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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

If Ukr sams are decimated enough high altitude Uavs(Orion,Mohajer-6) can do wonders just like in Karabagh conflict with immunity from anti air attacks. Especially these are open plain fields and Ukranian vehicles like artillery will be exposed. One exception is just like Atacms secret delivery of F16s to Ukraine or F16s taking off from Romania or Poland, refuelling mid air and some Polish pilots are sent with F16s to take down Russian planes and drones and do some ground attack claiming these are Ukranian F16s and Ukr pilots(it will take a long time to train Ukranian pilots so the best option is someone else using these F16s to break sieges in Avdiivka and other areas). In that case to break down the surprise of F16s, Russian A-150 awacs can provide info as well as long range radars of Su-35s that would inform other interceptor planes and S300+s to the scene.
What you think so countries who will fake the attack will nit face Russian anger...
 
Again, you need to know where those are before you can attack, no one will turn on their radar if you don't fly your sorties inside their attack range, I mean nobody is going to turn on their radar if they can't attack, that's the problem it's not whether you can reach stand off range.......

There are 2 issue.

1.) You need to get them when they target you, because that's how you know where they are, it's no point to have a formation flying bait and then leave and have another group to come in and finish the job, they may move.

2.) You need to have the capability to attack the entire system in one go, for example, a Patriot System is not just 1 truck, it's 12 systems, with land base radar, search radar and multiple TEL, if you go in and cannot completely destroyed the ENTIRE system, that's pointless. Because each system have backup to the backup. Which mean if you hit a TEL here and there, it won't eat up to their Anti-Air Capability. Which mean you are talking about a major Air Op with maybe even up to 50% of Russian Air Asset flying into Ukraine and attack anything and everything at once, and that is going to have serious attrition for Russia, because you will be reached in order for you to reach someone. And as I said, this is what Russia don't want to do.

I mean, if they aren't even putting out sorties on their own soil and try to fend off drone and missile attack and what not, what make you think they will do it to cover the entire Ukraine............
East of Dnieper is a zone where Ukraine mostly uses Buk Osa and similar. Regarding the costs an operation to Kiev might require many Ruaf planes but Avdiivka and Robotyne are not Kiev. There are logistics costs for Ukraine to deploy any system there. Even if they deploy Nasams for example regarding the problems you mentioned. Avdiivka and Robotyne type of areas are different than heavily supplied areas like Kiev or Odessa.

1-Radars can stay close and disappear. Orion drones enter and zap out artillery and tanks like in Karabagh without intervention. Radars open and down a few Orions but rwr on Orion alerts Su 35 with elint pod to precisely locate Nasams. Then alerting other planes to attack with stand off weapons like fab 250 or more range variants. Some artillery + Nasams Ukraine loss with only unmanned Orion lost from Russian side.

2-Those are true for Patriot installations in Kiev but bringing them to Avdiivka is a huge logistics issue. Nasams as well. Considering they have similar components like S300s in Karabagh conflict many Armenian air defenses were made inoperable by striking only their key compoments not whole installation. Radar is a key component that cannot be easily replaced for sam systems and make them inoperable for a long time. Russia needs to develop and install sensitive elint pods on Su 35s that can distinguish decoys as well and even without needing spy satellite photos high weight less mobile systems like Nasams Iris-T can be precisely located from long ranges.
 
What you think so countries who will fake the attack will nit face Russian anger...
It will be claimed as Ukranian pilots did the F16 stunt. Base can be in Romania or Poland. There is no time to train Ukranian pilots so others can be used and stay silent during the operation.Russia does not want the conflict to expand to other especially nato countries as well like Poland. If this type of attack is not detected in time by A-150 and Su35s Ruaf will have high end aircraft losses which cannot be replaced easily so better prepare for such scenario with Awacs-Su35 radar coverage on continiously in operation zone.
 
East of Dnieper is a zone where Ukraine mostly uses Buk Osa and similar. Regarding the costs an operation to Kiev might require many Ruaf planes but Avdiivka and Robotyne are not Kiev. There are logistics costs for Ukraine to deploy any system there. Even if they deploy Nasams for example regarding the problems you mentioned. Avdiivka and Robotyne type of areas are different than heavily supplied areas like Kiev or Odessa.

