Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Paul2]

Any Central Asian troops called in as reinforcement??

I guess no, Kazakhstan also launched some suspicious "drills" few weeks ago, but so far no movement, probably seeing how bad Russians are faring.

 

[Goritoes]

Propaganda is hard on this one...

 

[Clutch]

Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission
Dave Lawler

Dave Lawler

Civilians attempt to evacuate from the Kyiv suburb of Irpin. Photo: Aaris Messinis/AFP via Getty

Vladimir Putin likely won't be able to take Kyiv without destroying much of the city and subjecting its population to a brutal siege, military analysts say. But Putin has a track record of doing just that.

Why it matters: U.S. and Ukrainian officials believe that Putin's primary focus remains on Kyiv, even after his plans to swiftly take the city and force a capitulation from the government were thwarted. The city's defenders — soldiers and civilians alike — are very hostile to the invaders and bracing for a fight.

On the ground: Residents of Kyiv are stocking up on food, medicine, and other essentials in preparation for a siege, says Parliament member Maryan Zablotskyy from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s party, and who remains in the city.

In addition to the army and police force, around 30,000 Kyiv residents volunteered to defend the city and have received guns, he says.
“So basically, Kyiv is turning into a fortress, and everybody is expecting a major assault on Kyiv,” he tells Axios.

Data: Institute for the Study of War; Map: Jared Whalen/Axios

12 days into the war, there has been fighting on the city's outskirts and bombing closer to the center, but a senior Pentagon official told reporters today that “the main advance is still stalled outside the city.”

Flashback: Michael Kofman, a leading expert on Russia’s military at the Center for Naval Analyses, says that watching an enormous Russian convoy move slowly toward Kyiv to help encircle the city is giving him “very bad Grozny 1999 vibes" — a reference to the notoriously brutal Russian bombardment and capture of the Chechen capital.

By the time Putin, newly installed as president, declared the city “liberated,” it was by the UN’s estimation “the most destroyed city on Earth.”
Kofman says Putin's bombardments of Grozny and Aleppo in Syria suggest he would be willing to "level" Kyiv. "If you don’t think that’s true you haven’t been following Vladimir Putin’s track record.”
Kofman is expecting a massive artillery and air assault on the city once the Russian forces are in position.

Yes, but: “Even if they try and reduce the city to rubble, you can still fight from rubble if you really want to,” says Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute and who is another close observer of the Russian war effort.

He says encircling Kyiv will require a massive Russian force that could then be vulnerable to counterattacks. Troops that enter the city would be at a disadvantage in street-by-street fighting.
"If you’re trying to occupy a country that doesn’t want to be occupied, your prospects are always going to be poor,” Lee says.
He also thinks the Russians will be operating on a timeline, both because of the difficulties of sustaining and supplying their operation and because of domestic pressure over the war and its economic fallout.

The aftermath, in Grozny. Photo: Antoine Gyori/Sygma via Getty Images

What to watch: The Pentagon official said Russian forces are trying to “seal off the eastern part of the country” to prevent the large Ukrainian force there from joining the defense of Kyiv.

Some Russian forces fighting in the east could also join the effort to encircle Kyiv once they have taken Kharkiv, the official added.
The U.S. and European countries are working to provide weapons and other supplies while it’s still possible to get them into the capital.
Even killing or capturing Zelensky would be unlikely to end the battle. Secretary of State Tony Blinken said Sunday that Ukraine has a "continuity of government" plan.

Driving the news: At least four civilians attempting to evacuate the Kyiv suburb of Irpin were killed by Russian shelling on Sunday. On Monday, at least 13 civilians were reportedly killed when a bakery in another suburb was struck.

The Pentagon official said Russia has now deployed "nearly 100%" of its amassed forces into Ukraine and launched over 625 missiles.

The bottom line: Like Ukraine as a whole, Kyiv would be difficult to take and more difficult to hold. But if there is a prolonged battle for Kyiv, the Ukrainian people will bear the brunt of the suffering.

