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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

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That Guy said:
On a side note, Russia has also been unable to prevent NATO from sharing real time intelligence with the Ukrainian military about Russian advances, and Russia seems to no even be trying to prevent it. As soon as something happens, the Ukrainians seem to know about it, which also explains how so many Russian sabotage teams keep getting caught entering cities, and why Ukrainian defenses seem to be so effective at repelling Russian offensives.
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The problem is that Russia cannot prevent this at all - it would not dare to challenge NATO aerial assets and you can be sure the cables delivering that data is quite secure. The Russian gambit was to try and knock out the AD network on day#1 and to some extent they succeeded - some of the SAMs and almost all of the Radars were all taken down. But the AD network is still effective to some extent as NATO is providing the air picture.

The Su-34s are flying low and fast as any higher and they will get shot down and any slower - the Manpads will take them out. This restricts the ability of the RuAF to get massively involved.
 
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dBSPL said:
Another Pantsir-S1

The vehicle is undamaged, abandoned because it got stuck in mud. If they're selling, let's raise money together and buy it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498252630300188676
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The weather has not worked in Putins favour either - seems like he should have started 2-3 weeks earlier than he did. Alot of russian armour got bogged down and is now forced to use the motorways as the ground is too soft.
 
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Titanium100 said:
Day 5.

All focused on Kiev, the capital and largest city. But the most important thing is happening in the Donbass. Mariupol, to the south, is practically surrounded, the same happens in Kramatorsk/Sloviansk and also Severodonetsk/Lysichansk.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1498267174363967495


Notice there are two pockets forming in the south forget the Mariupol one but if the upper pocket forms then ''Novorossiya'' Is a reality not a theory anymore
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Seems quite rapid to me…
 
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That Guy said:
Russia's two major purely military capability problems seem to be...

1) old equipment requiring heavy maintenance.

2) lack of logistical support.

It's very clear that what Russia lacks is not attack systems, but the logistics required to operate them effectively over long distances. The fact that Russian convoys are running out of food and fuel is a major problem that needs to be addressed on an urgent basis, which is not gonna happen due to a now severe lack of cash.

their over reliance on trains for transport of troops and goods ended up being useless in Ukraine, as the Ukrainians quickly destroyed all lines connecting the two nations very early on in the war. This explains why they ended up having to use Ukrainian roads to transport their old legacy armour, effective turning entire convoys into death traps which Ukrainians ambushed using Javelins and NLAWs, or drone struck using TB-2s.

Also, the Ukrainians are using old Soviet systems to shoot down Russian aircrafts and old Soviet artillery to destroy incoming convoys shows just how vintage Russian armour actually is, and how weak Russian air force actually is (old Ukrainian migs were literally shooting down Russia's latest and heavily upgraded fighters).

On a side note, Russia has also been unable to prevent NATO from sharing real time intelligence with the Ukrainian military about Russian advances, and Russia seems to no even be trying to prevent it. As soon as something happens, the Ukrainians seem to know about it, which also explains how so many Russian sabotage teams keep getting caught entering cities, and why Ukrainian defenses seem to be so effective at repelling Russian offensives.
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Russia already had difficulties in modernizing its military systems for a long time with the post-Soviet collapse. Russia is traditionally the world's largest land army. So the inventory is huge in every sense... This was not a problem that could be solved in 3-5 years. In terms of the necessary machinery and looms, and for some products, the technology had difficulty in competing.

Before Russia could complete this phase, it inevitably set about consolidating its outer security concept with military measures. Particularly, intervention in Syria is a costly issue for Russia. Resources that should have been spent on military modernization began to flow into military operations.

Russia still has invaluable conventional military assets and, more importantly, doctrines for point operations. However, the consequences of a large-scale invasion were heavy for Russia. (A possible defeat in Ukraine may, first of all, destroy the perception of mighty Russia in the minds. This is what Russia cannot afford either.)

A wave of economic sanctions is now likely to begin on an unprecedented scale. But I think the main critical issue is the disappearance of the activities necessary for Russia's defense and aerospace industry, which I mentioned above. I opened a separate thread on this subject.

In short, the Ukraine war creates a reality in which Russia will be vitally dependent on China in every sense. This will lead to the political regression of Russia.

///

From Turkey's point of view, I think Russia should not be defeated. However, this should not be a decisive NATO victory either. If a certain victory situation occurs, the pressure on Turkey will increase, it doesn't matter from which direction.
 
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FuturePAF said:
The Russians seem to have severely underestimated the Ukrainians and their ability to be resupplied.

Or they are going slow, to avoid loss of civilian life, and to be cautious as much as possible with the equipment and men
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The Russians expected this to be quick and easy, and if they were the USSR, it would have been.

Russia overestimated itself, which allowed the Ukrainians to regroup and put up strong defenses. This gave time for the Ukrainians to launch a diplomatic offensive in Europe. With Europe convinced that Ukraine was not gonna get quickly overrun, they could now seriously consider, and commit to supporting Ukrainian financially, militarily, and humanitarianly as well.
 
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That Guy said:
The Russians expected this to be quick and easy, and if they were the USSR, it would have been.

Russia overestimated itself, which allowed the Ukrainians to regroup and put up strong defenses. This gave time for the Ukrainians to launch a diplomatic offensive in Europe. With Europe convinced that Ukraine was not gonna get quickly overrun, they could now seriously consider, and commit to supporting Ukrainian financially, militarily, and humanitarianly as well.
Click to expand...
Now all the Ukrainians need is a massive resupply of longer range air defense systems (like the Sa-6) and dozens of ex-soviet fighters (mig-29) from mothball in Germany, Poland and other Eastern European nations.

RescueRanger said:
Another video of Indian students trapped in Ukraine

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498191583186804739
Click to expand...
Kharkiv is a university city with 300,000 students.
 
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