Saudi Arabia will fail to roll back Arab Spring in Egypt and elsewhere

[kalu_miah]

Did Saudi Arabia send millions of its own citizens to protest against the Muslim Brotherhood inability to rule or something ?! Some people are actually complaining that Saudi Arabia is helping Egypt politically and economically in this tough time.. Maybe Saudi Arabia should kick all the Egyptian working in Saudi Arabia out to make some people happy.

If you are referring to the articles I posted, you should look at writers bio, they are no Egyptians:

Biography
David Ignatius - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I don't see any Egyptians complaining here in this thread.

Saudi Arabia can at any time target migrant workers from any given country, but that will severely affect the relationship of that country and its people with Saudi Arabia.

More pertinent to the topic, do you agree to the assessment made by these two experts in the field of foreign policy and international relations? If you disagree with their prediction, what in your view will happen and why? Will Sisi actually hold free and fair elections and even allow MB supporters and leaders to participate (even if MB is banned) or is he going to try to become Mubarak 2.0? Note that Mubarak allowed MB to participate in elections and to hold limited number of seats in parliament.

 

[agentny17]

With due respect, I disagree with your views and agree more with Marc Lynch and David Ignatius in above articles.

Saudi Arabia is a monarchy, so it is natural for them to dislike democratic movement like the Arab Spring, but they are no where near murderous, treacherous and sectarian as your own regime in Iran, as demonstrated with their support for Assad in Syria.

The relationship between MB and Saudi's are complex and long and at this moment in history, you are correct that many anti-MB Egyptians and Saudi's found common cause, but the main logic of the OP is that this common cause will be short lived, specially if Sisi tries to become Mubarak 2.0.

Sisi as Mubarak 2.0 will mean death of Arab Spring, a step back for Egypt and the region, something no Egyptian or Arab masses will accept or tolerate, in my opinion.

You can not be more wrong

 

[kalu_miah]

You can not be more wrong

Can you explain a bit more? Wrong on which part? Note that Sisi as Mubarak 2.0 means that he will become President himself in rigged and fake elections like Mubarak used to do, where he will choose who will be allowed to run.

 

[agentny17]

Can you explain a bit more? Wrong on which part? Note that Sisi as Mubarak 2.0 means that he will become President himself in rigged and fake elections like Mubarak used to do, where he will choose who will be allowed to run.

He is not running for presidency, although if he runs he will win but he is not running!! Elections will be fair and monitored by the US, UN, and EU as it was announced the people in power already!! You are talking as if the masses are not supporting the army, which is not true. The people asked the army to interfere not the other way around.

 

[kalu_miah]

He is not running for presidency, although if he runs he will win but he is not running!! Elections will be fair and monitored by the US, UN, and EU as it was announced the people in power already!! You are talking as if the masses are not supporting the army, which is not true. The people asked the army to interfere not the other way around.

Let's see if he can keep his promise of not running, I am skeptical, but I will give him the benefit of doubt that he will not run and hold free and fair elections monitored by US, UN and EU. If he does that, then that will be great for Egypt.

I never said or implied the bold part above, please show me where I did. I am quite aware that a good chunk of Egyptian masses were upset with MB and wanted the Army to remove them from power.

But you did not mention anything about what Sisi will do with MB/FJP, Salafist Al Nour and other religion based parties, will they be banned as "terrorists"? Even if the parties are banned, Will the MB leaders be locked up in jail or will they be allowed to participate in elections even as independents?

 

[Frogman]

But you did not mention anything about what Sisi will do with MB/FJP, Salafist Al Nour and other religion based parties, will they be banned as "terrorists"? Even if the parties are banned, Will the MB leaders be locked up in jail or will they be allowed to participate in elections even as independents?

The MB (the organization itself) may be deemed a terrorist organization and its members arrested and prosecuted. The FJP's destiny however is unclear. If members of the MB decide to participate in future elections or in the transitional phase (if they don't have charges on them) the FJ party may very well be left to accommodate them.

The Salafist Nour party wont be outlawed or deemed a terrorist organization. What threatens them is whether the amended constitution will allow political parties based on religious ideologies.

