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Second Take on Pakistan-Saudi Loans

They will not, but was this request made by them during the pandemic and its consequences or before that? What was the context, was it just another everyday statement or was it in context of a big meeting which was, already, being seen by many here as a parallel to OIC. Pakistan had good relations with these countries before too but they never made mention of that then. So, why now?
And did the Saudi Foreign Minister say: "Pakistan needs to stop dragging its feet, they must scale down their relations with Turkey, Malaysia, or Iran, or we will go ahead without them."
As far as I am aware, they still have foreign currency reserves of 200-300 billion dollars. They don't need our money. They are trying to use it to leverage and control our foreign policy.
That is why Pakistan has thrown it back in their face.
Pakistani foreign policy should be for and in the interests of Pakistan, not Saudi Arabia.
 
My earlier post might seem Harsh but thats the truth. This is not King faisal , this is MBS. Its a two way street but not at the expense of our national interest. The Saudis are not in such bad shape that they have to ask for billion dollar back from us. They have billions of investment in US treasuries and other countries. US sustain trillion dollar deficit Yet pour billions in aid. And we were asking for loans not aid which they promised. I guess that explains the gravity of current situation ,,, its better we think as pakistanis.
Once again,

Do research on the “Type” of economy, Compare USA with KSA, Oil is the key to your answer
 
My earlier post might seem Harsh but thats the truth. This is not King faisal , this is MBS. Its a two way street but not at the expense of our national interest. The Saudis are not in such bad shape that they have to ask for billion dollar back from us. They have billions of investment in US treasuries and other countries. US sustain trillion dollar deficit Yet pour billions in aid. And we were asking for loans not aid which they promised. I guess that explains the gravity of current situation ,,, its better we think as pakistanis.

A meeting on Kashmir in OIC which will do practically nothing and will only be the equivalent of brownie points for the domestic audience, is now our biggest national interest?
And, do you genuinely think that Saudi Arabia pulled out their loan to annoy Pakistan? If you think they pulled it out due to the rebuke by our Foreign Minister then they had the right. Such rebukes have caused wars in history. As for the deferred payments, they were on hold for two months, so it is obvious they're struggling. They have no hostilities with Pakistan, rather a time-tested practical alliance.

This loan is somewhat of aid. Our economy was dying and not everyone can so quickly finance such large loans without conditions.

As for the USA, I think what you're making mention of is their debt. If they had a trillion-dollar deficit in paying their yearly financial responsibilities, they wouldn't exist.
 
1. They want the influence and were confident of their influence, there is no doubt about that, and that is why they're feeling the heat now. Given the tough circumstances as of now, the next time they won't throw in such a tantrum, that's my analysis.

2. Silence obviously means one thing, that the option is still being considered and is on the tables. It hasn't been abandoned yet, otherwise, a straight rejection would've been given. But they don't want to do that to Pakistan. Most of the finance-based news outlets stated that Saudi Arabia, with Aramco as its backbone, has high optimism for the third and fourth quarters of the year and hopes to bounce back from the severe crisis as countries liftback their lockdowns and import oil as per demand. One of their ministers said that they're hoping, and waiting, for positive indicators soon. So, they might just be waiting. I think it's the fault of SMQ that he made those statements, he is responsible for what he said.

3. Saudi Arabia is in a crisis, and you know it when their oil export profits plunge over 50%, they're being force to borrow and eat up reserves, and the IMF, World Bank, among other organizations are predicting a contraction of their economy by over -5% which is the sharpest since 4 or 5 decades.

4. Let us just assume, against all odds and evidence, that Saudi Arabia for some insane reason doesn't want to think about its economy during an economic crisis but rather is more concerned with annoying Pakistan, a country it considers a friend. Even then, these statements by SMQ, with such rebuke, are resentful because you have more to lose than to gain from these.

