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I don't think this has anything to do with Modi's diplomatic failure. There are two primary reasons for this-
1. Russia sees itself in the role of a nation that defies the prevailing world order. In this regard, it wants to get closer to nations that might be willing to support Russia's actions even when they are not in accordance with what the rest of the world sees as fair. In Pakistan, Russia might find a partner willing to overlook several indiscretions in other parts of the world in return for military and economic cooperation. India can no longer afford to take that position.
2. American influence in Pakistan is anticipated to decline sharply in the coming year, and Russia see a convenient vacuum it wants to fill.
In terms of arming Pakistan, what happens will depend on how the Indian economy does. If India can generate $3-4 billion dollars annually in procurement and joint development with Russia in the next few years, and if that expenditure comes with the rider that Pakistan cannot be engaged beyond a point, defence cooperation with Pakistan will not take off.
We need to watch Putin's visit to India in December- I have a feeling Modi will go all out to woo him.
1. Russia sees itself in the role of a nation that defies the prevailing world order. In this regard, it wants to get closer to nations that might be willing to support Russia's actions even when they are not in accordance with what the rest of the world sees as fair. In Pakistan, Russia might find a partner willing to overlook several indiscretions in other parts of the world in return for military and economic cooperation. India can no longer afford to take that position.
2. American influence in Pakistan is anticipated to decline sharply in the coming year, and Russia see a convenient vacuum it wants to fill.
In terms of arming Pakistan, what happens will depend on how the Indian economy does. If India can generate $3-4 billion dollars annually in procurement and joint development with Russia in the next few years, and if that expenditure comes with the rider that Pakistan cannot be engaged beyond a point, defence cooperation with Pakistan will not take off.
We need to watch Putin's visit to India in December- I have a feeling Modi will go all out to woo him.