Should Russia worry about Modi's U.S. visit?

[Bang Galore]

You got to be kidding me right? Modi and not favouring media moments? He is not wasting anything in that regard and he has an excellent PR team around him, which was visible since the elections. When you look at the recent foreign visits and compare the PR parts for the media, with the actual achivements on political levels, you get a pretty one sided picture. So if the helicopter deals were not cleared during the visit it was surely not because they (he and his team) didn't wanted it.

Regardless of how the media moments are captured outside of the actual diplomatic meetings, in relations with Japan, China & now with the US, it is clear that Modi is un-inclined to paper over differences by heavy dose of sugar coating( was seen in even the successful outing in Nepal where a major hydro-electric deal was unsigned because differences had not totally resolved). All diplomacy is about putting a little spin but the refusal to sign the US-2 when the Japanese pushed (since they didn't give on the nuclear deal) but let it pass for a lesser moment is indicative of how Modi seems to want to work. If he didn't want the helicopter deals to go through, the cabinet wouldn't have looked at it before the visit.

When our defence minister and the US defence secretary recently discussed it and didn't reached to a conclusion and any report expected that the issue / the procurements, the next step that is available is the PM and President meeting. And I already gave plenty examples where defence deals were fixed during meetings of the highest levels, which also wasn't that important.

If defence ministers talked & it went nowhere, the PM would not have dealt with it. No likely to taint a first visit without understanding the American President & his position on Indo-US ties clearly. These will follow, not start off.

If he had signed the helicopter deal, it the visit had got us the expected result. If he got the US to even consider officially about a change of ToT/offset issues, I would have applauded it because that was a big step and even, if the final joint statement had just saying, we have discussed it and made some progress, it would had been a clear signal, but none of that happened!

The helicopter deal will get signed, there is nothing that the PM needs to do about it and it has no bearing on the PM's visit, one way or the other.

Frank Kendall, under-secretary (acquisition) in the defence department is visiting India precisely to follow up on the visit & discuss what technologies & weapon systems will now be offered, this after internal consultation within the US administration & defence firms.

"On defense trade, the two leaders reaffirmed a previous commitment to “treat each other at the same level as their closest partners”—an assurance that, in the main, signals a growing American willingness to offer India sensitive technologies for defense-related co-production and co-development. They established a Task Force to oversee implementation of the Defense Trade and Technology Initiative, a joint effort to cut through bureaucratic obstacles to trade and technology transfer."

Of course it is, but this was not the 3rd or even 5th visit of the same PM, or of the same government, but the 1st visit of a new PM from a new government and the implications of this visit has to show if things will go on as with the former government, or if there will be changes / improvements. What we have seen though, is not different than what we have seen in the past few years. Defence pact, basic support for Indias permanent UN seat, basic support on terrorism, that's it. So even if no major result was achived (which is ok at this stage), not even basic implications of a good or improving defence relation can be seen.

This was a getting to know meeting ion the early days of the Modi government. He has yet to sort out the issues internally in India & appoint a new Defence Minister (most probably). Better to lay out the ground work & have professionals deal with it rather than the PM attempting to do the heavy lifting during his visit. This is all about give & take, tough negotiations & hard bargaining. Not the PM's job in his first meeting.

 

[Jayanta]

They seem pretty pi$$ed:

BTW who is that nut case???

 

[Tshering22]

bhai

russia should not worry about US visit but rather focus on definite outcomes achieveable during putins india visit

Does Putin look like he's worried?

No one today is worried. These are just fancy words in media and among analysts of foreign policy.

Putin has met PM Modi much before anyone else did; at BRICS summit. And knowing his KGB background, he would have had a good idea about understanding NaMo and what exactly the new political outlook of India is going to be.

If anything, Putin would be pleased of not having to worry about India taking camps but seeing the country's benefit first. So all things are out in the open unlike the ambiguous UPA which used to hop in favour of other countries rather than seeing India's requirements.

 

[MST]

lol you Indians think to be able to blackmail Russia for ToT in order to please India?? I think in contrary, if you get Russians pissed, they can sell China better military toys than to India to prove their displeasure...bottom line you depend on them they dont depend on you.

Why super dooper China need to buy weapons from Russia. Isn't China a super power? Isn't J 20 better than PAKFA?

OT, Russia and India will always be special friends. This will only change if you guys start playing Canada to Russians. Your bonhomie with Russians is short term just to counter the only Super Power.

 

[sancho]

If defence ministers talked & it went nowhere, the PM would not have dealt with it.

