Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Oldman1]

Russian generals are dying in Ukraine because they keep going near the front hoping to rescue the invasion, Western officials say​

Russian generals are dying in Ukraine because they keep going near the front hoping to rescue the invasion, Western officials say

Western officials said that "because things are going badly" in the invasion of Ukraine, top officers are taking risks that end in their deaths.

www.businessinsider.com

If they don't go to the front, they know who they will face if they go back.

 

[jhungary]

@jhungary can you comment on my previous posts today?

Which post? The one I just comment on about What Russia would do?

 

[Hack-Hook]

Where do the Chinese get the money, Chinese only have a fixed amount of Yuan in circulation, you cannot just print it out of thin air, to do that, you will need to spare some Yuan from other project or buy them from overseas and weaken the currency.

as I said use the dollar they previously used to buy Oil as a backing for printing new yuan

2.) What do you think Russia think they can used to build infrastructure to China? Again, Can I pay my building a loaf of bread to build a road? Or a pipeline? How about paying them in oil?

the whole point is paying them yuan

 

[MH.Yang]

First of all, if you do that, you still need to digest that "6 Trillions" Yuan you printed, and if it is like you said you are printing it every year, that mean you deflate your own currency by the same volume every year. Just because they are going to reinvest it back to China does not mean anything, the more currency floating in the free market the more it deflate your currency value. That's macroeconomic 101....6 times the currency inflation is a LOT in case you are wondering, and 1 trillions dollar added to circulation every year is also a lot. US as a whole, with massive Financial backing, only needed 2 trillions dollars in circulation, and you are talking about adding an entire US circulation in China every 2 years......

Secondly, you can't simply pick up all the Russian oil and gas. 1.) you had contract with other oil production country (Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran) So what is going to happen to all that contract? You get them as well or you just break them? Gas also is a problem, 2.) China don't use Natural Gas or LNG (not LPG) as much as the entire EU combine (China import around 50 billions cubic meters, EU as a whole imported around 420 billions cubic meters)

List of countries by natural gas imports - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So are you telling me China is just going to stomach it (Bear in mind you can't sell them) or you are saying China are to ditch all their renewable and switch to gas as a whole??

Finally, infrastructure is different. Russian oil is not the same as oil from Saudi or Qatar or even Iran, Russian oil is heavy oil, Saudi oil is Light Crude, you can technically refine Heavy into Light Crude, but are you saying you are going to build a few refinery just for this change? Because you can just use them Russian Crude like you do with Saudi and Iran Crude. Another issue is all the delivery network Russian currently have is toward EU, you will also need to expand the network to even accommodate slight increase. Are you going to pay for that as well??

There is no need to issue an additional 6 trillion CNY every year to support trade with Russia, but only once.

Russia will buy equivalent goods from China, and these CNY will return to China. In the second year, China only needs to re extract 6 trillion CNY from China to buy Russian resources. Of course, Russia may keep some CNY balance because of its trade surplus, but not too much, we can accept it. The Chinese govt will certainly negotiate with the Russian govt to agree on the CNY balance ceiling. China will not allow too many offshore CNY to enter the international market from Russia. We will exchange other physical US dollars&euros for excess CNY.

Secondly, using 6 trillion CNY to buy Russian resources will save us $1 trillion in foreign exchange every year, because we should have used these dollars to buy resources. So that means we printed 6 trillion CNY in exchange for $1 trillion. Of course, the US dollar cannot be used in China, so it cannot hedge the inflation caused by RMB 6 trillion.

Moreover, China already has too many foreign exchange reserves, and an additional $1 trillion a year will lead to a large loss of China's interest rates. Therefore, the Chinese govt will invest the excess US $1 trillion in foreign exchange into B&R projects. Congratulations, both Hungary and Pakistan are the investment priorities in the B&R Project, and you will benefit from it.

As you said, if China needs to print an additional 6 trillion CNY every year, it is really unacceptable to us. But if it is printed only once, it will have little impact on China's inflation. In 2021, China's trade surplus with the United States brought us $1.1 trillion in additional foreign exchange. In order to exchange these balances, the Chinese government issued an additional 7 trillion CNY. This has not had any impact on our inflation, because China has a serious overcapacity, and adding trillions of dollars of orders will not bring serious inflation. Moreover, we will use foreign exchange to buy bulk materials from the international market to export inflation to the world.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Then you will decrease the value Yuan is holding with USD (that's weakening Yuan position in case you don't know what you are talking about) then using that same money and forward it to Russia, that mean you are taking them away to circulation in China and hand it to Russia, now, what do you have in Russia that can back this deal? Oil? Sure, they can be used up, so what happened once the Chinese used up the oil the Russian paid? You need to pump more Yuan into Russia to get more oil, and by doing so, you need to sell your USD or Euro to get more RMB and weaken Yuan further against those currency. Would you think that is a good idea?? Unless China is planning on switching to USD, this is not a very good policy as this is going to be an endless cycle until either China cannot pay anymore or the West Lifted those sanction....

