SAC - FC-31 Grey Falcon Stealth aircraft for PAF : Updates & Debate

[applesauce]

Is buying J-31 making more sense? I have an alternative proposal and wanted to gauge interest / check logic here from senior members. Would it make sense to acquire J-10CE production line and build 100-150 jets under the brand of JF-17 block 4 with delta wings? (speaking long term here, not next year). The same line can later be used for maintenance / upgrades / rebuild and stealthy options from J-31 can start to be introduced to build expertise and industry on certain components and tech.

The same production line can later be enhanced to produce a stealthy version of the 5th gen J-10-JXX when we get to that stage by rebranding project AZM using J-31 or J-20's tech. This would save a lot of national expenditure and we'd have in-house capacity for building / maintaining our fleet of our top line jets.

Thoughts?

???? why would you call a j-10 line, jf-17 block 4???? those are entirely different planes

inducting a line isnt impossible or anything, just weird you would call it that.

and you cant just use the same line to make stuff for an entirely different jet.

and no, you are not "enhancing" a j-10 line to make 5th gen later, it would be a new line

lastly this would cost a boat load of money that pakistan does not have, and no china isn't going to gift you j-20 tech or j-35 line.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Is buying J-31 making more sense? I have an alternative proposal and wanted to gauge interest / check logic here from senior members. Would it make sense to acquire J-10CE production line and build 100-150 jets under the brand of JF-17 block 4 with delta wings? (speaking long term here, not next year). The same line can later be used for maintenance / upgrades / rebuild and stealthy options from J-31 can start to be introduced to build expertise and industry on certain components and tech.

The same production line can later be enhanced to produce a stealthy version of the 5th gen J-10-JXX when we get to that stage by rebranding project AZM using J-31 or J-20's tech. This would save a lot of national expenditure and we'd have in-house capacity for building / maintaining our fleet of our top line jets.

Thoughts?

Through the 2020s, the PAF will keep buying J-10CEs and JF-17 Block-3s. The PAF will buy J-10CEs off-the-shelf in small or incremental batches (similar to the PAF's Mirage III/5 acquisition in the 1970s). The PAF doesn't buy a new fighter unless it's planning to commit to at least 90 units. So, by the 2030s, the PAF could have around 90 J-10CEs. As for the JF-17 Block-3, the PAF's procurement run would depend on export demand and if it wants to upgrade the Block-I/IIs, or simply replace them with Block-3s. So, the Block-3 run could be anywhere from 30 to 150 units.

The NGFA will start becoming a serious topic closer to the 2030s, especially as the older F-16A/Bs start nearing the end of their OEM-defined lifecycles. By this point, the PAF could possibly take a more traditional offset approach. So, instead of asking for ToT, the PAF would buy some fighters (again, 90+ in total), but request the OEM re-invest in Pakistan, ideally by sourcing some of the fighter's supply from Pakistan. In that respect, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) already has a little bit of a head start via its local office in Pakistan.

 

[MastanKhan]

Care to go beyond "f-d up"? and help provide some details? I've read some of your posts lately. I don't know how much you know about setting up a manufacturing line, tech buildout for such applications, cost and localization / industry aspects of things as well as national expenditure being a country like Pakistan. Keep in mind, we now build majority of the JF-17 ourselves so aircrafts and tech aren't new to Pakistan anymore.

Hi,

Welcome to the forum.

We are just a little child in aircraft manufacture

 

[python-000]

Through the 2020s, the PAF will keep buying J-10CEs and JF-17 Block-3s. The PAF will buy J-10CEs off-the-shelf in small or incremental batches (similar to the PAF's Mirage III/5 acquisition in the 1970s). The PAF doesn't buy a new fighter unless it's planning to commit to at least 90 units. So, by the 2030s, the PAF could have around 90 J-10CEs. As for the JF-17 Block-3, the PAF's procurement run would depend on export demand and if it wants to upgrade the Block-I/IIs, or simply replace them with Block-3s. So, the Block-3 run could be anywhere from 30 to 150 units.

The NGFA will start becoming a serious topic closer to the 2030s, especially as the older F-16A/Bs start nearing the end of their OEM-defined lifecycles. By this point, the PAF could possibly take a more traditional offset approach. So, instead of asking for ToT, the PAF would buy some fighters (again, 90+ in total), but request the OEM re-invest in Pakistan, ideally by sourcing some of the fighter's supply from Pakistan. In that respect, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) already has a little bit of a head start via its local office in Pakistan.

In my opinion J-35 Is the Best option for PAF without any western string attached...

 

[araz]

In my opinion J-35 Is the Best option for PAF without any western string attached...

