South China Sea Forum

[ChineseTiger1986]

8 TR Dollar Vs 16 Tr Dollar

List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

China's GDP was 9.3 trillion in 2013, and the US GDP in 2013 was 7 trillion more.

 

[Genesis]

US economy is double than Chinese economy. So unless Chinese GDP grows 2 time, there is not any narrowing of GAP. If Chinese GDP grows more than 2 times of that of US, the gap will narrow. If US grows at 3 %, China need to grow above 6 % to narrow the GAP.

That's not how GDP is calculated, lots of factors go into it. The growth is a percentage of that, but hardly the whole story. But that's not the point of this thread.

 

[HariPrasad]

That's not how GDP is calculated, lots of factors go into it. The growth is a percentage of that, but hardly the whole story. But that's not the point of this thread.

You simply failed to understand my post and simple maths.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

You simply failed to understand my post and simple maths.

Well, China's GDP will inevitably surpass USA soon or later, it doesn't matter how US keeps changing the method of its GDP calculation, they will have to face this reality one day.

 

[Genesis]

You simply failed to understand my post and simple maths.

go calculate India GDP from one year to the next and see if the difference is the growth. There's tons of factors that goes into it.

 

[Rechoice]

The only thieves are Vietnam and the Philippines. Vietnam acknowledged that the Spratlys and Paracels were Chinese during the Vietnam war, and started their backstabing after America left.

Vietnam Joins the World - Google Books

Vietnam Joins the World - Google Books



Britain first found Chinese fishermen from Hainan on the Spratly islands, then they launched the first modern legal claims to the islands.

Security and International Politics in the South China Sea: Towards a co ... - Google Books

War Or Peace in the South China Sea? - Google Books

Dictionary of Contemporary Chinese Military History - Larry M. Wortzel, Robin D. S. Higham - Google Books

The Republic of China (Taiwan) garrisoned, claimed and occupied the Spratly islands before Vietnam was even independent from France in the 1930s. It was the first asian country to claim and garrison the islands and Chinese fishermen were there before Vietnam. Philippines did not claim the islands until the 1970s under Marcos.

Vietnam Joins the World - Google Books

Where in the World is the Philippines?: Debating Its National Territory - Rodolfo Severino - Google Books

The Law of the Sea and Northeast Asia: A Challenge for Cooperation - HÅi-gwŏn Pak - Google Books

Spratly Islands (reefs, South China Sea) -- Encyclopedia Britannica

.
The Geneva Conference (April 26 – July 20, 1954) was signed by North Vietnam and Chima, Islands belong to South Vietnam, China robbed our Islands 1974 when USA left, kid.

Ancient maps of Quang Ngai province, drawn by Do Ba in mid-17th century. Captions on the map note Vietnamese Nguyen Lords' exploration activities on Hoang Sa.

 

[xunzi]

But the question is can China maintain this GDP growth till it passes the US and even if it does The US would still be in a better position due to the respective populations so the US presence in ASEAN is to stay for a very long time as i see it?

And another question is that of Japan which as we all know is not a weak nation what if it starts an arms race with China and relations go beyond repair point?

The question is not if we can surpass the US in GDP but the question is when. There is also the question of when we achieve military parity with the US, what would happen to the rest of Asia and the world? Can South China Sea house two super military giants?

We fully welcome an arm race with Japan. We don't believe Japan can beat us in an arm race without US's assistance.

 

[NiceGuy]

The question is not if we can surpass the US in GDP but the question is when. There is also the question of when we achieve military parity with the US, what would happen to the rest of Asia and the world? Can South China Sea house two super military giants?

.

Nothing happen, China army is corrupted and stupid in fighting , USA is an old loser . Vn-Russia will keep control SCS(east sea) as usual

 

[Viet]

*I won't discuss actual military hardware here, not that I don't think it's important, but modern warefare is a game of cash, whoever can pump the most into it wins. Of course there are other factors, but most of it revolve around the generation and availability of money.

*my own piece and my two cent.

South China sea dispute will not bring any actual conflicts between China and ASEAN. The difference in strength is apparent, and with no way of waging guerrilla warfare on the seas, it's also not a matter of occupation.

The "arms race" of Asia is not an actual thing, for as much as been talked about China's military spending, the total percentage in relation to GDP has actually dropped this year and has almost never exceeded such nations as US, UK, France, or even India and sometimes Italy. It's also getting close to Japan in terms of percentage, a nation that's constitutionally not allowed to make war.

The one factor that's delaying the inevitable is the United States of America, the most powerful force in Asia and the world, for now.

