Taiwan Armed Forces

[Aepsilons]

Amphibious exercises near Taichung,

---

Coordinated Air-Amphibious exercise,

 

[jhungary]

Actually infrastructure you pointed out is not what would be targeted. Shore batteries and runways, weapon depots and areas where tanks, transports, and other military related targets will be neutralised. With superior long range weapons you neutralise any major threats before your first boots land.
The main objective would be to target most air force targets to achieve air superiority before the first plane can fly. For that runways as well as planes would be targeted in a concentrated effort to reduce any air defence capabilities.
Also special forces and tactical strikes will follow long range missile strikes, further crippling the defensive abilities of Taiwan.
This part of the discussion you have clearly ignored in your analysis, and akin to the American invasions the lesson learnt is long range weapons can cripple armies before the first boot lands. And with the relatively short distance between the Mainland and Taiwan not much reaction time to do anything once things start. And troops landings can even be by sea and air because of the relatively short distance between the two.
I am in no way saying there should be war, but one should be realistic in their analysis.

lol, no. I did not discount your point, in fact, I have specified why Airport (Runway) and seaport cannot be destroy in Taiwan before an invasion.

Without both, you would have difficult to unload resupply and troop in large scale and those asset should not be destroyed in any cost. In D-Day in 1944, the allied failure to capture Cherbourg in the first 7 days almost doomed the whole operation. Let alone destroying it.

Problem is, any infrastructure (from road junction, airfield, sea port to gas station) are vital for the invasion force as well, you can try and take time and cheery pick only combat asset (Such as warship, SAM site and Fighter) but *** I said, first of all, China did not have enough fighter to pressure Taiwan 24/7, which will dilute the Chinese Air Asset and Missile can only hit hard target not combat asset (Fighter/SAM are mobile). There will not be an air superiority.

You cannot use US invasion in Iraq and even Vietnam as an example as those are non-peer enemy, which the enemy cannot go pound to pound with the American military. but Taiwan and China are peer enemy, there will be contest, and things cannot be won as easy as you said. A better example is Yom Kippur War when Israeli Air force which was more modern and superior in number than Egyptian was defeated by carefully planed Egyptian Anti-air umbrella

Second thing is, even Taiwan is at a short distant of China, they still have to cross the channel. And for that to happen they will need to bring Transport Asset into the equation, and that's where the Taiwanese will hurt the Chinese

What you are thinking is, Taiwan and simply engage Chinese warship and sunk by Chinese Superior number, in reality, the Taiwanese would simply by-pass/avoid the warship and fighter plane and aim their anti-ship/anti-air missile on Transport ship and plane. You can bomb the coast to smithereens but at the end of the day, you need troop to cover the ground, and in the case if Taiwan simply just target those transport asset, China will not have enough to fight in Taiwan.

As with another poster here, you are thinking what you want to do and assume you can do it without considering the enemy response. You ignore the hardest part of the equation, how you get the Taiwanese to follow your suit by chasing your warship and fighter? Cause you expecting they do, but in reality, they don't need to.

 

[gambit]

It seems so. Btw, on to topic, what's your view on the possibility of a Taiwan-Japan-US Security Pact?

Possibility ? Of course, anything is possible. But probability ? Not likely.

When there was a Soviet Union, the Soviet-China ideological -- if not political -- alliance in Asia was the common threat to all. Any Taiwan-China specifics problems were subordinate to the greater intent of spreading communism throughout Asia.

It is much different now. While the Taiwanese do seems to have a distinct cultural identity, they are closer to China than to Japan, even though Japan did impart her own cultural values to the islanders during occupation from late 19th century to end of WW II. With the Soviet Union gone, Marxism-Communism discredited and can no longer serve as ideological attractant, not even among the Chinese themselves, China is free to bring up those Taiwan-China specifics issues and because those issues are unique to the Chinese and the Taiwanese, there is little, more like none, reasons for Japan to militarily defend Taiwan, which would be the foundation of such an alliance in the first place. The China-Japan specific issues would be what happened in WW II with China as the victim. Taiwan have nothing to do with this.

Both Japan and Taiwan must have a tete-a-tete to find common grounds other than 'China is a threat' in order to justify and convince themselves that spilling blood for each other is morally worthwhile.

For that runways as well as planes would be targeted in a concentrated effort to reduce any air defence capabilities.

Take a look at this...

The above is the typical non-precision bombing result of any runway denial operation against an enemy airfield. It was much much much worse back in WW II. Worse as in non-precision. On many missions, bomb craters were all over the place with the runways barely hit.