MMS maybe not, since then there was a propper seperation between PM and DM, but you really must ignore the changes of hierarchy in the recent months, to believe that Modi wouldn't have jumped on that. He is even urging the chiefs to talk with him directly, rather than with the DM who actually should be responsible for defence and the forces.

The helicopter deal will get signed, there is nothing that the PM needs to do about it and it has no bearing on the PM's visit, one way or the other.

Repeating the same thing again, doesn't make the fact that it easily could had been done during the visit, less true. The point is not that it will come, that's a no brainer, but that it doesn't happend during the visit as generally expected and when it had the most effect for PR reasons as they usually happen. If you like it or not, for a politician and the huge implication this visit had, a crucial chance was missed here and you simply can't deny that nothing was achived for defence reasons.

 

[Dash]

They seem pretty pi$$ed:

Haha....good one

 

[Dash]

As expected you Indians like to have everybody (US, Japan, Russia..) to be on your side when facing China, the fact is that Russia has never support China against India, only you guys are dreaming to have Russia to be on your side against China but at the same time you want to piss Russia by cozing with Russia's foe...and still expect Russia to please India? ...Indian logic

Good thinking. Well you too have never supported Pakistan against India.

 

[Bang Galore]

MMS maybe not, since then there was a propper seperation between PM and DM, but you really must ignore the changes of hierarchy in the recent months, to believe that Modi wouldn't have jumped on that. He is even urging the chiefs to talk with him directly, rather than with the DM who actually should be responsible for defence and the forces.
.

That's internal. He is the boss. Negotiations with foreign leaders are unlikely to be approached the same way.

Repeating the same thing again, doesn't make the fact that it easily could had been done during the visit, less true. The point is not that it will come, that's a no brainer, but that it doesn't happend during the visit as generally expected and when it had the most effect for PR reasons as they usually happen. If you like it or not, for a politician and the huge implication this visit had, a crucial chance was missed here and you simply can't deny that nothing was achived for defence reasons

I said that we will have to wait & watch. You seem to think that something would have been achieved if the PM had signed some deals that are going to be signed anyway. That relates only to atmospherics, something you admit when you talk about good PR. The PM obviously didn't see it that way.

We are now simply restating our positions. We can agree to disagree about whether this trip was a failure or not w.r.t defence. Let's discuss this if something new crops up.

 

[sancho]

Negotiations with foreign leaders are unlikely to be approached the same way.

Again, that's not true. Obama, Sarkozy, Putin and even during MMS visits abroad Defence issues were always raised, so finding excuses now why nothing happend during this visit, by denying this usual habit is not really realistic. Here an article that shows what was expected wrt defence before the visit:

US likely to revive defence trade during PM’s visit

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits United States later this week, Obama administration will try to revive Indo-US defence trade, which had dropped sharply during the second term of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government. Both the countries will try to move from a traditional buyer-seller relationship to “co-production, co-development and freer exchange of technology’’.

Such a proposal aligns closely with New Delhi’s own aspirations in this arena and highlights the importance of the India-US Defence Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI).

Launched in 2012, the DTTI is aimed at promoting defense trade, facilitating technology transfers, cutting red tape, and identifying opportunities for co-production and co-development between the two countries.

The US side will certainly push hard for $2.8 billion in delayed sales of Boeing’s Apache attack and Chinook military transport helicopters to be among the first completed under the new regime. The $1.4 billion order for 22 AH-64D Apaches was first approved in December 2010 and a separate deal for 15 heavy-lift CH-47F Chinook helicopters is valued at $1.4 billion.

According to defence ministry sources, the government is keen to acquire Boeing’s Chinook and Apache helicopters - a deal that can play a major role revamp the strained ties between New Delhi and Washington. Significantly, the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC)has already cleared the last hurdle for signing of the contract with the US in respect of Apache and Chinook.

The BJP’s election manifesto specifically called for modernising India’s armed forces and building its indigenous defence procurement capacities, something it currently cannot do on its own.

Toward this end, the Modi government has raised foreign direct investment caps in the defence sector to 49%. These are encouraging developments for security ties between the two countries. They present Washington, as well as American defense companies, with unparalleled opportunities to help India attain its defense modernisation ambitions.

The US is also expected to push for defence deals worth more than $7 billion, including the stalled mega deals for M-777 ultra-light howitzers and Javelin anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). The US bagged Indian defence deals worth $10 billion in the last decade and edged past Russia as India’s number one defense supplier. But the greed is growing among American arms manufacturers, who want to expand the US defence export to India by including helicopters and UAV’s (unmanned aerial vehicles).