The tension stems not from the fact that China is "causing trouble," for China has been the hegemon in the area more or less for the last 2000 years and peace was the way of life for much of that period. Nor is it from the accusation of claiming seas and violating international laws. I will talk about this point later in the post.

The trouble is from the China US rivalry and the past 20 years of craziness, including the great leap forward the cultural revolution, and such, as well as the hundred years of humiliation that dropped Chinese prestige all the way to bottom of the barrel.

There is no ill feeling from me, a Chinese, who understands the reputation China has because of those things, it is not a thing of prestige to say one is working with China, and worse to stand below it. The US here offers an attractive alternative, the land of opportunity, the land of the free. The nation that has won the cold war and became the sole super power in the world and could determined the fate of any nation at the drop of a hat.

This is like NBA, playing for Cleavland Cavs, and LA Lakers, or playing for Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid.

But just as Japan changed its image of a low end manufacturing nation to that of a high tech one, so too will China, that is not a prediction, but a natural order of things. Much like no one would question the growth of a person.

Now let's go back to the my claim, that the nine dash line isn't what's causing the tension. Chinese claim and Western claim is very different. Since ancient times China has only demanded tribute from neighboring nations, while the West colonizes. The fundamental understanding of "my" is different from China to US.

Chinese nine dash line, when realize won't result in banning of foreign fishing, or mining of energy, it would actually be exactly how it is, but with China as the protector of the ocean instead of the US.

You can doubt my claim if you wish, but it's what is apparent is that the ultimate goal for the China is the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, not the monopoly of all Asian resources. Look at China in Africa, we give loans and we give infrastructure, regardless of what the West have painted China in Africa, there are roads, and rails that otherwise won't be there. The mining efficiency has dramatically increased in Chinese invest countries, and China is polled as an example to follow by many African nations. I can show source for this if anyone is interested.

China wants a place in the world that would fit someone of her size and strength, she wants to be seen as the shinning light of the world, the goal is to be benevolent, not insane. If you want more proof, Ming dynasty, China sent Zheng He, and diplomat that created trade, the West sent Columbus, looking for new land. (yea I know he went searching for trade route, but you get my meaning)

Regarding resource, it's not as simple as owning the ocean and extract resource like a mad man. America didn't ship oil from Afgan straight to the US after it conquered it for much of the same reason. I won't go too deep in it, but world economy isn't playing house, especially in today's world. This talk of China wanting the resource is true, but not in the way most would have you believe. Nobody is trying to pee in the ocean.

So that brings us back to China US rivalry, the cause of the tension, and my assertion that South China sea conflict will end in a whimper and not a bang.

The US doesn't want to give up it's position as the leader of Asia and the world. If she does give up on the China seas, she would have effectively given up both. However, much like how the Soviets knew they couldn't keep up the cold war much longer back in the 80s. Americans today must know they cannot stay in Asia forever.

It has become increasingly evident that China will past the US within a decade's time as the number one in nominal GDP, and then, the gap would widen. The Chinese engineers and other graduates are out numbering the US almost 2 to 1 if not more and soon it will be much more.

In the past this would have resulted in a war and the winner would advance. But with the invention of nuclear weapons, globalization, and the the way people look at war, government in general, it is very unlikely for the US and China to actually clash in the present. For unlike WW1 and WW2, no one in the states will be cheering for war on the streets like those wars past, and it's also one of the main reasons I don't think war will be likely. Times have changed.

Finally, if my arguments prove to be right, that the US will have to pull out of Asia one way or another, China and ASEAN will no longer have any obstacles in obtaining a deal that would suit both. With it would being an end to this tension in Asia, and will truly begin the Asian century.

WOW! nice, how long did you take to write this essay?

I don´t want to go too much into details, just take one of your statement as below:

"Chinese nine dash line, when realize won't result in banning of foreign fishing, or mining of energy, it would actually be exactly how it is, but with China as the protector of the ocean instead of the US".

Your argument is full of flaw and does not reflect the reality what you do on the ground!
Why? let take the position of Vietnam. just some examples.

since beginning of this year, you issue onesided a fishing ban over the SE Sea. China demands all Vietnamese fishermen to seek a permission at Chinese authority if they go fishing. You demand Vietnam to surrender to China. And you try to explain me that you just want to protect us before America?

last year, you fired at our fishermen when they came close to Paracles, damaging their vessel and risked their lives. protect us before America? Thousands of Chinese violated our waters, and our reaction was just chased them away. We never fire at your fishermen.

you staged a military excercise to celebrate your victory at Paracles 40 years ago, just to provoke Vietnam. you want to protect us before America?

one or two years you intruded our EEZ waters, cut one of exploration vessels, risked a war with Vietnam. you want just to protect us before America?

you invaded Paracels and Spratlys and killed our people. you want to protect us before America?

you want to explore oil and gas in our EEZ waters. you invite foreign companies to violate our country right. you want just to protect us before America?