The yellow strip is how much the defender need -- or need to repair -- in order launch its own aircrafts, even if just one jet at a time, which is better than none. In launching of intercept fighters or post runway repair launch of retaliatory strikes, the RoCAF fighters will not be burdened with bombs but with all missiles, making that yellow strip even more important. These fighters will be light, maybe not even with external wing tanks but only one centerline external fuel tank, and all missiles on other hardpoints. Further, the RoCAF can operate from highways.

So either the PLAAF is capable of destroying every runway and highway to the point of no 300-meters length is possible, or the PLAAF will suffer (lose) point two...Air Superiority...

- Air Dominance: The ability of an air force to compel other air forces to re-position themselves into inferior/subordinate postures.

- Air Superiority: The ability of an air force to achieve repeated control of contested airspace and if there are any losses, said losses would not pose any statistical deterrence to that achievement.

- Air Supremacy: He flies, he dies.

The PLAAF will incur losses that will be statistically significant enough that it will not gain reasonably control over Taiwanese airspace. And if the PLAAF cannot gain air superiority over Taiwanese airspace, there will be no invasion of Taiwan.

 

[Aepsilons]

- Air Dominance: The ability of an air force to compel other air forces to re-position themselves into inferior/subordinate postures.

- Air Superiority: The ability of an air force to achieve repeated control of contested airspace and if there are any losses, said losses would not pose any statistical deterrence to that achievement.

- Air Supremacy: He flies, he dies.

The PLAAF will incur losses that will be statistically significant enough that it will not gain reasonably control over Taiwanese airspace. And if the PLAAF cannot gain air superiority over Taiwanese airspace, there will be no invasion of Taiwan.

Poignant. Do you think that the J-20 may prove effective in changing the odds?

 

[XiaoYaoZi]

China does not have the means to blockade Japan. We would eradicate any enemy navy foolish enough to attempt that.

Lol, bro, if you feel you can keep the pace, it must be that something is wrong.

 

[Aepsilons]

@XiaoYaoZi

気にしないで下さい。

 

[Gufi]

The above is the typical non-precision bombing result of any runway denial operation against an enemy airfield. It was much much much worse back in WW II. Worse as in non-precision. On many missions, bomb craters were all over the place with the runways barely hit.

Bombing would not even be something that would be considered at the beginning. I do not know if this is trolling or is there some real issue of comprehension. Less then 200 KM separates the mainland and Taiwan.
A strong missile barrage would take care of most if not all targets Short range cruise and ballistic missiles could and would knock out most defensive positions as well as the air force before any real movement by the PLAAF.

So either the PLAAF is capable of destroying every runway and highway to the point of no 300-meters length is possible, or the PLAAF will suffer (lose) point two...Air Superiority...

- Air Dominance: The ability of an air force to compel other air forces to re-position themselves into inferior/subordinate postures.

- Air Superiority: The ability of an air force to achieve repeated control of contested airspace and if there are any losses, said losses would not pose any statistical deterrence to that achievement.

- Air Supremacy: He flies, he dies.

Please explain to me how you will manage to take off planes and refuel them while arming them at the same time. It will take time and this is not the older wars of WW2 where planes are slow, and the distance to be travelled is very short. I accept the rational of some planes being lost but to not gain air supremacy after an hour of missile barrage on military targets seems impossible. The Air force would have a mopping up job to take out the few planes that did not get destroyed in their hangers.

 

[XiaoYaoZi]

@XiaoYaoZi

気にしないで下さい。

The image of the strength of PLA in your mind stay right before 20 years. It is good for us not good for you.

 

[Carlosa]

While the Taiwanese do seems to have a distinct cultural identity, they are closer to China than to Japan, even though Japan did impart her own cultural values to the islanders during occupation from late 19th century to end of WW II. With the Soviet Union gone, Marxism-Communism discredited and can no longer serve as ideological attractant, not even among the Chinese themselves, China is free to bring up those Taiwan-China specifics issues and because those issues are unique to the Chinese and the Taiwanese, there is little, more like none, reasons for Japan to militarily defend Taiwan, which would be the foundation of such an alliance in the first place.

What you are saying makes sense in general, but the thing is, if the chinese take over Taiwan, they are going for the Japanese Ryukyu islands next without any doubt, they will start the familiar song that the Okinawans are not really Japanese, that they were taken over by force, that they used to belong to China in the past (since they used to pay tribute to China (and Japan) in the past), etc, etc and as you know if something used to ever belonged to China or could possible might looked like it did belonged to China, no matter how briefly, then China feels that it has the right to taken it over again (as they did with Tibet, Xinxiang and Inner Mongolia).