PAF has been stung badly by the JFT saga. It will not buy any plane that has not been inducted in PLAAF. J35 is likely to be a carrier based fighter. If you look at the life cycle of PAF's interest in J10. It took from 2007-8 to 2021 for PAF to move towards a platform. In the process the J10 matured and underwent 3 iterations before PAF chose it. It will likely take 7-10years of a land version of J35/31 for PAF to show interest in it. It will however keep a very close eye on things.
The TFX is another platformPAF seems interested in and is more likely to go for provided Turkiye has independence on engine manufacturing and selling without any interruptions/ interventions. Closer to the time(2030-35) PAF will compare both the platforms against its requirements and decide. There maybe other factors in the acquisitions ie offsets, local component manufacturing, limited TOT, Local servicing and depot maintenance, generous loan terms amongst other things. I dont see a 5th generation offering in the subcontinent till the mid to late 30s. However with the level and speed of advancements who knows!!.
A

 

[Ali_Baba]

PAF has been stung badly by the JFT saga. It will not buy any plane that has not been inducted in PLAAF

Absolutely agree on this - China was meant to purchase as many JF17s as Pakistan was meant to. When China pulled out of the programme from a procurement persepective - it fell on Pakistan to fund the completion of Block I, and pay for Block II / III's itself. There was no sharing of development costs which was part of the original business case for the JF17 !!! This funding of the development programme "soaked" up money that could have been used to perform more units of the JF17 - hence why the procurement of the JF17 felt so glacial for so long.

This has for sure left a sour taste in PAF's mouth as far as future development programmes go and how they will be structured.

. J35 is likely to be a carrier based fighter. If you look at the life cycle of PAF's interest in J10. It took from 2007-8 to 2021 for PAF to move towards a platform. In the process the J10 matured and underwent 3 iterations before PAF chose it. It will likely take 7-10years of a land version of J35/31 for PAF to show interest in it. It will however keep a very close eye on things.

Agree - let CATIC / China finance it and develop a mature product - there is no value in being the launch customer for the J-31/35 and paying for its development costs - when that money can be spent on procurements of platforms once the development was complete. This is not a co-development project that will directly benefit Pakistans aerospace industry much. Best decision Pakistan made was to sit on the sidelines for the J-35 programme despite all the PR/pressure/hard-sell by China / CATIC applied to try and get Pakistan as the launch customer and then make Pakistan pay for its development !!!!

The TFX is another platformPAF seems interested in and is more likely to go for provided Turkiye has independence on engine manufacturing and selling without any interruptions/ interventions. Closer to the time(2030-35) PAF will compare both the platforms against its requirements and decide. There maybe other factors in the acquisitions ie offsets, local component manufacturing, limited TOT, Local servicing and depot maintenance, generous loan terms amongst other things. I dont see a 5th generation offering in the subcontinent till the mid to late 30s. However with the level and speed of advancements who knows!!.

I am beyond certain that Pakistan will induct the TFX. Pakistan is starting to incorporate Turkish military technology into its military with a view of having military diversity of course, but also as leverage against some of the more "sharper" Chinese "business" practices over its sales and prices of some it's systems. It is a hedge.

 

[Trango Towers]

PAF has been stung badly by the JFT saga. It will not buy any plane that has not been inducted in PLAAF. J35 is likely to be a carrier based fighter. If you look at the life cycle of PAF's interest in J10. It took from 2007-8 to 2021 for PAF to move towards a platform. In the process the J10 matured and underwent 3 iterations before PAF chose it. It will likely take 7-10years of a land version of J35/31 for PAF to show interest in it. It will however keep a very close eye on things.
The TFX is another platformPAF seems interested in and is more likely to go for provided Turkiye has independence on engine manufacturing and selling without any interruptions/ interventions. Closer to the time(2030-35) PAF will compare both the platforms against its requirements and decide. There maybe other factors in the acquisitions ie offsets, local component manufacturing, limited TOT, Local servicing and depot maintenance, generous loan terms amongst other things. I dont see a 5th generation offering in the subcontinent till the mid to late 30s. However with the level and speed of advancements who knows!!.
A

Pakistan has not been stung by the JFT. It was a pakistan proposed and Pakistan specific light fighter based on f16. This is straight from air Marshall shahid lateef the founder of the program. Now if Pakistan has suffered why now the block 3 has j20 tech in it. Its designed to take on Indian front line fighters. .
So your assumptions are negative and false

 

[MH.Yang]

Hi,

Welcome to the forum.

We are just a little child in aircraft manufacture

Disagree.

