Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[thetutle]

In short term? Nothing. There are still foreign reserve within Russia that Russian can use, and until that has depleted, nothing will change. But once that has been depleted, then depends on how much China help out, it range from business as usual to everything close down and Russia went back to coupon system for just about everything.

I don't know how long Russia can hang on to those foreign money and I don't know when will the West lift the sanction, so I cannot tell you what will happen in a year or so.

you are saying russia needs foreign reserves to use in russia? Russia uses the ruble in russia.

It only needs foreign reserves for trade with other countries that demand a hard currency.

countries have their own currencies for domestic use.

A winning side would never put land-mines in their territory. This is proof that the Ukrainians know that it is just a matter of time before the Russians seize Odessa.

so you're still arguing with yourself about who is winning?

 

[dBSPL]

A winning side would never put land-mines in their territory. This is proof that the Ukrainians know that it is just a matter of time before the Russians seize Odessa.

The occupying party is Russia. In other words, Russia is the side that moves to win. Ukraine is not winning anything. On the contrary It continues to lose every day. All it can do is slow Russian army down and stop it at a certain point. That may be possible, once the attrition of the Russian army and economy has reached the point where a Ukraine war victory will no longer be meaning.

The destruction of the infrastructure that Russia can use, also mining of the territorial waters and routes that can be used by the Russian logistic are very understandable and even necessary solutions.

 

[MH.Yang]

Where does the "Russia uses CNY" come from??

And no, they cannot exchange dollars and Euro thru offshore CNY........Set aside legality for a minutes, I mean how do you suppose they do that when all their asset outside Russia and China is frozen?? Who guarantee that "exchange"? And then the entire legality come into question. you do that and you will probably will pay a big fine, remember how US get Canada to arrest Huawei Director's daughter for "circumventing Iranian sanction?"

Meng Wanzhou was persecuted by trump. Huawei cannot be stupid enough to do business in Iran through the British HSBC.
BKCL will not provide the FBI with customer information. BKCL is a state-owned enterprise. It belongs to the Chinese govt, not the British.
What is more absurd is that Huawei is a private enterprise, and Americans can persecute Meng Wanzhou. China's oil and other enterprises are all state-owned enterprises. Who is USA going to arrest? Arrest Xi JinPing? If it is to arrest the top management of these state-owned enterprises, the Chinese govt can replace them at any time. Does that make sense?


BTW: One more thing we need to know. China's trade with Russia and other countries through BKCL is not that China is afraid of US sanctions, that is China leaving room for Western governments to solve problems. China also attaches importance to the market and trade relations of western countries. Western govts also understand this, so they will only complain to China symbolically, and will not undermine bilateral trade relations.

China's trade right is China's sovereignty. China is a country capable of safeguarding its sovereignty. China is willing to avoid conflicts with western countries by setting up BKCL, which is China's goodwill to the West. Western governments generally understand and accept this goodwill. Even trump is not crazy enough to pursue the three shareholders of BKCL. Otherwise, Wall Street will help the Chinese find a mental disease gunman. We know that Wall Street has a lot of experience in this area, Kennedy and others can testify.

 

[Wood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504413396980142086

 

[thetutle]

Again, answer me these two question.

1.) Where do you get your money from?
2.) Where do the Russian get their money from?

US never sanction any other bank does not have any bearing in this, because Central Bank of China is the one that initiate monetary policy in China. As long as Central Bank of China was not sanctioned, you can raise whatever fund you want.

But bear in mind that you are no talking about a few billions dollars, or a few hundred billions dollars. You are talking about loaning trillions of dollars worth of your currency to a known default risk. Which mean either the Russia will pay you back with Rouble (which worth nothing) or they will not pay you back at all, at least until the sanction lifted. That mean the only way you can recover those money is to write it off and print new one. Again, A trillions dollars worth or more?

On the other hand, how do you think Russia is going to pay you back? They cannot guarantee their money, which mean there are no way you can set a price with them (Because that would depends on a currency swap deal and again, would you swap Rouble with RMB now? That's the question) unless you are talking about goods to goods trade, then you need to ask yourself this. What good would it do to Huawei, Oppo, SAIC or Chinese bank get oil or gas in return of their goods and service?? Can they spend those oil?

I think you overestimate the role reserve currencies have on a country. Or the importance they play in international trade.