1-Radars can stay close and disappear. Orion drones enter and zap out artillery and tanks like in Karabagh without intervention. Radars open and down a few Orions but rwr on Orion alerts Su 35 with elint pod to precisely locate Nasams. Then alerting other planes to attack with stand off weapons like fab 250 or more range variants. Some artillery + Nasams Ukraine loss with only unmanned Orion lost from Russian side.

2-Those are true for Patriot installations in Kiev but bringing them to Avdiivka is a huge logistics issue. Nasams as well. Considering they have similar components like S300s in Karabagh conflict many Armenian air defenses were made inoperable by striking only their key compoments not whole installation. Radar is a key component that cannot be easily replaced for sam systems and make them inoperable for a long time. Russia needs to develop and install sensitive elint pods on Su 35s that can distinguish decoys as well and even without needing spy satellite photos high weight less mobile systems like Nasams Iris-T can be precisely located from long ranges.
it happens in certain extent like you described,not avdivka area but it would be hard to commit more AD systems there then already are.

 
East of Dnieper is a zone where Ukraine mostly uses Buk Osa and similar. Regarding the costs an operation to Kiev might require many Ruaf planes but Avdiivka and Robotyne are not Kiev. There are logistics costs for Ukraine to deploy any system there. Even if they deploy Nasams for example regarding the problems you mentioned. Avdiivka and Robotyne type of areas are different than heavily supplied areas like Kiev or Odessa.

Again, you can't just try to pincer an area, whether it is Robotyne, Kyiv or Avdiivka, you need train troop to do the work, yes, the difficulty level are different, because to Pincer Kyiv, you will need at least 400,000 troop doing an open pincer from North, East and South, that's virtually off Russian menu, but that does not mean you can just use 30,000 untrain troop to try to pincer Avdiivka, because it will ended up like what they do, which is rush in for a frontal assault, not because they lack them number, but because they lack the skill.

The troop itself is a problem, you need 6 - 9 months training and countless of FTX to pull out a pincer movement on a city, you don't just push 2 fronts into the enemy, that's not pincer, that's just a 2 frontal assault. There are a lot of leapfrogging, firing artillery ahead of your advance, you need blocking, funneling, and anything else I can't remember on top of my head. That is not going to be doable for Russian troop that drafted 4 months ago, and if you cannot put the 2 fronts to works together, again, you are just launching 2 frontal assaults at once, and it will most definitely got beaten back by even a Brigade of Ukrainian defence with potent artillery support. That is like how VC trying to take Khe Shan from US Marine, they don't act like one force, they acted like a separate attack, and one go after the city and one go after the main camp without synchronizing move, and that got beaten back by a division of Marine. That is the problem not how many you are facing.

1-Radars can stay close and disappear. Orion drones enter and zap out artillery and tanks like in Karabagh without intervention. Radars open and down a few Orions but rwr on Orion alerts Su 35 with elint pod to precisely locate Nasams. Then alerting other planes to attack with stand off weapons like fab 250 or more range variants. Some artillery + Nasams Ukraine loss with only unmanned Orion lost from Russian side.

How do you know where is the Ukrainian artillery so you can hit? Are you suggesting those Orion Drone and Su-35 stay airborne and look for those??

Again, you need a theater-wise campaign to map any AA and AS threat, even if you are being attack by artillery, and you figured out where those artillery are, they won't be there when you send your drone and after them, they move. So, what you said will not work, you need active response, not passive. You need to be able to attack them WHISLE the Ukrainian are using their artillery, otherwise what you do is just chasing ghost, you are chasing down location 5 or 10 minutes after they attack, they will be long gone by then, and that's the primary, not to mention you fly in Su-35 in an unsuppressed space you WILL GET SHOT DOWN.

And you can't just do that in 1 side of the battlefield either, you need to be able to do it at least on the entire frontline, preferably entire country.....
2-Those are true for Patriot installations in Kiev but bringing them to Avdiivka is a huge logistics issue. Nasams as well. Considering they have similar components like S300s in Karabagh conflict many Armenian air defenses were made inoperable by striking only their key compoments not whole installation. Radar is a key component that cannot be easily replaced for sam systems and make them inoperable for a long time. Russia needs to develop and install sensitive elint pods on Su 35s that can distinguish decoys as well and even without needing spy satellite photos high weight less mobile systems like Nasams Iris-T can be precisely located from long ranges.

