Shahed-136 - Tracking usage & expanding understanding.

[MeFishToo]

Theirs no doubt they have targetted things of military value. Their are plenty of videos in the thread that can attest to that.

But I am also under the impression it is not always the case and I've seen some Apartment buildings attacked as well. Regardless, as you said it doesn't affect the front line. Ironically, everyone is looking for a super weapon, while its the simple things that would change the course. Shells, grenades, bullets, men and more shells. Oh yeah, and tanks.

They may have targetted known fuel depots or warehouses, but I actually doubt Russia has any good intel in Ukraine anymore. They cant disrupt the ukrainian military with a bunch of predestinated drones flying 150 km/h. They are only good at targetting large infrastructure not being defended.

 

[TheImmortal]

A Shahed is only useful against a somewhat big and stationary target. There is no way a Shahed is targetting a BUK system.

Lol what kind of erroneous analysis is this? Please do not speak regarding something that can easily prove you wrong with a simple google search.

A Shahed is actually built to go after high value radar systems and air defense systems using a man In loop function and its low RCS (see OSINT simulations for estimation of RCS factor below .1m2 to .01m2) with a 4 node GLNSS redundancy measure making jamming very difficult with a CEP under 5 meters. Thus any radar system can be targeted as long as precise up to date location data is provided to the drone.

Russia just uses it as a cheap cruise missile due to lack of Intel on Ukraine air defense systems and how cheap the drone (20K estimation). Do not confuse Russian tactics with the drones accuracy.

^ Testing of Shahed 136 against small target ^

^Testing of smaller delta wing (S-131) against a BUK like system in analysis by US CENTCOM^

^Iranian delta wing drones used to target Armaco in Saudi Arabia precisely hitting all major tank storages ^

 

[Hack-Hook]

You forgot to say the ukrainians blur the serial number.

why this one that actually was intercepted was not blurred and showed 1062
now if we go by 30-40 daily interception by Ukraine we must have reached that number after 1.5 month not one year . by Ukraine propaganda the number must have been 10000+
again prove my point that ukraine propaganda of the number that russia use and the number they intercept is nothing but lie

Looks more like Lancet and artillery strikes.
A Shahed is only useful against a somewhat big and stationary target. There is no way a Shahed is targetting a BUK system.

a shahed in the form of the gran that russia license produce is useful against something stationary otherwise it has been used more than twice against moving ships and also we have used it against target as big as 1.5m. its percise so the target don't need to be big

about buk system well depend , if the system operators keep the system stationary it can easily be targeted by shahed , but certainly a lancet or a version of shahed that is controlled by a mohajer-6 is a lot better .
don't forget a shahed-136 and shahed-131 can be controlled and guided toward the intended target with the help of a mohajer-6 and probably a low rcs drone like shahed-171, 161 or 191.
now i 'm not aware if iran actually proliferated that capability to Russia , maybe we did but i never saw that russian ever used such complex use of Geran-2

 

[Hack-Hook]

They may have targetted known fuel depots or warehouses, but I actually doubt Russia has any good intel in Ukraine anymore. They cant disrupt the ukrainian military with a bunch of predestinated drones flying 150 km/h. They are only good at targetting large infrastructure not being defended.

fuel depot usually come with black smoke , white smoke point to something else

Russia just uses it as a cheap cruise missile due to lack of Intel on Ukraine air defense systems and how cheap the drone (20K estimation). Do not confuse Russian tactics with the drones accuracy.

^ Testing of Shahed 136 against small target ^

a better photo for him to see how percise the drone is

it can enter your bedroom from the chimney or windows , which one the operator decide

 

[Hack-Hook]

this article explain the different version of the drone
https://english.iswnews.com/22339/military-knowledge-shahed-136-loitering-munition/

 

[Stryker1982]

Lol what kind of erroneous analysis is this? Please do not speak regarding something that can easily prove you wrong with a simple google search.

A Shahed is actually built to go after high value radar systems and air defense systems using a man In loop function and its low RCS (see OSINT simulations for estimation of RCS factor below .1m2 to .01m2) with a 4 node GLNSS redundancy measure making jamming very difficult with a CEP under 5 meters. Thus any radar system can be targeted as long as precise up to date location data is provided to the drone.

Russia just uses it as a cheap cruise missile due to lack of Intel on Ukraine air defense systems and how cheap the drone (20K estimation). Do not confuse Russian tactics with the drones accuracy.

