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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

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@jhungary hey man.

Would like to read your take on Russian war plan and where did it go wrong as per your opinion. Thanks in advance.

I did a Day 4 and Day 7 analysis and I went in detail on what Russia War Plan/Goal is and what did the Russia (and Ukrainian) had done wrong.

Day 4
Foreword

Okay, so, I’ve got an email from a PDF member ask me to comment on the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022. I am not going to say who, but the same member asked me to comment on the US withdraw from Afghanistan last year, I wasn’t about to comment on that as I see no military value to talk about a military withdrawal. But I think this war has a lot of military value people can learn from and this is the first conventional war the Russia fought post Soviet Union, so I am going to give you a no-BS assessment on the situation

For those who know me, you know what I do for a living (Or what I used to do), and for those who don’t know, I was a former US Army Infantry Officer, served 2 tours in the middle east. And I like to comment all things military.

This post will look at Military situation in Ukraine, and I may also answer some of the most commonly asked question. But majority this will be like the Military Report I used to write.



Russian invasion of Ukraine, 2022.



Introduction


On 0500 Europe Eastern time, 24th February 2022, Russian start a special military operation. The Russian invaded Ukraine with 3 Arms, over the North via Belarus , Over the south from Crimea Occupied Territories, and Over the East via Donetsk and Luhansk. Russian force are said to be between 180,000 to 200,000 Ukrainian force are said to be between 210,000-240,000

Tactical Consideration for Ukraine

Ukraine has 3 Tactical Considerations

  1. Defend of Capital Kyiv
  2. Defend of the Western Corridor (From Brest to Odessa) to keep the logistic afloat
  3. Avoid being capitulation of government.

Tactical Consideration for Russia

There are also 3 tactical considerations for Russia
  1. Occupied Kyiv
  2. Locate and Secure the current Ukrainian government
  3. Install a Pro-Russian Government

Strategic Consideration for Ukraine

There is only one, repel the Russian Invasion

Strategic Consideration for Russia

There are 2 strategic considerations for Russia.

  1. Occupy the country
  2. Overturn the Government of Ukraine

Current Situation in Ukraine

As of 27 February, 2022 5pm AEST, Russia have launched a 3 pronged attack, A north arm attack across the Belarusian Border. That force is currently surrounding Kyiv. Another prong is from the south, Now currently outside Kherson, and the Amphibous element are landed in both Odessa and Mariupol, and the third prong is attacking from the East, surrounding Kharkiv and Sumy, and also launching a double envelopment on Mariupol


Refer to this map here

View attachment 819277

My Appraisement

First of all, this is the fourth day of war; the first thing to notice is that none of the Ukraine City has fallen to Russia. That is surprising for me, because I am expecting some heavy fighting in the Eastern and Southern city, and with overwhelming infantry, air and artillery support, Russia should have been able to at least secure Kharkiv or Odessa which is closest to Russian starting point.

Another issue I have found is that the land Russia travel is quite short. Considering Soviet Armor assault usually travel 10 km per hour, which mean by now, they should have covered more than 450KM (15 hours a day, with 9 hours rest) Judging by the map, there are no where near that 450km limit.

Now going back to General Detail, Russia attack along the North/South and East axis, preceded by Missile Strike (approximately 200 cruise missile was launched) follow by CAS and Helicopter gunship strike. With Armor column closing the gap and Airborne unit secure important objective (such as Antonov Airport).

Now, this is different than conventional US attack where US would launch a single spear Armor attack supported by gunship and CAS, which tell me 3 things.

  1. Russia is in a hurry
  2. Russia is try to maximize territorial gain
  3. Russia is splitting their command and support structure.

So what does that mean? First attack with 3 prongs 100 of kilometre apart would mean they have separated their logistic zone and support zone, which mean each prong would have their own staging area, logistic and resupply element, air/ground support element. In other words, the invading force is diverse.

This could mean good thing and bad things for Ukrainian. Good thing is, Russia force is diluted, instead of facing a giant fist of 50,000-70,000 troops, Ukrainian is facing 3 front with 20,000 troop each, diluted troop concentration is susceptible to Ukrainian harassment, plus, these troop are supposed to secure key city and infrastructure. Which call into doubt whether it is doable for them to work, not to mention the risk of being defeated in detail, which if one arm failed, the whole operation gone kaput (unless there are reinforcement, which I would assume)

The Bad thing is, the general area Ukraine is focusing on is going to be huge. And as a general rules, if you defend every inch of your country, you defend nothing.

The second thing I noticed is that if the Russian sole goal is to relieve Ukrainian government, then they would have done what we had done during Iraq war, we concentrate our effort to go into Baghdad and secure the government and then fan out and secure the individual objective (like TV station, airport, port, village and so on) But Russian did not do that, suggesting their motive is territorial gain. Ie capture and occupied as many land as you can.

On the other hand, Ukraine seems to be playing a territorial defence role, where each element was assigned a sector to protect, I personally will not choose this except for Kyiv, if I am outgun and outnumber, I will choose a more dynamic defence rather than a static defence, organise your Brigade into mobile brigade, conduct hit and run on the Russian invading route. That way I can protect more with fewer troops. But then I will have to concede that in order to do that, Ukraine intelligence must be up to the task, maybe they think their intelligence is not up to the game? Or maybe they prefer to defend this way? I don’t know.

Another observation from me is that Ukraine process a strong will to fight, so it is highly unlikely that Ukraine will do an Afghanistan. People are staying there, most likely fight to their death.

