SAC - FC-31 Grey Falcon Stealth aircraft for PAF : Updates & Debate

[Blacklight]

It depends.

The starting point is the PAF setting its general requirements. I think this part was complete with the "first conceptual design phase" of the project. The PAF wants a twin-engine jet with super-cruising capability. We can assume the PAF is also looking for enough capacity for delivering SOWs.

So AvRID should have an idea of what kind of engine it wants.

It will now look at the market to see what's available.

IIRC the safer route is to select and engine and then design the fighter around it. The PAF is indeed waiting for a Chinese (or some ITAR-free engine available to it, the only non-Chinese route is Turkey tbh).

Yes, the engine would be developed for someone else's needs, but they're functionally the same across the board that it's not an issue as long as the ASR is met.

I do think we should hedge with the Turks, especially if they're open to two engine programs (i.e., the 130 kN for their TF-X and a 90+ kN for their LIFT Hurjet -- we can fund the latter engine).

Hypothetical question: Lets say J-31 with PAF customization is selected. What happens to AZM?

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

And you believe him?

Why on earth should the USA have even the slightest saying in if or if not to export the FC-31?

Of course not but his argument is that FC-31 is stolen technology of F-22 or F-35 that the US is willing to fight a war over should China build it.

But ofcourse it's already been built, at least 3 prototypes of it.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Hypothetical question: Lets say J-31 with PAF customization is selected. What happens to AZM?

Depends.

If AZM was always meant to be a developmental effort, it would continue as our indigenous project. But if we were to pick-up FC-31/J-35, then I think we would likely steer AZM into a heavyweight, strike-focused aircraft.

OTOH, if we were always going to focus on one platform, then one of two things:

1. We pick up FC-31 and, more or less, close the book on AZM.

2. We pick up FC-31 and work on AZM as a means to develop our R&D base. So, we may not even produce our own fighter per se, but we could develop flight control tech, composites, avionics, etc. We use that basis to localize our inputs for the J-35, or we take on a 6th-gen fighter much later on.

 

[CrazyZ]

Depends.

If AZM was always meant to be a developmental effort, it would continue as our indigenous project. But if we were to pick-up FC-31/J-35, then I think we would likely steer AZM into a heavyweight, strike-focused aircraft.

OTOH, if we were always going to focus on one platform, then one of two things:

1. We pick up FC-31 and, more or less, close the book on AZM.

2. We pick up FC-31 and work on AZM as a means to develop our R&D base. So, we may not even produce our own fighter per se, but we could develop flight control tech, composites, avionics, etc. We use that basis to localize our inputs for the J-35, or we take on a 6th-gen fighter much later on.

I believe the Chinese will develop FC-31 into a good 5 gen fighter in a few years that will be availble for purchase. My opinion is AZM should go one of two ways....either be more land/naval strike oriented AC....or be a lesser 5 gen aircraft, a stealthy air frame but with off the shelve j10 components. Some thing that could get into service quick but may lack some features like super cruise.

6th gen is a bit of a gimmick right now...they will be more of an evolution of 5th gen. Not a big leap.

 

[MastanKhan]

Private sector can design but can it deliver? Look at the failed project like the LCA Flying Rickshaw for an example.

Do we know the reasons why FC-31 has still not been inducted by a single air force?

@MastanKhan says it's because the US won't allow it.

Hi,

When it came out---there was a case of massive retaliation by the US---not military necessarily---but sanctions of other kind. The US took it as a personal insult to its integrity---.

But today---the US does not care if the chinese proceed further in that field---.

What has come to knowledge of the US is that the chinese are still far behind in the power plant technology and electronics---. Even though they have come up with very potent BVR missiles that have looked good and promising on paper---the americans have moved ahead in leaps and bounds---.

The technological breakthrough that the US has made---has made the US able and capable to produce extremely extremely potent weapons systems in a very short time.

Just remember---what mattered to the US 5 years ago---may not matter to them 5 years later---. Because they have spent those 5 years assessing analyzing and over coming that concern---.