Bro I think you missed the part where Saudis are going to invest 15 billion dollars in India (Reliance). That's usually not the norm in countries going through financial crisis??
SMQ said what needed to be said a long time ago. His statement was related to OIC foreign ministers conference. Connecting this with one billion dollar return and oil on deferred payments are just assumptions.
They are clearly trying to please India. Its so obvious what Saudi and UAE are doing. Just go through the events for the past one year.
 
I think Saudis believe that Iran China deal of 400 billions was not possible without Pakistan so that's why they are not happy with Pakistan
 
As far as I am aware, they still have foreign currency reserves of 200-300 billion dollars. They don't need our money. They are trying to use it to leverage and control our foreign policy.
That is why Pakistan has thrown it back in their face.
Pakistani foreign policy should be for and in the interests of Pakistan, not Saudi Arabia.

Chinese foreign currency reserves stand at $3.1 trillion. If China wanted, they could wipe off our debt or easily given us the loan that Saudi Arabia gave us, or IMF gave us. But that isn't how it works, does it?
 
A meeting on Kashmir in OIC which will do practically nothing and will only be the equivalent of brownie points for the domestic audience, is now our biggest national interest?
And, do you genuinely think that Saudi Arabia pulled out their loan to annoy Pakistan? If you think they pulled it out due to the rebuke by our Foreign Minister then they had the right. Such rebukes have caused wars in history. As for the deferred payments, they were on hold for two months, so it is obvious they're struggling. They have no hostilities with Pakistan, rather a time-tested practical alliance.

This loan is somewhat of aid. Our economy was dying and not everyone can so quickly finance such large loans without conditions.

As for the USA, I think what you're making mention of is their debt. If they had a trillion-dollar deficit in paying their yearly financial responsibilities, they wouldn't exist.
 
Bro I think you missed the part where Saudis are going to invest 15 billion dollars in India (Reliance). That's usually not the norm in countries going through financial crisis??
SMQ said what needed to be said a long time ago. His statement was related to OIC foreign ministers conference. Connecting this with one billion dollar return and oil on deferred payments are just assumptions.
They are clearly trying to please India. Its so obvious what Saudi and UAE are doing. Just go through the events for the past one year.

Firstly, that deal was set in motion last year. Before this whole debacle.
This is the latest news, and the article provides excellent hints as to why this is in Saudi interest.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/aramco-still-aims-for-us15b-investment-in-india’s-reliance

"The Reliance transaction would help Aramco reach its goal of more than doubling refining capacity to between 8 million and 10 million barrels a day. The Saudi firm had refining capacity of 3.6 million barrels a day at the end of last year, including wholly-owned plants and stakes in joint ventures. The gross capacity of facilities in which Aramco has stakes was 6.4 million barrels daily."

from financial post
 
I have seen a lot of threads popping up on this forum, and I feel that they were mostly emotional rather than critical of the reality, only focusing on our view of the whole situation. In different words, to sum up my point, we have failed to realize that the repayment of a loan and the silence on renewing the oil-on-deferred-payments could be a consequence of the deep pile of sh!t that Saudi Arabia is in right now. So, I think it's important to talk about a few things and understand all of this from Saudi Arabia's perspective.

View attachment 660152

Domestic Economy
Honestly, their economy is not looking good right now. They have been struggling a bit due to the changing mobility dynamics around the world, and also the recent hit on oil prices and demand for oil due to the pandemic. Here are some factors which indicate that their economy isn't doing as well as they would like.

- The International Monetary Fund warned that the economy of Saudi Arabia could actually shrink by -6.8% in 2020. It already shrank by -1% in the first quarter.
- Saudi Aramco, the backbone of the country, reported very recently that it took a hit this year due to the pandemic, as its profit plunged by 73%. This implies that Saudi Arabia has seriously struggled with oil exports due to the pandemic. We're talking billions of dollars near the mark of $100 billion.
- Saudi Arabia, only a couple years back introduced a domestic VAT of 5%, and now this year, in May, tripled it to 15%.
- Just very recently, Saudi Arabia announced it will consider an asset sale, as well as introducing an income tax on its citizens in the Kingdom.
- Economic indicators show that inflation has been on a slow and steady rise. Petrol is going up prices domestically, and it will probably go higher since UAE also pumped its domestic petrol prices up significantly as well.
- The government had announced austerity measures in April it will take to keep the economy afloat during the crisis.
- This year, Saudi Arabia, so far posted a deficit of about $29 billion. It has been borrowing from the international, as well as the domestic market, in addition to using $13 billion from its reserves.
- Saudi Arabia is considering privatizing sectors 'previously not considered' this year.
- Let's not forget the war they are in, it costs. A lot.