These howitzers are meant to be deployed by India’s new mountai

US likely to revive defence trade during PM’s visit - Financial Express

So everything was in line to show new export deals during the visit, but none of the potential chances, not even the already cleared once without any remaining issues got fixed!

You seem to think that something would have been achieved if the PM had signed some deals that are going to be signed anyway. That relates only to atmospherics, something you admit when you talk about good PR.

Of course there would be some achivements, once that our forces gets the arms they want as soon as possible and don't neet to wait for the next meeting of Indian and US officials. But as I said, more important would had been "at least" an improvent on the ToT/offset/ joint development issue, because these are the core problems that limits Indo-US procurement deals! So any improvement here, that would had been announced would be an achivement for India. And such improvements happens only in such major visits, not in backchannel talks of lower level officials. If something meaningful in that issue was to happen, it would had happend during this visit, or simply will take far longer and further negotiations.

 

[Bang Galore]

US likely to revive defence trade during PM’s visit - Financial Express

So everything was in line to show new export deals during the visit, but none of the potential chances, not even the already cleared once without any remaining issues got fixed!



Of course there would be some achivements, once that our forces gets the arms they want as soon as possible and don't neet to wait for the next meeting of Indian and US officials. But as I said, more important would had been "at least" an improvent on the ToT/offset/ joint development issue, because these are the core problems that limits Indo-US procurement deals! So any improvement here, that would had been announced would be an achivement for India. And such improvements happens only in such major visits, not in backchannel talks of lower level officials. If something meaningful in that issue was to happen, it would had happend during this visit, or simply will take far longer and further negotiations.

We will have to agree to disagree. I don't buy the arguments that signing deals that will happen anyway are a some sort of a sign of success. You obviously disagree.

Again, that's not true. Obama, Sarkozy, Putin and even during MMS visits abroad Defence issues were always raised, so finding excuses now why nothing happend during this visit, by denying this usual habit is not really realistic.

If you read what I said, I pointed out that it is not Modi's style. What MMS did hardly matters now & with the PM of defence Antony pretty much doing his own thing (the India-US defence pact was a great example, the Americans were so irritated that India simply did nothing that was agreed, that they actually wanted it renegotiated completely this time), that argument is overblown.

Here an article that shows what was expected wrt defence before the visit:

Nobody expected they would be signed during this visit, that will all happen in due course. This what is also said:

The strategic punch, thus, was packed for the end of the tour. Hours before Modi was to fly back on his special Air India One, Obama and Modi came out with an unprecedentedly long (3,500 words!) joint statement which could take India into the tightest strategic embrace ever with the US. Both leaders vowed to treat each other as "their closest partners", a phrase so far reserved only for Russia, "including defence technology transfers, trade, research, co-production, and co-development."

It even looked that the Americans were working to pre-finesse Russia's Vladimir Putin who is planning to visit India in December with a bouquet of defence technology offers. Putin is expected to give particular attention to building ships for his own fleet and getting a few built for the Indian Navy over the next 20 years. The Indian Navy, which has been exercising with the US Navy for several years, has so far been wary of receiving technology from the US. Now when Obama offered to enhance naval technology tie-ups, which may include even ship-building technologies and upgrade Malabar exercises to a higher strategic level, Modi readily agreed.

There had been a bouquet of proposals from the US side under the Defence Trade and Technology Initiative started by Ashton Carter, former US deputy secretary of defence and Shivshankar Menon, former national security adviser, but only the Javelin anti-tank guided missile programme had been taken up under it. Defence Minister Arun Jaitley is expected to visit Washington this month by which time more defence technology projects could be identified and taken forward.

Perhaps the biggest gift Modi wrested from Obama was to make him recognise that India is a responsible missile power, just as it has been a responsible nuclear power. Even after the nuclear deal, the US had been wary of India's missile adventures, but now Obama has affirmed "that India meets MTCR [missile technology control regime] requirements." He even supported "India's early application and eventual membership" into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), the MTCR, the Wassenaar Arrangement [on Export Controls for Conventional Arms and Dual-Use Goods and Technologies] and the Australia Group [an informal forum against chemical and biological weapons].
The Week | Trip, trap, triumph


......Equally interesting is the reference in the joint statement to enhancing naval technology cooperation between the two countries. According to informed speculation, the US might now be ready to offer some critical technologies to India in the construction of its next aircraft carrier.
Chinesetakeaway: Not so coy | The Indian Express | Page 99

On defence, Modi pushed the envelope much further than previously imagined. The defence production secretary was in the US weeks before Modi's visit to set the stage. India and US have extended for another decade the landmark defence framework agreement. For the first time, US has offered India high grade technology for the next generation of Indian Navy vessels.
With Narendra Modi in driver's seat, US ties take historic turn - The Times of India


None of the above needs to be taken as absolute proof, my intention is only to show that the opinions on the visit are by no means uni-dimensional.