Those are true for all system, you don't just have 1 single unit in a system other than MANPAD. Buk is made of 10 system a BUK TAR (Target Acquisition Radar) 6 TELAR, and 3 TEL, and they can be link to other Buk System in the area....S-300P have 4 components ( TELAR, LLV, TEL and TAR) with virtually unlimited mix and match.

And then you don't position your system in the frontline in Avdviikva, you position them in range to protect them, which usually 150-200 km from its protection because you don't need to have 0 engagement distant, as in you don't need to be deployed WITHIN Avdviikva to shoot down aircraft or drone that fly into Avdviikva...... While yes there will be some TEL close enough to defend Avdiikva, those are in turn protected by other TEL further away, ...

And finally, you can't assume Ukrainian Air Defence are not deployed in a Balance Approach, I mean sure, if you think they can't or won't deploy whatever system then yes, what you said would happen, but then, does that mean it is true that they won't deploy NASAM or Even Patriot to defend Adviikva?

I mean all that while most you are proposing is true if you can pull it off, but how you can achieve what you say you will do IS the problem here, I can say if Russian pincer Kyiv from 3 sides and Russia will win the war, that is true IF YOU CAN ACTUALLY DO IT and have 3 pincer on Kyiv doorstep, but how you achieve that IS the issue, not whether or not pincering Kyiv will win the war for Russia.......
 
Again, you can't just try to pincer an area, whether it is Robotyne, Kyiv or Avdiivka, you need train troop to do the work, yes, the difficulty level are different, because to Pincer Kyiv, you will need at least 400,000 troop doing an open pincer from North, East and South, that's virtually off Russian menu, but that does not mean you can just use 30,000 untrain troop to try to pincer Avdiivka, because it will ended up like what they do, which is rush in for a frontal assault, not because they lack them number, but because they lack the skill.

The troop itself is a problem, you need 6 - 9 months training and countless of FTX to pull out a pincer movement on a city, you don't just push 2 fronts into the enemy, that's not pincer, that's just a 2 frontal assault. There are a lot of leapfrogging, firing artillery ahead of your advance, you need blocking, funneling, and anything else I can't remember on top of my head. That is not going to be doable for Russian troop that drafted 4 months ago, and if you cannot put the 2 fronts to works together, again, you are just launching 2 frontal assaults at once, and it will most definitely got beaten back by even a Brigade of Ukrainian defence with potent artillery support. That is like how VC trying to take Khe Shan from US Marine, they don't act like one force, they acted like a separate attack, and one go after the city and one go after the main camp without synchronizing move, and that got beaten back by a division of Marine. That is the problem not how many you are facing.



How do you know where is the Ukrainian artillery so you can hit? Are you suggesting those Orion Drone and Su-35 stay airborne and look for those??

Again, you need a theater-wise campaign to map any AA and AS threat, even if you are being attack by artillery, and you figured out where those artillery are, they won't be there when you send your drone and after them, they move. So, what you said will not work, you need active response, not passive. You need to be able to attack them WHISLE the Ukrainian are using their artillery, otherwise what you do is just chasing ghost, you are chasing down location 5 or 10 minutes after they attack, they will be long gone by then, and that's the primary, not to mention you fly in Su-35 in an unsuppressed space you WILL GET SHOT DOWN.

And you can't just do that in 1 side of the battlefield either, you need to be able to do it at least on the entire frontline, preferably entire country.....


Those are true for all system, you don't just have 1 single unit in a system other than MANPAD. Buk is made of 10 system a BUK TAR (Target Acquisition Radar) 6 TELAR, and 3 TEL, and they can be link to other Buk System in the area....S-300P have 4 components ( TELAR, LLV, TEL and TAR) with virtually unlimited mix and match.

And then you don't position your system in the frontline in Avdviikva, you position them in range to protect them, which usually 150-200 km from its protection because you don't need to have 0 engagement distant, as in you don't need to be deployed WITHIN Avdviikva to shoot down aircraft or drone that fly into Avdviikva...... While yes there will be some TEL close enough to defend Avdiikva, those are in turn protected by other TEL further away, ...