Why is this happening?
Well, mostly because we have to realize that the entire economy of Saudi Arabia floats on the insane export of oil and oil products. This is bad in general, especially when the world is working towards the better use of renewable energy, which is why the new Prince has been trying to diversify their financial dependency on other areas as well, such as tourism. But Saudi Arabia hasn't yet reached such a point where it can 'live' without oil, or rather not even feel the impact if it loses some exports of oil. There's a pandemic going on, so what do we all expect. Of course, the oil exports would take a hit. In fact, at one point the oil prices dipped below zero, and for a country whose economy relies on oil export... well you know how well that fares for them. On top of that, let's not forget that the country has entered a big war which it cannot pull out of, and it's costing them, for the war machinery and American assistance, both.

What does this mean?
With the current situation of their economy, is it really that far fetched to think that they would ask for the reimbursement of a part of their loan, and be silent on the agreement for deferred payments on oil? Also, I want to make a small correction. According to news reports, the agreement was set to be renewed two months ago but the response has only been silence so far (not rejection), which means that this cannot be in reaction to Shah Mehmood Qureshi's comments which were made in his personal capacity only a few days ago.

Okay, but what about them not convening the FM meeting on Kashmir via OIC?
You have to understand that India is the 3rd or 4th largest importer of oil from Saudi Arabia. The export of oil from Saudi Arabia to India is worth $16.8 billion. They cannot lose a part of this at a point in time which is so crucial for their economy. I normally say that trade is not a favor, but a necessity; but over here, oil is a commodity that so many other countries export, and at competitive pricing too, India can choose another exporter, so India does have a degree of leverage at this point in time, especially with Iraq slowly stabilizing around the corner.

Conclusion
I want you to genuinely think from their perspective and see if their actions are really that uncalled for.
Secondly, I think it is a deep blunder by Pakistan to keep on approaching Saudi Arabia to convene an OIC meeting on Kashmir, why can't Pakistan call for a meeting on its own or rather approach the impartial persons with high positions in OIC to convene a meeting so that no one country is blamed. It is rather obvious that for Saudi Arabia to call for such a meeting would put the country in an awkward position.
Lastly, Shah Mehmood Qureshi has a calm and sophisticated personality but I think that his recent statements, even in his personal capacity, were absolutely nonsense. Let me explain why. As I said, Pakistan should be approaching the president or secretary-general of OIC, not a country. Also, calling for an FM meeting in OIC won't liberate Kashmir; if this is about narrative then an OIC meeting doesn't help that either because no one cares about OIC including its own member countries, and just like how narrative of Palestine hasn't helped Palestine despite the popularity and mass information available, it won't help Kashmir. So, for absolutely nothing, we are breaking off our relations with a rather important country. By not saying these statements, we had nothing to lose, actually probably something to gain in the future, but by saying these statements, we have everything to lose.

That's my opinion. Data were taken from various finance-based news outlets.
Someone please give this guy a positive rating, Much needed post, “Another perspective”
 
Firstly, that deal was set in motion last year. Before this whole debacle.
This is the latest news, and the article provides excellent hints as to why this is in Saudi interest.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/aramco-still-aims-for-us15b-investment-in-india’s-reliance

"The Reliance transaction would help Aramco reach its goal of more than doubling refining capacity to between 8 million and 10 million barrels a day. The Saudi firm had refining capacity of 3.6 million barrels a day at the end of last year, including wholly-owned plants and stakes in joint ventures. The gross capacity of facilities in which Aramco has stakes was 6.4 million barrels daily."

from financial post
What about buying 1.5 billion dollars worth of shares in Jio ?
The reason is simple Saudi Arabia do not want to antagonize India. Its so obvious.
Saudi Arabia requested Pakistan to not attend Summit in Malaysia. In turn it promised to convene a foreign ministers conference at OIC and now is withdrawing from it to appease India. What SMQ said was spot on. Just look at the behavior of UAE.
 