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

Everybody is entitled to have their own opinion, I don't think you should explain your stance, but at the same time, we have no power over Al-Sisi or the MB to call for a compromised solution.

Saudi Arabia took it upon itself vowed to stand with those who marched on the streets demanding that Morsi should step down. We knew how complicated the consequences were going to be, but our foreign policy is transparent, plain and simple.

We could have had supported the armed forces behind the curtain, took a neutral stand between both parties concerned, but we will never allow Egypt to be at the mercy of foreign states.

What most of you don't seem to see is that history is repeating itself once more. The way Al-Sisi is cracking down against the MB is the same tactics Nasser had used against them in the mid 50s. But maybe Al-Sisi chose not to resort to violence until the MB did so. Take what happened in Sinai as an example, civilians were shot dead by terrorist militias, and then the Arm Forces were blamed for this. Another example we could use is setting churches on fire, exchange of fire during Al-Fatah Mosque raid, and the attack on anti-MB protesters in Tahrir Square.

We have no personal issue with Morsi or the MB, but clearly, the Egyptian people DO have a problem with them. The MB was trying to curb over the power, they successfully achieved their goal, but later, the opposition couldn't stand the way the MB was running their country.

I expect my country to act out accordingly, advising the Egyptian interim Gov't to hold elections as soon as possible for the sake of peace and stability.

@Yzd Khalifa @Arabian Legend Dear Brothers, I know you guys will not like this thread, but I reserve the right to disagree and criticize a friends action, if I believe that friend is making a mistake. I think a friend who criticizes out of concern for the well being of a friend is a better friend than a friend who prefers to be more like a servile yes man.

I agree with both of the above articles. I think it was short sighted on the part of Saudi strategists, to support the coup by Sisi, not preventing the killings by Sisi and encouraging the continuing crack down on MB supporters by Sisi to crush MB in Egypt.

I am no fan, supporter or part of Muslim Brotherhood, Salafism or any form of political Islam as they exist now, I believe they are all misguided to some extent. But I am a big believer in democracy to empower the masses and for the evolution of human societies. From that belief, I support allowing any group or political party to freely participate in democracy, even if the groups are based on Islamic ideals, affinity and solidarity, as long as these groups do not threaten democracy itself and become authoritarian, like it happened in Iran.

Sisi toppled Morsi with a promise to Egyptian people that he will hold election and bring a better and more inclusive democracy. I am hoping that KSA and other Gulf govts. who backed Sisi, will remind Sisi to keep his promise to Egyptian people so Sisi does not become the 2nd Mubarak. Even Mubarak allowed MB to participate in elections and hold some positions in parliament, so there should not be any restriction on MB to participate in politics. Lets believe in the good sense and judgement of Egyptian voters themselves who can easily keep MB out of power, if they feel MB is going to subvert democracy and make Egypt into a Sunni version of Iran. Even if the MB wins elections again, which I doubt they will after Morsi's poor performance in last one year, the Army is always there as a rear guard of the Egyptian people to overthrow them, if they try to overreach and destroy democracy.

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

Hey Resurgent! How's life? I haven't seen you for a while, I hope you're doing well and good bro.

Actually it was a very smart and calculated move on their behalf. You simply have to come to terms with the fact that Saudi Arabia is THE counter-revolutionary force in the region.

Arab revolts (that results in democratic governments) represent a grave danger to their rule.
I think this time Saudi got little lucky because it seems Muslim Brotherhood is genuinly hated by most Egyptians.
Which is great for Saudi, because they also hate the MB.

I don't think the way KSA is handling the Egyptian crisis could be interpreted as an act of counter-revolutionary at all. I believe that KSA chose to support the opposition for aplenty of reasons such as the MB attempts to destabilize the UAE, and Jordan, and maybe KSA didn't like the way the MB-Iranian relations are going.



The Saudi constitution never mentioned or enlisted such thing at all. Like all nations across the world, the RSF stores some equipments of which they are going to use in case of an act of war. So, no, I don't think that Veteran knows what he is talking about.