My Assessment

My first assessment is Russia highly probable underestimate the Ukrainian defence. They either anticipate Ukrainian defence will crumble once they encounter Russian troop, or they have expected a lower capability to hold back Russian Troop. Form the fact that Russia willing to split their operation into 3, it said they expected light resistance

Also I would say Russia failed to capture many first day objective, Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkiv should be the first day objective on the first phase line, all three cities still in Ukrainian hand as of 27 Feb. 22, and I would say Russian schedule is between 48-72 hours late. By now the 3 prongs should have converge over Kyiv by now. The key for Russian operation is speed, as Putin put it, Russia are there to liberate Ukrainian brother and “Demilitarize and Denazify the Neo Nazi regime in Ukraine” and emphasis on the objective being military, not civilian, which mean what Putin is selling is a Crimea style take over. And it won’t work if this operation is taking a long time, because if it take any longer than 2 or even 3 weeks, people will start asking question why the people in Ukraine has not risen up yet

Also, key infrastructure in Ukraine is still on, things like electricity, telephone, internet, TV station and Radio station, which mean Russia have not either destroy/taken over them yet, which also tell you that Russia is behind their schedule, those things should have been targeted within the first 48 hours. Controlling information should be Russian first day objective too.

Another assessment from me is the Russian pre-invasion bombardment is not effective. You can see Ukraine still able to sorties after day 4. As I said many time here before, missile cannot be used to disable enemy infrastructure. By this point, Russia should have obtain complete air superiority because their battle plan depends on Air Mobile Troop, and helicopter is prone to Anti-Air attacks.

My Prediction

First thing first, I don’t believe Ukraine can survive this war, the number from Russia is just too many, too close, there will be heroic defences, but if we took the entire Russia might and compare to Ukrainian might, there are absolutely no contest. Russia currently are using approximately 1/8 to 1/10 of the national force, which mean even if Ukraine be able to fend off the first wave, this 200,000 Russian soldier currently surrounding Ukraine. There are no way they will survive the next, and the next and the next.

On the other hand, how much Russia are willing to give is another issue, because this is not a popular war in Russia, and all the factor give me the impression that Russia has seriously underestimating Ukraine warfighting capability. As this drag on, this is going to be bad for Russia. Yes, theoretically, Russia can send enough soldier to flood Ukraine, but can they do it without public support is another matter, because anything after this 200,000 soldier will require another mobilisation, by then the public would ask why, if this is just a Crimea style take over. It will create problem for Russian draft, and it may also have wide range of protest and push back from Public.

Another issue is we called “War Chest” ie, how much money you can use to wage war. Keep in mind, Russia economy performed quite badly these last 2 years due to COVID, which mean the economy is not going to be good, now with Western sanction, it will further hamper Russia ability to raise money for war, and without money, you get no replacement part, you can’t pay your soldier etc and that will create a whole other morale problem. Current estimation on Russian war chest is 60 billions. Which will probably last them 2 months. After that, money have to some how be raised to continue the war. But that is before Western Sanction kicks in. So the current war chest for Russia is unknown, as Western countries had frozen Russian Asset and cease their debt raising capability and had been kicked out SWIFT.

On the other hand, Ukraine is currently sitting on a better situation than what I expect, or what NATO expected. NATO just announced they will send in Missile, SAM and other supplies to Ukraine 3 days after the war, which suggested that the initial NATO estimation is that Ukraine should have folded within the first 3 days. So no doubt 4 days passed and Russia still has not gain any meaningful ground.

The tradition Russia tactics would suggest a massive bombardment and carpet bombing to city center and military staging point to accelerate their time table, but I seriously doubt they are going to do that, after all these “Brother” speech, because once you send in Tu-95 or Tu-160, then Russian would have no doubt that this is going to target their “brother” This will alter the public narrative.

All in all, as with any invasion, the 7th day is the major point, that’s when your initial LogPak (Logistic Package) runs out, by then they should have been able to set up Forward Arming and Refuelling Point (FARP). Now this is important, because by day 7, they should have set it up beyond the first phase line (after Kyiv) if they still have not taken Kyiv and other objective, then the Russian have to set up their FARP behind their line, which mean they will need to retreat from their position back to FRAP to refuel and rearm, which mean it will further hamper with the time table.

Another issue I can foresee is that looking at the last 4 days, we probably anticipating a insurgency campaign even after Russian conquered entire Ukraine, which in itself is a long time away, I don’t see Ukrainian force drop their weapon and flee across the country, and that is very important, it show us that Ukrainian have the will to fight back. Now, what happened after Kyiv felt or Zelenskyy is captured is unknown, that may hamper the Ukrainian will but that remained to be seen

Common Question

Why NATO is not sending boots on the ground?


NATO direct involvement is a non-starter, because it will play into Putin’s narrative, which would mean the public will support Putin perspective more than they have now. And as I said, Public support is a key to Putin’s operation. Especially if Putin needed a next round of mobilisation.

So, any NATO boots on the ground will expand the war, which make it complicated, and if war expanded, Ukraine will be lost anyway (as said before I don’t think Ukraine can withstand a total invasion from Russia) and the battle will spill over to other NATO member, namely Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Romania.

And Russia will most likely resort to Nuclear Weapon if this happen because there are no way Russia can in turn survive an NATO onslaught

What can Ukraine do to win the war?

Well, the chance of Ukrainians winning this conventional fight is slim, very slim, it’s about 10% chances, it is that slim. But it’s not undoable.