View attachment 932124

^ Testing of Shahed 136 against small target ^

View attachment 932123

^Testing of smaller delta wing (S-131) against a BUK like system in analysis by US CENTCOM^

View attachment 932125

^Iranian delta wing drones used to target Armaco in Saudi Arabia precisely hitting all major tank storages ^

fuel depot usually come with black smoke , white smoke point to something else


a better photo for him to see how percise the drone is

it can enter your bedroom from the chimney or windows , which one the operator decide

Crazy after so many months their are some with doubts about its accuracy. The best illustrator below

it doesn’t appear that they are in possession of variants of anti-radiation and/or man-in-the-loop guidance like a Harop which would be of great use for them. That would definitely affect attrition rates of front line AD and change the balance of power on the front (not immediate but given some time).

 

[Bengal71]

Ukraine war: Gen Kyrylo Budanov promises revenge after latest Kyiv attack

The head of Ukraine's military intelligence warns of a swift response to a series of strikes on Kyiv.

www.bbc.com

News says they shot down 58 out of 59 drones. I am at a loss here what kind of AD they are using that they have in such large numbers.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Ukraine war: Gen Kyrylo Budanov promises revenge after latest Kyiv attack

The head of Ukraine's military intelligence warns of a swift response to a series of strikes on Kyiv.

www.bbc.com

News says they shot down 58 out of 59 drones. I am at a loss here what kind of AD they are using that they have in such large numbers.

as proven by serial number on the drones , Russia only used around 1000-1100 drone in all of the war . the last serial number shown was 2-3 day ago after one intercepted and the evidence of interception provided , it was 1062
it simply fake numbers by zelensky and co .

 

[Bengal71]

as proven by serial number on the drones , Russia only used around 1000-1100 drone in all of the war . the last serial number shown was 2-3 day ago after one intercepted and the evidence of interception provided , it was 1062
it simply fake numbers by zelensky and co .

I am talking about the attack yesterday that's in the news. 58 out of 59 shot down is a very high number. And to achieve such a large successful hit, they need large number of AD missiles. I don't think they have that many.

 

[Hack-Hook]

I am talking about the attack yesterday that's in the news. 58 out of 59 shot down is a very high number. And to achieve such a large successful hit, they need large number of AD missiles. I don't think they have that many.

the number are fake each day they announce between 40-60 interception.
if the numbers were tru , the seriall number must have been north of 10000 maybe 15000 , it shows the number of drone launched is only 4-5 each time not 40-50 as ukraine claim . and they never show any evidence for these claims , while they are not shy of showing evidence on killing , soldiers , destroying BMPs and Tanks or droping grenade on the medics and injured or even using ambulances for transporting soldiers (tactic France used in Algeria)

 

[MeFishToo]

Lol what kind of erroneous analysis is this? Please do not speak regarding something that can easily prove you wrong with a simple google search.

A Shahed is actually built to go after high value radar systems and air defense systems using a man In loop function and its low RCS (see OSINT simulations for estimation of RCS factor below .1m2 to .01m2) with a 4 node GLNSS redundancy measure making jamming very difficult with a CEP under 5 meters. Thus any radar system can be targeted as long as precise up to date location data is provided to the drone.

Russia just uses it as a cheap cruise missile due to lack of Intel on Ukraine air defense systems and how cheap the drone (20K estimation). Do not confuse Russian tactics with the drones accuracy.

View attachment 932124

^ Testing of Shahed 136 against small target ^

View attachment 932123

^Testing of smaller delta wing (S-131) against a BUK like system in analysis by US CENTCOM^

View attachment 932125

^Iranian delta wing drones used to target Armaco in Saudi Arabia precisely hitting all major tank storages ^

Fact is Ukraine controls the sky over ukrainian held territory.
If those thousend Shahed drone were as invincible and good as stated here, Ukraine had zero air defence left. That is clearly not the case, and the ukrainians are obviously noticed hours in advance when a Shahed is targetting something deep inside Ukraine. Its the size of a car flying low and slow. Any truckloaded anti air gun is a threat to the Shahed, not to mention Ukraine is saturated with manpads.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Fact is Ukraine controls the sky over ukrainian held territory.
If those thousend Shahed drone were as invincible and good as stated here, Ukraine had zero air defence left. That is clearly not the case, and the ukrainians are obviously noticed hours in advance when a Shahed is targetting something deep inside Ukraine. Its the size of a car flying low and slow. Any truckloaded anti air gun is a threat to the Shahed, not to mention Ukraine is saturated with manpads.

only 1062 drone launched in one year thats 3 drone / day cope with it all those interception stories were fake , all the system NATO gave Ukraine were for nothing

and interestingly there are several hundreds of video show the drone hit their target so cope with it, the drone pass the air-defense .