 

[Figaro]

Do we know the reasons why FC-31 has still not been inducted by a single air force?

Because it was a privately funded project without the support of the Chinese military. Note the FC-31 was basically SAC's, the company which lost the bid for the fifth generation fighter project now known as J-20, attempt to develop a fifth generation fighter. Since it found no interest in the PLAAF, it switched its gears to export, which as you know was not successful (after all, who would want to purchase a demonstrator aircraft not even wanted by the Chinese military?). But in recent years, the naval offshoot of the FC-31, the J-35, has been possibly backed by the Chinese military for the 5th generation carrier fighter and as such has made a huge leap forward over the latest FC-31 prototypes that came out in 2016. Now, most of SAC's effort/resources is directed towards the J-35 as opposed to the FC-31, which has not made significant improvements. I have heard the FC-31 and J-35, while originating from the same base, have parted ways significantly so it is much more likely Pakistan will induct the J-35 (or its export variant) as opposed to the FC-31.

@MastanKhan says it's because the US won't allow it.

Nonsense. The Chinese MIC has already been sanctioned beyond relief since 1989 ...

Hi,

When it came out---there was a case of massive retaliation by the US---not military necessarily---but sanctions of other kind. The US took it as a personal insult to its integrity---.

But today---the US does not care if the chinese proceed further in that field---.

What has come to knowledge of the US is that the chinese are still far behind in the power plant technology and electronics---. Even though they have come up with very potent BVR missiles that have looked good and promising on paper---the americans have moved ahead in leaps and bounds---.

The technological breakthrough that the US has made---has made the US able and capable to produce extremely extremely potent weapons systems in a very short time.

Just remember---what mattered to the US 5 years ago---may not matter to them 5 years later---. Because they have spent those 5 years assessing analyzing and over coming that concern---.

I highly highly doubt the Chinese military gives a second's thought about the US' personal integrity. This argument is absolutely senseless.

 

[LKJ86]

Of course not but his argument is that FC-31 is stolen technology of F-22 or F-35 that the US is willing to fight a war over should China build it.

But ofcourse it's already been built, at least 3 prototypes of it.

Yep, China even can steal something that USA doesn't have.

Besides, don't forget that who is really the king of hacking in the world.

 

[LKJ86]

Because it was a privately funded project without the support of the Chinese military. Note the FC-31 was basically SAC's, the company which lost the bid for the fifth generation fighter project now known as J-20, attempt to develop a fifth generation fighter. Since it found no interest in the PLAAF, it switched its gears to export, which as you know was not successful (after all, who would want to purchase a demonstrator aircraft not even wanted by the Chinese military?). But in recent years, the naval offshoot of the FC-31, the J-35, has been possibly backed by the Chinese military for the 5th generation carrier fighter and as such has made a huge leap forward over the latest FC-31 prototypes that came out in 2016. Now, most of SAC's effort/resources is directed towards the J-35 as opposed to the FC-31, which has not made significant improvements. I have heard the FC-31 and J-35, while originating from the same base, have parted ways significantly so it is much more likely Pakistan will induct the J-35 (or its export variant) as opposed to the FC-31.

It is impossible for PLA to develop two completely different 5th-generation fighters almost at the same time. (J-20 made its maiden flight in 2011, and FC-31 in 2012)

From the beginning, J-20 is a PLAAF-led project basing on China's whole aviation industry (not just AVIC), and FC-31 are just SAC's technology demonstrators.

After J-20 is inducted into service, it is time to develop J-35.

 

[ziaulislam]

Depends.

If AZM was always meant to be a developmental effort, it would continue as our indigenous project. But if we were to pick-up FC-31/J-35, then I think we would likely steer AZM into a heavyweight, strike-focused aircraft.