Anyways its better Pak-Saudia sort out some of their grievance against each other asap. Mistrust shouldn't increase further.

That would be the best. Mistrust between two important allies who have supported each other through history is a big, big loss.

There needs to be a meeting, and misunderstandings need to be sorted out, while things blurry should become clear.
 
It's not a hidden fact. It's a rumor actually. Saudi's don't need a nuclear umbrella from Pakistan when the USA is the guarantor of their sovereignty and has the practical ability with many military bases in the Middle East. Secondly, any sane mind will tell you that Pakistan won't nuke Iran even if Iran were to suddenly invade Saudi Arabia which it won't. Saudi Arabia has no threat of invasion from any country.

When did i say Pakistan ever agreed to nuke Iran in the first Place. Saudis are a paranoid bunch and they did pay us billions you can refer yourself to several documentaries and book on the topic. As for Iran and Saudia it is same case as with Pakistan and India. We didnt get nukes to nuke India but to make sure other side never used it on us. It is a strategic deterrent and weapon of last resort. As for American providing security to Saudis it is like asking wolf to guard the hen house. Where were American during Yemen war? Where were Americans when their strategic oil facilities were attacked by cruise missile and drones? It is easy to say other will provide to security but that is just total load of crap. Turks learned it the hard way after NATO which was guarantor of their security started funding the same terrorist PKK PKD KURDS who killed thousands of Turks.
 
What about buying 1.5 billion dollars worth of shares in Jio ?
The reason is simple Saudi Arabia do not want to antagonize India. Its so obvious.
Saudi Arabia requested Pakistan to not attend Summit in Malaysia. In turn it promised to convene a foreign ministers conference at OIC and now is withdrawing from it to appease India. What SMQ said was spot on. Just look at the behavior of UAE.

UAE is in a completely different ballgame. I have no excuses for them.

All countries have an investment fund and look to use it for investments which will pay off for them of course. Jio is one of those smart investments in which Google, Facebook among other giants invested. Obviously, long term payoff.
 
When did i say Pakistan ever agreed to nuke Iran in the first Place. Saudis are a paranoid bunch and they did pay us billions you can refer yourself to several documentaries and book on the topic. As for Iran and Saudia it is same case as with Pakistan and India. We didnt get nukes to nuke India but to make sure other side never used it on us. It is a strategic deterrent and weapon of last resort. As for American providing security to Saudis it is like asking wolf to guard the hen house. Where were American during Yemen war? Where were Americans when their strategic oil facilities were attacked by cruise missile and drones? It is easy to say other will provide to security but that is just total load of crap. Turks learned it the hard way after NATO which was guarantor of their security started funding the same terrorist PKK PKD KURDS who killed thousands of Turks.

You're suggesting that Saudi Arabia desperately wants the Nuclear Umbrella because they're a paranoid bunch? And that our Nuclear Umbrella is a better defense than the entire arsenal the USA offers inside Saudi Arabia?
 
You're suggesting that Saudi Arabia desperately wants the Nuclear Umbrella because they're a paranoid bunch? And that our Nuclear Umbrella is a better defense than the entire arsenal the USA offers inside Saudi Arabia?

Would you want Americans to sit Inside Pakistan with all their arsenal? The Arsenal belongs to Americans not Saudis and they are not entitled to help them. No country helps other without some ulterior motive behind their action. At the end of the day it is just you and your enemy as other will tuck tails and scram to save their own behind.
 

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