FOOLS_NIGHTMARE
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- Conventional wars may be a convenient cliché for politicians, but they can't be disregarded in their new avatars of limited wars
- The 'no war no peace’ dynamics at the LC and LAC will not be less challenging or violent
- No adversary must be underestimated nor be given the space to spring surprises
As the dawn of a turbulent 2020 draws its curtains, the volatility of 2021 poses major security challenges to India as never before. The warm turbulent summer of 2020, followed by hot winter on our borders holds the potential of a flared-up summer of 2021. Conventional wars may be a legacy and a convenient cliché for the politicians yet they cannot be disregarded in their new avatars of limited wars with possible escalation, nor a ‘no war no peace’ dynamics of LC and LAC be less challenging and violent. No adversary must be underestimated nor be given the space to spring surprises like in the past. India as a nation thus needs to be prepared for the worst while hoping for the best. This requires an integrated and synergized ‘whole of nation’ proactive approach to both the external and internal dimensions of national security. The nation will do well to acknowledge and act on these, as capability building takes time and the intentions of our adversaries can change fast.
Global Security Canvas
In the global security canvas, geopolitical fragility and the dynamic evolving landscape will cast its security challenges centered around the Asian landmass and the oceanic tides of Indo Pacific. Both the economic centre of gravity and the potential conflict zones are surely shifting towards Asia. India blessed by its geography, geostrategic location and newly found soft and hard is thus destined to play a larger role in the global strategic stability calculus. India’s balancing posture, economic potential and demonstrated military and strategic capabilities are seen as a stabilising factor against global turbulence and competitive geopolitics. Indian strategic security vision accordingly must envision the larger global security canvas while addressing the immediate existing threats. How India emerges in 2021 and treads its path over the next decade will thus decide the fate of India 2050 in particular and its stature in the global arena.
Defence and Foreign Policy 2021
In the international arena, India will need to show greater balance and dynamism to focus on its long term national interests. Foreign Policy serves as an enabler to meet the demands and aspirations of a nation while at the same time ensuring peace and security on the borders. The era of risk-averse passivity has overcome legacy ideological dogma and strategic tolerance backed by political will, yet lacks long term vision. Strategic autonomy at least for the next decade will remain an illusion that must be foundational on realities of multilateralism based on partnerships and convergence of national interests. India must thus leverage the evolving geopolitical canvas, to exploit the opportunities based on strategic convergence without creating dependencies. India must also remain relevant and influencing power on issues like climate change, balanced trade, niche technologies, and collective security through national interest-based multilateral engagement. Lord Palmerston of England once said ‘’There are no permanent friends, there are no permanent enemies, only permanent interests’’. This is ironically true for Indian foreign policy today to determine the permanent interests fostered by enabling partnerships and lessons of the unpleasant past of broken trust and treachery. While India looks and acts East and West, it must stymie the growing mistrust and weaning away of strategic relationships in the immediate neighbourhood. To strategically gain from historic bondages we need to give more to reset the strategic imbalance in the neighbourhood. India must also realise that in a globalised world plagued with a multitude of threats, diplomacy does not only belong to diplomats. Defence diplomacy in the 21st Century with its hard and soft power acts as an important tool of foreign policy and national security for conflict prevention/resolution and must find greater focus.
Defence and Domestic Dimension
The domestic dimension in India’s power calculus has also become more complex and challenging. The ability to accumulate comprehensive national power and capacity is increasingly constrained by an economic slowdown, sluggish military capability building and growing domestic dissonance. In particular poor state capacity, lack of inclusive development, receding political tolerance and growing internal divisions pose challenges. The fine dividing line the lexicon of patriotism, xenophobia and hyper-nationalism must not get blurred in an era of political jingoism. India currently requires strategic stability and capability enhancement in both military and economic domains. World today looks upon India with respect but under a scanner, unlike the past. The politicisation of the military, militarisation of foreign policy and polarisation of politics of a nation remain visible in the domestic and international domain. On the internal front, the recent protests and dissatisfactions on policies by both Jawan and Kisan and the ideological polarisation of Insaan send wrong signals of the growth and stature of a nation. India will shine only when Bharat will shine under one constitution, uncorrupted by politics and in the spirit of ‘Nation Above All’. On the economic front, micro-economic dynamism has to be connected with the macro-economic framework to prepare an economic blueprint for India. Looking at the economic lens, Dr Sunder Ramaswamy an international development economist, an educator, and higher education administrator with extensive experience, made an analogy from his seminal work, wherein he states India’s current performance was like the student who had the potential to perform at A+ level but does not match his potential and gets just a B or B- grade.
Defence and Policy Orientation
In matters defence, India is in a unique position in the present geostrategic environment. Its recent robust military responses both on the western and northern borders have brought to fore the global acknowledgment of its military capability, demonstrated credibility and strategic communication. This respect and dependency need to be harnessed to meet our national objectives. However, the area of skewed fiscal policies and distorted internal messaging are detrimental to both defence capability building and soldier welfare. Another area detrimental to India’s growing stature is the lack of coordination between MoD, MEA, MHA and MoF on understanding national security in support of its national objectives. Ironically the lack of a national security strategy and a national defence university have aided this segmented approach with a speckled understanding of the national defence. National security supported by fiscal resources has to be driven by strategic guidance and not just the domain of finance ministry or populistic party agenda devoid of a long term security perspective. As India progresses to a vibrant democracy with global recognition, the bureaucratic control has only tightened with defence policy-making being the exclusive charter of bureaucrats and diktats flowing from party-centric politics, devoid of ‘independent professional’ military perspective. The imperative is for greater synergy and integration based on a long-term vision but above all the need of the hour is a change of mindsets in national security orientation, policy formulation and policy implementation.
