Successful Babur-3 test gives Pakistan ticket to elite nuke triad club

[SarthakGanguly]

No we do not think about Hindu and Indian extermination, we just want them(Indians) to stay away from Pakistan+Kashmir. They can enjoy their lives, their culture, their religion. we are not willing to sent anyone from India to Hell or Heaven unless forced upon.

The majority of Pakistanis do not share this opinion. Both on this forum and the few I have met in Canada and US. Of course, after a few pegs were downed.

 

[ghazi768]

Bilal bhai, can you give any insight in to if Pakistan has any programs for an air launched version of Babur (not talking about RAAD here) .. but an air launched cruise missile with a 500-700 Km range on it?

Anyways, congrats to the fellow countrymen on this test. As @Windjammer said, it may very well be one of the biggest feats we have achieved after the 1998 test. In my opinion, this presents a whole new list of variables to be dealt with (from the Indian pov). While air defense systems of India in the subcontinent theater, may very well be concentrated near the Indo-Pak border and near key installations, however we now have more than 4500 miles (7500 Km's) of coast line to work with. Something that @MastanKhan bhai usually alludes to when making his case for a heavier platform which has a good range+ big payload capability.

I do not think that there is any air-launched Babur project, first it will require more air-frame modifications to strengthen it and will also be a regression, Raad is more stealthier design because geared to be used in a certain conventional operational role as well.

When it comes to ranges, our announcements are more of 'declarations' of a minimum range with the aim to provide enough of calculations to opposite side for deterrence purpose. In past few years these 'declarations' are also done with an eye over the shoulder to a far bigger danger.

But lets say we were HONEST and gave an exact range. do you think it is a hi-hi? or probably a low-low profile. With cruise missiles basically being pilot less jets, wouldn't a hi-lo will result in about 40% increase in that stated range?

I think we should stop our curiosity about actual ranges this is for the planners to worry about, what is important is having a 'capability'.

Yes, I agree with you that India has more to contend with. For example, an SLCM capability is certainly not exactly equivalent to SLBM capability when it comes to second strike capability. But operationally, which is more offensive? if I am not wrong SLCM capability, whether nuclear or conventional, is considered more offensive because of its ability to surprise. It has elements of second strike but for an enemy presents a larger dilemma as a first strike capability.

Also Indian Navy is still long way off from having a four ship, all time available second strike capability, it will at best attain it by 2025 or later. By 2022-24, we'll have 7-9 submarines with at-least SLCM capability, I think that will provide a sizeable offensive force to contend with.

 

[The Deterrent]

Bilal bhai, can you give any insight in to if Pakistan has any programs for an air launched version of Babur (not talking about RAAD here) .. but an air launched cruise missile with a 500-700 Km range on it?

Negative, there won't be any air-launched Babur. Ra'ad serves precisely the same purpose, and has the same internal components. However an extended-range variant of Ra'ad is in the works, on the lines of Babur-2.

When it comes to ranges, our announcements are more of 'declarations' of a minimum range with the aim to provide enough of calculations to opposite side for deterrence purpose. In past few years these 'declarations' are also done with an eye over the shoulder to a far bigger danger.

I'm afraid that is not true. The ranges of the weapon systems described in official press releases are the exact figure these days (with the exception of one, but it's difference is minute). In fact they used to be exaggerated in the past, for example Shaheen-II's 2000km (actual 1500km).

 

[Blue Marlin]

Negative, there won't be any air-launched Babur. Ra'ad serves precisely the same purpose, and has the same internal components. However an extended-range variant of Ra'ad is in the works, on the lines of Babur-2.


I'm afraid that is not true. The ranges of the weapon systems described in official press releases are the exact figure these days (with the exception of one, but it's difference is minute). In fact they used to be exaggerated in the past, for example Shaheen-II's 2000km (actual 1500km).