OTOH, if we were always going to focus on one platform, then one of two things:

1. We pick up FC-31 and, more or less, close the book on AZM.

2. We pick up FC-31 and work on AZM as a means to develop our R&D base. So, we may not even produce our own fighter per se, but we could develop flight control tech, composites, avionics, etc. We use that basis to localize our inputs for the J-35, or we take on a 6th-gen fighter much later on.

pakistan needs a stop gap fighter till azm comes online in 2035..
that fighter should either be western 4.5 gen(f16b70) or Chinese 5th gen fighter

unless ofcourse the chinese think pakistan as strategic patner and are helping out on azm secretly, this might acce azm to 2030 time line(highly unlikly, chinese dont think this way)

 

[MastanKhan]

Nonsense. The Chinese MIC has already been sanctioned beyond relief since 1989 ...

I highly highly doubt the Chinese military gives a second's thought about the US' personal integrity. This argument is absolutely senseless.

Hi,

You may chose to argue---. I don't.

I am making a statement---. I am telling how it is---.

 

[GreyHat]

I think it depends.

Today, the hi/lo mix makes sense for the PAF because we operate lightweight and medium-weight frames. In addition, our access to medium-weight frames is generally restricted due to cost or other issues. And we are able to make a lightweight airframe at home with China's help.

However, with AZM (or even FC-31) we would get our biggest airframe to-date. The range, payload and on-board electronics/capability restrictions are gone. So, does 'lightweight' or 'medium-weight' even matter if the PAF continually has a fighter that can do everything it needs it to do?

The only reason we'd maintain multiple fighter types is (1) to fulfil niche roles and (2) the cost of twin-engine jets is too high for sustaining a single fighter fleet.

I don't know how much of a factor cost will be since we will have to evaluate the fighter on a cost-per-flight-hour basis. China's economies-of-scale could make the WS-19 a generally affordable system, for example.

Now if we're talking about (2) -- e.g., a dedicated stealth strike fighter or light-bomber -- then that's probably a different story.

Well I think it will be very hard to satisfy a single frame that can excel in everything. Two Countries are struggling to perfect their 5th Generation Jet(China & Russia) both of them are looking for a 2nd main as well, having different attributes in them.

One can argue that they are making it, because the prominent defence companies in their environment have to produce results. But, YF-23 comes in special contention here because firstly, it was not persued(Although YF-17 was rejected but still persued by Navy for F-18).But, such need was not felt at ATF(YF-22 , YF-23) times. But now, not only F-35 is there, A hybrid of f-22 & f-35 is in contention as well. I am assuming that It is specifically because both might lack(or deficiencies for better use of words) in some specific department.

For Pakistan, Yes, Opening to a MWF, gives them alot of space to play with, But I don't think up until the development of 5th Generation fighter jets at least, Pakistan would not "bat an eye" for fighter jet makers or system makers that are currently superior than our position at this moment.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

pakistan needs a stop gap fighter till azm comes online in 2035..
that fighter should either be western 4.5 gen(f16b70) or Chinese 5th gen fighter

unless ofcourse the chinese think pakistan as strategic patner and are helping out on azm secretly, this might acce azm to 2030 time line(highly unlikly, chinese dont think this way)

Is there a series shortage in the PAF that it requires stop gap fighters or is there an urgency for acceleration of Azm for some reason because I don't see the enemy getting a Fifth Generation Fighter any time soon.

 

[python-000]

Is there a series shortage in the PAF that it requires stop gap fighters or is there an urgency for acceleration of Azm for so.e reason because I don't see the enemy getting a Fifth Generation Fighter any time soon.

So my bro, you are saying when our enemy get 5th generation fighter then we start thinking about 5th generation & the world talking about 6th generation...

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

So my bro, you are saying when our enemy get 5th generation fighter then we start thinking about 5th generation & the world talking about 6th generation...

No but you have to know what your up against.

What is Pakistan up against?
230+ Su-30 MKIs
36 Rafales

Where is adversary's Fifth Generation Fighter? Why hasn't the adversary rushed to acquire a Fifth Generation Fighter when the world is researching Sixth Generation Fighters?

So, do explain why Pakistan needs a stop gap fighter (FC-31 / J-35) or Project Azm needs to be accelerated?

 

[Path-Finder]

I don't know what is worse the shooting in the dark or over speculations.