Sell JF-17 to African countries

[MastanKhan]

I was wondering why PAF doesn’t sell its entire fleet of 50 ~ 80 odd JF-17 block 1s to African countries after overhaul and upgrade of radar and avionics to block 1.5 standards. At let’s say 10 million a piece+ spares and weapons. These air forces like Congo etc. will use them for ground attack and some air defence.

this would free up resources to buy more block 3s and 4s

k

Hi,

If you were wondering then off course you did not know that you have to have the blessings of the western countries to do weapons business unless you are a super power---.

 

[Khan vilatey]

Bhai saheb.
On the one hand we have a shortage of 4th generation planes, cannot replace more than 1 squadron a year, still hace a 100 plus legacy fighters and you want to sell your 4th generation fighter to them. What will you replace them with when your yearly output to date is 12 planes as per PAF plans and statements.
Bhai khairiyat? Can you explain the logic again in light of the information above.
A

well Bhai here is my logic

jf-17 block 1 were 3.5 gen
Jf-17 block 2 were 4 gen
Jf-17 block 3 are 4.5 gen
Jf-17 block 4 will be inshallah 4.5 gen + with hopefully a bigger fuselage with maybe 2 engines ………strike version …… I can dream

so I think we have the ability to make 24-30 aircrafts now and when the second line is operational probably go up to 40 aircraft / year. I base this on multiple Air Force officials interviews on the internet .
So why pay for 3 gen aircraft like f-7pg and jf-17 block 1s. We could invest the savings towards busying more strike platforms and building more jf-17 block 3s and block 3d ( double seat versions )

k

 

[jupiter2007]

well Bhai here is my logic

jf-17 block 1 were 3.5 gen
Jf-17 block 2 were 4 gen
Jf-17 block 3 are 4.5 gen
Jf-17 block 4 will be inshallah 4.5 gen + with hopefully a bigger fuselage with maybe 2 engines ………strike version …… I can dream

so I think we have the ability to make 24-30 aircrafts now and when the second line is operational probably go up to 40 aircraft / year. I base this on multiple Air Force officials interviews on the internet .
So why pay for 3 gen aircraft like f-7pg and jf-17 block 1s. We could invest the savings towards busying more strike platforms and building more jf-17 block 3s and block 3d ( double seat versions )

k

 

[MH.Yang]

If I don't get it wrong, are you hating JF17b1s? They are 4G fighters!
Why do you sell them when Pakistan and India have a large number of 3G fighters? At least you can send them to the Western Theater as a reserve.

 

[Signalian]

I was wondering why PAF doesn’t sell its entire fleet of 50 ~ 80 odd JF-17 block 1s to African countries after overhaul and upgrade of radar and avionics to block 1.5 standards. At let’s say 10 million a piece+ spares and weapons. These air forces like Congo etc. will use them for ground attack and some air defence.

this would free up resources to buy more block 3s and 4s

k

Why shouldn't they buy and operate drones instead ?

 

[iLION12345_1]

If I don't get it wrong, are you hating JF17b1s? They are 4G fighters!
Why do you sell them when Pakistan and India have a large number of 3G fighters? At least you can send them to the Western Theater as a reserve.

It’s called being incredibly stupid and doing zero research.

So Apparently Block 1 with the same Radar, same engine, same RCS, same carrying capacity, same missiles and hence same BVR range, same HUD, same MAWS, same RWR, same weight, same TWR and same range as block 2 is 3.5 Gen but block 2 is 4th Gen. Hilarious.

Funnier still, All/most block 1s have already been upgraded to block 2 considering it was a rather minor upgrade (as compared to block 3), so I don’t know what these people are on about.
Nobody wants those JF-17s, not because they’re bad, but because no random African country has the money, the resources, the expertise or the need for these aircraft, they’re literally the second most capable aircraft in the PAF and these people want to get rid of them.

This thread should be closed for being useless.

 

[kingQamaR]

Apart from, South Africa and Nigeria 2 largest economies in Africa who can afford to buy it of furthering there interests

Sadly I can not see any other African states, North African blocks have gone for USA , France Russia they were the real big customers who could spend big

 

[araz]

well Bhai here is my logic

jf-17 block 1 were 3.5 gen
Jf-17 block 2 were 4 gen
Jf-17 block 3 are 4.5 gen
Jf-17 block 4 will be inshallah 4.5 gen + with hopefully a bigger fuselage with maybe 2 engines ………strike version …… I can dream

so I think we have the ability to make 24-30 aircrafts now and when the second line is operational probably go up to 40 aircraft / year. I base this on multiple Air Force officials interviews on the internet .
So why pay for 3 gen aircraft like f-7pg and jf-17 block 1s. We could invest the savings towards busying more strike platforms and building more jf-17 block 3s and block 3d ( double seat versions )