yuan only get weakened if there is no foreign currency or valuable metal to back it
in this case USA dollar is used for supporting the value , or more exactly the gold held in fort Knox . now if USA want to say I default on those dollar then its something else

Yuan into Russia to get more oil, and by doing so, you need to sell your USD or Euro to get more RMB and weaken Yuan further against those currency.

you previously also sold your dollar to get the oil. now the dollar remain in your central bank

 

[Oldman1]

By stopping losses. They without a doubt know how much they lose in botched offensives.

They still have tons of armour, SAMs, and artillery to hold where they are.

Even if you completely remove Russian irregular forces like its national guard, and paramilitaries, Russian regular forces will still be big enough.

They are not going to stop the losses since the Ukrainians will want them out of the country. They can hit them like they are doing now with artillery and rockets. And now you have loitering munitions. Its like Azerbaijan taking on Armenia and wiping their military forces with impunity. Bomb Russian artillery, tanks, SAMs from 40k or more distance with no way to hit back or see. If only Israel provided those same munitions as well, but the U.S. will have to step in to provide it. Maybe Turkey provide some since they made their own.

The longest range Israel has is 250km.

 

[jhungary]

can you tell me what's the rating has to do with ability to provide oil .
a question what's the rating of Iran by those credit agency ? do you have doubt if anybody want to buy oil from us we can provide it to them in short notice ?

This is NOT the same with Iran Sanction.......

You cannot compare Iran sanction to Russian sanction. Yes, you were taken out of SWIFT (actually you are back in now) and Central Bank was sanction. But US and EU never block you from exchanging your money with anyone, that's why your currency is quite steady since 2004. But the problem is Russia is now blocked from raising fund because the link to 90% of world reserve currency is blocked off, this HAS NOT been done to Iran, you are free to trade with anyone with oil even under sanction.

The problem Russia is facing is not trade, but its currency. Their currency lost its entire value, which mean they may as well as to use toilet paper to settle foreign debt (that is why Russian threaten to repay the 133 millions bond interest payment in Rouble, instead of USD they were asking) Currency is the building block of any economy. Iran included, and that is what Russia cannot use.

Now sure, China can loan Iran money for 50 or 100 billions at a time, Iranian Rial has not dropped in value greater than 0.00001 US Cents (may have left a 0 somewhere) since 2004. Roble dropped 30% of its value in 21 days. That's is the different. This is not about the trade itself, this is about HOW ARE YOU GOING TO PAY FOR IT.

 

[thetutle]

Several Polish men are arrested for specifically providing "shelter" to young women and children with pretty bad intentions.

source?

Dont you now, polish police arrest people who have bed intentions.

 

[Hack-Hook]

You do know the way to "Guarantee" is for you to say "I can sell it at X amount of price"

That is what we called "Asking Price......."

With this sanction, that X is 0 because you are not allow to trade Gold or Silver or anything......

that x is not zero , Russia still can sell it at x price , you just go to Russia central bank and ask for your foreign currency or gold , they pay you . they are not bound by USA and EU internal laws

The part where you get the initial Yuan to buy Russian Oil to begin with. Money DO NOT COME OUT OF NOWHERE. You either need to print them or swap it with something. There is a amount of circulation a currency can have in a country, going over that will lead to inflation, and you are talking about potential hundred of billions dollars over.........

as I said you print them and you use the dollar you used to pay for oil as a guaranty of your printed money so your currency wont devalue

 

[thetutle]

Sure, there are always some perverted idiots. But if you look into the german criminal statistics, 2/3 of all killings and rapings in germany were done by refugees or done by migration background. Poland does not have this. And that is cause of Poland do not let in refugees from Africa or greater middle east. Poland is doing right at that point.

Can you expand on that? What are people of immigrant backgrounds? What about the germans whose parent for grandparents come from sudatenland or Silesia? are they of immigrant backgrounds?

Over what period of time? Do you count murders in Germany over the last say 100 years? or just one year?

Did Germany have prisons before mass migration to Germany started? Why?