The first thing Ukraine need to do is to keep dragging this on, the longer this war drag on, the longer Russia support aboard, most importantly China, will wean, the Chinese are not that keen on a war between Russia and Ukraine to begin with, as Ukraine is a important strategic partner with China, Chinese first and second carrier are serious Ukraine input and Chinese aviation was helped by Antonov a lot to develop their home grown fighter jet, which mean the longer the war drag on, the bigger of the mess it create, and this won’t go well to China.

Another thing is that as the war drag on, more and more Russia will suffer from the sanction the west have just dished out. Which mean it hamper Russia material and warfighting capability, that inturn interrupt equipment replacement and resupply, to issue such as food, water, fuel and transport?

And finally, Ukraine can make this war as unpleasant to Russian as possible. It wont affect the soldier side because Russian Army is a professional force, but home support largely depends on this is a clean, quick operation, and if Ukrainian can make this war unclean and slow, this will help alter Public Opinion.

Would this war achieve what Russian or Putin want?

No. It will not achieve what Putin want In term of Political and Strategic objective. In fact, it will do the opposite.

First of all, the Casus Belli for Putin is in two. 1.) Ukraine permanently bar form NATO. 2.) NATO stops their eastern expansion.

While Ukraine can be sway into not joining NATO, but NATO will not stop expanding just because Russia said so. In fact, this war will give the country on the fence more stacks to join NATO after seeing the naked aggression of what Russia will do to its perceived enemy. Country like Moldova, Sweden and Finland will probably look at NATO membership to ensure their own survival, BECAUSE of this Russian invasion.

Second of all, this is a no gain operation, because the best outcome for Russia to hope for is a pre-2014 Ukraine, that is pro-Russia, since NATO never had Ukraine (or even intent to have them) which mean this is going to be a status quo, which mean the best Russia can hope for is a draw, and that is if Ukraine did not raise an insurgency and Russia survive this round of Sanction. So literally any other option for Russia is a lost.

Will China invade Taiwan now that they see NATO Inactiveness on Ukraine issue?

Highly unlikely. First of all, China and Taiwan did not share a land border. Which mean whatever timetable China on invading and regain Taiwan is based on their Naval And Air capability, and at this point, China is yet to achieve neither capability to launch an invasion to do so.

Second, China is not Russia, Russia economy is almost bottomed out, sanction on Russia does not really work that good because Russia economy has been stagnate since 2013. Chinese Economy on the other hand, depend largely on European and American market. Sanction on the scale of the one that Russia having is going to reek devastation to Chinese economy. Think about it, if China cannot trade with US, EU and country like Australia, Japan and South Korea, who can they trade with? Africa is not a nice or even tempting market and Middle East are traditional US allies.

Which mean Sanction would be more than enough to deter China from invading Taiwan, at least for now.

Day 7

Russia – Ukrainian War 2022

Day 7 Update

Introduction
as stated before, I will write another write up on the 7th day of the war, because today will be a major milestone of an initial war, and the 7th day mark is always a good indicator as how both side fare and what would happen latter on.

This article will deal with matter that’s purely military, not the BS take from either side political. I tried to be as neutral as possible in this write up and just look at the military decision made up to this point as a former Military Officer myself.

CURRENT SITUATION
View attachment 820443

This is the current tactical map as of 1700 03/03/2022 AEST

As the map suggested, Russian gain are largely unchanged since day 4. With the exception of some small city (Berdiansk, Melitopo) Kherson is in doubt as of the time of writing. While Mariupol and Kharkiv is still under siege, and Kyiv is about to.

That suggested a 96-120 hours delay of the objective on the Russian side, and that is a serious delay on the time table and this is, in my opinion, is going to affect the long term strategic goal for Russia negatively.

Also worth notice that the Russian vector of invasion does not cover all the rural area, so that may have a detrimental effect on Russia’s war goal, that mean the spearhead can be attacked and flanked and the route of advance is not completely secure

What is cleared to see also is the method of operation has changed from the original multi-pronged surgical fast strike into more of a siege warfare. With Russia laying siege on several Ukrainian cities (At this point, Kharkiv and Mairupol)

TACTICAL ANALYSIS

Tactically the Russian have the upper hand, with their invasion vector largely be able to carry out what they were planned to carry out without much resistance, resistance, however, is expected in heavily populated city center.

On Russian part, the pressure is building around major city such as Kharkiv and Kyiv, and hopefully delivers a decisive blow to the Ukrainian government. The center of gravity is still Kyiv, which would have been the first or second day objective, now 7 days in, the city still stand

On Ukrainian part, the tactical situation is that they do not have enough people (trained people, not Territorial Defence Force) to defend every inch of the country, and the Ukrainian are poised to defend every major city, and probably using smaller city and vita infrastructure as point of delay attack.

Russia route of advance also speak volume, the multi-axis attack aimed at destablising the Ukrainian government has stymied, with advance now slow in the north and east, while the southern advance is the only advance that see some territorial gain. Which suggesting the Russian is focusing on cutting the coastline from Ukraine. And to do that, two major cities have to be taken. Odessa and Mauripol, as of now, both remain in Ukrainian hand.

On the other hand, the Russia tactics seems to be trying to divided the country by pinning the majority of Ukrainian regular troop in the East (with the greatest concentration, 6 Brigade and the West and isolate the North to South Axis, which is where most of the fight as of now, took place.

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

First of all, several strategic mistake were committed on both side

Ukrainian Mistake

The prime mistake the Ukrainian made is the ignoring of US/UK intelligence that Russia is going to invade as early as November 2021. Had Ukrainian act on the US/UK intelligence and mobilise in November 2021, they could have doubled the effective Military size, given the training and equipment to arm them would have provided within that 3 months. (Bear in mind US Army basic infantry course is just 13 weeks) This will make the Russian advance a lot harder.

