*I won't discuss actual military hardware here, not that I don't think it's important, but modern warefare is a game of cash, whoever can pump the most into it wins. Of course there are other factors, but most of it revolve around the generation and availability of money.
*my own piece and my two cent.
South China sea dispute will not bring any actual conflicts between China and ASEAN. The difference in strength is apparent, and with no way of waging guerrilla warfare on the seas, it's also not a matter of occupation.
The "arms race" of Asia is not an actual thing, for as much as been talked about China's military spending, the total percentage in relation to GDP has actually dropped this year and has almost never exceeded such nations as US, UK, France, or even India and sometimes Italy. It's also getting close to Japan in terms of percentage, a nation that's constitutionally not allowed to make war.
The one factor that's delaying the inevitable is the United States of America, the most powerful force in Asia and the world, for now.
The tension stems not from the fact that China is "causing trouble," for China has been the hegemon in the area more or less for the last 2000 years and peace was the way of life for much of that period. Nor is it from the accusation of claiming seas and violating international laws. I will talk about this point later in the post.
The trouble is from the China US rivalry and the past 20 years of craziness, including the great leap forward the cultural revolution, and such, as well as the hundred years of humiliation that dropped Chinese prestige all the way to bottom of the barrel.
There is no ill feeling from me, a Chinese, who understands the reputation China has because of those things, it is not a thing of prestige to say one is working with China, and worse to stand below it. The US here offers an attractive alternative, the land of opportunity, the land of the free. The nation that has won the cold war and became the sole super power in the world and could determined the fate of any nation at the drop of a hat.
This is like NBA, playing for Cleavland Cavs, and LA Lakers, or playing for Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid.
But just as Japan changed its image of a low end manufacturing nation to that of a high tech one, so too will China, that is not a prediction, but a natural order of things. Much like no one would question the growth of a person.
Now let's go back to the my claim, that the nine dash line isn't what's causing the tension. Chinese claim and Western claim is very different. Since ancient times China has only demanded tribute from neighboring nations, while the West colonizes. The fundamental understanding of "my" is different from China to US.
Chinese nine dash line, when realize won't result in banning of foreign fishing, or mining of energy, it would actually be exactly how it is, but with China as the protector of the ocean instead of the US.
You can doubt my claim if you wish, but it's what is apparent is that the ultimate goal for the China is the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, not the monopoly of all Asian resources. Look at China in Africa, we give loans and we give infrastructure, regardless of what the West have painted China in Africa, there are roads, and rails that otherwise won't be there. The mining efficiency has dramatically increased in Chinese invest countries, and China is polled as an example to follow by many African nations. I can show source for this if anyone is interested.
China wants a place in the world that would fit someone of her size and strength, she wants to be seen as the shinning light of the world, the goal is to be benevolent, not insane. If you want more proof, Ming dynasty, China sent Zheng He, and diplomat that created trade, the West sent Columbus, looking for new land. (yea I know he went searching for trade route, but you get my meaning)
Regarding resource, it's not as simple as owning the ocean and extract resource like a mad man. America didn't ship oil from Afgan straight to the US after it conquered it for much of the same reason. I won't go too deep in it, but world economy isn't playing house, especially in today's world. This talk of China wanting the resource is true, but not in the way most would have you believe. Nobody is trying to pee in the ocean.
So that brings us back to China US rivalry, the cause of the tension, and my assertion that South China sea conflict will end in a whimper and not a bang.
The US doesn't want to give up it's position as the leader of Asia and the world. If she does give up on the China seas, she would have effectively given up both. However, much like how the Soviets knew they couldn't keep up the cold war much longer back in the 80s. Americans today must know they cannot stay in Asia forever.
It has become increasingly evident that China will past the US within a decade's time as the number one in nominal GDP, and then, the gap would widen. The Chinese engineers and other graduates are out numbering the US almost 2 to 1 if not more and soon it will be much more.
In the past this would have resulted in a war and the winner would advance. But with the invention of nuclear weapons, globalization, and the the way people look at war, government in general, it is very unlikely for the US and China to actually clash in the present. For unlike WW1 and WW2, no one in the states will be cheering for war on the streets like those wars past, and it's also one of the main reasons I don't think war will be likely. Times have changed.
Finally, if my arguments prove to be right, that the US will have to pull out of Asia one way or another, China and ASEAN will no longer have any obstacles in obtaining a deal that would suit both. With it would being an end to this tension in Asia, and will truly begin the Asian century.