 

[MeFishToo]

only 1062 drone launched in one year thats 3 drone / day cope with it all those interception stories were fake , all the system NATO gave Ukraine were for nothing

and interestingly there are several hundreds of video show the drone hit their target so cope with it, the drone pass the air-defense .

The Shahed drones were identified in september 2022 and they havent been launched daily since. You purposely exaggerate in order to discredit the ukrainian succes countering the Shahed.
I guess you are one of the few actually knowing what Russia is really targetting. I have seen zero russian evidence of claimed succesful hits. All we hear is “all targets destroyed, the enemy lost 15 of this and 20 of that, all NATO equipment”.
Yes, the drones do explode on impact shot down by AA or not, and they do hit civilian infrastructure because Ukraine has to prioritize. I never said the drone is unable to reach its destination. I am saying it is unable to reach a defended target and totally unable to reach a mobile target.
Btw, targetting anything but well known stationary targets inside Ukraine requires intel, which I honestly doubt Russia has anymore.

 

[TheImmortal]

Fact is Ukraine controls the sky over ukrainian held territory.

Fact is no one knows what happens most of the time since it is illegal to film any attacks in Ukraine. We are reduced to sound clips and Ukraine propaganda.

One of first “western countries” in the world to make filming war illegal.

If those thousend Shahed drone were as invincible and good as stated here, Ukraine had zero air defence left.

The Russian version drones do not have radiation seekers. And Ukraine with the aid of NATO constantly moves it’s systems around. Nonetheless they are getting destroyed one way or another as recent Intel leaks by US soldier showed.

But lack of air defense location Intel is not the drones fault. So why blame the drone here?

That is clearly not the case, and the ukrainians are obviously noticed hours in advance when a Shahed is targetting something deep inside Ukraine.

And yet 50 drones make it deep into Ukraine routinely. If this drone is so detectable why not destroy it at the source? Are we supposed to believe the front line and beyond do not have air defense systems? Or radar? If that were true, Russian fighter jets would be pounding the fronts lines of Ukraine.

Meanwhile all TB-2’s have been destroyed by Russia and the ones left are now doing recon only. Yet nearly 1 year later S-136 drones are still hitting targets. 3 million per drone vs $20K. Seems like a cheap good investment.

It’s the size of a car flying low and slow.

Yes it’s a cheap VLO suicide drone, it’s not ment to be highly expensive or ultra high tech. Flying low makes it hard to detect via radar means. But makes it visually easier to detect.

Any truckloaded anti air gun is a threat to the Shahed, not to mention Ukraine is saturated with manpads.

And yet most documented S-136 kills have been with S-300 and other SAM based systems.

Or if you believe Ukraine Propaganda than with a jar of pickles.

 

[MeFishToo]

Fact is no one knows what happens most of the time since it is illegal to film any attacks in Ukraine. We are reduced to sound clips and Ukraine propaganda.

One of first “western countries” in the world to make filming war illegal.



The Russian version drones do not have radiation seekers. And Ukraine with the aid of NATO constantly moves it’s systems around. Nonetheless they are getting destroyed one way or another as recent Intel leaks by US soldier showed.

But lack of air defense location Intel is not the drones fault. So why blame the drone here?



And yet 50 drones make it deep into Ukraine routinely. If this drone is so detectable why not destroy it at the source? Are we supposed to believe the front line and beyond do not have air defense systems? Or radar? If that were true, Russian fighter jets would be pounding the fronts lines of Ukraine.

Meanwhile all TB-2’s have been destroyed by Russia and the ones left are now doing recon only. Yet nearly 1 year later S-136 drones are still hitting targets. 3 million per drone vs $20K. Seems like a cheap good investment.



Yes it’s a cheap VLO suicide drone, it’s not ment to be highly expensive or ultra high tech. Flying low makes it hard to detect via radar means. But makes it visually easier to detect.



And yet most documented S-136 kills have been with S-300 and other SAM based systems.

Or if you believe Ukraine Propaganda than with a jar of pickles.

A Shahed is flying slower than any target drone the germans have been firing a Gepard at for 50 years. I think its safe to believe interviewed Gepard crews when stating they only need to fire short bursts when a Shahed is within range. A mounted AA gun or machine gun is not just shooting a drone out of the sky, but it is definitely very possible to disable a Shahed with nothing but a couple of MG3s if in the right place.
I already said Ukraine have to prioritize. Russia can terrorize Ukraine with these drones, but they are not targetting militarily important structures. Its now a desperate attempt to disrupt the inevitable ukrainian offensive.

Example of Russian missile strike, probably reported as NATO vehicles destroyed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663147816431022082