Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504603754431143947

It’s like they’ve never been trained

 

[Hack-Hook]

Let me ask you a simple question.

What would a Chinese Bread seller do if Russian pay them 1 barrel of oil for 100 breads?? Can the Bread seller than sell it? How? Go to the corner of a street and sell it on the road side? I mean, it may make sense if only him doing that. But then how about the same Russian who gave a Chinese Furniture Seller 1 barrel of oil for 100 chair? Or a mobile phone vendor 100 mobile phone? Or 100 pack chewing gum? How are you going to get rid of the oil? I mean, I made 100 bread, all those material I put into making that 100 bread I cannot get it back because I wasn't paid in Money but I got paid by a barrel of oil...., but I can't use the oil, it's not refined and I can't just put it in my car, nor can I sell it, it's not like there is a "oil r' us" in every corner in Chinese street taking rogue crude oil from Chinese street vendor....

And if I were that vendor, I would just sell 100 bread to another Chinese vendor or to a Japanese buyer to get 100 Yuan. Why would I go all in and deep into trouble and being a fender of rogue oil when I can just sell it to other for cold hard cash?

As I said, it may work in your mind, but it is not how economy work...I mean, you are free to believe you can do that, but all I am saying is this is not how economy works....

let just say , Russia sell to some chinese refinery or power planet or whoever own them in china and get Yuan and then use that yuan to pay to that chinese baker or carpenter

 

[Foinikas]

Nope, wrong comparision. NATO\EU is not activelly recruting, it`s attracting. Russia is desperate for the people not escaping.

Well then,tell them to stop attracting and start talking about neutrality,buffer zones and peace.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504603270723088386

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504572109531627525

 

[Hack-Hook]

How do you take it out of circulation in China? You need them to do domestic trade.......

very simple , put the dollar you used to pay Russia to get the oil in your treasury and print yuan backed by that dollar and pay it to Russia

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504595426963509251

Latest UK assessment

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504535827409514501

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504529024202256390

 

[Hack-Hook]

Then how the Russian get the bread? If the bread makers are not involved,.

And you can't balance RUB:RMB because it's one side who pay the money, and the other side pay with oil...The same equation applies, where do the Chinese get the extra money to pay for the Russian oil to begin with?

what part is hard Russia sell its oil in Yuan , and use Yuan to buy from chine , the transaction will be by china own money transferring system and will have nothing to do with swift . and then Russia use that money to get the things they need from china and other countries that accept yuan

 

[jhungary]

You mean, suppose that before the Ukrainian war, China spent $1 trillion a year to buy oil and other resources from Russia. After the Ukrainian war, China printed 6 trillion CNY every year to buy resources from Russia, and Russia used 6 trillion CNY to buy goods from China. Because this is far greater than Russia's previous purchases, the entry of these CNY into the Chinese market will bring some inflation to China. And China will also add $1 trillion in additional reserves.

But are you aware that China has a serious overcapacity, and the increased Russian orders will not bring too much inflation, but will only stimulate economic development. Additional foreign exchange reserves can be invested in other countries through B&R, which also means transferring inflation to the world.

First of all, if you do that, you still need to digest that "6 Trillions" Yuan you printed, and if it is like you said you are printing it every year, that mean you deflate your own currency by the same volume every year. Just because they are going to reinvest it back to China does not mean anything, the more currency floating in the free market the more it deflate your currency value. That's macroeconomic 101....6 times the currency inflation is a LOT in case you are wondering, and 1 trillions dollar added to circulation every year is also a lot. US as a whole, with massive Financial backing, only needed 2 trillions dollars in circulation, and you are talking about adding an entire US circulation in China every 2 years......

Secondly, you can't simply pick up all the Russian oil and gas. 1.) you had contract with other oil production country (Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran) So what is going to happen to all that contract? You get them as well or you just break them? Gas also is a problem, 2.) China don't use Natural Gas or LNG (not LPG) as much as the entire EU combine (China import around 50 billions cubic meters, EU as a whole imported around 420 billions cubic meters)

List of countries by natural gas imports - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So are you telling me China is just going to stomach it (Bear in mind you can't sell them) or you are saying China are to ditch all their renewable and switch to gas as a whole??

Finally, infrastructure is different. Russian oil is not the same as oil from Saudi or Qatar or even Iran, Russian oil is heavy oil, Saudi oil is Light Crude, you can technically refine Heavy into Light Crude, but are you saying you are going to build a few refinery just for this change? Because you can just use them Russian Crude like you do with Saudi and Iran Crude. Another issue is all the delivery network Russian currently have is toward EU, you will also need to expand the network to even accommodate slight increase. Are you going to pay for that as well??

 

[Paul2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504541336992575493

It's a huge force, but it has no offensive posture.

If Russia will completely go nuts, and attack from Belarus, NATO can easily push the back to the border, but otherwise unless they incurse on Belarus territory, they will just keep cross order aggression going.

This is why I am telling there is really no "win" scenario for NATO bloc in Ukraine unless they arm Ukraine to such extend, that they outgun Russians (this is impossible without huge airforce.)

The only real victory scenario for the West in Ukraine is possible if Ukraine can not only fully reclaim its territory, but also disrupt Russian offensive staging in Belarus, and inside Russia itself.

This is clearly impossible without NATO going on offensive.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Good luck with that. As it stands Russia cant deliver oil or gas in a few month because technology embargo and Russia has no ability to make its own. For same reason collapsed oil industry in Venezuela and Russia could not help them.

we were under sanction for decades and we even manage to restart Venezuela Oil industry . I'm sure Russia industrial capabilities is not less than us

 

[jhungary]

Let me remind you of one thing.

In 2021, USA increased the issuance of currency by $3 trillion, most of these dollars entered China and bought Chinese goods, the US trade deficit reached US $1.1 trillion.

However, these new orders did not bring inflation to China, China's CPI was only 0.8% in 2021. These orders have instead stimulated China's economic development, with China's economy growing by $3 trillion in 2021.
China's factory easily eats trillions of US dollars of orders from USA, why do you think hundreds of billions of US dollars of orders from Russia will bring inflation to China?

You can't use the economic model of western countries to analyze China. China has a serious overcapacity. The increase of overseas markets will not bring inflation, but economic growth.

It's US, not China that issue the insurance of currency, why would Chinese currency be inflated? I am not aware Yuan is pegged to USD. On the other hand, US inflation is at 7.9% in 2021........And then you are talking about a massively backed up USD network which have numerous way to share their currency debt. If you do that in China (Ie printing 15 trillions Yuan) you are going to get more than 7.9% inflation

And there are no "Eastern" or "Western" economic model, you may have different law, but it is the same basic economic principle that applies across all country. What you are effectively saying is "Supply and Demand" principle does not really apply in China..............LOL

 

[Paul2]

At current rates, Russian losses will exceed 3,000 by mid to late April. I don’t see how they can sustain this.

By stopping losses. They without a doubt know how much they lose in botched offensives.

They still have tons of armour, SAMs, and artillery to hold where they are.

Even if you completely remove Russian irregular forces like its national guard, and paramilitaries, Russian regular forces will still be big enough.

 

[thetutle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504506985328386061

These poor people will be conquered next by russia.