jhungary
MILITARY PROFESSIONAL
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I will say what Financial Time editor (forgot her name) said on TV.
Just because Russia confiscated an Apple Store, that does not mean iPhone will magically appear.
Before you said "Oh, how about Huawei, Oppo or Xiao Mi?" You need to know that all of those phone have sanctioned technology (IC, Wifi, Memory Chip and so on), which mean to take over "Western Business" in this case, a phone store, you will need to have your mobile phone company set aside a brand new production line, producing phone just for Russia market that is rid of all Western Sanctioned Technology, or they will risk being sanction themselves. That goes to any sort of advance manufacturing business. You will need to separate your production line, and leave one just for Russia and another one for the rest of the world.
Now the question you need to ask is, would Chinese company willing to open a new production line just for Russia? And that is assuming Russia market can afford anything.
Yes, I can see food business or other simple production China can take over (like textile or something like that) but anything else is just opening a new can of worm.
With what? Solely RMB? How are you going to get the extra RMB you need to service Russian Market? Just because they switch to RMB line of credit does not mean you don't need to inflate your own currency, you do know Russia Market worth 1.4 Trillions USD (or ~ 7 trillions RMB) before the war, sure that is going to go down, but I doubt you can create an entire RMB line of credit that can service the entire Russian industry.
Bear in mind Russia do not have the mean to borrow any money from overseas bank, so either Rouble or nothing to guarantee your Trade which mean if you want to trade with Russia, that have to be RMB, and ALL of them have to be RMB. I can see a steady program over 10 years elevating RMB amount to satisfy the Russian Market. It's nearly impossible to do it out of a sudden
Just because something is digital, that does not mean it does not count into your currency system........Or you really think Quantitative Easing is US actually printing 2.054 trillions dollar worth of new dollar bills?
Again, You either underwrite the entire Russian Economy with RMB, or you uses Rouble and have them in your central bank to back those transaction, which I seriously doubt Chinese Central Bank will do that seeing Rouble dropping in value like crazy. (It only crawl back 0.2 cents value and it would be a great achievement)
Also, how much oil and gas you think China needed? You are not talking about hundred billions dollars here and there, you are talking about Trillion of Dollars worth. And do you think Russia on the other hand can afford Trillions dollars worth of Chinese goods? I mean you need people to have money to be able to buy stuff, you cannot just say "Hey I trade you 1 trillions dollar worth of Oil and I sent you 1 trillions worth of electronic" it would be the end of 2030 until Russia can get rid of all those electronic....
