Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[TheNoob]

Yes, they are all stupid. The guys who run the system do not know anything. Random people on the internet know it all

You said it, exactly like how it is right now.

PS: I keep getting confused about the topic in this thread.

...yes, specifically in the energy sector. Continued Russian actions in Ukraine will eventually force EU and US to look for alternate sources of energy. That will put Russia in real trouble.

And that is simply not happening in a month or two,
The war will be far over by then.

 

[jhungary]

I'm not gonna start pretending that they're suddenly out of money and resources.
It's not the end of the world yet.

Well, they aren't but they are going to if Sanction keep on coming. Rouble is now below 0.085 to 1 USD. Which mean whatever currency they have, as long as it's not their, they lost a lot of value on those.

Don't forget, this is when Russia Central Bank try their very hardest to prevent Rouble from falling further. Yet, in 10 days, it drop 31% of value...

 

[TheNoob]

Well, they aren't but they are going to if Sanction keep on coming. Rouble is now below 0.085 to 1 USD. Which mean whatever currency they have, as long as it's not their, they lost a lot of value on those.

Don't forget, this is when Russia Central Bank try their very hardest to prevent Rouble from falling further. Yet, in 10 days, it drop 31% of value...

Being a Pakistani, a 30% drop is nothing.

 

[jhungary]

If China can secure air superiority they could starve the Island including blocking all ships coming in without Navy superiorty but just air superiorty but I understand you will need bigger fleets that can carry more logistics and soldiers and ideally it would be better to land on 10 axes points at the same time each around 40.000 X 10 meaning even from the east and north including south and west

Air Superiority alone cannot stave the population. You cannot have Air Power out 24/7 and you cannot loiter when you are out of ammo, which mean supply is going to come in when your fighter RTB either because they are out of fuel or out of ammo or both.

You may be able to put the fighter outside their range with Aerial Refuelling but first of all, that's risking your asset (Taiwan can shoot those tanker down) second of all, it didn't do much if they ran out of ammo, unlike Ace Combat, each fighter can carry at most 8 missile, it run out pretty quick...

Being a Pakistani, a 30% drop is nothing.

LOL

 

[IceCold]

What if India claims Pakistan

There are no Ifs, You already do that, way before the Russian Ukraine war. It's another thing you cant do much more than just claim since you arent Russia and Pakistan isn't Ukraine.

 

[LeGenD]

Taiwan being an Island have an distinct advantage, you cannot invade an island unless you have ways to control the ENTIRE ocean around it. And at this point, Chinese Navy tho strong, in a sense, is still not enough to do that. You cannot attack an island unless you have both Air and Naval Superiority. That's just not how you do it.

The problem is, if Chinese Navy reach that point (to secure the entire ocean around Taiwan) then it will tilted toward China and Taiwan would be in bad business. Much like how US Island Hopping Campaign back in 1940s.

Human factor does surely count, but I am afraid if China achieved Naval Superiority, Human factor is going to make heroic story, the ending would still be tragic.....

Spoiler: Click to check

Well, you have greater insight than me given your background so I respect your POV.

I am of the view that modern warfare is increasingly hybrid in character and difficult to fight by extension. Even a moderate country can fight very well if it is motivated enough. Taiwan is much better equipped to fight a war than Ukraine.

PLAN, in its current form, can insert thousands of troops inside Taiwan in theory but a much larger force might be needed to occupy and control the island. PLAN will have to deal with Taiwanese cruise missile, mines, and defensive formations in the process. PLAN can try to soften Taiwanese conventional defenses with jet fighters, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles but as I pointed out before - numerous Taiwanese defensive positions are in mountainous locations and have the capacity to absorb lot of firepower - these formations cannot be cleared in some days (very likely to last much longer). Chinese armed forces can certainly batter and slice their way through Taiwanese conventional forces but they might have to deal with unexpected combination of guerilla warfare and urban warfare when deep inside Taiwan. Taiwan is home to millions of people - their motivation and courage will make difference in the end. These people cannot just pack their bags and leave - all the more reason to fight. Human factor.

WE can discuss this theme some other time though.

 

[jhungary]

they didnt take all russian banks out of SWIFT so that means sanctioned banks can go to the not yet sanctioned banks to transfer money like nothing happened these sanctions are a media show tbh

The bank that were not out of SWIFT does not have their own system, they are not what we called "Gateway" Bank (There are only a few out going bank in Russia, all but 1 were out of SWIFT,, and that's Gazprombank), which mean they will either need to connect to SWIFT themselves or they need to find another route that by pass SWIFT. Equally hard for both scenario. And then you also need to run the risk of them being Sanction if they stick their neck out.

 

[Titanium100]

Air Superiority alone cannot stave the population. You cannot have Air Power out 24/7 and you cannot loiter when you are out of ammo, which mean supply is going to come in when your fighter RTB either because they are out of fuel or out of ammo or both.

You may be able to put the fighter outside their range with Aerial Refuelling but first of all, that's risking your asset (Taiwan can shoot those tanker down) second of all, it didn't do much if they ran out of ammo, unlike Ace Combat, each fighter can carry at most 8 missile, it run out pretty quick...


LOL

You got radar on all ships approaching Taiwan and all you gotta do is warn them first over the radio to back away if not send in the fighters and keep the ocean clean around the Island

 

[LeGenD]

With all due respect

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496640134606819328

As far as civilians are concerned..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499012182423576586

Do you want me to post images of schools being used as military posts?