 

[Madni Bappa]

I guess no, Kazakhstan also launched some suspicious "drills" few weeks ago, but so far no movement, probably seeing how bad Russians are faring.

On Twitter there were videos showing Kazak motorized units moving towards Ukraine.


Could be fake news using footage from recent instability in Kazakhstan

 

[Iron Shrappenel]

The next venture, if there even is a next venture, won't happen for literally decades. Russia will be spending the next 20 to 30 years rebuilding what they lost, both military and economy.

There are many other competitors that the west will face... The world is going to turn multipolar whether it likes it or not.

 

[LeGenD]

Do you know what the term "forced conscription" means?

Do you have proof? Maybe many want to fight for their country?

Asst. Sec of the State Victoria Nuland on a recorded conversation with the then US amb. to Ukraine essentially identifying members of the coup.

Consortium News Bias and Reliability | Ad Fontes Media

Ad Fontes Media rates Consortium News, an online investigative news magazine, as hyper-partisan left in terms of bias and mixed reliability...

adfontesmedia.com

 

[alimobin memon]

Armenia had tor and BUK m1's too, right ? that TB2 Bayraktar footage of Ukrainian's destroying convoy could actually be of Armenian's. Russia knows how vulnerable ground systems and tanks are to tb2 why would Russia risk it ?

The way convoys are destroyed and systems like Pantsir S1 abandoned seems like footage of abandoned systems. Could be videos of exercises in terrain closer to Ukraine.

 

[Ashesh]

I don’t know who lies more: Ukraine or NATO

 

[RescueRanger]

This time the sanctions have gone too far:

Adidas Halts Sales in Russia and Appoints New China Manager

Adidas AG halted sales in Russia, following other athletic-wear makers like Puma SE and Nike Inc. in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

www.bloomberg.com

I can already imagine an army of angry Gopniks running down the Addidas HQ armed with 2 litre bottles of cheap light beer:

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

 

[Ashesh]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501115194826764288

 

[8888888888888]

View attachment 821848

Someone is not happy

Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission
Dave Lawler

Dave Lawler
View attachment 821851
Civilians attempt to evacuate from the Kyiv suburb of Irpin. Photo: Aaris Messinis/AFP via Getty

Vladimir Putin likely won't be able to take Kyiv without destroying much of the city and subjecting its population to a brutal siege, military analysts say. But Putin has a track record of doing just that.

Why it matters: U.S. and Ukrainian officials believe that Putin's primary focus remains on Kyiv, even after his plans to swiftly take the city and force a capitulation from the government were thwarted. The city's defenders — soldiers and civilians alike — are very hostile to the invaders and bracing for a fight.

On the ground: Residents of Kyiv are stocking up on food, medicine, and other essentials in preparation for a siege, says Parliament member Maryan Zablotskyy from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s party, and who remains in the city.

In addition to the army and police force, around 30,000 Kyiv residents volunteered to defend the city and have received guns, he says.
“So basically, Kyiv is turning into a fortress, and everybody is expecting a major assault on Kyiv,” he tells Axios.

Data: Institute for the Study of War; Map: Jared Whalen/Axios

12 days into the war, there has been fighting on the city's outskirts and bombing closer to the center, but a senior Pentagon official told reporters today that “the main advance is still stalled outside the city.”

Flashback: Michael Kofman, a leading expert on Russia’s military at the Center for Naval Analyses, says that watching an enormous Russian convoy move slowly toward Kyiv to help encircle the city is giving him “very bad Grozny 1999 vibes" — a reference to the notoriously brutal Russian bombardment and capture of the Chechen capital.

By the time Putin, newly installed as president, declared the city “liberated,” it was by the UN’s estimation “the most destroyed city on Earth.”
Kofman says Putin's bombardments of Grozny and Aleppo in Syria suggest he would be willing to "level" Kyiv. "If you don’t think that’s true you haven’t been following Vladimir Putin’s track record.”
Kofman is expecting a massive artillery and air assault on the city once the Russian forces are in position.