Another issue I have found with how Ukrainian conduct its warfare is that I don’t think the Ukrainian have effectively used the rural area at all, If you look at the vector of advance, those area are unguarded, which mean a single mobile Brigade utilising the rural area would have detrimental effect on the Russian advance. Take the 40 mile convoy for example, a mobile brigade moving between area would have caused havoc in these slow moving convoy in a series of hit and run. However, Ukrainian, also using former Soviet Union tactics, (basically what we see here is Russia fighting Russia) dictate static defence, the “never give an inch” style last stand defence.

Inability to defend or denied Russia use of key infrastructure. The first stage of battle see Russia try to invade south thru the forest area and got beaten down by Ukrainian defence, and only finding undefended roadway to travel, numerous time we can see the local, not military ( from the video of the man offer to tow the Russian BMP to numerous civilian crowded the advancing Russian on the street) Sure, As I said there are not enough troop to lay ambush but that does not mean they cannot deploy delay action or rear guard action on those Russian, or at the very lease “Mined” the area, which I know for sure the road is not mined because civilian still use it for travel (either that or Ukrainian really have some balls)

Russian Mistake

Logistics – A great USMC general once said “Amateur talks Tactics, Professional study Logistic” (Which would make me an Amateur)…. Anyway, logistic is probably THE problem the Russian military is facing at this point. A I mentioned day 7 is crucial because that would be the time when your original LOGPAK runs out and you are going to look for FARP or Forward Fuel Depot for gas. This is exactly what the 40 mile convoy supposed to do, only that they are stuck on the way to Kyiv, they were supposed to be in Kyiv, ALREADY by now. I don’t know what you see in that 40 mile convoy, for me it spell under prepare. First, you don’t run anything that long, that slow inside the enemy territories and front line. That is a prime target. Second, a 40 mile convoy means they are depending on trucks to resupply, this would be okay for what we called “general store” item such as toilet paper, replacing clothing or furniture, but not Priority item such as food, ammunition and gas. Those are brought in by air. Which bring me to mistake number 2

Russia has NOT achieved total superiority. 7 days in, we can still see aerial engagement between the two country, Drone are continue to fly as usual, not too many airfield is captured by the VDV (In fact, they had only capture one, Antonov Airfield but we still getting unconfirmed report stating they are still fighting in there. Compare to OIF, 173 ABN Brigade took Bashur on day 5, and turn it to logistic hub for the eventual Battle for Baghdad, British Captured Basra International Airport on day 4. It is one thing not to be able to neutralise enemy air power, but another thing not to Capture and turn the airfield into use on future engagement. Judging from the dependence of ground convoy, Russia are either unable or unwilling to use airport as a supply route. Which mean long traffic jam and people don’t know where they are going. And I don’t see a red ball system here.

Initial Miscalculation, what almost everyone expected when Russian started this war is that they are going to break Ukraine as a matter of days, not weeks. NATO did not supply Ukraine weapon and other supply until day 4 suggesting NATO planner think they are going to fold in the first 3 days, and do so only realise they are still within their reasonable parameter of resistance. So why this is like this? For starter, I think Russia seriously underestimated Ukrainian Warfighting capability, this is what I will think because I myself don’t think Ukrainian would put up such as fight. On another ends, we see Russian using inadequate and sometime unmotivated troop to fight the war. War is a nasty business, who you choose for your campaign matter as much as the campaign itself. During D-Day, Omar Bradley specifically requested 1st Infantry division and the Ranger to start the initial phase and a fresh division to support the first wave, that being the first (division) and the Ranger is battle harden and they know what to do, and they need people who are motivated s a fresh division is needed. War does not just fight with random troop you pick up from a random corner of your battlefield; you choose your troop especially for the task. This is NOT done on the Russian part. Which lead to the initial miscalculation.

Multi-Axis Advance, I get it, the initial goal is Kyiv, and the Port city is important too. But the use of multi-axis advance, something very apparent that Russia have no idea how to operate and how to support is an issue, and if you try to attack everywhere at once, and you ended up failing to reach anywhere. If you want Kyiv, concentration your firepower on Kyiv, and then move toward other city along your axis of advance, sure, you can station your force somewhere and pin down enemy concentration, but do so with a more decisive manner. And not committed half the troop here and half the troop there and hoping you can get there on time.

Strategic Limitation

For Ukraine, that’s manpower. Sure, Ukraine has a 45 million population but their available force is just north of 200,000, which mean anyone who are conscript into TDF, they are expected to fight with local garrison and defend their city as a sort of general mobilisation. The tradition Western response to Soviet Tactics is to use a mobile force that can manoeuvre in an around the giant Russia spearhead, once the giant Russian force pin you down, then you are fighting the Russian fight, and mostly game over. And you can’t do that if you only have 200,000 troop know what to do for the entire country

TDF is to bolster the city defence, they are useless as an offensive force, and they also cannot function alone as a defensive force. They are only a supplement.

For Russia, that’s time. The longer it drag on, the more money, manpower and resource intensive the war get, and Russia is running out on all 3. With Russian sanction, and domestic pressure on the war, any sort of “mobilisation” are going to meet resistance, you cannot mobilise unless the public is willing to be mobilised. And with sanction, that is going to hurt Russian capability to pay for material and import material to replace lost, which mean the further it got drag on, the harder for Russia to replace their lost. In effect, you are losing Warfighting Power as time goes by.