I do not think that there is any air-launched Babur project, first it will require more air-frame modifications to strengthen it and will also be a regression, Raad is more stealthier design because geared to be used in a certain conventional operational role as well.

When it comes to ranges, our announcements are more of 'declarations' of a minimum range with the aim to provide enough of calculations to opposite side for deterrence purpose. In past few years these 'declarations' are also done with an eye over the shoulder to a far bigger danger.

But lets say we were HONEST and gave an exact range. do you think it is a hi-hi? or probably a low-low profile. With cruise missiles basically being pilot less jets, wouldn't a hi-lo will result in about 40% increase in that stated range?

I think we should stop our curiosity about actual ranges this is for the planners to worry about, what is important is having a 'capability'.

Yes, I agree with you that India has more to contend with. For example, an SLCM capability is certainly not exactly equivalent to SLBM capability when it comes to second strike capability. But operationally, which is more offensive? if I am not wrong SLCM capability, whether nuclear or conventional, is considered more offensive because of its ability to surprise. It has elements of second strike but for an enemy presents a larger dilemma as a first strike capability.

Also Indian Navy is still long way off from having a four ship, all time available second strike capability, it will at best attain it by 2025 or later. By 2022-24, we'll have 7-9 submarines with at-least SLCM capability, I think that will provide a sizeable offensive force to contend with.

hi can any of you guys give me the notam warning issued for the launch, as i understand the launch took place late last year but i cant find the post.

 

[The Deterrent]

hi can any of you guys give me the notam warning issued for the launch, as i understand the launch took place late last year but i cant find the post.

https://www.paknavy.gov.pk/securite/20161226SEC 437.txt

 

[Blue Marlin]

https://www.paknavy.gov.pk/securite/20161226SEC 437.txt

cheers pal!
appreciated

 

[JamD]

https://www.paknavy.gov.pk/securite/20161226SEC 437.txt

Are we really sure the test we saw was conducted under THIS NOTAM? I ask because the area specified by this NOTAM only has this tiny piece of land in it:

If we assume
1- That this was the NOTAM for the Babur 3 test we saw
2- The footage we saw was from one single test
3- Babur 3 was tested at its maximum range

then we can say that is the piece of land it hit and it flew a loop around in the area to fly its maximum range. But of course, this is a lot of assumptions.

 

[The Deterrent]

Are we really sure the test we saw was conducted under THIS NOTAM? I ask because the area specified by this NOTAM only has this tiny piece of land in it:
View attachment 367892

Yeah, 100% sure. Do keep in mind that this is a Naval Navigational Warning, and not a NOTAM (per se), which means this specific restriction applies to the naval traffic only. A NOTAM must also have been issued, but the CAA website is so difficult to explore, I dropped the idea.
Now, the weapon crossed over the coast approx 40km east of Ormara according to the video, an area not included in the warning. However, Ormara houses a PN base and given the magnitude of the whole thing, it must have been cordoned off manually by PN boats. Besides, that region gets blocked any way for naval traffic because of the land protrusion at Ormara.

See approx locations as shown by the video:
1. Where it crosses over land.
2. Second scene over land.
3. Most probable target region, as this area has the hills as shown in video.

(credit for geo-locating 1 & 2 goes to twitter user raj47, gotta give it where its due)

If we assume
1- That this was the NOTAM for the Babur 3 test we saw
2- The footage we saw was from one single test
3- Babur 3 was tested at its maximum range

then we can say that is the piece of land it hit and it flew a loop around in the area to fly its maximum range. But of course, this is a lot of assumptions.

Both 1 & 2 are true. However, testing at max range isn't necessary for CMs, since after the system starts the navigation over land, everything except payload is usually verified and there is no absolute necessity for it to go too deep in-land.

