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KURUMAYA
The following analysis of Dr.Abdullah is based on a 2 hour discussion with a Uniform Personal and a senior sitting senator of PML-N who happens to be my patient(Dr.Abdullah on siasat.pk)..It looks Sharifs have pushed the situation out of their hands but that by no means will be an easy ride for IK coz of the people that were involved in rigging of Elections 2013..Let me just smmarize the whole situation and possible outcomes.
Like all other countries army do influence the politics of their country as institutionally speaking they themselves are the biggest stake holders of the country.
PPP the Blue Eyed Baby of Army But:
Before Elections 2013 there was a consensus reached between the army,saudi arab and USA that there will be Nawaz Govt in center..Army was most comfortable with PPP but due to bad performance it was impossible for them to bring bk PPP in center so army think tanks opted for PML_N as there was a deal that Army will be free to make its foreign policy and policy on WOT just like PPP days...
Double Game Policy Of Our Army:
Since yr 2000 Our Army rightly or wrongly has always kept a double faced policy for all countries be it US,Iran,Saudia,Afghanistan..Only two consistent enemies for our army are India and Israel...Similarly the only consistent friend for our Army has been China..
WHY Nawaz and PML-N:
Army under Kiyani also had no plan to do a military action in NW till the exit of US forces and therefore at that time a castrated Saudi Friend like Nawaz was a good suitable candidate for our army..Few Army Generals were very skeptical of Imran Khan and they feared that he is unreliable and if he gets his say,he will cause problems in foreign matters and they also believed that IK lacks the sense to process WOT matters and strategic patterns of the land so he should be kept away from PM seat until he learns not to poke in matters that he has no knowledge of..For Nawaz they army was given guarantee by Nawaz himself that he wont say a word in their matters..
GAMEPLAN:
The plan was to let the "Ramday Magic Cell" as they called it to rig the elections and give a simple majority to PML_N and make the independent candidates from South Punjab win instead of PPP coz after that all independent candidates were asked to join PML_N giving them a 2/3rd majority.A media grp a.k.a "Geo" was used as a facilitator in this case by PML-N and Judicary on their own to build perception of of PML-N that It will win 13 election in Punjab and center KPK by PTI and sindh by PPP you can see everyone given bone. When Fazal Ur Rehman wanted PML-N to make govt in KPK PML-N refused because it was part of bigger game to also give bone of KPK to IK to satisfy him. PML-N thinks that KPK is is very hard to run and will dent PTI...
WHERE DID IT GO WRONG :
It was all going well except that Nawaz strted to change colors on Musharraf issue and then more importantly the Saudi links of Nawaz strted to become a liability for our army and our state..Thing is that as i mentioned before our army keeps playing a double game with both Iran and Saudia but with Nawaz not more than a pet for Saudia ,the game was going all in one way..Nawaz was allowing Saudi Arab access to matters of state secret and willingly or unwillingly was playing a part in Saudi Arab's big game of Wahabi Dominance in the region..
NAWAZ Shady Dealings with Saudia:
There was a deal in the making btw Nawaz and Saudia that pissed military think tanks and that was accepting Saudi strategy for the land and in return Saudi Arab was willing to pay off our debts,pay alot of dollars and also will not only stop funding of TTP but will use its influence to sign deal with Pak Army..For Nawaz that was a good deal as he thought nothing wrong with that as idealogically Nawaz and PML_N is just like Lej i.e Hell with Shia...
ARMY FEARING SAUDI AGENDA IN PAK:
Whereas for army that was unacceptable as Army feared that a full proxy war btw Saudi Arab and Iran will strt in Pak and also the signs of emergence of ISIS in Iraq were enough for our army to know that Saudi Arab is trying to involve Pakistan in a deadly middle east zionist agenda game..The deal was called off by Army but Nawaz being unable to say NO to Saudi was still causing problems for Army..Army decided on its own to strt Zarb-e-Azb and army think tanks think Nawaz-Saudia master dog relationship now as a liability..
Geo Episode:
Another thing that hurted Nawaz-Army relationship was when Geo who was a partner in crime in May 2013 strtd its own agenda against ISI and Nawaz at that time on some stupid advice went in support of geo.The problem is that GEO,PML_N,USA,SAUDIA,ARMY,JUDICIARY till the point of 2013 were on one page on only one point agenda i.e to see PMl-N in power but after that all had their separate agendas and here all the problems came..
ILLOGICAL ARMY DEMANDS FOR NAWAZ NOW:
Nawaz visit to Saudia is the last attempt to save its govt..A clear msg has been given to Nawaz that Saudi Arab will have to guarantee that all deals and every policy matter will be discussed with army and not nawaz .Also that for next whatever time Nawaz is in power his all conversations will be taped, he will not be shared with any important inside info and instead it will all be shared with Nisar who in turn can share the limited info with PM if he likes..Its army as an institution that has strted to show lack of trust in PM and Shehbaz Sharif is very worried on these developments.
Outcomes:
1) If nawaz didnt agree to this or even if saudia didnt back off from its funding of organizations promoting their agenda ,Army will make a deal with IK ,,will let IK expose PML-N,Geo ,Judiciary,EC etc...Army will force Nawaz to call for a mid term after 1 yr and PTI will come in power in Center ,KPK and Punjab with Chaudhry Nisar joining PTI and will be CM punjab
2) If Nawaz agreed to all this insult for his sake,even then there will be a mid-term election in 1 yrs time but this time it will be minus one formula with Shehbaz Sharif in center and Ch Nisar as CM punjab...This will be the last option for PML_n as this will destroy their Kinship with hamza getting nowhere...
3) If IK tried to play hard because he is in a gud position and tried to name ex Generals involved in rigging, Army will make the whole setup go away with a national govt for three yrs and then everybody including IK will not be in picture.
4) The only way Nawaz can stay for the whole tenure is in a very unlikely scenerio and that is that somehow Nawaz convinces his Saudi friends to give guarantee to army that they are backing off from their regional agenda in Pakistan and wont be supporting a list of militant organizations..this is very unlikely as Saudis cant pull bk from their agenda just to save Nawaz ***..Reason is that Iran is also on the move and is making in roads in Pakistan for its agenda so its only a dream that Saudi Arab will leave its agenda just for one person
Thing is that next 3 yrs are very important from the strategic point of view and ARMY wants things to be in their control..Army feels that Iran interference is in their control but during last 1 year Saudi Arab involvement has increased.Army wants a civilian govt that they can trust..Army is missing Zardari these days...