RUSSIAN ENDGAME

View attachment 820442


While it’s too early to tell, but by looking at the axis of advance and the preparation and strategic opearation, the end game for Russia is cut the country in half thru a line between Mairupol to Dnipro then to Kyiv (as picture) along with the south end to the west to cover the entire coast, Russia will administer the area left of demarcation line (effectively become Russia territories) and the rest will be administrated by a Russian installed Ukrainian government.

End game is a regime change, with Russian install a government to control Ukraine. With the possible southern end (thru Kherson and Odessa) to be used as a springboard for future territorial gain in Moldova.

PREDICTION

This is still too early to call, before this start I can tell you with 100% certainty that Russia will achieve what they set to achieve, however, now? I am not too sure, I gave the chance of Ukrainian survival 10% on day 4, on day 7, I think the chances improved a bit, I will say Ukrainian have 15-20% chance to defeat the Russian. Because from what I see on the map, the result is far from certain.

If we look at the map, the battle plan and end games depends on several factors, which Russia still has not show they have achieve that even after day 7. The country side is still largely untouched, which means Ukrainian only need to have 1 hand defeated or rendered ineffective, the entire situation would have been turn against Russia. And the black arrow on the maps suggest Russian force axis of advance is prone to getting flank, and if Ukraine can somehow disengage some troop (Maybe a Brigade) to conduct mobile warfare, that would hamper those advance shown in black arrow. On the other hand, US Intelligence suggested that Russia have used 75% of the invasion force, which mean they are running out of tactics reserve, which mean they cannot afford any error, both strategic or tactical. Otherwise, it would have to dip into their strategic reserve, which I don’t know if they have any

On the other hand, if the end game is what I predicted, then Russia would need to take 5 key cities (Mariupol, Odessa, Dnipro, Kyiv and Kharkiv.) None of the 5 were fallen. And Odessa and Dnipro is largely Untouched too. The only one close to falling is Mariupol and Kharkiv but we have been saying this for days. So all these are uncertainty. What’s more? Russia is running out of time. Tradition battle would require a Logistic Update every 7 days, and I don’t see any FARP set up for the first 7, which mean the troop in the frontline is running on empty, and the frontline troop itself needs to be replace every 28 days, you can extend it if you have momentum but Russia lost that in the first 7 days, which mean again, as I said, if by day 21, if all of the key objective is not taken, then there will be a problem, and day 21 is only 13 days away. Can they really do that seeing the first 7 days progress?

Another issue I foresee is that now Russia revert to plan B (or Plan A if you think they should have done it initially), siege warfare and massive artillery bombardment would antagonise Civil Population, you don’t make friend by bombing their home. Which make the future plan for Moscow to install a puppet government in doubt, unless there are continue Russian occupation outside their annexation zone. Which mean insurgent warfare, which will turn Moscow position even more untenable

Future insurgency is also a problem, I am very sure (90%) that Russia will not or cannot occupied the entire country, which mean some part of Ukraine have to be delegated by a unpopular puppet regime (I don’t think there are any doubt no one in Ukraine will support that regime, seeing how far they go to defend Ukraine from Russia) which mean Russia theoretically need to conquer or occupy some part in the West to counter the future insurgency, and given they did not achieve any of their key objective on the first 7, unlikely they are going to get all of them by day 14 and slightly possible for the Russian to go beyond 21 days, it’s virtually impossible at this point the Russian have any ability to wage war simultaneously in the western part of the country, which will make it rebellion central.

And finally, can Russia even lasted that long? Russian economy is, in no other word, crumbing, Russia Rouble lost 30% of value toward USD and other currency due to sanction and despite Russian central bank emergency measure to propped up the currency, which mean they have s far failed to do that, and I can’t see they can ever do that unless China help them, which I don’t currently see this is what Chinese is doing (Hence the freefall) and wonder if China will ever do it in the first place. You need money to keep the war going, and money run dry by day unless you can somehow replenish it, and I failed to see how Russia is going to get the economy back up.

FAQ

Why Russia invasion did not make any head way?


Numerous factor, the most clear is they either miscalculated Ukrainian response, or underestimated Ukrainian ability to defend their country. Either way, this is a strategic error by Russia. Another factor is that they somehow failed to gain Air Superiority over Ukraine, and most likely Russia underestimate EU response to the conflict I Ukraine. EU literally goes all out to help the Ukrainian.

Why Russia did not attack Ukrainian Infrastructure.

This is a good question, many people think that is because Putin have softside with Ukraine, want to leave it untouched as much as possible and easier for them to take over. But if this is the end goal, then a political invasion would be used, and no an actual invasion, you don’t invade people to see if they want to surrender. You invade someone to fight someone, it’s no point BSing yourself or anyone else.

The reason why those item (TV, Radio Station and Power Station) is simple, it no longer a factor. I mean since when is the last time you watch TV? Or Listening to Radio. Today information is all about internet and social media, and while Russia did try to shut down Ukrainian Internet and then Ukrainian switch to Satellite Internet thanks to Elon Musk. Unless Russia send some missile and bring down some Space X satellite, they are not going to take out Ukrainian Internet. Notice that most of Zelenskyy present is social media, since the war start, he is frequently seen on Twitter and Telegram or other social media network. Which mean the value of striking the TV stationor Radio Station have decreased multiple fold since the advance of social media technology and as I said, you cannot shut down Ukrainian internet.