So, in the end, Japan has a vested interest in participating in the defense of Taiwan and make sure that it doesn't fall to the chinese. @Nihonjin1051 makes sense?

So either the PLAAF is capable of destroying every runway and highway to the point of no 300-meters length is possible, or the PLAAF will suffer (lose) point two...Air Superiority...

I would say that's quite unlikely because the Taiwanese have runways inside mountains with multiple disguised entry / exit points. And on top of that, they have the world record of how fast they repair the runways.

 

[IsaacNewton]

I can understand if Taiwan was only independent for say 5 years, or 10 year. But come on, amigo, the mainlanders are just a wee bit unpractical in saying that Taiwan will be forced to be united with Mainland? Taiwan hasn't been part of Mainland since 1894, and even then they didn't really have full control of Taiwan in the first place only in the coastal areas.

Taiwan , in my eyes, is independent, has been independent, and will remain independent. And China will not have the means to seize it by force without drawing in international intervention.

That's a bit oversimplified imo, the distinction between mainlanders and taiwanese.

The KMT were originally from mainland and ruled Taiwan for 70 years now. In 1945, they brought 2 million mainlanders over to an island with 6 million people. If you consider KMT part of mainland, then it is untrue that mainland had no influence over taiwan.

When you speak of the unity of Japanese and Taiwanese in the past, you seem to forget that a good portion of Taiwanese today never had a history of Japanese rule because they were former KMT people who fought a bitter war with Japan.

Another point is, if KMT won the civil war, there will be no Mainland Taiwan distinction.

What is true is CCP never had control over Taiwan, but nonetheless feels entitle to it, as the CCP should absorb all of KMT. Afterall the 2 nations speak the same language, and the two ruling party shares a common history.

 

[Aepsilons]

That's a bit oversimplified imo, the distinction between mainlanders and taiwanese.

The KMT were originally from mainland and ruled Taiwan for 70 years now. In 1945, they brought 2 million mainlanders over to an island with 6 million people. If you consider KMT part of mainland, then it is untrue that mainland had no influence over taiwan.

When you speak of the unity of Japanese and Taiwanese in the past, you seem to forget that a good portion of Taiwanese today never had a history of Japanese rule because they were former KMT people who fought a bitter war with Japan.

Another point is, if KMT won the civil war, there will be no Mainland Taiwan distinction.

What is true is CCP never had control over Taiwan, but nonetheless feels entitle to it, as the CCP should absorb all of KMT. Afterall the 2 nations speak the same language, and the two ruling party shares a common history.

Such an argument , the dichotomy yet the transimilarity between defense apertures of both Taiwan and Mainland China would be akin to the Russian Federation and The Ukraine. Ideally, there are elements within Russia that would wish for the union of Russia, Belarus as well as the whole of Ukraine (prior to the civil war and teh fall of Yanukovich), however we see the internal political dynamics and development within Ukraine that had resisted , finally, the domination of the country vis-a-vis Russian hegemonist designs of the region.

I think it would benefit you to read into that aspect and juxtapose it to the situation in China and Taiwan. Yet contemplate on one categorical and qualitative difference therein --- Taiwan is not a Ukraine that shares a common border with Russia; rather, Taiwan is an island state that has an quasi-impregnable defense grid that has not given up a single inch or territory to PRC military personnel. In fact, they occupy an island so very close to PRC coast. The island is also bristling with anti air, anti ship batteries and is home to the Hsiung Feng I, II, III.

 

[Aepsilons]

Bombing would not even be something that would be considered at the beginning. I do not know if this is trolling or is there some real issue of comprehension. Less then 200 KM separates the mainland and Taiwan.

My friend, that is very true and correct that the PLAAF has the capability to strike Taiwan, but it will not be without casualties on the Mainland as well. The Republic of China Armed Forces (Taiwan) has a forward deployed garrison in the island of Kinmen (Qiamoy), which is literally less than 50 kms from the Provincial Capital of Fujian called Xiamen.

There are a vast multilayered defense grid in Kinmen that includes Hsiung Feng I, II, III as well as an advanced guard of MBTs, anti tanks, and an unspecified number of army troops ( i would estimate probably 2-3 divisions, and probably at least 2-3 battalions of Marine Corp units).

If say hostilities were to initiate, you can trust that ROCAF will wreck havoc on Xiamen, Sui'an, Shima, Datong, Huafeng, Quanzhou, Jijiang. Taking just the island of Kinmen will be a strategic operation for the PLA and would result in immense number of combatant losses too epic to quantify. Even and if they do take that island, they have to also assault the much heavier defended Pescadores (Ma Kung Island Group) , which will enable the ROCAF to prepare for their defense, and enough time for any allies to come to the aid of Taiwan.

