Day 5.
All focused on Kiev, the capital and largest city. But the most important thing is happening in the Donbass. Mariupol, to the south, is practically surrounded, the same happens in Kramatorsk/Sloviansk and also Severodonetsk/Lysichansk.
Notice there are two pockets forming in the south forget the Mariupol one but if the upper pocket forms then ''Novorossiya'' Is a reality not a theory anymore
Was gonna write this on my Day 7 update of the Battle Assessment I did a while ago. But anyway, I am going to say it here.
It was undoubtedly the Russian main objective is for the Eastern Force to be a blocking force, which pin the Eastern Ukrainian defence in place.
The Northern Arm come down from Belarus would meet the South Arm come up form Crimea and link up and split the country into 2 over the Dnieper River, while the Force at Brest is there to prevent a breakout or Reinforcement from Lviv.
This battleplan, however, heavily depends on two things.
1.) You have to capture Kyiv in order to make this happen.
2.) You also need to capture Dnipro
Now, the Southern Arm is blocked in Kherson region, and Northern Arm laying siege of Kyiv. Problem for this battle plan as far as I can see is that First, supply is going to come in from the West from Europe and which mean Lviv and the Western Area is going to become a problem for Russia, the only way Russia can deal with that is to cut off that area using the troop in Brest. Which if that force is engaged no one will be able to screen the Russian Left flank.
Another thing is the longer Kyiv can drag on, the harder would be fore this pincer to move. It is estimated that Russia would take another 2 or 3 days to go up from Kherson (Mykolaiv) and double envelope Dnipro from Left and Right.
And then Dnipro itself is a large city.
Not sure how much Time Russia have because supply is going to run low and it will get harder and harder to resupply the longer they expanded their lead. Which mean by Day 14, if they cannot take Dnipro AND Kyiv, I would consider this plan failure.
I think it's clear now, Russia is using talks to reposition its forces.
I think it has been clear from the moment they asked for talks...
I think it's clear now, Russia is using talks to reposition its forces.
I think it has been clear from the moment they asked for talks...