k

There is , to my understanding, no block 1 left as they have been/ will be converted to block 2 standard. With PAC beginning to make AAESA Radars it is plausible they will get AESA radars as well. Contrary to your statement there is not going to be any block 4 twin engined enlarged plane. However how much development time do you think that would require as it would simply be a newer plane. The Chinese will not help you as there is no niche market for a twin engined fighter, whereas there is plenty for a light fighter. PAC will struggle to create a new fighter and the funding for it is not there. Please also tell us/what the budget and time scales of this project will be? I reckon 10 yrs and 2-5 billion dollars at least. So in the interim what will be PAF flying?
Block 4 is still going to be a light/ medium weight sinvle engined fighter as PAC/CATIC generally will not change a winning formula . If the rumours are true then J10 is being acquired in the medium weight category reflecting this need to replace fighters quickly as PAC cannot build them quickly enough( probably both finance and capacity). So your argument does not hold.
As a matter of principle if you concentrate on one factor at a time your argument will be more sound ( for instance concentrating on need vs demand). In research you try and compare 2 factors only as incorporating 3 or more introduces many more variables which make research complex and material unweildy.
Lastly please concentrate on factors which are known rather than pipe dreams like a twin engined PAC fighter which is no where in sight. I dont have much time left on this f9rum or perhaps in this world but want to teach you young brothers of mine how to formulate a sound argument. Please consider my advice as advice of an older brother towards a younger one.
Kind regards.
A

 

[araz]

Block 1s are cannon fodder. I had heard we could produce 25/ year now due to second production line ?

k

There is no second line in PAC. There is rumoured to be one in China. As for PAC they are tooled up for block3 . You cannot simply go back and produce 1s as it will require rejigging. I think retooling and rejigging takes 4 to 6 months ( not entirely sure but can be confirmed by more knowledgeable brothers) so if you want to produce block 1s again production will be halted while you rejigg.
So the likelihood is you will have the current air frame even if you wanted to replace fighters.
Please also look at the life of the air frame of block 1. From memory it is 4000hrs . In 12 years (2009 to 2021) at 180 hrs a year you have already consumed half the life. How much will the cost of a 2k hrs frame life plane be and how much benefit will you get out of it.
You have still not considered how PAF will replace its legacy fighters? We still have more than 100 to replace. With threat sitting with aggressive intentions known to all burning with rage over the smack on the face it got in 2019 how do you think they will react when your squadron strength depletes as you sell these fighters to African countries most of whom will still require loans to pay for them.
A

 

[IbnAbdullah]

Salaam

I dont have much time left on this f9rum or perhaps in this world but want to teach you young brothers of mine how to formulate a sound argument.

I hope everything okay bro.

 

[araz]

How will you do that without major structural upgrades, will it be cheaper than buying a brand new jf-17 block 3 ???? While we do wait for this upgrade to block 1. We will incur the cost of maintain these aircraft.

why not sell these for 25 ish million each and from the money build more block 3s and upgrade block 2s?

Why not build up to 40 jf-17s a year????
k

Bhai
Most upgrades of block 1 to 2 are being done as a part of midlife upgrade. I suspect these costs are incorporated into the plan. If 09and10 fighters got upgraded in 18/19, we would have upgraded most of them if not all by now. Secondly block30/40 C/D without upgrade would be 10 to 20 million a pop. How are you assuming 25 million for JFT. It would be closer to 8 to 10 million.
Upgrading a assembly line to 40 planes a year is possible but not plausible financially and economically. For instance extra jigs would be required and manpower would be increased to incur costs. When your needs are fulfilled assuming the govt can fork out the additional 30 million a plane that you are suggesting and the PAF can absorb the 40 planes a year, what do you do with the extra manpower and jigs and other equipment? How do you pay the costs for the upkeep of this manpower. We dont have many projects running that these people can be diverted into. Also increasing numbers means possible compromises on quality. These are all consideration before admin before you chalk out a production map for manufacturing that you have not considered at all.
A
[QUOTE="IbnAbdullah,
I hope everything okay bro.
[/QUOTE]
Wa AlaikumAs asalam wa Rehmatullahe
Just getting old and now periretirement. Idont know how long my interest will last. Have the usual diseases afflicting 60+ people .
A

 

[araz]

what you will say about remaining j-7s sir ? i think pakistna need 100 more jets to cover our own arse . rather then dreaming to sale new jets to others . never in history of pakistna we have sale such young used planes . not even rich UAE did it

Ps Are gone barring a few FTs. PGs are next in line for replacement along with older M3/5s. They should be gone in the next 2 to 3 years. Upgraded M3/5s will remain in the niche CAS till replaced by ???? Drones and JFTs but possibly mid to late 20s.
A

 

[Imran Khan]

Ps Are gone barring a few FTs. PGs are next in line for replacement along with older M3/5s. They should be gone in the next 2 to 3 years. Upgraded M3/5s will remain in the niche CAS till replaced by ???? Drones and JFTs but possibly mid to late 20s.
A

i think we should nto have any m3 m5 PGs in invantory at 2025 in active duties . i still remember how rusty our AF was when first sqn of JFT was reached peshawar to replace A5s .