Power on the other had is tricky, bear in mind Ukraine is mostly powered by 5 Nuclear Power Station that was already fuctioning, which mean you cannot bomb them or you are risking a nuclear incident, so the only viable option is to take them by force, which they took 1, Chernobyl, which is off line anyway. Nuclear Power Plant in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Yuzhnoukrainsk and Enerhodar thus continue to provide Ukrainian with power. That probably is the true reason why those are untouched.

Are there any chance Ukrainian could win?

Theoretically, no In Reality? Not sure, first of all, we know two things for sure, the only way for this war to stop is for Russian to stop, Second thing we know is there are not enough Russian troop to occupy the entire country.

So what does that translate to? Even if Ukrainian lost all their major city, that does not mean it’s game over for them, unlike Russian Operation in Syria, this is not done with majority support of the country (Assad held at least 60% of Syria when Russia intervene, the 2 rebel region hold less than 7%) Which mean you are looking at insurgency and continual resistance. Plus EU already announced that they will finance Ukrainian expense, which will make Ukraine look like Soviet Adventure in Afghanistan.

This is going to be hard for Russia, especially with sanction applies.

What is Russia Political or Strategic Gain?

You have to get something in a war, be it money, oil, gold or salt (If you are talking about Roman time) This have no strategic gain other than try to control Ukraine. I am not sure Russia can holdout even if Russia annexed Eastern Ukraine, again, it’s about personal gain more than National Gain. Putin in his mind think Ukraine belong to him with all the Russian rhetoric, but that does not mean so, and there are no Political gain for him either, because the “Political” goal is to push NATO border away from Russia, but what Putin is doing by invading and at least annexing Southern Half of Ukraine is Push the border into NATO, which relatively is the same thing but instead of the 2 NATO member country that border him before (Latvia and Estonia), now is 4 (Latvia, Estonia, Romania and Poland) and may even be 5 if Finland join NATO.

In effect, what Putin is doing is “extending” the border he is facing with NATO. On the other hand, even if he wins, he is looking at the situation of a status quo, only to wind back to 2014. So I don’t actually see any Strategic or Political gain Russia have come out of this.
 
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Do you know what the term "forced conscription" means?

Yes, the Germans did that. Imagine if by December 31, 1944, the entire Wehrmacht would have - rounded up - drafted about 7 million soldiers. It didn't take long for the war to end. From January 1, 1945 to May 8, 1945, more Germans died than before! In the end, the entire Wehrmacht (Heer, Luftwaffe, Kriegsmarine) had called up 16-18 million, you can imagine the qualitative differences. And about 20-25,000 were hanged/shot for "cowardice before the enemy"/desertion.
These are the rules, especially when you have "leaders" who have gone insane and the system is failing.
From 1943 onwards it was dangerous to make jokes about the German "leadership".
 
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Again, we see the same thing happening. Russia could have been an ally but their greatest sin was supporting Syria and Iran

So you think it would have been better if Russia was allied with the west in fighting the Islamic world?
 
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It's not a peace deal in the traditional sense. It's a conditional surrender offer.

Bookmark it. See if the terms get better or worse for Ukraine as time goes on. You can gauge who is winning or losing by who is relaxing conditions and who is making more requests.

lol, you do know there are no territorial change except Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk are changed, any they were already occupied by Russian and separatist since 2014

So, do tell me what kind of surrender offer is "You get the keep the government, and military, and the country and we get to have what we already had before"?? None of the "Surrender Offer" have anything that Putin said at the beginning of the war. Which is "Demilitarize and Denazify" Ukraine.

LOL, and in case you don't know, Russia already LOST the strategic outcome, now NATO are going to have more border (Finland is fast tracking NATO application), more NATO member equipment and more defence budget than Russia, and Russia on the other hand, is going to eat the sanction for which China seems reluctant to bail out. For what? Eastern Ukraine?
 
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Someone is not happy


Russian tactics see this as the case, but that wouldn't happen until they encircle the city which they are doing now.
Oh no - you misunderstand me. I’ve been openly critical about the one sided reporting in some instances at the start of the conflict - I do believe that whilst we have seen the sheer incompetence exhibited by the Russian military we’ve not seen losses from the Ukrainian military side (I’m not referring to the volunteers) and each Ukrainian loss matters.


I’m just perplexed that somehow everyone and their cat is now an expert on Ukraine.

You know Ive seen this during conflicts in Pakistan and Afghanistan , complete random people who’ve never been there, never taken an interest in the situation and now because it’s big news they suddenly start chiming in.

I’ve been to Russia twice, Poland once and Bulgaria three times - once with the United Nations on a CM-COORD course - does that make me an expert (hell no, and I never profess to be).

I’m just observing and chiming in every now and then when I think I have something to contribute.

But these people who give their so called “expert analysis” and then decided to make YouTube videos on which they place monetized adverts are the worst- worst kinds of people.

And whilst people sit in their comfy houses with nice amenities and chew the fat about 20 deaths here and 10 deaths there like these are okay? The scale of the human tragedy unfolding and the long term physiological, psychological and social impact of this bastard affair will reverberate and be carried by the victims of this sordid business for years to come.

 
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Question is why aren't the Russians sending their "good" vehicles to Ukraine? Where are the T-90SMs and the BTRTs and all those dozens of MRAPs they developed and showed in exhibitions? Where is the Armata? The tank modifications with APS and all the "smart weapons"?

Is this how they will fight the West? By sending thousands of BMP-2s,MT-LBs and T-72s while staying out of gas?
T-90MS = export variant.
T-90M.
The Russians just don't have many T-90M...
Most T-90 obrig 1992 are in Syria, some T-90A are there too.

