I wanted to reply here for several days but my personal affairs got in the way. Anyhow, much has happened since when I first wanted to write but still relevant as my understanding is with respect to Putin's strategy.
Right now, there is a massive disinformation campaign against Russia. I for one believe that Russia had to act at some point and this is quite understandable. Putin has been appealing to the US and the rest of Europe to not put him in this situation. Although the West emerged victorious from the cold war, it failed to disband Nato which was no longer needed. But sometimes politics loves to keep such organisation alive for one reason or the other.
With its core purpose dead i.e. to stand up to the Soviet Union, the West needed a reason to keep this going and it was not easy. How do you continue to fight when you are all alone and victorious? The US attempted to re-purpose its role in Afghanistan and we all know how that turned out. Twenty plus years and nothing to show for it. Despite the slogans the West throws, they are for internal consumption only and they are never sincere with them. The will do away with them when it best serves them. This naked hypocrisy is on full display and it is evident that it was pent up and building for this very moment.
Anyhow, Putin did try to befriend Europe and did open up Russia to the West. Credit should be given where it is due. But it was his bad luck or misery that the West just did not want to be Russia's friend. Instead, the West provoked, as they always do, despite Putin's appeal not to do so. Putin persisted and sought ways to resolve these things diplomatically. However, the West just never wanted to settle for a simple diplomatic solution, they were not done to continue stomping on the successor of the Soviet Union...a "I spit on your grave" angle.
So, the US and allies planned, they always wanted to hurt Russia and never wanted to be friends with it. They wanted to break up Russia further because, lets face it, it was still a formidable state with an arsenal that could hurt the US.
The West schemed and planned for this very day and encroached bit by bit trying so that Russia could take the bait. And Russia took it.
Now, you may think that this is an unfortunate situation for Russia but it is not. Having observed Putin, he is one of the world's most talented leaders and delivers when least expected. He planned just as the West did. What we see now is his plan in motion and it is easy to dismiss it as a failure based on the disinformation campaign.
Putin trialled the West response with the annexation of Crimea. This was the watershed moment for Russia. This was the time to call bluff on Nato and its allies. They made a lot of noise and failed. This was a warning to Ukraine to not challenge Russia any further. Since 2014 till 2022 i.e. eight years is what it took for Putin to exhaust all options with the West while preparing new options with the East.
Putin did not take the bait, he has made a calculated move against a move the West played years ago. To the West, Putin has taken the bait and is unleashing its strategy based on that. Unfortunately for the West, this is not the 80s or 90s anymore. The days are gone when the leader "of the free world" would instantaneously command all democracies to fall in line against USSR. Russia, has done well to open up and deal with several democracies, it has crept in and on them and addressed their interests. It has fractured that alliance which is now getting tested.
Russia has played its cards pretty well. It is the one of the largest producers of Oil and Gas. Its major market is Europe. It has integrated with the western system, a ploy to play by their rules to be accepted, to be let in. It knows that severe sanctions can and will be imposed upon it
Lets now see where Russia stands:
1) The war in Ukraine does not end the demand for oil & gas. The price per barrel has shot up and may well go higher. Can the West afford such high oil prices? The US may be delighted but it will not give charity.
2) Cutting Russia off Swift is a double edged sword. Yes, it will affect Russia's interest in Europe but what if this pushes Russia to adopt CIPS instead? This will be a profound change and will give Putin immense leverage and the stick to break Nato.
Now, imagine a scenario:
The West has cut Russia off completely, and thoroughly sanctioned. Russia, stops the flow of Oil & Gas and food production to the West. The price oil per barrel is now $130 and every oil producer is merry except Russia.
Then Russia announces it is selling oil at $80 per barrel via CIPS. What do you think will happen? Germany, Turkey and others will be keen to get their hands on this oil. But they are part of the Western bloc and staunch Nato members. They decide to find a way around the current sanctions and start trading.
Eventually, every Western country finds out and this brings about disunity in Nato's ranks. Clearly, it will be obvious that Russia is not the USSR but a country that is selling cheaper oil. Its all a matter of interests for the western countries at the end of the day. This will effectively shatter Nato.
This is just an example of what is to come. The time and era is gone for Nato. The western sanctions and dominance is near its end. This is going to hasten that. Putin has gambled and placed the bait and the west has happily taken it thinking they are outsmarting Putin. Time will tell who is the ultimate loser.
Emotions are high for the west and common sense is absent. Let the war go on for some more days and weeks, then it will no longer be headlines. Ukraine will slip into the background and the momentum in disinformation will be lost. When the effects of sanctions on Russia are felt back home, many Western countries will break rank and file. That is when Nato will be finished and Putin would have won.