 

[JamD]

Yeah, 100% sure. Do keep in mind that this is a Naval Navigational Warning, and not a NOTAM (per se), which means this specific restriction applies to the naval traffic only. A NOTAM must also have been issued, but the CAA website is so difficult to explore, I dropped the idea.
Now, the weapon crossed over the coast approx 40km east of Ormara according to the video, an area not included in the warning. However, Ormara houses a PN base and given the magnitude of the whole thing, it must have been cordoned off manually by PN boats. Besides, that region gets blocked any way for naval traffic because of the land protrusion at Ormara.

See approx locations as shown by the video:
1. Where it crosses over land.
2. Second scene over land.
3. Most probable target region, as this area has the hills as shown in video.
View attachment 367894
(credit for geo-locating 1 & 2 goes to raj47, gotta give it where its due)

Both 1 & 2 are absolutely true, if there was any question about it, you'd hear it first from me. However, testing at max range isn't necessary for CMs, since after the system starts the navigation over land, everything except payload is usually verified and there is no absolute necessity for it to go too deep in-land. But of course it will be tested to its limits in the future.

I was trying to find those points 1,2,3 (on your map) too but it seems it has already been done! Thanks!

Yeah, 100% sure. Do keep in mind that this is a Naval Navigational Warning, and not a NOTAM (per se), which means this specific restriction applies to the naval traffic only. A NOTAM must also have been issued, but the CAA website is so difficult to explore, I dropped the idea.
Now, the weapon crossed over the coast approx 40km east of Ormara according to the video, an area not included in the warning. However, Ormara houses a PN base and given the magnitude of the whole thing, it must have been cordoned off manually by PN boats. Besides, that region gets blocked any way for naval traffic because of the land protrusion at Ormara.

See approx locations as shown by the video:
1. Where it crosses over land.
2. Second scene over land.
3. Most probable target region, as this area has the hills as shown in video.
View attachment 367894
(credit for geo-locating 1 & 2 goes to twitter user raj47, gotta give it where its due)

Both 1 & 2 are true. However, testing at max range isn't necessary for CMs, since after the system starts the navigation over land, everything except payload is usually verified and there is no absolute necessity for it to go too deep in-land.

Doesn't this portion of video suggest the missile is flying westwards? I say this because notice the direction of the features on the ground and the faint coastline in the back. It doesn't seem it flew straight to the target wherever it was.

This would of course suggest some sort of terminal maneuvering.

 

[The Deterrent]

View attachment 367895
Doesn't this portion of video suggest the missile is flying westwards? I say this because notice the direction of the features on the ground and the faint coastline in the back. It doesn't seem it flew straight to the target wherever it was.

Yeah you're right, I overlooked this. Kudos!
Anyways it was just an approximate guess. Its evident that the region north-east of Ormara is where it flew over land.

 

[Thorough Pro]

Sir, let me dare rephrase your sentence,

"In time Pakistan will declare SLBM capability also, our nuclear ambitions were/are not limited to only a few delivery options". We believe in peace and progress and no war, but if war is imposed upon us then we believe in total destruction.

In Time, Pakistan will also have SLBM capability. The nuclear triad doesn't limit us to SLCM only, which has now been publicly acknowledged.

 

[shhh]

No bro we don't need an ICBM we have no global ambitions

We should have an ICBM.

We need it to keep USA from threatening us again.

 

[Ultima Thule]

We should have an ICBM.

We need it to keep USA from threatening us again.

the simple answer is big "NO"

 

[The SC]

They are already at war covertly.
I still think it is better to have all the defence possible at one's disposal as one never knows. Zionist NATO does not consider Pakistan a friend irrespective of major non NATO ally.

Usrael has a 10 000 km range ICBM, While all the Arabs are at max 1000 km range and Iran is at around 2000 km!?

 

[war&peace]

I am very happy & congrats to all.

Meanwhile in India, they cannot stop their crap.

Our happiness is a grief for them, our gains are a loss for them whether is CPEC or Kashmir..and still they talk about peace and friendship...shameless hypocrites. We can never be friends and we should scratch this thought of friendship off our minds.