I personally think 2 things about the most modern equipment.
They just don't have much of the stuff (no money for them)
Use them as reserve, Soviets/Russians NEVER cared about the ordinary men.
The whole operation reminds me of Soviet Afghan war, where 100.000-110.000 were first a "C-class army".
Many ad hoc formations, only quality troops in Soviet-Afghan-War were 20k troops, rest were stationary-city-holding conscripts.
 
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Oh no - you misunderstand me. I’ve been openly critical about the one sided reporting in some instances at the start of the conflict - I do believe that whilst we have seen the sheer incompetence exhibited by the Russian military we’ve not seen losses from the Ukrainian military side (I’m not referring to the volunteers) and each Ukrainian loss matters.


I’m just perplexed that somehow everyone and their cat is now an expert on Ukraine.

You know Ive seen this during conflicts in Pakistan and Afghanistan , complete random people who’ve never been there, never taken an interest in the situation and now because it’s big news they suddenly start chiming in.

I’ve been to Russia twice, Poland once and Bulgaria three times - once with the United Nations on a CM-COORD course - does that make me an expert (hell no, and I never profess to be).

I’m just observing and chiming in every now and then when I think I have something to contribute.

But these people who give their so. Allied “expert analysis” and then decided to make YouTube videos on which they place monetized adverts are the worst- worst kinds of people.

And whilst people sit in their comfy houses with nice amenities and chew the fat about 20 deaths here and 10 deaths there like these are okay? The scale of the human tragedy unfolding and the long term physiological, psychological and social impact of this bastard affair will reverberate and be carried by the victims of this sordid business for years to come.

Majority of those experts are using Western Tactics so they have no clue how the Russian military tactics work. US was right to bring out all theirs civilians out before the Russian Invasion and Biden kept on saying that Russia will win so they do have someone in the Pentagon that knows Russian Tactics.
 
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lol, you do know there are no territorial change except Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk are changed, any they were already occupied by Russian and separatist since 2014

So, do tell me what kind of surrender offer is "You get the keep the government, and military, and the country and we get to have what we already had before"??

LOL, and in case you don't know, Russia already LOST the strategic outcome, now NATO are going to have more border (Finland is joining NATO), more equipment and more defence budget than Russia, and Russia on the other hand, is going to eat the sanction for which China seems reluctant to bail out. For what? Eastern Ukraine?
Donetsk and Luhansk was only half in Russian hands. The offer is for the entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

If it is truly so great for Ukraine then they should take the deal. But they're not taking it. OK then. That means they believe they can get more and in fact can take back Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk.

Do you want to make a mod witnessed bet on who controls Crimea, current Donetsk DPR and Luhansk LPR within 3 months or the end of the war, whichever comes earlier?
 
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The identity documents 5 Ukrainian soldiers including one Lieutenant of the 53 mechanised brigade have been posted on a Russian telegram. These five were reportedly killed in the city of Volnovakha-Donetsk.
 
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Donetsk and Luhansk was only half in Russian hands. The offer is for the entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts

If it is truly so great for Ukraine then they should take the deal. But they're not taking it. OK then. That means they believe they can get more and in fact can take back Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk.

Do you want to make a mod witnessed bet on who controls Crimea, current Donetsk DPR and Luhansk LPR within 3 months or the end of the war, whichever comes earlier?

First of all, do you have idea any of the size of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts? They are smaller than what the Russia took now according to the current maps. Their advance is already cover half of Kharkiv Oblast, half of Sumy Oblast, All of Kherson Oblast, almost the entire Chernihiv Oblast and almost half of Kyiv. Not to mention the separatist already occupied more than half of Donbas before this started.

And if Zelenskyy agree on the condition, Russian troop will have to withdraw from all these Oblast, in exchange for the recognize the three region. And in case you are wondering Here are the land Russia occupied vs Donbas region.

55055857-10585749-image-a-55_1646670401594.jpg

And why Zelenskyy even want to Negotiate? He did not "Surrender" on day 1, he did not "Surrender" on day 2, he did not "Surrender" on day 3-11, what make you think he will agree to this?

And what bet? I have already said MANY TIME Russia WILL WIN THIS CAMPAIGN, I mean if anyone look at the conventional power between Russia and Ukraine and you pick Ukraine then you will have some sort of problem. I said Russia will lose the war because there are no way Putin can achieve his strategic goal, which is limit NATO, as I said times and time before, even if the Russia occupied the entire Ukraine (Which is not remotely possible in this schedule) They would still have lose the Strategic Objective. Because NATO would expand either way, and all he did is to roll back to pre-2014 level. Just with 2022 sanction and the lost of military power during the war, in effect, even if Russia occupied entire Ukraine, all he get is a giant Reset. NATO border is not going anywhere, NATO member is more united as before, and NATO are going to up the game with Russia, while Russia is eating sanction..

And that is before Russia is going to drag on for years of insurgency in Ukraine
 
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Russian side of the story.

Major military and political developments and major risks next (Excerpts)

Conclusions:

From the point of view of Russian combat operations, today has been most successful and tomorrow promises an even quicker domino effect on the Ukrainian defenses pretty much everywhere except the far west (what I now call the mini-Banderastan).

Politically, the only important news is that Lavrov and Kuleba are supposed to meet soon.

And yet, I will end with an area of great concern to me.

Here is how I see it and PLEASE tell me I am wrong!

