Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[MH.Yang]

lol, you do know Russia only have 2300 tons of gold in their reserve bank?

That would last them maybe a month? (1 tons of gold worth 61 millions. a quick calculation would tell you it is 140 billions dollars) Seeing that the Entire Russian GDP is 1.4 trillions dollars a year.

Then what next? Mine more? How many more can you mine and at the mean time, how are you going to pay for the miner?

And as I said China DO NOT HAVE UNLIMITED SUPPLIES of USD, you can use it to stabilise Yuan up to a point, the same with Russia and its gold, what happened if you ran out of USD or Yuan or both?

Sir, there are not so many offshore CNY in the world that can consume all China's foreign exchange reserves.

You may have seriously underestimated the amount of foreign exchange in China and seriously overestimated the number of offshore CNY.

 

[thetutle]

A win for Russia is a win for China.

1. Russia is a puppet / proxy country of China.

2. Russia is a neighbor of China.

3. Domination of Ukraine enables China to connect to western Europe via the One Road program, connecting the western shores of The Old World with the eastern shores of The Old World.

The west will not let china dominate and enslave a European nation, even by proxy.

 

[Hack-Hook]

% You cannot compare Iran sanction to Russian sanction. Yes, you were taken out of SWIFT (actually you are back in now) and Central Bank was sanction. But US and EU never block you from exchanging your money with anyone, that's why your currency is quite steady since 2004. But the problem is Russia is now blocked from raising fund because the link to 90% of world reserve currency is blocked off, this HAS NOT been done to Iran, you are free to trade with anyone with oil even under sanction.

we were not allowed swift , we were not allowed trade in valuable metal , our oil industry were sanctioned , we were not allowed to trade in Dollar .
every company wanted to trade with us would have been sanctioned if it get known . i wonder if you mean another iran . we were not even allowed to loan money for fighting Corona virus while according to all laws we were entitled to the loan because we didn't ever used our right to borrow money .
we learned to live with sanction , we used transaction systems which were used since thousand of years ago , we also used barter system , ......

The problem Russia is facing is not trade, but its currency. Their currency lost its entire value, which mean they may as well as to use toilet paper to settle foreign debt (that is why Russian threaten to repay the 133 millions bond interest payment in Rouble, instead of USD they were asking) Currency is the building block of any economy. Iran included, and that is what Russia cannot use.

when sanction put on Iran , iran currency lost 90% of its value . so nothing new there . the only difference is we don have that much of foreign debt .

Now sure, China can loan Iran money for 50 or 100 billions at a time, Iranian Rial has not dropped in value greater than 0.00001 US Cents (may have left a 0 somewhere) since 2004. Roble dropped 30% of its value in 21 days. That's is the different. This is not about the trade itself, this is about HOW ARE YOU GOING TO PAY FOR IT.

Iranian rial lost 90 % of its value in 2004-2005 and again 30-40% in 2018-2019 . but the economy is not only foreign trade for all countries ,for some yes but for countries like Iran foreign trade is not even 10% of our economy , the rest is based on what we do inside our country ,and that made some country more resilient to sanction , and I believe Russia also have a big bunch of economy based on their country not foreign trade , that's why they survived the fall of USSR and the years after it and that's why I believe they survive this time

And then China does not print USD, which mean the only way they can get USD is either by stop trading it, which will hurt their currency or buy it from overseas, which will hurt their currency. China does not have an unlimited USD supplies......

they stop trading it in form of not using it to pay for oil .

 

[Wood]

The west will not let china dominate and enslave a European nation, even by proxy.

The way America has funded Ukraine, I'm sure they will keep the fight going for a while at the least. Biden will fight an election with this

 

[Hack-Hook]

Then tell me where all the USD goes? Going to your reserve bank in lieu of the RMB you use on Russia? Or spending it somewhere else? If it is the first one, then you are undermining your own currency, because you are hollowing out your own currency within your own central bank. If it is the latter, then there are no change of the equation, you are just exchanging USD to other currency such as Euro. You still have to pay Russia with Yuan for their oil.

the dollar go in other investment.to bring more money back
a question what other countries do when they use foreign currencies to back their money ?
by the way you must consider one small fact . printing money is not inherently bad , it become bad when you print money but you cant spend it

lol, you do know Russia only have 2300 tons of gold in their reserve bank?

That would last them maybe a month? (1 tons of gold worth 61 millions. a quick calculation would tell you it is 140 billions dollars) Seeing that the Entire Russian GDP is 1.4 trillions dollars a year.

