when Xi stands up to Donald Trump.

Average Taiwanese are paying a lot more attention to the trade negotiation between China and USA this weekend than the military exercises all around Taiwan. If Xi stands up to Trump, it will put the fear of god to TIers. Otherwise, no amount of exercise will do anything.
Taiwan independence media censor Chinese moves (such as military exercises) and depict anti-China schemes as achieved when they are merely wishful thinking.

Taiwanese people don't know there is a National Security Law in Hong Kong and mass arrests have been made.

Nothing will change Taiwan independence momentum until either either Taiwan military or civilians die in significant numbers.
 
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Taiwan just reported that Taiwan will buy 60 F-16 for $62B. The story is in Chinese.

https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200815000949-260408?ctrack=pc_main_headl_p01&chdtv

What does average Taiwanese think?

Absolutely nothing. Just like the exercise conducted by China, this news won't raise barely a ripple in Taiwan. Average Taiwanese have no interest in actual fighting for Taiwan and they consider arm purchase as paying protection money to USA.

The only thing average Taiwanese would think is that USA is surely charging more and more for the protection money.
 
It is stupid to want a war, not because you can't win, but Taiwan will definitely become ruin like cities in Syria. If they lose, Taiwan will become a part of China, but if they win, all business will run away, and Taiwan will left with nothing.

Taiwan people with the slave mindsets think they will represent the west to manage China after the West defeat China.
 
Taiwan people with the slave mindsets think they will represent the west to manage China after the West defeat China.

I think is just about distrust to your Government, and how good is American propaganda to demonize CCP.
 
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