SAC - FC-31 Grey Falcon Stealth aircraft for PAF : Updates & Debate

[GiantPanda]

The PLAAF hasn't introduced a small or a medium engine aircraft like the JF-17 since the J-7. The J-10, J-11, J-16 and J-20 are all based on the heavy engine class, in particular the WS-10 and WS-15 in the future.

Very unlikely the JF-17 was ever on the PLAAF's roadmap. FC-1 was always developed as an export aircraft.

In fact, the JF-17 is assembled mainly in Pakistan not China. That would not happen if it were a PLAAF jet.

I've been saying it over and over. Pakistan MUST build it's strategic assets in house even at a limited ToT or assembly bases. Future wars will be long wars of attrition and you can't source "parts" or send your jets to China for "fixtures".

That was exactly what the JF-17 was intended to do. The J-10 line might be available as the PLAAF move into an increasing 5th gen and then 6th gen force. But I am not sure Pakistan would or could sustain another line until its industry is more mature.

 

[LKJ86]

You do know that (at least) the PAF circles have openly and repeatedly admitted that there was a commitment from the Chinese to buy 250 units of JFT which they subsequently reneged on, based on changed requirements of the PLAAF ( Possibly also the success of the J10 which suited their requirements more).

PLAAF even wanted to give up J-10 to buy more Su-30s. And PLAAF wasn't involved in development of FC-1/JF-17 from the beginning, so why would PLAAF consider the lightweight fighter?

 

[Corax]

You do know that (at least) the PAF circles have openly and repeatedly admitted that there was a commitment from the Chinese to buy 250 units of JFT which they subsequently reneged on, based on changed requirements of the PLAAF ( Possibly also the success of the J10 which suited their requirements more). Other than that PAF has always asked for PAF specific requirements on existing Chinese platforms which the Chinese have very kindly obliged us on. The JFT story has always been refuted by Chinese posters but has been repeatedly mentioned by PAF sources and is in print. So if this statement stands true then your argument does not stand. Also to date there has not been much sale of PLAAF air platforms if PAF has not bought them. This may yet change in the future but stands true till now.
A

As the Chinese members have elaborated, the JF-17 was always envisaged as an export project, without any official PLAF commitments. Sure there was "talk" in the media, but I don't think there was ever an official requirement for the aircraft from the PLAF. If anything, I remember it was being touted as a ground attack specific aircraft for the PLAF, and the ground attack biased focus of its canon is probably a relic of that requirement. At the time the PLAF had several programmes to suite its requirements - the Flanker variants, JH-7, J-10, J-8, etc, there was no need or space for another platform that didn't match is requirements. Heck, the Chinese were also still modifying the J-7 airframe (with the PAF I might add, F-7PG anyone?) as well as the Q-5 Fantan.

But you're missing one clearly obvious point from your argument - is the JF-17 a failure or has it affected its success with the PAF by the fact that it wasn't ordered by the PLAF?! If anything, the PAF has been able to push through its specific requirements relatively easy, and managed to have overall command of what it can do with the platform, than if the PLAF had a greater stake in the platform.

Of course replicating the same model as the JF-17 for an FGFA will be considerably more expensive, but so will going it alone or hitching a ride on the TFX or J-31/35 by virtue of the leap in generation in technology. Project Azm clearly demonstrates that the PAF wants greater control of the next gen fighter programme, but it's clearly recognised that it has bitten off more than it can handle, or can afford.

 

[SQ8]

PLAAF even wanted to give up J-10 to buy more Su-30s. And PLAAF wasn't involved in development of FC-1/JF-17 from the beginning, so why would PLAAF consider the lightweight fighter?

I think the aspect of changing requirements comes in. Much like all air forces the PLAAF creates a doctrine requirements document which it reviews and revises(as needed) annually or even semi-annually. So if the US can change its requirements from 750 F-22 down to barely 180 and now is adding more upgraded Legacy aircraft; it is very likely that the PLAAF may have had a requirements document back in the late 90s based on what its staff saw then as their needs of Jf-17s but then revised it seeing the J-10 and later seeing the nature of conflict change may have looked to push for even more heavy aircraft. Its constantly evolving for all forces and the PLAAF is adapting to its threat spectrum as well.

 

[MastanKhan]

I've been saying it over and over. Pakistan MUST build it's strategic assets in house even at a limited ToT or assembly bases. Future wars will be long wars of attrition and you can't source "parts" or send your jets to China for "fixtures". We need local industry and buying a J-10C manufacturing line would do wonders for us. When our orders are finished, we turn the same manufacturing line into a "rebuild / sustainment" factory. We can retrain Mirage rebuild factory's crew and use our internal engineering graduates that are very smart and in numbers. Local assembly of J-10C will do wonders, will start a tech industry base in Pakistan also and we can support this platform during a conflict ourselves. Plus acquiring a manufacturing line that's achieved economies of scale would be cheaper now, vs. in Ten years when we'd need a "rebuild" factory.

Hi,

The allies won the 2nd world war---because the production lines were out of the reach of the enemy---. No one could bomb the factories in the US---.