This is the reason why Japanese parliament has passed bill so that their army can participate in overseas confrontation with its allies....(Correct me if I am wrong)....Just to give their army an exposure of war....

Japan will include Taiwan in its military umbrella and will now cooperate with Taiwan on defense articulations, one in which Taipei has been insistent in forming with Japan ever since 1972. Even the current President of Taiwan (Ma) , tho is patriotic in regards to the Senkaku Shoto, has been quite vocal to Prime Minister Abe on various accounts -- on forming a quasi defense pact with Taipei in conjunction with a Japanese-Taiwan Special Relations Act, similar to the one Taiwan has with the United States.

Ma has even been more adamant with PM Abe on a Taiwan-Japan Special Relations Act than say Lee Teng Hui, even tho Ma is a KMT party member. Tho i have to say we Japanese value is diplomatic face in regards to the Mainland , we call this 'diplomatic ambiguity'.

 

[jhungary]

Bombing would not even be something that would be considered at the beginning. I do not know if this is trolling or is there some real issue of comprehension. Less then 200 KM separates the mainland and Taiwan.
A strong missile barrage would take care of most if not all targets Short range cruise and ballistic missiles could and would knock out most defensive positions as well as the air force before any real movement by the PLAAF.

Please explain to me how you will manage to take off planes and refuel them while arming them at the same time. It will take time and this is not the older wars of WW2 where planes are slow, and the distance to be travelled is very short. I accept the rational of some planes being lost but to not gain air supremacy after an hour of missile barrage on military targets seems impossible. The Air force would have a mopping up job to take out the few planes that did not get destroyed in their hangers.

Missile is a point to point weapon, you cannot take a runway out with any kind of missile barrage. 1 Missile to 1 target, and you cannot expect to knock out most defensive position as you said before hand, a comprehensive bombing campaign with 2000 pounder or 1000 pounder JDAM is what you need to do the job.

Cruise missile and short range ballistic missile have a small warhead which make them not good at knocking out defence. Put together with almost all defence is not statics Missile actually cannot do much.

 

[Aepsilons]

Missile is a point to point weapon, you cannot take a runway out with any kind of missile barrage. 1 Missile to 1 target, and you cannot expect to knock out most defensive position as you said before hand, a comprehensive bombing campaign with 2000 pounder or 1000 pounder JDAM is what you need to do the job.

Cruise missile and short range ballistic missile have a small warhead which make them not good at knocking out defence. Put together with almost all defence is not statics Missile actually cannot do much.

There will be no direct naval engagement without the PLAN incurring massive losses on her East Sea and South Sea Fleet(s), due to the way Taiwan has an impregnable marine defense between the Kinmen, Pescadores and main Taiwan defense chain. In order to assault Taiwan and overwhelm this so called marine defense, it would require the full mobilization of the PLAN's 3 fleets. Think about it. Do you really think they will mobilize all three fleets to assault Taiwan and expose their vast coastline?

To do so would place their coastal areas at the mercy of the JMSDF.

Wow...Taiwan has an army base so close to China (i.e., Kinmen )...Well these guys have real balls...

Dude, that island (Kinmen) is bristling with anti ship, anti air batteries. lol.

They are no joke, and I'm being serious.

 

[jhungary]

There will be no direct naval engagement without the PLAN incurring massive losses on her East Sea and South Sea Fleet(s), due to the way Taiwan has an impregnable marine defense between the Kinmen, Pescadores and main Taiwan defense chain. In order to assault Taiwan and overwhelm this so called marine defense, it would require the full mobilization of the PLAN's 3 fleets. Think about it. Do you really think they will mobilize all three fleets to assault Taiwan and expose their vast coastline?

To do so would place their coastal areas at the mercy of the JMSDF.



Dude, that island (Kinmen) is bristling with anti ship, anti air batteries. lol.

They are no joke, and I'm being serious.

Problem is, people here over simplified war, and think war is just a few people involve lobbing missile at each other.

Well, even in Iraq and Afghanistan, missile does not stop 4000 of our troop died fighting a supposedly "Raghead" enemy who most people would think "Why do we need to kill them if they just blown themselves up?" And that is a war with US AND ITS ALLIED fight a war with third rate country like Iraq and Afghanistan. Do you really think it would be that easy for China to fight a war with Taiwan? By just lobbing thousand of missile and expect no or low casualty in Chinese Side?

The problem with closeness actually work both way, not only China can lob missile at Taiwan, but Taiwan can lob missile at China too.