Dr N. Janardhan (Perspective) / 22 June 2012
SOME OF Indias characteristics 1.2 billion population, worlds largest democracy, home to 150 million Muslims, and largest provider of peacekeepers are well documented.
But with the majority of its population still poor by even conservative standards, its strategic importance in what the country is shaping to be is often undermined.
Even as it is super-poor at one level, it has the trappings of a superpower at another hi-tech plans to develop supercomputers, complete nuclear fuel cycle facilities, placement of own satellites in orbit, replicating IT success in biotechnology, biogenetics and pharmaceuticals, apart from already being the worlds No. 1 arms importer last year, and becoming the third largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity in 2012.
Overall, India is amid a churn to serve as the incubator of low-cost technology for high-end global problems. Thus, as much as the super-poor and superpower taglines appear contradictory, they are also a bitter reality that both India and the world must reconcile to.
The fact that about 46,000 Indians reportedly still die from snakebites every year and the country has more mobile phones than toilets could be scary and nauseating statistics. But they reflect the diversity of two Indias, each living in different ages, and scope for development which assures economic vibrancy. It is this aspiration for remedying the darker side that could be its inspiration to achieve the brighter end.
Yes, plenty of Cs abound its governance structure rather than be clean, it is cosmetic, corrupt, criminal, communal and clumsy. Yet, an old joke is that India grows at night when the government sleeps! This partly reflects the confidence and commitment of the entrepreneurial and middle classes.
Though the implications are debatable, India has reportedly succeeded in alleviating poverty among 52 million between 2005 and 2010, which was a high economic growth period. (Comparatively, 2.6 million Americans slipped into poverty in 2010.) It is forecast that India would grow at an average of five per cent for the next 50 years. This may help another 200 million out of poverty over the next two decades.
Even the slowing global economy has not hindered wealth generation in India. Fifty Indians were on the Forbes billionaires list in 2011 and the number of millionaires rose by 21 per cent to 162,000. By 2015, this is forecast to double.
This is why India need not be despondent. One needs to look back and be optimistic that the churn under way in various spheres would be more beneficial than detrimental. The country has risen from dust and is unlikely to bite dust again.
From being an aid recipient, it is now an aid donor. Reflecting the proverbial shoe is on the other foot, India recently committed $10 billion to the IMFs Eurozone bailout fund.
History is witness to economic growth usually translating into strategic influence. International politics of the future may adhere to a new trend, where rapidly developing countries may assume superpower status even before shedding their super-poor tag.
Washington has stressed that India has the institutional capacity to become a global power. It has also anointed India a global power and urged New Delhi to meet its international responsibilities. And, a US report Global Governance 2025 states that India is now the third most powerful nation.
While it is flattering to be recognised thus by the worlds sole superpower, even if it is a declining one, India needs to approach this with an element of caution rather than jubilation.
With Washington inclined to play divisive politics in Asia, the possibility of New Delhi emerging as an influential and constructive power in future does not lie in playing ball with Washington. Instead it needs to focus on overcoming competition and confrontation, and pursuing cooperation with China. Only this could carve a more representative multipolar world.
As a post-colonial country, potential superpowers of the future like India may behave more democratically than traditional superpowers. With New Delhi politely urging Washington to rethink and recalibrate the recently-announced Asia-Pacific policy, it may be doing just that.
With domestic consensus that growth is meaningless unless it improves living standards, Indias focus over the next decade or two would be more on national and less on international issues. How India tackles its super-poor reality will impact its superpower potential. This ought not to be an either or scenario. Neither should be undermined or compromised because there is no contradiction in the poor aspiring for power, nationally or internationally.
Dr N. Janardhan is a UAE-based political analyst, honorary fellow at the University of Exeter, UK, and author of Boom amid Gloom The Spirit of Possibility in the 21 st Century Gulf
