Shahed-136 - Tracking usage & expanding understanding.

[TruthHurtz]

We are talking about a simple machine, we are not talking about a F-35.

Your steal the memories of a F-35 and you will have nothing. Because its software must be huge, endless to reverse engineering.

But Shaheds are simple. Ukraine can afford use own resources to reverse engineer it and search new ways to shoot them down cheaply.

Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US have had the remains of these drones for years, last time I checked they're still hitting their targets. Ukrainian military industries have also been systematically destroyed since the star of the war, they need significant foreign assistance to simply continue fighting. So I'm not particularly worried about them mass-producing Shahed copies, the west has so far failed to make cost effective suicide drones. There is also no near-term panacea for these drones, some will always get through regardless.

 

[Stryker1982]

So Ukrainian claim they downed 16 "Shaheeds" last night among the approx 30-40 that was purported to be launched.

These launched systems spread out to different areas of Ukraine, where explosions were reported in Nikoleav, Poltava, and Zapharozhia. A series of explosions disabled electricity in areas of Nikoleav region. This is in line with previous estimates that 50% are usually intercepted. Especially now that they have probably figure the optimal frequency their mobile AD systems should be operating in. If strikes are fully against energy infrastructure, these localities would already have AD protection, making interception rates higher than usual.

Some (2) caught on personal security cameras.

https://imgur.com/a/RqmkQjF

With such volume of launch, we should no longer assume the Russians are using these in small pairs or small groups but in large waves, that splinter off in different directions. This indicates both supply & logistics is secure (i.e. Russia is confident supply can keep up with usage).

If we go fully by Ukrainian numbers (exaggerated), 50% success rate is very good, and will have long term ramifications the longer the pace continues. As a matter of fact, the longer the pace continues the efficacy of AD will decrease if not replenished or replaced/added with new systems.

The Russians must be very pleased with this alternative they'd gotten their hands on. This is only 1 product, more to come.

 

[RescueRanger]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497856858173759489

Not even cell phones; Baofeng Radios. They broadcast information in the clear.

lol Russians are using 82-HP transceivers in combat?

Baofeng radios whilst cheap and reasonably well made offer no encryption at all. No wonder their SIGINT is garbage.

 

[925boy]

lol Russians are using 82-HP transceivers in combat?

trolling! -if it works whats the issue? instead of making a joke why not argue the point? that's avoidant behavior,so u know you dont have a good point

 

[Hack-Hook]

Again I don’t know all the technical details of encryption and decryption, but I would think if they handed it to the Americans they could decrypt it a lot faster than the Iranians did with their most advanced drone at the time and they were to reverse engineer a copy, I don’t get why none of these countries have a fail safe to wipe all software from these drones, if it comes out of contact from control, or is that to complicated im asking a real question because it’s something I really don’t know


Dude I’m Palestinian American.not all Americans are bad, doesn’t mean they’re all good, I have a saying don’t hate the race just dislike the person lol.

We are talking about a simple machine, we are not talking about a F-35.

Your steal the memories of a F-35 and you will have nothing. Because its software must be huge, endless to reverse engineering.

But Shaheds are simple. Ukraine can afford use own resources to reverse engineer it and search new ways to shoot them down cheaply.

Yes, they can change it.

But if they capture one mohajer-6 they can get the current key.

The current key is there, no matter how Iran hide it, it's there, it can be catched and fck up all the shaheds-136 who depend from it in that moment.

I think evil Americans are not interested in that possibility, they wont help Ukraine in that way.
Evil Americans just want a endless bloodbath in Ukraine, and test their weapons.
They dont want end the war neither efficient solutions.

So it's up to Ukrainian real patriots to stop flying pistachios using their own brain.

the encryption key is entered before mission if the mission include a Mohajer . its not entered in factory and its not a hardware , its just a string of data, old encryption key has no use

 

[raptor22]

One could argue that Putin has already lost.