 

[Khan vilatey]

There is , to my understanding, no block 1 left as they have been/ will be converted to block 2 standard. With PAC beginning to make AAESA Radars it is plausible they will get AESA radars as well. Contrary to your statement there is not going to be any block 4 twin engined enlarged plane. However how much development time do you think that would require as it would simply be a newer plane. The Chinese will not help you as there is no niche market for a twin engined fighter, whereas there is plenty for a light fighter. PAC will struggle to create a new fighter and the funding for it is not there. Please also tell us/what the budget and time scales of this project will be? I reckon 10 yrs and 2-5 billion dollars at least. So in the interim what will be PAF flying?
Block 4 is still going to be a light/ medium weight sinvle engined fighter as PAC/CATIC generally will not change a winning formula . If the rumours are true then J10 is being acquired in the medium weight category reflecting this need to replace fighters quickly as PAC cannot build them quickly enough( probably both finance and capacity). So your argument does not hold.
As a matter of principle if you concentrate on one factor at a time your argument will be more sound ( for instance concentrating on need vs demand). In research you try and compare 2 factors only as incorporating 3 or more introduces many more variables which make research complex and material unweildy.
Lastly please concentrate on factors which are known rather than pipe dreams like a twin engined PAC fighter which is no where in sight. I dont have much time left on this f9rum or perhaps in this world but want to teach you young brothers of mine how to formulate a sound argument. Please consider my advice as advice of an older brother towards a younger one.
Kind regards.
A

thank you brother for taking the time out and helping me improve my thinking and articulation. I am greatfull for the advice and guidance. I wish you a long and happy life and hope that you will continue to provide us guidance for years to come.

Bhai
Most upgrades of block 1 to 2 are being done as a part of midlife upgrade. I suspect these costs are incorporated into the plan. If 09and10 fighters got upgraded in 18/19, we would have upgraded most of them if not all by now. Secondly block30/40 C/D without upgrade would be 10 to 20 million a pop. How are you assuming 25 million for JFT. It would be closer to 8 to 10 million.
Upgrading a assembly line to 40 planes a year is possible but not plausible financially and economically. For instance extra jigs would be required and manpower would be increased to incur costs. When your needs are fulfilled assuming the govt can fork out the additional 30 million a plane that you are suggesting and the PAF can absorb the 40 planes a year, what do you do with the extra manpower and jigs and other equipment? How do you pay the costs for the upkeep of this manpower. We dont have many projects running that these people can be diverted into. Also increasing numbers means possible compromises on quality. These are all consideration before admin before you chalk out a production map for manufacturing that you have not considered at all.
A
[QUOTE="IbnAbdullah,
I hope everything okay bro.

Wa AlaikumAs asalam wa Rehmatullahe
Just getting old and now periretirement. Idont know how long my interest will last. Have the usual diseases afflicting 60+ people .
A
[/QUOTE]

I was clearly misinformed, I did not know or hear of upgrades for block 1s to block 2 standards with possibility the smaller AESA radar. If this is happening than all power to Pakistan.

I am not sure that we can do a block 2 -3 upgrade as the RWR sensors , nose cone and the significantly higher use of composites in the block 3 I.e. the structural upgrades that allow a chin mounted probe, ability to carry dual racks and more payloads etc. will not be possible at an economical cost. So I am assuming that the best we can do with block 2 and 1 is a block 2.5 version with a smaller AESA radar maybe upgrade to HUD and EW/ defensive suite.

I would also like to unpack the increased build line argument. 40 ish planes will work as the cost of labor is a fixed cost as the workers are not paid more than regular PAF staff. The cost of the jigs is also a fixed cost but the higher number of manufacturing will significantly lower the cost of production due to economies of scale. I was unable to find the news article but Kamran did clear land to build more enclosures at the factory . The tender was in the news 🗞 this could be for upgrade lines or more aircraft manufacturing. See we do have to fulfill additional foreign orders. Iraq and Qatar wants it now , hopefully Nigeria. Iran somemore South American countries ……basically any one who flies a 60-80s tech would want these upgrades.

I would agree with you that twin engined strike fighter is my pipe dream instigated by the entry in the ministries production document referring to a twin engined JF-17.

either way we do need a strike aircrafts to replace the mirages.J-10c may not be the right platforms for this maybe j-31 or j-20s ??? Would love to hear your views

finally I want to reiterate that I am truly greatfull and thankful brother, for taking time out and helping me improve my thinking and articulation. I am greatfull for the advice and guidance. I wish you a long and happy life and hope that you will continue to provide us guidance for years to come.

K

 

[Ali_Baba]

I was wondering why PAF doesn’t sell its entire fleet of 50 ~ 80 odd JF-17 block 1s to African countries after overhaul and upgrade of radar and avionics to block 1.5 standards. At let’s say 10 million a piece+ spares and weapons. These air forces like Congo etc. will use them for ground attack and some air defence.

this would free up resources to buy more block 3s and 4s

k

Pakistan is still flying 50 year old relics 3rd Gen Mirage relics that should have been turned into Coke Cans 20 years ago .... and instead you want them to sell a modern 4th gen fighter first?

Lead with "Pakistan should sell used Mirages to African countries", it would make more sense as a topic.

Btw - there are will be virtually no Block 1 JF17s left - as they all will be upgraded to Block II ...