  • The Ukraine has lost the war, she will be disarmed and denazified
  • The West is waging total informational and economic war against Russia and believing much of its own propaganda (which is fantastically dangerous!)
  • The western public has been sold nonsense about the Ukies being at the gates of Moscow and Russia being ready to surrender. Which means that when the reality will become undeniable there will be A LOT of VERY butthurt folks out there pointing fingers.
  • Economically speaking, Zerohedge put it best: “Carnage everywhere“!
  • Even much worse will be the folks who will try to still overturn this outcome. I am talking about the true nutcases in NATO (and in some sections of the USA ruling elites) which simply cannot even *imagine* that Russia holds all the cards, including the military one.
  • I can easily imagine, say, a Polish column with weapons and mercenaries crossing into the Ukraine and being wiped out by Russian missiles. I ask you this: what will NATO do next?
In fact, let me rephrase my question this way: is it at all possible that this war can end without a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia, keeping in mind that NATO cannot win and NATO cannot accept defeat?

Sadly, I don’t think so anymore, that kind of folly is a direct consequence of the Western PSYOPs which have convinced the folks in the West of two crucial things: 1) Russia cannot win and 2) Putin is bluffing.

I think that the folks in the Pentagon are smart enough to know that this is all bull, but the Eurorodents inside NATO and the EU?

Wouldn’t a military/political defeat of NATO in Banderastan not risk bringing down NATO as an organization?

Again, please tell me that I am wrong, but I don’t see how this war can stop before Russia shows NATO that nobody in Russia is bluffing and that any NATO country dumb enough to test that will be the target of missile strikes.

So, militarily, this war is pretty much over.

The future of a min-Banderastan is impossible for me to guess.

But I am seriously concerned that this war might expand and directly involve NATO/EU countries.

And it might involve nuclear strikes by either/both sides.

So, please tell me I am wrong and that the West does still have enough brains to step back from this abyss?

Does it?

Andrei

UPDATE: for the first time Russian TV has shown the Donbass operational cauldron. I added the contours of this cauldron in the making with the think black line:

(That blue area is where the Nazi types are surrounded)

Donbass-operational-cauldron-on-Russian-TV-1536x1072.jpg



If this is the ground reality in Ukraine then Russia has won the war. The western maps show Russians are only controlling the roads. A big contradiction. The Russian map makes Eastern Ukraine a reality, the allied rebels will form the government and have own army. It would be the buffer state between Russia and West Ukraine

Donbass-operational-cauldron-on-Russian-TV-1536x1072.jpg
 
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First of all, do you have idea any of the size of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts? They are smaller than what the Russia took now according to the current maps. Their advance is already cover half of Kharkiv Oblast, half of Sumy Oblast, All of Kherson Oblast, almost the entire Chernihiv Oblast and almost half of Kyiv

And if Zelenskyy agree on the condition, Russian troop will have to withdraw from all these Oblast, in exchange for the recognize the three region. And in case you are wondering Here are the land Russia occupied vs Donbas region.

View attachment 821864
And why Zelenskyy even want to Negotiate? He did not "Surrender" on day 1, he did not "Surrender" on day 2, he did not "Surrender" on day 3-11, what make you think he will agree to this?

And what bet? I have already said MANY TIME Russia WILL WIN THIS CAMPAIGN, I mean if anyone look at the conventional power between Russia and Ukraine and you pick Ukraine then you will have some sort of problem. I said Russia will lose the war because there are no way Putin can achieve his strategic goal, which is limit NATO, as I said times and time before, even if the Russia occupied the entire Ukraine (Which is not remotely possible in this schedule) They would still have lose the Strategic Objective. Because NATO would expand either way, and all he did is to roll back to pre-2014 level. Just with 2022 sanction and the lost of military power during the war, in effect, even if Russia occupied entire Ukraine, all he get is a giant Reset. NATO border is not going anywhere, NATO member is more united as before, and NATO are going to up the game with Russia, while Russia is eating sanction..
The bet isn't on who wins. The bet is on who controls Crimea, Donetsk (current DPR territory) and Luhansk (current LPR territory) in 3 months or end of the war.

It's very simple. Do you think Ukraine can retake these territories? If so, then we can make a bet. If not, then you agree with me.

If you agree with me, that is to say, Ukraine cannot retake these territories militarily, the logical choice is that Zelensky agrees to this deal and Russia withdraws from the rest of the territories.

Otherwise it means Zelensky believes that he can defeat Russia and get them to either surrender or extract a better deal.
 
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The bet isn't on who wins. The bet is on who controls Crimea, Donetsk (current DPR territory) and Luhansk (current LPR territory) in 3 months or end of the war.

It's very simple. Do you think Ukraine can retake these territories? If so, then we can make a bet. If not, then you agree with me.

If you agree with me, that is to say, Ukraine cannot retake these territories militarily, the logical choice is that Zelensky agrees to this deal and Russia withdraws from the rest of the territories.

Otherwise it means Zelensky believes that he can defeat Russia and get them to either surrender or extract a better deal.
Well, taking those city DOES NOT mean the end of this war. Especially if you are talking about an Active "Insurgency", which is undoubtedly going to start. Sure Russia can take Crimea, Donbas or even the Entire Ukraine by force in this campaign, I am not disagreeing with you. But can they hold them and can they last an insurgency war with Ukrainian is another matter.

US took the entire Afghanistan from Taliban in 2001 in 4 months, tell me who is in control of Afghanistan now in 2022? If you want to bet, then you will need to make this bet 10 or 20 years long, and I have no interest in this.
 
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