There are also images and videos of atrocities on ethnic Russian population crucificied burned and what not by azov.

I am talking about what is happening in the present - not about what happened in 2014 or what Azov is up to.

Ukraine is a big country and some locations are untouched by war.

My point is this - much of the war is being fought in locations such as Donbas, Kharkiv and around Kyiv. There is ample death and destruction in these locations. The impression that Russian army is taking this war lightly is BS. This is all.

 

[jhungary]

Well, you have greater insight than me given your background so I respect your POV.

I am of the view that modern warfare is increasingly hybrid in character and difficult to fight by extension. Even a moderate country can fight very well if it is motivated enough. Taiwan is much better equipped to fight a war than Ukraine.

PLAN, in its current form, can insert thousands of troops inside Taiwan in theory but a much larger force might be needed to occupy and control the island. PLAN will have to deal with Taiwanese cruise missile, mines, and defensive formations in the process. PLAN can try to soften Taiwanese conventional defenses with jet fighters, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles but as I pointed out before - numerous Taiwanese defensive positions are in mountainous locations and have the capacity to absorb lot of firepower - these formations cannot be cleared in some days (very likely to last much longer). Chinese armed forces can certainly batter and slice their way through Taiwanese conventional forces but they might have to deal with unexpected combination of guerilla warfare and urban warfare when deep inside Taiwan. Taiwan is home to millions of people - their motivation and courage will make difference in the end. These people cannot just pack their bags and leave - all the more reason to fight. Human factor.

WE can discuss this theme some other time though.

Spoiler: Click to check

Probably not going to be any other time, as I am pondering whether or not I will keep on posting here, I still have not made any decision yet, so I don't know. Maybe, maybe not.

The problem I see will work badly for China is Taiwanese Sub, they are not top of the line stuff, but China is not traditionally a great Anti-Sub country, (EU and US have more developed tech for sub hunt) If China fight a war with Taiwan, how many man China can brought to bear is depending on how China can hunt down Taiwanese sub. There are 4, but effectively only 2, and the west may sell them some of the new or second hand stuff if China keep getting the violent rhetoric.

Like most Amphibious Assault. The weakest point of any assault is when your troop is sitting on the ship prepare to launch. That is when you can deal the maximum casualty with minimum effort. In Falkland, one mistake saw the ENTIRE Helicopter Stock of British Army planned to use in Falkland go down when they are all in that one cargoship (I forgot the name and it's 5am here I don't want to go look for it) Which mean unless this problem is dealt and the entire area is closed, no sub, no low flying strike aircraft, there are always going to be risk.

But after that, the ability of keeping the war effort going would determine the winner, Taiwan may be able to fight valiantly, but if the Chinese can brought in wave after wave after wave, Taiwan will fall due to the sheer number.

You got radar on all ships approaching Taiwan and all you gotta do is warn them first over the radio to back away if not send in the fighters and keep the ocean clean around the Island

Spoiler: Click to check

Well, there are 4 or 5 outlying island in Taiwan that can do the opposite as I said it's almost impossible to put up 24/7 CAS (I never had to but I also never see USAF can do that, and USAF is a larger organisation than PLAAF.) I mean you can try I don't know, maybe @gambit would know more, I am not Air Force....

 

[lightning F57]

I dont understand something, maybe someone with a military background can explain.

There seems to be many cases of Russian armour being destroyed, it seems like small units. Why are the Russian forces so fragmented I thought a big army would move together with aircover. Why are there so many small units isolated, no fuel, food, desertion. Are they air dropping armour deep into Ukraine with no cover. Seems like so amateur planning going on.

 

[HaMoTZeMaS]

Just came by Pakistan's official response in context of Rus-Ukr War

Kuch kaha b nahi aur sab Keh b gaey

"and some States" "newly discovered"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499039324716908549

 

[beijingwalker]

Taiwan may be able to fight valiantly, but if the Chinese can brought in wave after wave after wave, Taiwan will fall due to the sheer number.

This is how valiantly Taiwan youth may fight

Taiwan TV street interview: How Taiwanese youth think about "2 years Mandatory Military Service law"

Replies are: It's useless, people will refuse to go to war anyway.
It's waste of time, it's just like a summer camp.
We'll just die if going to a war, there's zero chance we can win a war over mainland China.
Military training won't save our lives, and Taiwan's people are not united.

Question: If Taiwan goes to war with mainland China, would you like to join and fight?
Reply: Certainly not, I'll find a place to hide
We can fight but it's meaningless, we can never win.
No one likes to go to war...
Young people don't want to go to war and don't want to waste such a long time on military service
I won't, I don't want to die. Life is meant for more meaningful things.

In the end of the interview, the host shows the answers for the 5 quesions on board, the most chosen one is: "Come on, stop fooling around, what's the point for this conscription law when no one wants to fight and no one wants to go to war?"

 

[GumNaam]

Redmond. Sure Inshallah.

cool man, email me: tameeraypakistan@gmail.com, I'll give you my real contact info there...and fyi, we may already know eachother from the MAPS Mosque or ICOR or the bellevue Mosque...

 

[Paul2]

I agree that the firepower Russia has wouldve leveled city by now. If they want, they can send Tu 160/ Tu 95 like B52s are used by the Western Nato forces.

They are already dumping dumb bombs from Tu-22, which is a heavy bomber by all definitions.

They will never risk strategic bombers there, but Tu-22 is ok