I believe you live in a different world. I don´t know where it is, but it is not here.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Great thread Genesis.

 

[Viet]

Chinese delusion, as usual. They live in a parallel universe.
No, we don´t need your protection. Pls stay away off our waters. Fck off!

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

Chinese delusion, as usual. They live in a parallel universe.
No, we don´t need your protection. Pls stay away off our waters. Fck off!

you mean to stay away from your water such Song Hong?..that's the last thing you want to wish

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Chinese delusion, as usual. They live in a parallel universe.
No, we don´t need your protection. Pls stay away off our waters. Fck off!

No.

 

[Edison Chen]

US economy is double than Chinese economy. So unless Chinese GDP grows 2 time, there is not any narrowing of GAP. If Chinese GDP grows more than 2 times of that of US, the gap will narrow. If US grows at 3 %, China need to grow above 6 % to narrow the GAP.

You should take CNY inflation factor into calculation.

Chinese delusion, as usual. They live in a parallel universe.
No, we don´t need your protection. Pls stay away off our waters. Fck off!

Join China and there will never be fight again.

 

[Genesis]

WOW! nice, how long did you take to write this essay?

I don´t want to go too much into details, just take one of your statement as below:

"Chinese nine dash line, when realize won't result in banning of foreign fishing, or mining of energy, it would actually be exactly how it is, but with China as the protector of the ocean instead of the US".

Your argument is full of flaw and does not reflect the reality what you do on the ground!
Why? let take the position of Vietnam. just some examples.

since beginning of this year, you issue onesided a fishing ban over the SE Sea. China demands all Vietnamese fishermen to seek a permission at Chinese authority if they go fishing. You demand Vietnam to surrender to China. And you try to explain me that you just want to protect us before America?

last year, you fired at our fishermen when they came close to Paracles, damaging their vessel and risked their lives. protect us before America? Thousands of Chinese violated our waters, and our reaction was just chased them away. We never fire at your fishermen.

you staged a military excercise to celebrate your victory at Paracles 40 years ago, just to provoke Vietnam. you want to protect us before America?

one or two years you intruded our EEZ waters, cut one of exploration vessels, risked a war with Vietnam. you want just to protect us before America?

you invaded Paracels and Spratlys and killed our people. you want to protect us before America?

you want to explore oil and gas in our EEZ waters. you invite foreign companies to violate our country right. you want just to protect us before America?

I believe you live in a different world. I don´t know where it is, but it is not here.

What you said could be true, but in this case it is not. There's a couple of things you are not seeing. What you assuming is what is happening today is what will happen tomorrow.

Being Asian, especially east Asian I thought you know enough of our culture to understand, but I could explain it to you.

China and Vietnam is currently in a deadlock over the seas, how we handle this issue is obviously going to be different than when the situation is resolved. Not even the crazy non flexible western mentality would deal with one situation the same in two different environments.

Let's look at the facts. During the Chinese civil war, Mao created a list of war criminals on the nationalists side. However, all who turned and joined the revolution on the side of the people were not only allowed to keep their positions but also promoted depending on merit. The Chinese vice premiership was even given to some one who slaughtered Communists during the purge by the nationalists early on, due to his contribution the country.

Despite all the "bad blood," China is still continue trading with Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, sure there is some boycott here and there, that happens on all sides, but the official government stance has never been one of revenge.

Lastly, the ultimate goal for China isn't Asia, it is a leader position in the WORLD, having petty conflicts and not be generous is not the Chinese ruling class' mentality since Ancient times, there has always been the carrot and the stick.

During Zheng He's voyage in Ming dynasty, he took a few kings prisoner for slaughtering his men and trying to rob him, and for fighting with him. On his return, the YongLe emperor granted them pardon and officially gave them recognition as the divine rulers of respected countries and signed trade agreements with them, as well as bestowed gifts on them.

That's the Chinese mentality, I'm not telling Philippines and Vietnam to surrender, it won't come to that, as soon as the US is gone, a mutual defence agreement and exploration agreement is more likely, China could also pump major investments into respective countries.

Working with China historically has also been one of prestige and benefit, kings and princes would kill for the privilege of presenting themselves in front of the emperor. With our return to form, our usual policy of non-interference in internal politics, no strings attached deals are far more attractive than Western counter parts, who got it into their heads that they are superior and knows best. We are not superior, but we are more numerous.