Stimson Center: Pakistani/Indian experts discuss future conflict in Kashmir

[SIPRA]

They did Balakot and ......

They didn't do Balakot; Balakot did them.

 

[Nancy]

They didn't do Balakot; Balakot did them.

You can keep calling that after they will do Azad Kashmir, you will say Azad Kashmir did to them? good for self satisfaction, though.

 

[SIPRA]

If timing slips Indian might take large piece of Azad Kashmir, ......

 

[Nancy]

They didn't do Balakot; Balakot did them.

I would rather take it serious and do multi point planning on how to counter than, rather than keep thinking that it wont happen or etc. etc.

 

[SIPRA]

You can keep calling that after they will do Azad Kashmir, you will say Azad Kashmir did to them? good for self satisfaction, though.

Yes. What happened with India in Balakot; same would happen in future, as well, if they commit a mistake of doing any other misadventure.

 

[Nancy]

Yes. What happened with India in Balakot; same would happen in future, as well, if they commit a mistake of doing any other misadventure.

Do you call IOK annex a mistake? as it is done. I dont see any reaction from world.

 

[SIPRA]

I would rather take it serious and do multi point planning on how to counter than, rather than keep thinking that it wont happen or etc. etc.

The crux of the matter is very simple and straight. If we, the Pakistan, cannot preserve and defend our integrity and sovereignty, from a third grade and third rate country like India; then we didn't deserve it to begin with. That is all.

 

[SecularNationalist]

India taking pieces of ajk in small battles?
With every inch lost we will push war into India and if we lost conventionally then it will turn nuclear.

 

[Nancy]

The crux of the matter is very simple and straight. If we, the Pakistan, cannot preserve and defend our integrity and sovereignty, from a third grade and third rate country like India; then we didn't deserve it to begin with. That is all.

Sound like too much eogism. I would rather be patriotic.

 

[SIPRA]

Do you call IOK annex a mistake? as it is done. I dont see any reaction from world.

I told you already that IoJK was occupied and annexed in 1947. What they have done now is a change in their internal arrangement. The issue of Kashmir stands, as its was, since 1947.

Sound like too much eogism. I would rather be patriotic.

Where is there any "egoism" in my statement? It is a factual narrative that if a country cannot preserve its sovereignty; then it doesn't deserve it.

 

[macnurv]

Indian Army has the capability to surprise us and they have done it on many occasions, for example, 65 and Kargil. Simla agreement was torn into pieces in actual terms when Siachen happened. It stands void. But fact of the matter is, as Brig. Feroz rightly mentioned, Indians do have the higher ground at LoC. I wanted to discuss the technical grounds here.

You had me agreeing with you for most of your posts till you uttered these gems. Here is the thing it seems to me that you had been watching too many Indian analysis and reading those written by Indians. Indian Army is incapable of surprising Pakistan and its armed forces, now I am no nationalist or some one believing in baseless superiority myths but my opinion is based on ground realities. Indian army is currently incapable of taking part in any extended battle or full scale war, they are not ready for it. Pravin Swahney had written extensively on this topic, and he is no dove. What he is stating is based on facts on the ground, but I am not discounting the idea that Indians wont attack us. As things get bad in India economically and politically Modi and Amit along with whole Military high command might launch an attack on Azad Kashmir, such an attack will be based on a major miscalculation on their part.

Because from what I am reading as being written in India, they are severely underestimating our abilities and overly estimating their capabilities, the repercussions of Balakot are still alive and well in their minds so unless they have built some more capabilities they wont be attacking us.

Now lets look at it from another angle, what will India do once if the war will not go as per their plans, what if they start to loose IOK territory to Pakistan, what is the guarantee that they wont try to open another front along the border or worse launch missiles at Pakistan. If that is to happen it will be an all out Nuclear war, because there is no guarantee that Indians wont be the first ones launching nukes, we just can not take that chance. I am not saying these words lightly, it will be the end of us, them and humanity as we know it if this happens, but I am afraid Indian leadership is too arrogant and over confident to understand this fact.

They did Balakot and IOK annex very recently. That is why this thread.


I dont think so. Nuclear bluff is called many time. Other countries dont care as bluff was called already.

I think ISI need to predict the time very accurately. If timing slips Indian might take large piece of Azad Kashmir, then White house will call for truce. But too late for Pakistan. This is what happened in IOK annex.

Sorry but things today do not stand as they were in decades ago, you can not compare dynamics of 5 decades ago to today. Again there wont be any surprises by Indians, it is their turn to be surprised once again.

You can keep calling that after they will do Azad Kashmir, you will say Azad Kashmir did to them? good for self satisfaction, though.

You make less sense than a 2 year old toddler.

 

[Smarana Mitra]

REALITY is that india can do NOTHING to Pakistan. IF they could, they would have done so by now. Especially in light of their rhetoric. The fact that we are having this conversation is testament to how weak, powerless and incapable india is of taking on the Pakistani military even though they are more than 7× bigger than Pakistan........

Muslims have oil. India will lose oil supply if it attacks a muslim country like Pakistan directly. Hence,the calm behaviour. There ia no weakness inherently as such

 

[macnurv]

Muslims have oil. India will lose oil supply if it attacks a muslim country like Pakistan directly. Hence,the calm behaviour. There ia no weakness inherently as such

Please understand this is not going to happen, this concept of Umma is nothing but a dead horse. Its about time people stop beating it. Each and every country looks after their own interests regardless of religion or race. These concepts are only for domestic consumption and had little to no value when it comes to international affairs.

Any kind of war between India and Pakistan will not remain limited, it will consume us all. And those who die during it would be the lucky ones because those who survive it, for them it will be a never ending nightmare.

 

[Nancy]

Please understand this is not going to happen, this concept of Umma is nothing but a dead horse. Its about time people stop beating it. Each and every country looks after their own interests regardless of religion or race. These concepts are only for domestic consumption and had little to no value when it comes to international affairs.

Any kind of war between India and Pakistan will not remain limited, it will consume us all. And those who die during it would be the lucky ones because those who survive it, for them it will be a never ending nightmare.

lets see, it will happen soon. 2020 or 2021. Then we can debate it was limited or not. In my guess it will be very limited. First mover will annex other.

 

[SIPRA]

You had me agreeing with you for most of your posts till you uttered these gems. Here is the thing it seems to me that you had been watching too many Indian analysis and reading those written by Indians. Indian Army is incapable of surprising Pakistan and its armed forces, now I am no nationalist or some one believing in baseless superiority myths but my opinion is based on ground realities. Indian army is currently incapable of taking part in any extended battle or full scale war, they are not ready for it. Pravin Swahney had written extensively on this topic, and he is no dove. What he is stating is based on facts on the ground, but I am not discounting the idea that Indians wont attack us. As things get bad in India economically and politically Modi and Amit along with whole Military high command might launch an attack on Azad Kashmir, such an attack will be based on a major miscalculation on their part.

Because from what I am reading as being written in India, they are severely underestimating our abilities and overly estimating their capabilities, the repercussions of Balakot are still alive and well in their minds so unless they have built some more capabilities they wont be attacking us.

Now lets look at it from another angle, what will India do once if the war will not go as per their plans, what if they start to loose IOK territory to Pakistan, what is the guarantee that they wont try to open another front along the border or worse launch missiles at Pakistan. If that is to happen it will be an all out Nuclear war, because there is no guarantee that Indians wont be the first ones launching nukes, we just can not take that chance. I am not saying these words lightly, it will be the end of us, them and humanity as we know it if this happens, but I am afraid Indian leadership is too arrogant and over confident to understand this fact.

Excellent analysis. Fully agree.