There are more than 200 countries in the world, only P5, Sweden, Japan, Germany and Italy, whose fighter aircraft manufacturing is significantly stronger than that of Pakistan. India, Brazil, South Korea, Spain, Israel, Canada, Australia, Türkiye and other countries are at a similar level with Pakistan. More than 100 countries are significantly weaker than Pakistan.

So if Pakistan is just a child, then there are more than 100 countries just fertilized eggs.

 

[Trango Towers]

Disagree.

There are more than 200 countries in the world, only P5, Sweden, Japan, Germany and Italy, whose fighter aircraft manufacturing is significantly stronger than that of Pakistan. India, Brazil, South Korea, Spain, Israel, Canada, Australia, Türkiye and other countries are at a similar level with Pakistan. More than 100 countries are significantly weaker than Pakistan.

So if Pakistan is just a child, then there are more than 100 countries just fertilized eggs.

He was being sarcastic

 

[Ali_Baba]

Pakistan has not been stung by the JFT. It was a pakistan proposed and Pakistan specific light fighter based on f16. This is straight from air Marshall shahid lateef the founder of the program. Now if Pakistan has suffered why now the block 3 has j20 tech in it. Its designed to take on Indian front line fighters. .
So your assumptions are negative and false

Pakistan "had to persevere" and progress the JF17 after the PLAAF pulled out of the FC1 programme - Pakistan had no choice but to carry on with it on it own.

My point, was very clearly was that China's PLAAF was meant to buy the FC1/JF17 jets in equal numbers to the PAF when the joint partnership was launched to develop the jet and the original business case/financials were centred around that. And when the PLAAF backed out of that commitment, it affected the programme as it fell to Pakistan to fund the various blocks on its own. Costs were not shared as originally planned with the PLAAF as the PLAAF had abandoned the FC1 programme in favour of the J-10 series.

Yes - JF17 has some J20 DNA in it - the integration of which was paid for by Pakistan, and different to the original plans of shared developement costs for enhancements between the PAF and PLAAF, but how does that relate to the PLAAF's original commitment to buy the FC1 aswell, and then backing out of that commitment?

 

[Beast]

PAF has been stung badly by the JFT saga. It will not buy any plane that has not been inducted in PLAAF. J35 is likely to be a carrier based fighter. If you look at the life cycle of PAF's interest in J10. It took from 2007-8 to 2021 for PAF to move towards a platform. In the process the J10 matured and underwent 3 iterations before PAF chose it. It will likely take 7-10years of a land version of J35/31 for PAF to show interest in it. It will however keep a very close eye on things.
The TFX is another platformPAF seems interested in and is more likely to go for provided Turkiye has independence on engine manufacturing and selling without any interruptions/ interventions. Closer to the time(2030-35) PAF will compare both the platforms against its requirements and decide. There maybe other factors in the acquisitions ie offsets, local component manufacturing, limited TOT, Local servicing and depot maintenance, generous loan terms amongst other things. I dont see a 5th generation offering in the subcontinent till the mid to late 30s. However with the level and speed of advancements who knows!!.
A

Let me repeat. JF-17 is a project wanted by PAF. From start to end, PLAAF never wanted JF-17 becos we have our own J-10 program.

And now we have somebody throwing false accusation claiming PLAAF promised to induct JF-17 into PLAAF and PAF which is bluntly lies just trying to shove blame on China. Shown me an official statement by PLAAF that they will induct JF-17 into PLAAF and then they back off from this statement...

All the while , its PAF making assumption based on J-7PG project that JF-17 will also be inducted into PLAAF. PAF even make an embarrassing statement without official approval for PLAAF that China will induct JF-17 into its own fleet.


I am very frustrated with such allies like Pakistan throwing blatant lies against China despite our generous help of our JF-17 project. Instead of a thank you, all China get is cheapshot from these backstabbers. Even the JF-17B is never want to be develop by China but on insistent and based on friendship with Pakistan. AVIC take on these project and complete it according to Pakistan requirement for a twin seat fighter plane. And you know why JF-17B has those ugly hinges on the canopy purposely design by AVIC designer?

And do you know that JF-17B is a direct compete with AVIC L-15B fighter project? Which is a big reason why AVIC never wanted such project. Again, its insistent from Pakistan and on your account, we complete it for you.

 

[Tank131]

He was being sarcastic

No he wasnt. What can pakistan make for its aeronautical industry by itself? It can assemble, sure, but its aviation sector is truly in its infancy. It has no ability to design much beyond some low to mid level UAVs, it has not wind tunnels to test those models. There are talks about some AESA Radar research but nothing concrete. There is not enough metallurgical experience in the country to even speak of creating or researching toward a jet engine. There is limited missile development (mostly restricted to SSM or ASM). There is something to build on, but it is in its infancy. Nothing to deride though as it only was truly invested in starting in the early 2000s.

