Whatever happens, it's not the 90's anymore. Once Western allies collapse, it won't be possible for West to influence the region.
Wishful thinking. Let's say it all goes to hell, Iran would be left standing for sure, strongest by a wide margin. With whom have we just signed some agreements to lift sanctions and sent trade delegations to? Oh, right......
Unless they embark on Crusade, which we say welcome to.
The patch of sand you call home is not worthy of a crusade. That's why we are developing alternative means of propulsion, not the internal combustion engine that runs on oil. In the meantime, oil despots will cling to power like they never clinged before. And ofcourse, keep selling oil. Should take note of Saudi's push to supply eastern Europe, trying to get traditional buyers of Russian crude. If Saudi kick the bucket in some strange uprisng or spontaneous revolt like you seem to be alluding to, Russians will sell back as Chinese are esxtracting every penny out of their contracts and Russia ins't getting what it got in Europe for it's energents.
Whatever happens, we will have energy and that's all that matters.
Then the correct analogy is 1990's Yugoslavia, when tens of thousands of refugees flowing into Italy and beyond compelled NATO to intervene with their armed forces to protect Muslims.
lol.....really, that was the reason for NATO intervention? And not the breaking up of the Russian sphere of influence and getting rid of an obstructive element who caused nothing but war in his quest for "Serbia to Tokyo". (Milosevic).
And no, even in the event that i'm wrong on the above, which i think i'm not, that would not be the correct analogy. By military standards, attack on Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) was a piss poor job, with target dummies being hit everywhere. In terms of hardware, Serbs are still flying the Mig-29's NATO claimed it destroyed. once they realized they cannot compete in the air they simply scattered high value assets.
So piss poor job. Why? Because no infantry, ie ground campaign. If you think of it logically.....the job of creating a safe space and living conditions for the refugees cannot be done with airpower alone.