According to a US military veteran the US has 2 mechanized/armoured divisions of tanks pre positioned in Saudi Arabia and 3 pre positioned armoured divisions in the GCC, unmanned though, they can be manned whenever war breaks out by the Americans ( in the rest of GCC, large number in Kuwait & Qatar ) as the Saudi constitution does not allow foreign troops on their soil anymore.

All M1A2s are operated or in storage ? according to him many are in storage pre positioned for the US military if needed.

He is not running for presidency, although if he runs he will win but he is not running!! Elections will be fair and monitored by the US, UN, and EU as it was announced the people in power already!! You are talking as if the masses are not supporting the army, which is not true. The people asked the army to interfere not the other way around.

Agent,

Hi there! How's life?

Bro, I heard that many Egyptians want Al-Sisi to run for president, why do you think they say so? Is it because he's charismatic or what?

If he runs for president, he definitely will win.

 

[Sinnerman108]

Actually, we do have 75k reservists and the number is expected to go higher to 150k

F the reservists;

we need to unleash @al_Hasani

btw, where is our favourite brother ?

Agent,

Hi there! How's life?

Bro, I heard that many Egyptians want Al-Sisi to run for president, why do you think they say so? Is it because he's charismatic or what?

If he runs for president, he definitely will win.

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/middle...b-spring-egypt-elsewhere-2.html#ixzz2csCcvJuA

I don't know about the accuracy of this observation, all the Egyptians I have seen are very very sad at the state of affairs and they are all AGAINST SiSi, Mubarak and Al Baradi.

Some one posted

Morsi is in Jail -> Mubarak is out of Jail = Who pressed the reset button ?

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

Al-Hasani has been banned for centuries : ( I can't wait to see him coming back.

F the reservists;

we need to unleash @al_Hasani

btw, where is our favourite brother ?

 

[doublemaster]

F the reservists;

we need to unleash @al_Hasani

btw, where is our favourite brother ?



I don't know about the accuracy of this observation, all the Egyptians I have seen are very very sad at the state of affairs and they are all AGAINST SiSi, Mubarak and Al Baradi.

Some one posted

Morsi is in Jail -> Mubarak is out of Jail = Who pressed the reset button ?

Elbaradai ran to austria...He him self confused now...

He is thinking...should he tarnish his nobel price image

or should become president of egypt killing people.

 

[Sinnerman108]

Elbaradai ran to austria...He him self confused now...

He is thinking...should he tarnish his nobel price image

or should become president of egypt killing people.

Get Serious .... don't post if you lack knowledge.

 

[ResurgentIran]

Hey Resurgent! How's life? I haven't seen you for a while, I hope you're doing well and

Hey bro, Im doing good. How are you?

I just came back from Turkey, it was awesome. Im also going to Dubai and Iran, in a few weeks. Cant wait!!
Im taking à break from studies THis semester.

Edit: god damn autocorrect!!!

 

[agentny17]

Bro, I heard that many Egyptians want Al-Sisi to run for president, why do you think they say so? Is it because he's charismatic or what?

If he runs for president, he definitely will win.

Because people want stability and security, which is no body is more capable of providing than El Sisi and the army in general!! I rather him not run and i trust his intelligence that he won't run! He might have a chance in the future after he retires from the army. His popularity is sky high.

 

[RiazHaq]

Oil-rich Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Iran have used their petrodollars to influence events in the Middle East and West Asia. They have funded their favorite sectarian groups to fight bloody proxy conflicts in Lebanon, Iraq, Pakistan and Syria. Saudis have bankrolled radical Sunni groups in Pakistan while Iran has financially backed Shia Hezbollah in Lebanon and other radical Shia groups in Iraq and Pakistan. Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE have supported pro-West elements to roll back democracy in Egypt.

Even if Saudis do heed Prince Alwaleed's warning and succeed in diversifying their economy, it is highly unlikely that the desert Kingdom would be able sustain its current power and influence over the long haul. This is going to be bad news for the rulers who will respond with violence to resist change. But it is potentially good news for the Saudi people and the Arab and Muslim world at large. It'll open up opportunities for reforms leading to positive changes in the Middle East and the surrounding region.

Haq's Musings: Shale Revolution Poses Threat to Saudi Economy, Power and Influence?