 

[sancho]

If you read what I said, I pointed out that it is not Modi's style.

That's your assumtion, while we know and even clearly saw at this visit, that he is putting a high priority to PR and such media chances. Public convention in the Madison Square Garden with Hollywood actors is his style, but presenting an helicopter deal with President Obama isn't? Hard to belive isn't it?

Nobody expected they would be signed during this visit, that will all happen in due course. This what is also said:

Those articles were published after the visit and even refer to the joint statement, so can't show the expectations before the visit. Check these:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/defense-deals-likely-on-agenda-as-indias-modi-visits-u-s-1411726479

India To Push Joint Weapons Development During US Visit | Defense News | defensenews.com

Exclusive - India eyes Sikorsky helicopter, other big U.S. arms buys| Reuters

US likely to revive defence trade during PM’s visit - Financial Express

As Modi plans US trip, defence on everyone’s mind | Spotlight | The Stimson Center | Pragmatic Steps for Global Security

 

[Maravan]

Russia trusted India with Nuclear air craft carrier and what did India Do ?

Yes lick boots of Russia's enemies very sad

If Russia had given us a Aircraft carrier we would always support Russian stance

Like your support to US drones, for 50 F16s?

 

[Bang Galore]

That's your assumtion, while we know and even clearly saw at this visit, that he is putting a high priority to PR and such media chances.

Pentagon’s Approval For Technology Transfer Licences To India

In what may be seen as an unprecedented move, the Pentagon has approved two technology transfer licences to India. The US Defence Department also set aside USD 20 million for strategic co-operative science and technology projects between Washington and New Delhi that were stalled in the past.

Frank Kendall, the Under-secretary (for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics) of Defence Department, said that although the Pentagon made a final decision in this regard ahead of India Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent US visit, he made the announcement during the annual gala of the US-India Business Council (USIBC) on Thursday. “What is critical now is that we agree on some projects that we can use to continue building our relationship. Good intentions must lead to tangible results, or the momentum we have built will fade,” added Kendall, also the Pentagon’s point person for the India-US Defence Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI).

Without giving details about the two licences approved by the Pentagon, Kendal stressed: “I have also set aside USD 20 million for strategic co-operative science and technology projects with India, something we have done with no other country.” Kendall, who recently visited India along with US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel, also praised the Modi administration for making necessary changes in its defence policy. “It was very clear to Secretary Hagel and me that a new wind was blowing in India – the monsoon had changed direction and intensity. Everyone we met, at all levels, was highly interested in opportunities for co-operation,” he told the press.

“Modi made it clear to Hagel that India was very interested in expanding its defence industry and increasing the level of technology that could be developed and manufactured in India. This sentiment was repeated at every level. The desire we felt to inject new momentum into this relationship and DTTI was echoed by those across the table,” said the top Pentagon official.

According to Kendall, he and his Indian counterpart Mohan Kumar decided to prepare a written framework for DTTI and meet each other in every six months to update the framework. “We also agreed that India would work to finalise approval of the renewal of the Research, Development, Test and Evaluation Memorandum of Agreement (RDT&E MoU) for signature during my November visit,” he said, adding that it is important to identify specific co-development and co-production opportunities for the successful implementation of specific science and technology projects. “I believe both the US and Indian DTTI teams concluded our meetings feeling energised, focused and optimistic about future cooperation,” stressed Kendall.

Pentagon’s Approval For Technology Transfer Licences To India | InSerbia News
Pentagon approves two technology transfer licences to India - The Times of India

 

[sancho]

Frank Kendall, the Under-secretary (for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics) of Defence Department, said that although the Pentagon made a final decision in this regard ahead of India Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent US visit, he made the announcement during the annual gala of the US-India Business Council (USIBC) on Thursday.

So that decision was not a result of the visit, which is why it wasn't even mentioned in the joint statement. Will be interesting to see what it's about, but doesn't change the fact that nothing was achived by the PM wrt defence.

 

[Kaniska]

lol you Indians think to be able to blackmail Russia for ToT in order to please India?? I think in contrary, if you get Russians pissed, they can sell China better military toys than to India to prove their displeasure...bottom line you depend on them they dont depend on you.

Oh Come on...Russia does really do not take India into account with relation to China..If India goes closer to US, then only Russia will tilt to Pakistan...China Russia relation will always favored by Russian ahead of India...Thats for sure...Money and market lures every one..