You had me agreeing with you for most of your posts till you uttered these gems. Here is the thing it seems to me that you had been watching too many Indian analysis and reading those written by Indians. Indian Army is incapable of surprising Pakistan and its armed forces, now I am no nationalist or some one believing in baseless superiority myths but my opinion is based on ground realities. Indian army is currently incapable of taking part in any extended battle or full scale war, they are not ready for it. Pravin Swahney had written extensively on this topic, and he is no dove. What he is stating is based on facts on the ground, but I am not discounting the idea that Indians wont attack us. As things get bad in India economically and politically Modi and Amit along with whole Military high command might launch an attack on Azad Kashmir, such an attack will be based on a major miscalculation on their part.
Because from what I am reading as being written in India, they are severely underestimating our abilities and overly estimating their capabilities, the repercussions of Balakot are still alive and well in their minds so unless they have built some more capabilities they wont be attacking us.
Now lets look at it from another angle, what will India do once if the war will not go as per their plans, what if they start to loose IOK territory to Pakistan, what is the guarantee that they wont try to open another front along the border or worse launch missiles at Pakistan. If that is to happen it will be an all out Nuclear war, because there is no guarantee that Indians wont be the first ones launching nukes, we just can not take that chance. I am not saying these words lightly, it will be the end of us, them and humanity as we know it if this happens, but I am afraid Indian leadership is too arrogant and over confident to understand this fact.