Either way, Russia must've offered something sweet to the national security council if if everything the western nations have been saying is true. I suppose they have taken it upon themselves to help Russia and avoid defeat. This conflict would create major opportunities for domestic industry I think they are not willing to give up.

They are only taking about an array of drones, and now missiles, but it can be easily other simple things like shells, atgms, (which Russians would be very familiar with), radios, artillery pieces. Construction alongside their own domestic industry to shore up stock. Most ground equipment of Iran is of Russian origin anyways.

As I said it must be something very very very worthy otherwise sacrificing a nation's worldview of rejecting war and occupation is a tragedy and indeed is meaningless. it can not be Khayam Satellite as it was signed back in 2016 , can not be fighter jet as Russia can not supply its own ... I hope at least it'd be something crucial about engine or Alloy for our internal project.
On drones, we already denied the presence of them there and probably would get sanctions for it while Turkey (Despite Ukraine trashed its drones) would find more markets. I agree it could be an advertisement for our military industry

what I can not get is why China ain't providing anything for Russia to avoid defeat ... even China:

"...They threw a lifeline to Europe amid its energy crisis by reselling unneeded LNG purchased from Russia. In August, an estimated more than 4 million tons of Chinese LNG was resold — or roughly 7% of Europe's imports in the first half of the year.."​

They just ended under pretext of winter.

Currently, the more this war continues, the more EU will fall into recession. their society has truly divided, people have already started rebellion against anti-Russia officials, so all of the "we will support Ukraine forever" is pure blabbering. liz truss was just the beginning. in long term strategy, Russia is gaining more.

The same neutral stance guided us to complete surrender to both sides in the world wars. One could argue that it was because of Iranian army's weakness during that time, it is true. Point is, despite the fact that Iran currently is a powerhouse in own region, the number of enemies leaves us in the same condition. Turkey is a NATO member state, Arab kingdoms are our sworn enemies and others are the 'Yes sir' to USA.

Helping Russia as a nuclear powerhouse and a major global power strengthens Iran without forcing us into suggesting global powers with huge concessions. It weakens NATO, on the other hand, Russia is intervening in Arab-USA relations.

Without nuclear edge, we were doomed but thanks to all the sacrifices that our nation has made, we will keep our independence beside helping our true friends which will eventually strengthen ourselves. What you said is true in case of China, they have some dose of globalism among their politicians but Russia is a different case.

What you said about Russian operation in Europe was an other wrong assessment. It was like saying that Iran is going to occupy every house in the world where Shias are present or Persian speaking people live there or where there exists Iranic people.

The stroy of Neo NAZIs rising in Europe and AngloSaxon dominated countries is completely true. They hate Russians to the core and as one of Ukrainian offucials said tge goal is annihiliation of every Russian speaking person in Ukraine, what Russia wants is strengthening position of Russian ethnics, in fact, they want to avoid extinction of Russ people by gaining respect of western nations/states. That way, they want to provide Russian ethnics with Russian umbrella.

And still it's called occupation, if not then why our representative was absent & didn't cast Iran vote?
About gas, we should have marketed our gas now in Europe ... what Russia crapping EU and gaining in return could bring for us? back in 2014 and after annexation of Crime their relations got muddy but again restored later on n a way that gas pipelines got double.

 

[BHAN85]

Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US have had the remains of these drones for years, last time I checked they're still hitting their targets. Ukrainian military industries have also been systematically destroyed since the star of the war, they need significant foreign assistance to simply continue fighting. So I'm not particularly worried about them mass-producing Shahed copies, the west has so far failed to make cost effective suicide drones. There is also no near-term panacea for these drones, some will always get through regardless.

All those countries have huge military budgets, they dont need to think in cheap solutions, even it's better for them think in solutions that just will shoot down every flying thing, so they will be protected no matter how the enemy will change the pieces/software.

the encryption key is entered before mission if the mission include a Mohajer . its not entered in factory and its not a hardware , its just a string of data, old encryption key has no use

Well and what I said?