And finally, you can't assume Ukrainian Air Defence are not deployed in a Balance Approach, I mean sure, if you think they can't or won't deploy whatever system then yes, what you said would happen, but then, does that mean it is true that they won't deploy NASAM or Even Patriot to defend Adviikva?

I mean all that while most you are proposing is true if you can pull it off, but how you can achieve what you say you will do IS the problem here, I can say if Russian pincer Kyiv from 3 sides and Russia will win the war, that is true IF YOU CAN ACTUALLY DO IT and have 3 pincer on Kyiv doorstep, but how you achieve that IS the issue, not whether or not pincering Kyiv will win the war for Russia.......
Pincer is a high risk high return move. It depends on Russian preparedness but artillery control on main roads is an enough pincer to choke and tap out Avdiivka area and Ru is somewhat close to that. Full encirclement is not necessary. There can be tunnels though which need to be detected and stike with bunker busters that is a remaining problem.

Orion just like Tb2 has atgm on wings. It will strike artillery tanks and others by itself if it has good optics-camera realtime without alerting and waiting for some other aircraft. You can watch some Tb2 videos in Karabagh for example. Once detected they are hunted down in seconds they are tracked and hit from 7000m high.

Ad can run away but once they are detected by elint it is not easy to carry systems like S300 away easily. Ukraine did some successful strikes on Russian S300s in a similar manner by spy sat photos. These are not shoot scoot systems. Nasams and Patriot are similar to S300. Smaller systems are more mobile and can run away like Osa Buk. Orion can be installed with rwr-Sar picturing pod-elint pod. Without risking Ruaf these type of operations can be handled with larger high altitude drones and long range strikes can be made with Ruaf.
 
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Pincer is a high risk high return move. It depends on Russian preparedness but artillery control on main roads is an enough pincer to choke and tap out Avdiivka area and Ru is somewhat close to that. Full encirclement is not necessary. There can be tunnels though which need to be detected and stike with bunker busters that is a remaining problem.

This is a map of Avdviika

1698403952601.png

And this is Avdviika currently

1698404689813.png

Explain to me how you can cut off ALL MAIN ROAD without full encirclement.

On the other hand, if you can use Artillery to "Control" MSR, you already had enough artillery to level the entire area, because you are virtually talking about the same thing, if they do, they won't be attacking it with a frontal assault......

Orion just like Tb2 has atgm on wings. It will strike artillery tanks and others by itself if it has good optics-camera realtime without alerting and waiting for some other aircraft. You can watch some Tb2 videos in Karabagh for example. Once detected they are hunted down in seconds they are tracked and hit from 7000m high.

Again, the issue is HOW, how do you know where the Ukrainian Artillery are located?

I don't know if you have ever used a drone before, you are literally looking at a picture of a narrow perspective and you can't have that kind of equipment fitted on a drone the size of TB 2 to provide RTS at 7000 meters (That's almost 30000 ft). You need a drone as large as RQ-4 that can mount a SAR like that (Which is 8 times the size). That is too big to fit in a drone 8m x 16m, set aside Orion does not have low LCS, they could be detected and taken out even before getting close to their Area of Operation.

Again, it's not that easy as you said, or again, they would have already done it....



Ad can run away but once they are detected by elint it is not easy to carry systems like S300 away easily. Ukraine did some successful strikes on Russian S300s in a similar manner by spy sat photos. These are not shoot scoot systems. Nasams and Patriot are similar to S300. Smaller systems are more mobile and can run away like Osa Buk. Orion can be installed with rwr-Sar picturing pod-elint pod. Without risking Ruaf these type of operations can be handled with larger high altitude drones and long range strikes can be made with Ruaf.

You misunderstood my point, I am not talking about Air Defence move away, I was talking about Artillery or Armour or any mobile target can move away.

Air Defence are layered, as I said, you need to be able to take them all out at once and that operation is going to require a lot of air asset, which mean you a lot of Russian Air Asset will be shot down in order to take out Ukrainian Air Defnce Area-wise. Attrition is the issue with Air Defence, not the fact that they can move....
 