Then what next? Mine more? How many more can you mine and at the mean time, how are you going to pay for the miner?

in 2007 - 2008 we had 50 billion dollar in reserve ,our economy was more than 500 Billion , how we survived ?

very simple all economy is not foreign trade , you must ask yourself how much of that 1.4trilion Dollar is generated inside Russia and how much that part which is generated inside Russia will be affected by sanctions .

 

[thetutle]

what part is hard Russia sell its oil in Yuan , and use Yuan to buy from chine , the transaction will be by china own money transferring system and will have nothing to do with swift . and then Russia use that money to get the things they need from china and other countries that accept yuan

Yes, this is too complicated for some people to understand.

 

[MH.Yang]

lol, you do know Russia only have 2300 tons of gold in their reserve bank?

That would last them maybe a month? (1 tons of gold worth 61 millions. a quick calculation would tell you it is 140 billions dollars) Seeing that the Entire Russian GDP is 1.4 trillions dollars a year.

Then what next? Mine more? How many more can you mine and at the mean time, how are you going to pay for the miner?

And as I said China DO NOT HAVE UNLIMITED SUPPLIES of USD, you can use it to stabilise Yuan up to a point, the same with Russia and its gold, what happened if you ran out of USD or Yuan or both?


You plan is all good except 2 things.

1.) an injection of 6 trillions Yuan will most likely inflate Yuan in an unacceptable range.
2.) Not using USD will limit your option to trade over other oversea market.

As I said many time before, of course you can do that. It's your money and your monetary policy. The question is, would Chinese government did all that to save Russia?

And I don't really want to comment on your "foreign reserve policy" other than saying this is unsustainable. And as I said to you before, it's a bit of wishful thinking.

Yes, CNY is appreciating abnormally.

First, the reason for the appreciation is that the Ukrainian war led to the flight of European capital to China, and a large number of Europeans used the euro to buy CNY. That has nothing to do with the use of CNY settlement in Russian trade.

Second, such abnormal appreciation will not last long. If necessary, the Chinese govt will intervene in the exchange rate. And raising interest rates in USA will take away a lot of hot money.

Third, this level of appreciation will not affect China's exports. Trump's high tariffs cannot defeat China's export trade. How much impact can these appreciation bring?

 

[Hack-Hook]

And as I said China DO NOT HAVE UNLIMITED SUPPLIES of USD, you can use it to stabilise Yuan up to a point, the same with Russia and its gold, what happened if you ran out of USD or Yuan or both?

it only happen if china ran out of dollar to buy oil. but you think china had to print money each year , while its not the case , Russia sell oil to china and get yuan , but they don't do it to hoard yuan they want to use it in trades , the majority of it will return to china , and china had to print a small amount of money each year to compensate for it (well if they don't have enough reserve money on their hand to be able to compensate for it without having to issue new money)

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

The west will not let china dominate and enslave a European nation, even by proxy.

The west has little say, especially since the US don't even have a foothold in The Old World. Europeans would benefit by having One Road connected to China.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504448016186580992

 

[MajesticPug]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504580157079580676

lmao

Just fake allegation just like the one Russians will use chemical weapons when the US hands were caught in the bio-weapon cookie jar.

 

[Wood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504583312702124041

Putin is apparently very unpopular in Moscow. The people in the city know to use VPN

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Malka artillery shooting in Kharkiv area

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504610334555922433

 

[MH.Yang]

the dollar go in other investment.to bring more money back
a question what other countries do when they use foreign currencies to back their money ?
by the way you must consider one small fact . printing money is not inherently bad , it become bad when you print money but you cant spend it


in 2007 - 2008 we had 50 billion dollar in reserve ,our economy was more than 500 Billion , how we survived ?

very simple all economy is not foreign trade , you must ask yourself how much of that 1.4trilion Dollar is generated inside Russia and how much that part which is generated inside Russia will be affected by sanctions .

Jhungary means that China's foreign exchange reserves can only ensure that the exchange rate of CNY does not depreciate, but can not ensure that CNY does not depreciate at home, that is, inflation, because the US dollar cannot circulate in China.
He meant that if CNY appreciated in the international market and depreciated in the domestic market, it would be unacceptable to the Chinese government.

This view is correct. But he seriously underestimated China's manufacturing capacity, and 6 trillion CNY could not bring inflation.

 

[thetutle]

How do you pay with Yuan when you previously pay with USD, you need to somehow be able to come up the equivalent amount of Yuan in that USD, so tell me, where is that extra Yuan you will need to cover the new payment come from? It has to come from somewhere.

No, No,no, No, Just no. It can be paid with Yuan. Its very very simple