No doubt, being excluded fro swift or being prevented in trading USD or EUR will affect you if you want to raise debt internationally or trade in complex financial derivatives invented in London.

But to run your economy or trade oil with china, it is totally unnecessary. Venice was trading with china long before USD or EUR even existed.

 

[Apollon]

A lot of this is held by Fed Reserve and last time Germany wanted to inspect her gold, they flatly rejected their request. So I am not sure, Germany will ever be able to see her gold held in the US, :-(

Germany repatriated most of its gold 3 years ago.

 

[dBSPL]

The European Union demanded that Turkey shut down RT and Sputnik channels.

Head of the European Union Delegation to Turkey Nikolaus Meyer-Landrut stated that they expect Ankara to impose restrictions on "Russian propaganda channels" such as the Russian television channel RT.

They totally screwed up. We should start by closing the European media organizations that make anti-Turkish propaganda from morning to night.

 

[Messerschmitt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504447443739586572

 

[Wood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504428902835445763

 

[jhungary]

I think you overestimate the role reserve currencies have on a country. Or the importance they play in international trade.

No doubt, being excluded fro swift or being prevented in trading USD or EUR will affect you if you want to raise debt internationally or trade in complex financial derivatives invented in London.

But to run your economy or trade oil with china, it is totally unnecessary. Venice was trading with china long before USD or EUR even existed.

First of all, when Venice was trading with China back in 1800, you are talking about a small amount of trade, mostly from silk road or by ship at sea. You can handle that volume with gold, silver or what have you, but you can't if you are talking about multi billions dollars or even trillions dollars of trade, how small the represented value of gold you need to guarantee for you to have guarantee 1 trillions worth of trade with 2300 tons of gold, and that's assume all trade are done with a single entity, China.

Second of all, reserve currency is the backbone of guaranteeing your own currency, as I said before, you cannot use USD to guarantee the value of USD, you may as well crave the number of 100 and said that guarantee 100 US Dollar bill. That's the same with every other country on earth that are using the Fiat Currency system. You need a constant influx of foreign currency to exchange with other nation to guarantee your own. 100 USD worth 100 USD is because at any time I can trade it with 76 GBP or 134 AUD, and I have enough GBP and AUD to guarantee those transaction, that's why a note that worth no more than 10cents to make have a denomination of $100 USD.

Now, imagine, all the USD and GBP or AUD is gone, and Russia can only trade RMB to keep the currency balance. How much RMB would you think they needed? This is not about "Convenience" this is about whether or not I can guarantee Rouble to a certain level of value to keep that value steady and use it for Trade. I mean, who's going to trade with you if this minute 1 Rouble is worth 0.0059 Yuan and the next is worth 0.0050 Yuan??

 

[Apollon]

First of all, when Venice was trading with China back in 1800, you are talking about a small amount of trade, mostly from silk road or by ship at sea. You can handle that volume with gold, silver or what have you, but you can't if you are talking about multi billions dollars or even trillions dollars of trade, how small the represented value of gold you need to guarantee for you to have guarantee 1 trillions worth of trade with 2300 tons of gold, and that's assume all trade are done with a single entity, China.

Second of all, reserve currency is the backbone of guaranteeing your own currency, as I said before, you cannot use USD to guarantee the value of USD, you may as well crave the number of 100 and said that guarantee 100 US Dollar bill. That's the same with every other country on earth that are using the Fiat Currency system. You need a constant influx of foreign currency to exchange with other nation to guarantee your own. 100 USD worth 100 USD is because at any time I can trade it with 76 GBP or 134 AUD, and I have enough GBP and AUD to guarantee those transaction, that's why a note that worth no more than 10cents to make have a denomination of $100 USD.

Now, imagine, all the USD and GBP or AUD is gone, and Russia can only trade RMB to keep the currency balance. How much RMB would you think they needed? This is not about "Convenience" this is about whether or not I can guarantee Rouble to a certain level of value to keep that value steady and use it for Trade. I mean, who's going to trade with you if this minute 1 Rouble is worth 0.0059 Yuan and the next is worth 0.0050 Yuan??

2nd biggest currency is €. Not GBP

 

[jhungary]

you are saying russia needs foreign reserves to use in russia? Russia uses the ruble in russia.

It only needs foreign reserves for trade with other countries that demand a hard currency.

countries have their own currencies for domestic use.


so you're still arguing with yourself about who is winning?