Yes NATO is defensive. Russia nuclear missiles from Königsberg just take minutes to nuke Europe, turning everything to ashes. Do you seriously think anyone in Europe would attack Russia? For what reason. Europe just needs cheap oil and gas from Russia, nothing else.
Okay. I don't think Europe is the problem here, US is the problem and Euro by virtue of being a vassal state just had to go along.
 
Okay. I don't think Europe is the problem here, US is the problem and Euro by virtue of being a vassal state just had to go along.
Of course Europe is not a threat to Russia we are living in old ages where Hitler or Napoleon still alive. All Putin’s cheap and cheaper propaganda supported by brainless Ccp.

If NATO or Europe is a threat, why the russians withdraw all troops to the NATO? Look at the border Russia to Finland, the new member of the alliance. The number russian soldiers there is close to 0. Putin needs every single man and women in Ukraine.
 
This is a map of Avdviika

View attachment 965628
And this is Avdviika currently

View attachment 965638
Explain to me how you can cut off ALL MAIN ROAD without full encirclement.

On the other hand, if you can use Artillery to "Control" MSR, you already had enough artillery to level the entire area, because you are virtually talking about the same thing, if they do, they won't be attacking it with a frontal assault......



Again, the issue is HOW, how do you know where the Ukrainian Artillery are located?

I don't know if you have ever used a drone before, you are literally looking at a picture of a narrow perspective and you can't have that kind of equipment fitted on a drone the size of TB 2 to provide RTS at 7000 meters (That's almost 30000 ft). You need a drone as large as RQ-4 that can mount a SAR like that (Which is 8 times the size). That is too big to fit in a drone 8m x 16m, set aside Orion does not have low LCS, they could be detected and taken out even before getting close to their Area of Operation.

Again, it's not that easy as you said, or again, they would have already done it....





You misunderstood my point, I am not talking about Air Defence move away, I was talking about Artillery or Armour or any mobile target can move away.

Air Defence are layered, as I said, you need to be able to take them all out at once and that operation is going to require a lot of air asset, which mean you a lot of Russian Air Asset will be shot down in order to take out Ukrainian Air Defnce Area-wise. Attrition is the issue with Air Defence, not the fact that they can move....

There are news that Coke plant south of Terricon started to be pushed by Russian forces as they already control the railway line. The map can change quiet a bit depending on the recent developments. As you said artillery control may require too much ammo. Russia needs to use artillery/mlrs launched mines over the main supply roads to mine that road from distance. Both anti personnel and anti armor mines need to be dropped from above. If Ukraine tries to demine the roads, Russian drone survaillance and artillery ammo can be used so artillery ammunition can be spared.


Tb-2 and Anka ucav FLIR system developed by Aselsan can laser paint targets from 27km range. I dont know the level of FLIR and laser target designators on Russian uavs. They need good optics to track targets from around 6k altitude that is for sure. The FLIR can distinguish and detect hot targets like artillery since their infrared signatures. No Sar is necessary to detect hot tanks and artillery but rwr is necessary for Orions to run away under enemy radar and alert other drones-aircraft to search for radars in that sector. Sar-imaging pod and Elint-pods are more expensive but they have more range that can be used to detect ad systems. They can be used by drones and aircraft flying above Russian controlled areas to get pictures and radio location data from longer ranges securely.

There is an older video here showing about 5800 m altitude targeting Russian D-30 artillery by Ukranian Tb-2 drones.

 
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Since UK is involved in this war and providing weapons to Ukraine (trying to help a friendly country whose lands are being stolen), Russia should attack UK.
What would that achieve? They've carved out a significant chunk off Ukraine for themselves and are currently holding territory pretty well.
 
There are news that Coke plant south of Terricon started to be pushed by Russian forces as they already control the railway line. The map can change quiet a bit depending on the recent developments. As you said artillery control may require too much ammo. Russia needs to use artillery/mlrs launched mines over the main supply roads to mine that road from distance. Both anti personnel and anti armor mines need to be dropped from above. If Ukraine tries to demine the roads, Russian drone survaillance and artillery ammo can be used so artillery ammunition can be spared.