The current key is useful to control the flying drones in that moment. Just capture one and shoot them remotely the rest.

And that's the best of cases.

Because in practice, people trend is to be less careful if they underestimate the enemy (like the Americans drones in Iraq transmiting live video signal without encryption by satellite, just to achieve compatibility between allies and because they believed the enemy will know nothing).

 

[mohsen]

And still it's called occupation, if not then why our representative was absent & didn't cast Iran vote?
About gas, we should have marketed our gas now in Europe ... what Russia crapping EU and gaining in return could bring for us? back in 2014 and after annexation of Crime their relations got muddy but again restored later on n a way that gas pipelines got double.

So what if it's called occupation, even Arab countries and their supporters say the same thing about our Islands. west is the biggest occupier and supporter of occupation.


Today they may buy our gas, but later would sanction us and use it as leverage again, and if as you say their relation improves again, then they will have economical motivation as well, beside their enmity toward Iran.

What we get from this war? high oil and gas prices, enough customers without the need for JCPOA, a market for our military and civilian products, (basically MAPNA replaced siemens in Russia), plus

our enemies are busy somewhere else, and will have less resources to engage with us, they are weakened and less capable of enforcing their sanctions against us. the pro-Russia officials will be in our favor too. plus many more, but I think it's enough for now.

 

[aziqbal]

Shahid 136 has knocked out 35% of power in Ukraine

they maybe shooting them down but many are getting through

much much cheaper than Kaliber cruise missile or any other Russian cruise missile or even ballistic missiles or Iskander

Russia basically saving millions by using Iran drone

 

[925boy]

they maybe shooting them down but many are getting through

Fully agree. i feel very strongly that Ukraine isnt shooting down more than 20-30% of these drones...50% is just too high, UAF is low on AD missiles, from sending Mig-29s to chase Shahed-136s

much much cheaper than Kaliber cruise missile or any other Russian cruise missile or even ballistic missiles or Iskander

The Iranian Fateh-110s and Zolfaqars that Russia recently bought are also cheaper than Russian cruise missiles or ballistic missiles

Russia basically saving millions by using Iran drone

Agreed

 

[aziqbal]

Win win for Iran

Russia must be paying top dollar for these drones and also in high numbers in short term

And in future long term Russian won’t forget this favour

Fully agree. i feel very strongly that Ukraine isnt shooting down more than 20-30% of these drones...50% is just too high, UAF is low on AD missiles, from sending Mig-29s to chase Shahed-136s

The Iranian Fateh-110s and Zolfaqars that Russia recently bought are also cheaper than Russian cruise missiles or ballistic missiles

Agreed

Is it agreed that Fateh 110 is delivered ?

 

[925boy]

Is it agreed that Fateh 110 is delivered ?

Between the surplus or rumours about the transfer AND recently increased Iranian cargo flights to Russia, yes, its more or less a fact now.

 

[aziqbal]

Between the surplus or rumours about the transfer AND recently increased Iranian cargo flights to Russia, yes, its more or less a fact now.

yes I just read that last 2 days large number of Russian Il-76 arrived at Yazd province which is home to many Iranian Aerospace companies

could be carrying back the Fateh 110 + Zulfaghar

 

[925boy]

yes I just read that last 2 days large number of Russian Il-76 arrived at Yazd province which is home to many Iranian Aerospace companies

True, and there is also a possible chance that those Russian airforce cargo planes that arrived in Yazd province were loaded with Su-35s, the ones Egypt didnt want.

could be carrying back the Fateh 110 + Zulfaghar

Very likely

 

[Stryker1982]

yes I just read that last 2 days large number of Russian Il-76 arrived at Yazd province which is home to many Iranian Aerospace companies

could be carrying back the Fateh 110 + Zulfaghar

I give western media benefit of the doubt since they were right about the drone deliveries.

At least the source they used was right. They claimed the missiles and drones were part of the single contract that was signed