Again, this is about Fiat Currency.

The golden rule of Fiat Currency is. YOU CANNOT USE ROUBLE TO GUARANTEE THE VALUE OF ROUBLE IN RUSSIA.

You need to have enough foreign currency in your own country to trade so they can guarantee the value of your own.

Marco Economic 101. How do I define a note worth no more than 10 cents to have $100 dollars? You can't just say "This note is worth $100" and people are going to believe it is when it only worth 10 cents. You need a way to "Guarantee" that value. You do that by have 76 GBP in your bank, and when you trade that 76 GBP with an UK Bank, you get the value of $100 back, and the UK (or Australia, or China, or Japan or any other country on earth) did the same to keep their own currency valued.

So yes, unless you do not want to guarantee your own currency anymore, you will need to have Foreign Reserve in your own country.

 

[dBSPL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504437531164745729

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504437534251790343

@Apollon

 

[jhungary]

2nd biggest currency is €. Not GBP

Don't think I said 2nd Biggest Currency is GBP

I use GBP as an example simply because I am lazy. I got to type 3 letters instead of 4.....

Meng Wanzhou was persecuted by trump. Huawei cannot be stupid enough to do business in Iran through the British HSBC.
BKCL will not provide the FBI with customer information. BKCL is a state-owned enterprise. It belongs to the Chinese govt, not the British.
What is more absurd is that Huawei is a private enterprise, and Americans can persecute Meng Wanzhou. China's oil and other enterprises are all state-owned enterprises. Who is USA going to arrest? Arrest Xi JinPing? If it is to arrest the top management of these state-owned enterprises, the Chinese govt can replace them at any time. Does that make sense?


BTW: One more thing we need to know. China's trade with Russia and other countries through BKCL is not that China is afraid of US sanctions, that is China leaving room for Western governments to solve problems. China also attaches importance to the market and trade relations of western countries. Western govts also understand this, so they will only complain to China symbolically, and will not undermine bilateral trade relations.

That is beside the point, the point is, this is about legality and what you said is illegal.

And also BKCL is not Swiss bank, good luck finding an overseas bank that will deal with that with anonymity, your "scheme" to trade offshore Yuan under the table would have to depend a third party overseas bank, and while you may say Chinese bank not afraid of sanction, you probably cannot say the same with other overseas bank.

Especially the one that have enough USD and YUAN to perform such a trade.......

That also did not answer my question. Where is the Russian "CNY" come from? You can only have a certain amount of CNY world wide and domestically without damaging your own economy. So where are those CNY russian is going to use is coming from? From where I see it, you either print more or extend more line of Credit to Russia, which mean inflation, or you buy RMB back from Overseas and trade it with Russia, which devalue RMB, either way is a poison for CYN

 

[thetutle]

Second of all, reserve currency is the backbone of guaranteeing your own currency, as I said before, you cannot use USD to guarantee the value of USD, you may as well crave the number of 100 and said that guarantee 100 US Dollar bill. That's the same with every other country on earth that are using the Fiat Currency system. You need a constant influx of foreign currency to exchange with other nation to guarantee your own. 100 USD worth 100 USD is because at any time I can trade it with 76 GBP or 134 AUD, and I have enough GBP and AUD to guarantee those transaction, that's why a note that worth no more than 10cents to make have a denomination of $100 USD.

Now, imagine, all the USD and GBP or AUD is gone, and Russia can only trade RMB to keep the currency balance. How much RMB would you think they needed? This is not about "Convenience" this is about whether or not I can guarantee Rouble to a certain level of value to keep that value steady and use it for Trade. I mean, who's going to trade with you if this minute 1 Rouble is worth 0.0059 Yuan and the next is worth 0.0050 Yuan??

I think the issue here is this "guarantee". You think that, before Russia and China can trade RMB:RUB russia needs some sort of hard currency in its bank in order to guarantee that the RUB will maintain its value.

You think gold cant do this? you think Russia having RMB will not do this?

And thirdly, are you sure they need any sort of guarantee? RUB is a fiat currency also.

Fourthly, I am certain that the trade can be performed one way or another even if the obstacles you talk about really do exist. I know this because international trade used to happen way before the gold standard was totally abandoned in the 1970's. I also know that Europe and America were to disappear down a hole, International trade would continue. I think this is pretty obvious.