India, though we seei to deride it, has research into design (though hasnt really produced much), into radars, a2a missiles and jet engines. While its labour's haven't yielded much fruit, the foundations are there, it is a toddler.

South Korea is far ahead of Pakistan having designed and built its own fighter from scratch, it was able to produce a fighter very similar to JF-17. Yes it used some off the shelf tech from USA but the design work and radar houses are local. Manufacturing is also 100% in house and between its fighter, trainer and attack variants, it has build 200+ models on its own. Jf-17 has 150 copies built with Chinese assistance. Toddler to young child.

Brazil has a far better aviation sector with embraer than Pakistan. It just hasn't focused on fighter applications.

Turkey has been manufacturing parts for F-16,assembling F-16, AND giving MLU for F-16 for decades. It has thriving weapons design houses (Pakistan has a handful and their scope this far is limited). Turkey has radar houses Pakistan doesnt. Turkey is advanced drones, Pakistan is buying from turkey. Same in FGFA. Turkey is by far out of ahead of Pakistan. But again, has been had an advanced aviation sector for few decades.

The other countries have the pluses and minuses but arent trying to make fighter aircraft as it is cheaper to buy it off shelf than invest in local development. And due to their geopolitical position they arent in need of safe pathways free of coercion.

 

[Beast]

No he wasnt. What can pakistan make for its aeronautical industry by itself? It can assemble, sure, but its aviation sector is truly in its infancy. It has no ability to design much beyond some low to mid level UAVs, it has not wind tunnels to test those models. There are talks about some AESA Radar research but nothing concrete. There is not enough metallurgical experience in the country to even speak of creating or researching toward a jet engine. There is limited missile development (mostly restricted to SSM or ASM). There is something to build on, but it is in its infancy. Nothing to deride though as it only was truly invested in starting in the early 2000s.

India, though we seei to deride it, has research into design (though hasnt really produced much), into radars, a2a missiles and jet engines. While its labour's haven't yielded much fruit, the foundations are there, it is a toddler.

South Korea is far ahead of Pakistan having designed and built its own fighter from scratch, it was able to produce a fighter very similar to JF-17. Yes it used some off the shelf tech from USA but the design work and radar houses are local. Manufacturing is also 100% in house and between its fighter, trainer and attack variants, it has build 200+ models on its own. Jf-17 has 150 copies built with Chinese assistance. Toddler to young child.

Brazil has a far better aviation sector with embraer than Pakistan. It just hasn't focused on fighter applications.

Turkey has been manufacturing parts for F-16,assembling F-16, AND giving MLU for F-16 for decades. It has thriving weapons design houses (Pakistan has a handful and their scope this far is limited). Turkey has radar houses Pakistan doesnt. Turkey is advanced drones, Pakistan is buying from turkey. Same in FGFA. Turkey is by far out of ahead of Pakistan. But again, has been had an advanced aviation sector for few decades.

The other countries have the pluses and minuses but arent trying to make fighter aircraft as it is cheaper to buy it off shelf than invest in local development. And due to their geopolitical position they arent in need of safe pathways free of coercion.

Mind you, South Korea has a robust industries and is a 1.8 trillion USD economy. There is no doubt money is critical in developing complex military platform. To compare South Korea (1.8 trillion economy ) vs Pakistan (200 billion economy ) is totally not a realistic comparison. Not to mention India as 3 trillion economy. Even just as an assembler for Pakistan, is already an achievement.

 

[LKJ86]

Let me repeat. JF-17 is a project wanted by PAF. From start to end, PLAAF never wanted JF-17 becos we have our own J-10 program.

And now we have somebody throwing false accusation claiming PLAAF promised to induct JF-17 into PLAAF and PAF which is bluntly lies just trying to shove blame on China. Shown me an official statement by PLAAF that they will induct JF-17 into PLAAF and then they back off from this statement...

PLAAF's demands are not the same as those of PAF.
The name, FC-1, means a lot.

 

[MastanKhan]

Disagree.

There are more than 200 countries in the world, only P5, Sweden, Japan, Germany and Italy, whose fighter aircraft manufacturing is significantly stronger than that of Pakistan. India, Brazil, South Korea, Spain, Israel, Canada, Australia, Türkiye and other countries are at a similar level with Pakistan. More than 100 countries are significantly weaker than Pakistan.

So if Pakistan is just a child, then there are more than 100 countries just fertilized eggs.

Hi,

The highlighted is correct---.