& guess what---why did Germany lose---poor buggers---. Their production lines were destroyed---. They could not supply enough weapons to the frontlines----.

Wars are all about the supply line and not about dying for your country---.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

The threshold of minimum power display changed in the arena---.

Even though the JF17 was far superior and far advanced than the aircraft F-7's that it replaced---the chinese had to re-assess their power positioning due to the changing level of threat---.

They wanted to meet the enemy a little farther out of the mainland with more weapons---.

Whereas paf could have its bases 20 miles from the enemy border---china did not have that option available---. They were a lot farther away from their enemy---.

Simply a wiser decision by plaaf---.

Bottomline is that they got what they wanted---and we got almost a free fighter aircraft in the process that we could mould down to our needs---.

Guys---we got a free 4th gen aircraft in the form of the BLK 1 & 2---and a 4.5 gen aircraft coming in the form of BLK 3----.

Pakistan could not have asked for more---. Chinese have not stopped developing the BLK 3----their assistance is there 100% to make the aircraft better and potent at every level of development---.

Go back in history---and look at the size of the sword that the Roman soldiers carried and compare it to the size of the sword of its enemies.

It was 2 ft long to 2'-4" long---and how about the length of the enemy's sword---3'---3.5' long---.

Each army designs weapons to suit its needs---function---utility---.

For that reason---we still have the G3 in service---whereas others have changed their weapon multiple times---.

 

[Trango Towers]

whats up with Egyptian military? They have lately been buying all the toys from all over the world including Rafaels, Su-35, Mig 29s, F-16 (over 200 in service), M2000, F-15 (agreement made earlier). Their economy is busted and they have been living on loans for sometime now and seems to be in a pretty bad shape with all the insane amount of spending.

Still can't fight Israel

 

[MastanKhan]

whats up with Egyptian military? They have lately been buying all the toys from all over the world including Rafaels, Su-35, Mig 29s, F-16 (over 200 in service), M2000, F-15 (agreement made earlier). Their economy is busted and they have been living on loans for sometime now and seems to be in a pretty bad shape with all the insane amount of spending.

Hi,

They have funds coming from GCC---plus they have discovered large amount of oil & gas reservoirs---.

 

[GriffinsRule]

I've been saying it over and over. Pakistan MUST build it's strategic assets in house even at a limited ToT or assembly bases. Future wars will be long wars of attrition and you can't source "parts" or send your jets to China for "fixtures". We need local industry and buying a J-10C manufacturing line would do wonders for us. When our orders are finished, we turn the same manufacturing line into a "rebuild / sustainment" factory. We can retrain Mirage rebuild factory's crew and use our internal engineering graduates that are very smart and in numbers. Local assembly of J-10C will do wonders, will start a tech industry base in Pakistan also and we can support this platform during a conflict ourselves. Plus acquiring a manufacturing line that's achieved economies of scale would be cheaper now, vs. in Ten years when we'd need a "rebuild" factory.

On AZM, its dead (to build a local airframe), but it's still a project to study and acquire TFX through a partnership. With Akinci (EW / ISR/ CAP/anti ship) and KizilElma (CAP / anti ship roles only) combination and capability, it would make sense to go towards acquiring the TFX to maintain a combination that would work together and to support, we'd have gained knowledge and trained our people. CH series drones will be used by Pak Army for CAS / COIN / ISR, etc, linked with JFT and J-10C's, making another combination of 4+gen tech.

You are completely wrong. Future wars with India will be short and intense and expect major infrastructure destroyed (disproportionately inside Pakistan) including all these factories churning out weapons. The sustainment/rebuild phase only comes after the 2-week war in which manpower will be more important than machining and tooling (which is faster and easier to replace).
And not buying this argument for "wonders" that will happen from assembly work. I mean come on

 

[applesauce]

I have been following the J17 programme when it first started out as the Super 7 / Sabre programme and followed all its ups and downs and the commitment by China to also purchase the JF17 as an equal partner was "part of the business case to make the unit cost affordable" - but this does not get acknowledged by the chinese posters here who attempt to say that the programme was for "Pakistan only" etc. This is one of the main reasons why PAF has been luke warm on the whole J-31/35 programme(lessons learnt) - as PAF does not want to fund another development of a fighter programme (ie spend hundreds of millions of dollars ) for the chinese industry - it would much rather buy them off the shelf if the PLAAF/N take it seriously then use those "hundreds of millions" on unit procurement etc....

situation is different.


fund?

the j-31/35??

that boats sailed a long time ago and pakistan didn't get on it, now they got confirmed PLAN and likely PLAAF support, meaning plenty of funds.

and it isnt even a choice now with the project nearing completion. at best some minor electronic adjustments for any potential pakistan(or others like the middle east) order, otherwise its off the shelf.

i bet the situation is the same for TFX as well. though that program is behind china's so maybe? some collaboration is still possible, but then Pakistan doesn't really have any funds and no tech superior to turkey's to share except as a middle man to china but then china isnt interested in sharing tech with turkey who likes to stick its nose into china's internal muslim affairs every now and again so theres that.

and frankly i dont see why pakistan would be lukewarm to a project based on the jf-17 anyhow. i never saw any official chinese guarantee to buy any of the jets, only online speculation. and you act like pakistan got nothing out of it and only funded chinese aerospace developments. which could not be farther from the truth. Pakistan got tons of tech out of it, domestic production, abid with some central parts from china(and engines from russia). for a meagre 500 million at that

 

[FuturePAF]

The FC-31 is designed for export and has been flying for a decade with a sanction proof engine (WS-13E) and has a set path to an advance engine (WS-19) in the future.