Tb-2 and Anka ucav FLIR system developed by Aselsan can laser paint targets from 27km range. I dont know the level of FLIR and laser target designators on Russian uavs. They need good optics to track targets from around 6k altitude that is for sure. The FLIR can distinguish and detect hot targets like artillery since their infrared signatures. No Sar is necessary to detect hot tanks and artillery but rwr is necessary for Orions to run away under enemy radar and alert other drones-aircraft to search for radars in that sector. Sar-imaging pod and Elint-pods are more expensive but they have more range that can be used to detect ad systems. They can be used by drones and aircraft from Russian controlled areas to get pictures and radio location data.

There is an older video here showing about 5800 m altitude targeting Russian D-30 artillery by Ukranian Tb-2 drones.

You waste your time with this so called military expert, he predicted that summer offensive in ukraine will crush russians and talked lot of shit about their reserves, punches, breaktroughs and such, probably tom clancy reader and enthusiast.
You throw pearls in front of him, he just want arguing for the sake of arguing.
 
What a twisted logic, so you support a murder and robber and rapist only since you don't like an unknown and innocent neighbour who is supported by one "who's hypocrisy and hubris has become unbearable!" I hope for you that not you will have one day such a murder and robber and rapist in your neighbourhood
You have no qualms about supporting Israel. You're the last one to be doing the judging around here.
 
honestly it is irrelevant now, west piped it to the drain all that democracy legitimacy stuff with ongoing palestine collective punishment by them, so nobody cares about technicalities anymore and might is right is new measure of things.
it is sad situation but eventually it had to emerge in that direction due common law of physics, now russia is gaining moral upper hand and everything that follows it.
I appreciate an honest response when I see it. Nobody will question those who are providing conflict updates. People must have a certain level of Freedom of Expression.

But I see attempts to justify Russian aggression on moralistic grounds - this is absolutely ridiculous. Ukraine does not have a tyrannical regime like Saddam regime that is trying to impose its will in the region. Ukraine has Presidential system with Ukrainian nationals having constitutional right to elect a President to govern the country and make decisions in its best interests. Ukraine has peacefully co-existed with its neighbors.

Ukraine does have its political problems but it is up to Ukrainian nationals to settle these problems. Ukrainian youth was in favor of Ukraine having a partnership with European Union due to cultural and economic reasons but Russia had a problem with this deal. Russia offered 15 billion USD loan package to former Ukrainian President Yanukovych to sway him but Ukrainian youth was not impressed.



If you (figuratively speaking) have this much money to give to a country, it is better spent on your own. Protests in Ukraine grew in scale and acts of violence compelled Yanukovych to flee to Russia after Ukrainian Parliament declared him Persona Non Grata due to his mishandling of the situation and not respecting Public demands.




Yanukovych lost his position and appeal and fled to Russia. Russia acted on suggestions of this bhagora to orchestrate a separatist movement in Donbas and other sectors where pro-Russian sentiments supposedly existed but no country finds separatism acceptable.

I look at all developments fairly. Russia faced a separatist movment in Chechnya and moved to contain it. Russian intervention in Chechnya was violent and destructive but Russia had legitimate grounds in this case. Even though Chechnya has Islamic orientation and many Muslims sympathesized with Chechens at the time.

But rules are different for the weak and vulnerable?
Georgia in 2008?
Ukraine since 2014?

Ukraine gravitating towards Russia on its own accord is understandable much like Belarus. But Russia trying to impose its will on Ukraine is not right or a moralistic move.

When they are told, “Do not spread corruption in the land,” they reply, “We are only peace-makers!” - Surah Al-Bakra (verse 11)

Russia might issue statements in favor of Palestine but it also recognize Israel and will work with Israel if has something to gain from this bilateral relationship. This is how things are between countries in general.

Muslims should know better honestly. You do not have to partake in Russia - Ukraine War, if this is a concern. But a good Muslim understands what is right and what is wrong.

Those who are rooting for Russians instead of respecting their host country positions, your identity is tied to your host country in the end. British nationals in particular. If Russia ever had a chance, it will try to impose its will on UK as well. This would be a sight to behold - most amusing in fact.

Express your views (one can agree with Russian positions as well), but don't go overboard and become a fool. I am surprised to see some mentalities here.
 

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