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504612301915230219

 

[jhungary]

yuan only get weakened if there is no foreign currency or valuable metal to back it
in this case USA dollar is used for supporting the value , or more exactly the gold held in fort Knox . now if USA want to say I default on those dollar then its something else


you previously also sold your dollar to get the oil. now the dollar remain in your central bank

The moment you use precious metal to back your currency is the moment you are weakening it.......

There are only certain amount of Precious metal a country is holding, which mean if you back it with precious metal, you are limiting the value within those physical limit (ie the actual metal you are hold)

So, how are you going to issue debt? I mean are you issuing an IOU on the metal you are not holding? Then what guarantee that loan?

And then China does not print USD, which mean the only way they can get USD is either by stop trading it, which will hurt their currency or buy it from overseas, which will hurt their currency. China does not have an unlimited USD supplies......

as I said use the dollar they previously used to buy Oil as a backing for printing new yuan

the whole point is paying them yuan

Then tell me where all the USD goes? Going to your reserve bank in lieu of the RMB you use on Russia? Or spending it somewhere else? If it is the first one, then you are undermining your own currency, because you are hollowing out your own currency within your own central bank. If it is the latter, then there are no change of the equation, you are just exchanging USD to other currency such as Euro. You still have to pay Russia with Yuan for their oil.

 

[Wood]

Nice infield reporting. Shows how Russian tanks are stopped moving forward

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Smerch artillery shooting in Kharkiv region

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504609565626843145

 

[jhungary]

that x is not zero , Russia still can sell it at x price , you just go to Russia central bank and ask for your foreign currency or gold , they pay you . they are not bound by USA and EU internal laws

lol, you do know Russia only have 2300 tons of gold in their reserve bank?

That would last them maybe a month? (1 tons of gold worth 61 millions. a quick calculation would tell you it is 140 billions dollars) Seeing that the Entire Russian GDP is 1.4 trillions dollars a year.

Then what next? Mine more? How many more can you mine and at the mean time, how are you going to pay for the miner?

as I said you print them and you use the dollar you used to pay for oil as a guaranty of your printed money so your currency wont devalue

And as I said China DO NOT HAVE UNLIMITED SUPPLIES of USD, you can use it to stabilise Yuan up to a point, the same with Russia and its gold, what happened if you ran out of USD or Yuan or both?

There is no need to issue an additional 6 trillion CNY every year to support trade with Russia, but only once.

Russia will buy equivalent goods from China, and these CNY will return to China. In the second year, China only needs to re extract 6 trillion CNY from China to buy Russian resources. Of course, Russia may keep some CNY balance because of its trade surplus, but not too much, we can accept it. The Chinese govt will certainly negotiate with the Russian govt to agree on the CNY balance ceiling. China will not allow too many offshore CNY to enter the international market from Russia. We will exchange other physical US dollars&euros for excess CNY.

Secondly, using 6 trillion CNY to buy Russian resources will save us $1 trillion in foreign exchange every year, because we should have used these dollars to buy resources. So that means we printed 6 trillion CNY in exchange for $1 trillion. Of course, the US dollar cannot be used in China, so it cannot hedge the inflation caused by RMB 6 trillion.

Moreover, China already has too many foreign exchange reserves, and an additional $1 trillion a year will lead to a large loss of China's interest rates. Therefore, the Chinese govt will invest the excess US $1 trillion in foreign exchange into B&R projects. Congratulations, both Hungary and Pakistan are the investment priorities in the B&R Project, and you will benefit from it.

As you said, if China needs to print an additional 6 trillion CNY every year, it is really unacceptable to us. But if it is printed only once, it will have little impact on China's inflation. In 2021, China's trade surplus with the United States brought us $1.1 trillion in additional foreign exchange. In order to exchange these balances, the Chinese government issued an additional 7 trillion CNY. This has not had any impact on our inflation, because China has a serious overcapacity, and adding trillions of dollars of orders will not bring serious inflation. Moreover, we will use foreign exchange to buy bulk materials from the international market to export inflation to the world.

You plan is all good except 2 things.

1.) an injection of 6 trillions Yuan will most likely inflate Yuan in an unacceptable range.
2.) Not using USD will limit your option to trade over other oversea market.

As I said many time before, of course you can do that. It's your money and your monetary policy. The question is, would Chinese government did all that to save Russia?

And I don't really want to comment on your "foreign reserve policy" other than saying this is unsustainable. And as I said to you before, it's a bit of wishful thinking.