TFX has not flown yet and when it does it will be using an engine (F100) that is a major sanction risk. It will be no different than the T129.

So realistically not only does Pakistan need to wait until the TFX flies but also an indigenous Turkish engine to be developed, tested and productionized before it can be a viable option.

Meanwhile, the FC-31 is here and now and there is a distinct possibility that it would already be sold in the near future if rumors of Egypt and Saudi Arabia are correct.

What are the specs of the WS-19 expected to be? The T-FX’s engines will probably be in the league for the F110.

 

[GiantPanda]

What are the specs of the WS-19 expected to be? The T-FX’s engines will probably be in the league for the F110.

The WS-19 is rumored be 110kN. WS-13E at 100kN.

 

[araz]

I have been following the J17 programme when it first started out as the Super 7 / Sabre programme and followed all its ups and downs and the commitment by China to also purchase the JF17 as an equal partner was "part of the business case to make the unit cost affordable" - but this does not get acknowledged by the chinese posters here who attempt to say that the programme was for "Pakistan only" etc. This is one of the main reasons why PAF has been luke warm on the whole J-31/35 programme(lessons learnt) - as PAF does not want to fund another development of a fighter programme (ie spend hundreds of millions of dollars ) for the chinese industry - it would much rather buy them off the shelf if the PLAAF/N take it seriously then use those "hundreds of millions" on unit procurement etc....

I have read the response of some of our Chinese brothers and also the suggestion of the venerable @SQ8. I agree with him that the Chinese requirement has changed as they have gotten their hands on the SU series and built them up along with developing it. However, international and Pakistani print media has repeatedly stated the position I have alluded to. The Chinese ASR changing is only too natural given its geographical conditions. However it has relied heavily on single engined fighters (for the lack of suitable twin engined ones). As soon as tbis happened it has changed its requirements and I fully support this.
Posters have given the example of the pgs. But again PAF bought the Ps first and then asked for changes. With the J10s PAF has suggested changes in 2007 and then bought the platform in the 20s when it had matured. PAF will not buy a non matured idea from the Chinese due to potential cost sinks. The same will possibly be the case with the Turks now having learnt from the T129 fiasco.
A

 

[araz]

I've been saying it over and over. Pakistan MUST build it's strategic assets in house even at a limited ToT or assembly bases. Future wars will be long wars of attrition and you can't source "parts" or send your jets to China for "fixtures". We need local industry and buying a J-10C manufacturing line would do wonders for us. When our orders are finished, we turn the same manufacturing line into a "rebuild / sustainment" factory. We can retrain Mirage rebuild factory's crew and use our internal engineering graduates that are very smart and in numbers. Local assembly of J-10C will do wonders, will start a tech industry base in Pakistan also and we can support this platform during a conflict ourselves. Plus acquiring a manufacturing line that's achieved economies of scale would be cheaper now, vs. in Ten years when we'd need a "rebuild" factory.

On AZM, its dead (to build a local airframe), but it's still a project to study and acquire TFX through a partnership. With Akinci (EW / ISR/ CAP/anti ship) and KizilElma (CAP / anti ship roles only) combination and capability, it would make sense to go towards acquiring the TFX to maintain a combination that would work together and to support, we'd have gained knowledge and trained our people. CH series drones will be used by Pak Army for CAS / COIN / ISR, etc, linked with JFT and J-10C's, making another combination of 4+gen tech.

I will only respond to the last paragraph of your post. When the PAF/PN/PA are acquiring drones from multiple sources and fulfilling their requirements Azm appears to just be another institution where people gain fat arses from sitting in plush offices and doing nothing. In the long run PAF will be forced to look inwards but currently nothing of value has been produced due to multiple factors ( foreign items make money for generals, lack of investmemt into infrastructure, and lack of basic infrastructure being one of the many reasons). I dont know whether we have put the cart before the horse here or what! However I will be absolutely thrilled and proud when we start producing post graduate students to supply to the rest of the world like all other institutes in Pakistan. We lose people as we cannot pay them what other companies will pay, there is no career progression and no will to reward genius or individual efforts. Even if something is produced incorporation in the industry becomes problematic. We need to progress far but both the means and the will seems to be lacking at the moment.
A

 

[FuturePAF]

The WS-19 is rumored be 110kN. WS-13E at 100kN.

Does the maker of the WS-10 engines share technology with the maker of the WS-19 engine, if they aren’t the same company?