Yes, but: “Even if they try and reduce the city to rubble, you can still fight from rubble if you really want to,” says Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute and who is another close observer of the Russian war effort.

He says encircling Kyiv will require a massive Russian force that could then be vulnerable to counterattacks. Troops that enter the city would be at a disadvantage in street-by-street fighting.
"If you’re trying to occupy a country that doesn’t want to be occupied, your prospects are always going to be poor,” Lee says.
He also thinks the Russians will be operating on a timeline, both because of the difficulties of sustaining and supplying their operation and because of domestic pressure over the war and its economic fallout.

The aftermath, in Grozny. Photo: Antoine Gyori/Sygma via Getty Images

What to watch: The Pentagon official said Russian forces are trying to “seal off the eastern part of the country” to prevent the large Ukrainian force there from joining the defense of Kyiv.

Some Russian forces fighting in the east could also join the effort to encircle Kyiv once they have taken Kharkiv, the official added.
The U.S. and European countries are working to provide weapons and other supplies while it’s still possible to get them into the capital.
Even killing or capturing Zelensky would be unlikely to end the battle. Secretary of State Tony Blinken said Sunday that Ukraine has a "continuity of government" plan.

Driving the news: At least four civilians attempting to evacuate the Kyiv suburb of Irpin were killed by Russian shelling on Sunday. On Monday, at least 13 civilians were reportedly killed when a bakery in another suburb was struck.

The Pentagon official said Russia has now deployed "nearly 100%" of its amassed forces into Ukraine and launched over 625 missiles.

The bottom line: Like Ukraine as a whole, Kyiv would be difficult to take and more difficult to hold. But if there is a prolonged battle for Kyiv, the Ukrainian people will bear the brunt of the suffering.

Russian tactics see this as the case, but that wouldn't happen until they encircle the city which they are doing now.

 

[jhungary]

@That Guy @jhungary just how much forces do Russians have in the South now?

There were around 14 BTGs stationed in Crimea before action started. Were they reinforced at the last moment?

Judging from the attack momentum, I would say it's anywhere between 6-10 Battalions, which is about 9000-12000 combat troop.

I believe Russian Battalion is reinforced, usually there are 950/battalion, but pre-war intel suggest each Battalion is between 1100-1200 troop. Which is not at all surprised as they are going to war.

Ukraine should recognize Crimea as part of Russia, recognize the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, amend the constitution and abandon claims to join "any bloc" - Kremlin spokesman Peskov

I think these are insufficient. Russia should have requested the abolition of the elections in Ukraine and the authority to appoint a governor also.

(Russia is looking for a honorable way out from full invasion attempt. But it still puts forward unacceptable conditions.)

That is why I think Putin know he is losing the long game..

Those condition is not at all align to the pre-war condition (Ie demilitarize and denazify Ukraine)...If they ask for peace now, one of the condition should be disbanding Zelenskyy government. Which Putin didn't ask.

Also, if things are going your way, you usually will not extend a peace deal...

Tanks get blown up. APS, no APS makes no difference if you are being fired on by a squad of RPG men.

It will be a significant propaganda coup if Russians will let it get destroyed, and photographed.

Or Tank got towed, the Ukrainian fashion..

 

[sur]

Excerpts from horse's mouth

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Judging from the attack momentum, I would say it's anywhere between 6-10 Battalions, which is about 9000-12000 combat troop.

I believe Russian Battalion is reinforced, usually there are 950/battalion, but pre-war intel suggest each Battalion is between 1100-1200 troop. Which is not at all surprised as they are going to war.


That is why I think Putin know he is losing the long game..

Those condition is not at all align to the pre-war condition (Ie demilitarize and denazify Ukraine)...If they ask for peace now, one of the condition should be disbanding Zelenskyy government. Which Putin didn't ask.

Also, if things are going your way, you usually will not extend a peace deal...

It's not a peace deal in the traditional sense. It's a conditional surrender offer.

Bookmark it. See if the terms get better or worse for Ukraine as time goes on. You can gauge who is winning or losing by who is relaxing conditions and who is making more requests.